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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. May 2020.

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We help companies to be successful in Mexico & Latam via highly personalized and cost-effective consulting services. Areas of expertise include interim management, CFO/controller roles, special audits, fraud investigations, anti-corruption initiatives, internal control assessments, financial reporting, project management, risk management, strategic planning, financial transformations and turnarounds. On the commercial side, public relations, business development, contract negotiations, communications, social media, and design and execution of commercial strategy.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. May 2020.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE May 2020 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. LATIN AMERICA NOT THE HARDEST HIT Source: San Francisco Chronicle, May 15th 2020
  3. 3. HOWEVER, ECONOMIC FALLOUT WILL BE TOUGH
  4. 4. IN MEXICO, PRESSURE ON PEMEX IS MOUNTING
  5. 5. THINGS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR TOURISM
  6. 6. US-CHINA TENSIONS CONTINUE
  7. 7. RACE FOR A VACCINE IS ACCELERATING
  8. 8. MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE READY IN RECORD TIME
  9. 9. CHANGE WILL BE COMING ON ALL FRONTS
  10. 10. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  11. 11. OUR VALUE PROPOSITION: ü Highly experienced consultants. ü High degree of flexibility. ü Ideal to tackle those important but not urgent tasks that otherwise never get done. ü Able to support in the resolution of special or confidential projects. ü Important specialization in Finance and Accounting projects. ü More than 50 multidisciplinary consultants. Average of 15 to 20 years of professional experience. We are Nuricumbo + Partners
  12. 12. SOME EXAMPLES: ü Interim C-Level Executives. ü Financial Due Diligence for M&A. ü Part-Time CFOs. ü Comisarios / Consejeros. ü Interim Project Teams. ü Specialized Training Programs. ü Debt/Equity Solutions. ü Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos) ü Process Improvement ü Special Audits (Forensic, Compliance, etc.) How do we help some of our clients
  13. 13. More Information: contacto@nuricumbo.com / www.nuricumbo.com First-hand knowledge of business environment Our business DNA is Mexico. Our Firm has extensive experience working with multionationals and local companies all across the country. 40+ 1 20+ Translators of local language and culture We can facilitate productive cooperation between parent and subsidiary. We understand corporate requirements as well as local business practices. We can be your eyes and ears in the field Taking the correct business decisions is never easy. We can provide you with the business intelligence you need to be successful in Mexico. ROME Do you need support with your operations in Mexico? Mexic City Multi-disciplinary consultants Average years of work experience Objective: Supporting your Company What can we do for your company - Interim Management - Fraud Investigations - Financial Due Diligence - Business Process Outsourcing - Debt/Equity Solutions - Trust Management - Tax Advice - Special Audits
  14. 14. TAX INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT ENSURE ADEQUATE COMPLIANCE WITH MEXICO’S COMPLEX TAX FRAMEWORK We have a talented team of tax and audit consultants, with Big-4 heritage, and strong experience in tax projects in Mexico. Our focus: 1. Independent review of tax records. 2. Reconciliation CFDIs versus Accounting. 3. Identification of contingencies and exposures. We have the right team for your specific needs. OUR VALUE PROPOSITION Our service allows your organization to proactively identify risks and opportunities, prepare more effectively for your annual audit and tax process, identify and correct deviations on a timely manner, and reduce the risk of tax surprises at year-end.
  15. 15. Complete Profiles Armando NuricumboRodrigo Llanos Miguel Amador Guillermo Lagos Former CFOFormer Investment Banking Former Controller / Auditor Former CEO Jesus Bush PWC. IPG. Bombardier. RGP. 25 years of experience. Valmex. Inverlat. Arka. 35 years of experience. Whirlpool. Banco Azteca. 35 years of experience. EY. Smurfit. Maxcom. Devlyn. 30 years of experience. 3M. Imperial Chemical. IMEF 30 years of experience. Examples of our consulting talent Alejandro Rico Tax Partner KPMG. Confies. 25 years of experience. Jose Trevino Former NAFTA Negotiator Colmex. Comce. Cancham. 35 years of experience. Angel Hernandez Former CFO Ingram. Dresser. TRW. 35 years of experience. Roberto Fernandez Former CIO AT&T Capital. CIT. Alta. 30 years of experience. Enrique Ugarte Former VP ProMexico. CCE. Edomex. 35 years of experience. Former CIO Marisol Baca Former VP Administration CFE. BID. Real Financiera. 25 years of experience. José A. Ventura Former CFO PWC. Truper. BristolMyers. 30 years of experience.
  16. 16. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  17. 17. $4.47 $5.21 $5.49 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 $6.00 February March April Brazil Exchange Rates $3,524.13 $4,065.37 $3,963.61 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 February March April Colombia $19.64 $23.67 $24.17 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 February March April Mexico $3.45 $3.43 $3.38 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 February March April Peru Source: Bloomberg, 2020. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $820.93 $853.79 $835.53 $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 February March April Chile *USD / CLP $62.21 $64.40 $66.83 $0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 February March April Argentina *USD / ARS
  18. 18. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020. 52.90% 50.30% 48.40% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% January February March Argentina Inflation Rate 3.92% 3.31% 2.40% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% February March April Brazil 3.72% 3.86% 3.51% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% February March April Colombia 3.90% 3.70% 3.40% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% February March April Chile 3.70% 3.25% 2.15% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% February March April Mexico 1.90% 1.82% 1.87% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% February March April Peru
  19. 19. $44,832 $43,724 $43,545 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 February March April Argentina International Reserves $356,884 $359,394 $362,460 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 January February March Brazil $53,676 $53,337 $53,863 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 February March April Colombia $36,154 $37,952 $36,861 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 February March April Chile $184,250 $185,509 $186,655 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 February March April Mexico $67,611 $68,022 $73,632 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 February March April Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020.
  20. 20. 34,973.18 24,384.24 32,742.84 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 February March April Argentina Capital Markets 104,171.60 73,019.80 80,505.90 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 February March April Brazil 1,549.61 1,123.85 1,142.04 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Feburary March April Colombia 18,264.30 14,463.96 14,779.28 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 Feburary March April Peru 41,324.31 34,554.53 36,470.11 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 February March April Mexico 4,122.63 3,487.49 3,977.56 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 February March April Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Bloomberg, 2020.
  21. 21. Foreign Direct Investmet $3,260 $11,517 12162 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2016 2017 2018 Argentina $52,751 $67,583 $61,223 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2016 2017 2018 Brazil $13,850 $13,836 $11,010 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 2016 2017 2018 Colombia $11,942 $6,856 $7,160 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2016 2017 2018 Chile $30,865 $32,091 $31,604 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 2016 2017 2018 Mexico $6,863 $6,769 $6,175 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 2016 2017 2018 Peru *U.S. Dollars at Current Prices in Millions Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD, 2018. $12,162
  22. 22. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  23. 23. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  24. 24. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.7% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Annual Percentage
  25. 25. Total Population 44,494.5 209,469.3 49,648.7 18,729.2 126,190.8 31,989.3 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  26. 26. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  27. 27. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.0% 4.4% 4.1% 0.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  28. 28. Exports of Goods and Services 14.3% 14.8% 15.9% 28.8% 39.3% 25.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of GDP
  29. 29. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Argentina BrazilColom bia Chile M exico Peru 11,872 78,162 11,535 6,082 37,495 6,487 Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  30. 30. Gross Domestic Product $519,871.5 $1,868,626.1 $331,047.0 $298,231.1 $1,220,699.5 $222,045.0 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Millions, Current US$
  31. 31. GDP Per Capita $20,610.6 $16,096.4 $15,012.9 $25,222.5 $19,844.6 $14,418.1 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current US$
  32. 32. Inflation 3.7% 3.5% 2.6% 3.6% 2.1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: (i) Consumer Prices; (ii) Annual Percentage * Data not officially available for Argentina at the World Bank website. Other sources estimate anual inflation rate at around 54%.
  33. 33. GDP Growth -2.5% 1.1% 2.6% 4.0% 2.1% 4.0% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Annual Percentage
  34. 34. Gross Savings 15% 14% 15% 20% 24% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of GDP
  35. 35. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colom bia Chile M exico Peru $515.9 $2,933.5 $6,364.3 $66.1 $35,768.4 $3,224.8 Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  36. 36. Total Reserves $66,221.5 $374,709.7 $47,887.6 $39,858.8 $176,390.3 $60,333.2 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  37. 37. Revenue 19% 27% 23% 22% 19% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  38. 38. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.2% 4.5% 5.4% 4.9% 3.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015 - 2017. Note: Percentage of GDP
  39. 39. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2019. 20,434.1 106,328.7 27,249.2 9,533.1 57,558.6 18,818.4 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  40. 40. Labor Force (Female) 42.0% 43.4% 43.2% 41.8% 37.2% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  41. 41. Unemployment 10.0% 12.2% 9.2% 7.4% 3.4% 2.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  42. 42. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  43. 43. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  44. 44. Population Living in Slums 17% 22% 13% 9% 11% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2005 - 2014. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  45. 45. External Debt Stocks 56.1% 30.3% 42.3% 38.0% 31.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of GNI
  46. 46. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 11.0% 10.1% 16.6% 8.4% 10.7% 12.5% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage
  47. 47. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 3.1% 3.1% 4.4% 1.9% 2.1% 3.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage
  48. 48. Deposit Interest Rate 25.1% 6.9% 4.7% 2.7% 3.3% 2.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2016 - 2018. Note: Percentage
  49. 49. Lending Interest Rate 37.4% 39.1% 12.1% 4.2% 8.1% 16.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2016 - 2018. Note: Percentage
  50. 50. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2018. 93 334 66 205 140 211 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  51. 51. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $45,986.05 $916,824.39 $103,848.38 $250,739.56 $385,051.43 $93,385.36 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  52. 52. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  53. 53. Military Expenditure 2.1% 3.9% 11.6% 7.4% 2.1% 5.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  54. 54. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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