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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. October 2020.

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Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. October 2020.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE October 2020 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. Minorities identify more with Democrats
  3. 3. European nations are definitely with Biden on this one
  4. 4. Pennsylvania and Florida will be crucial to win
  5. 5. Management of the pandemic was already a problem for Trump
  6. 6. And his coronavirus diagnosis only made it worst
  7. 7. Battleground states not looking good for Republicans
  8. 8. Although the only poll that matters will be the vote in November
  9. 9. No matter what, change is always hard
  10. 10. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  11. 11. OUR VALUE PROPOSITION:  Highly experienced consultants.  High degree of flexibility.  Ideal to tackle those important but not urgent tasks that otherwise never get done.  Able to support in the resolution of special or confidential projects.  Important specialization in Finance and Accounting projects.  More than 50 multidisciplinary consultants. Average of 15 to 20 years of professional experience. We are Nuricumbo + Partners
  12. 12. SOME EXAMPLES:  Interim C-Level Executives.  Financial Due Diligence for M&A.  Part-Time CFOs.  Comisarios / Consejeros.  Interim Project Teams.  Specialized Training Programs.  Debt/Equity Solutions.  Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos)  Process Improvement  Special Audits (Forensic, Compliance, etc.) How do we help some of our clients
  13. 13. Due Diligence Financiero (M&A) OWNED METHODOLOGY · HIGHLY QUALIFIED TEAM  Multidisciplinary team expert in financial and opetarional issues.  Our consultants have a profile type BIG4/ Big Consulting.  Top Management point of viiew with viable recommendations and high added value.  It allows to prevent risks and take mitigation actions on time.  Highly flexible and personalized service. Would you like to know everything about the business you are about to buy? SYSTEMS· PROCESSES · PEOPLE OBSERVATIONS INTERVIEWS RECOMMENDATIONS IMPLEMENTATION
  14. 14. More Information: contacto@nuricumbo.com / www.nuricumbo.com First-hand knowledge of business environment Our business DNA is Mexico. Our Firm has extensive experience working with multionationals and local companies all across the country. 40+ 1 20+ Translators of local language and culture We can facilitate productive cooperation between parent and subsidiary. We understand corporate requirements as well as local business practices. We can be your eyes and ears in the field Taking the correct business decisions is never easy. We can provide you with the business intelligence you need to be successful in Mexico. ROME Do you need support with your operations in Mexico? Mexic City Multi-disciplinary consultants Average years of work experience Objective: Supporting your Company What can we do for your company - Interim Management - Fraud Investigations - Financial Due Diligence - Business Process Outsourcing - Debt/Equity Solutions - Trust Management - Tax Advice - Special Audits
  15. 15. Complete Profiles Armando NuricumboRodrigo Llanos Miguel Amador Guillermo Lagos Former CFOFormer Investment Banking Former Controller / Auditor Former CEO Jesus Bush PWC. IPG. Bombardier. RGP. 25 years of experience. Valmex. Inverlat. Arka. 35 years of experience. Whirlpool. Banco Azteca. 35 years of experience. EY. Smurfit. Maxcom. Devlyn. 30 years of experience. 3M. Imperial Chemical. IMEF 30 years of experience. Some of our talented consultants Alejandro Rico Tax Partner KPMG. Confies. 25 years of experience. Jose Trevino Former NAFTA Negotiator Colmex. Comce. Cancham. 35 years of experience. Angel Hernandez Former CFO Ingram. Dresser. TRW. 35 years of experience. Roberto Fernandez Former CIO AT&T Capital. CIT. Alta. 30 years of experience. Enrique Ugarte Former VP ProMexico. CCE. Edomex. 35 years of experience. Former CIO Marisol Baca Former VP Administration CFE. BID. Real Financiera. 25 years of experience. José A. Ventura Former CFO PWC. Truper. BristolMyers. 30 years of experience.
  16. 16. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  17. 17. $5.22 $5.49 $5.50 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 $6.00 July August September Brazil Exchange Rates $3,732.71 $3,741.04 $3,828.40 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 July August September Colombia $22.28 $21.89 $22.11 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 July August September Mexico $3.53 $3.54 $3.60 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 July August September Peru Source: Bloomberg, 2020. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 July August September Chile *USD / CLP $72.32 $74.18 $76.18 $0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 July August September Argentina *USD / ARS
  18. 18. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020. 42.80% 42.40% 40.70% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% June July August Argentina Inflation Rate 2.44% 2.67% 3.14% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% July August September Brazil 1.97% 1.88% 1.97% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% July August September Colombia 2.50% 2.40% 3.10% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% July August September Chile 3.62% 4.05% 4.01% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% July August September Mexico 1.86% 1.69% 1.82% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% July August September Peru
  19. 19. $43,374 $42,842 $41,132 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 July August September Argentina International Reserves $345,706 $348,781 $356,606 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 June July August Brazil $56,972 $57,185 $57,185 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 July August September Colombia $36,851 $37,783 $37,821 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 July August September Chile $197,891 $193,267 $193,992 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 July August September Mexico $74,336 $74,668 $72,354 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 July August September Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2020.
  20. 20. 49,253.62 46,835.42 41,260.86 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 July August September Argentina Capital Markets 102,912.20 99,369.20 94,603.40 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 July August September Brazil 1,134.34 1,216.03 1,171.92 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 July August September Colombia 17,512.53 18,576.89 17,948.78 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 July August September Peru 37,019.68 36,840.73 37,458.69 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 July August September Mexico 4,017.08 3,767.15 3,637.30 0 1,200 2,400 3,600 4,800 July August September Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Bloomberg, 2020.
  21. 21. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,244.42 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $78,559 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,493 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $12,135 $5,852 $6,082 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2016 2017 2018 Chile $32,977 $38,644 $28,881 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,739 $6,860 $6,487 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 2016 2017 2018 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  22. 22. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (10 September 2020) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2020 Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (5 May 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (1 April 2020) Chile A- With NEGATIVE Outlook (12 March 2020) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (15 April 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (3 June 2020)
  23. 23. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (28 Sept 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2020. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (15 May 2020) Colombia Baa2 With STABLE Outlook (23 May 2019) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (25 August 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (17 April 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (25 Jun 2019)
  24. 24. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (7 September 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2020. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (6 April 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (26 March 2020) Chile A+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (27 April 2020) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (26 March 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (4 May 2020)
  25. 25. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: 2 April 1959 In office since: 10 December 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: 21 March 1955 In office since: 1 January 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Iván Duque Márquez Birth: 1 Agosto 1976 In office since: 7 Agosto 2018 Political Party: Centro Democrático Chile President: Sebastián Piñera E. Birth: 1 December 1949 In office since: 11 March 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andrés Manuel López O. Birth: 13 November 1953 In office since: 1 December 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Martín Vizcarra Birth: 22 Marzo 1963 In office since: 23 March 2018 Political Party: Peruanos por el Kambio
  26. 26. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  27. 27. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  28. 28. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  29. 29. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  30. 30. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  31. 31. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.3% 4.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2018. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  32. 32. Exports of Goods and Services 17.3% 14.3% 15.9% 28.2% 39.1% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  33. 33. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 6,244 78,559 14,493 6,082 28,881 6,487 Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  34. 34. Gross Domestic Product $449,663.5 $1,839,758.0 $323,802.8 $282,318.2 $1,258,286.7 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  35. 35. GDP Per Capita $22,947.1 $15,258.9 $15,643.7 $25,155.0 $20,410.7 $13,380.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  36. 36. GDP Growth -2.2% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  37. 37. Gross Savings 16.7% 12.2% 15.5% 18.6% 22.9% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  38. 38. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 $535.2 $3,295.5 $6,769.9 $65.7 $38,628.6 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  39. 39. Total Reserves $45,215.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  40. 40. Revenue 17.9% 29.1% 21.5% 22.0% 18.9% 19.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  41. 41. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  42. 42. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 20,977.4 107,371.8 27,271.1 9,692.0 58,004.3 19,356.0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  43. 43. Labor Force (Female) 42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 42.2% 37.8% 45.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  44. 44. Unemployment 10.4% 12.0% 9.7% 7.1% 3.7% 3.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  45. 45. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  46. 46. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  47. 47. Population Living in Slums 17% 22% 13% 9% 11% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2005 - 2014. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  48. 48. External Debt Stocks 56.1% 30.3% 42.3% 38.0% 31.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of GNI
  49. 49. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  50. 50. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  51. 51. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  52. 52. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  53. 53. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  54. 54. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  55. 55. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  56. 56. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  57. 57. WHAT WE THINK Fear and Euphoria The Lebanese Mirror How is a pension system like a dinosaur? Zombieland Welcome USMCA. Now what? The New Battlefield Reinvention Process The Double Valley of Death OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Willingness to Pay & Value Stick James Francum – Perspective from Germany Juan Carlos García: Perspectivas 2020 Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer Antonio Prida: Mediación Max Zimmermann: Relación con Inversionistas Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Interview with Ana Maria Salazar (ADN40) Entrevista con el Embajador de España en México Entrevista con Pedro Ferriz de Con – I Entrevista con Pedro Ferriz de Con - II Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  58. 58. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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