Mexico Political Update May 2012 Nuricumbo + PartnersAudit • Finance • Risk • Strategy • Business Development
Outline1 General Overview2 Political Parties and Coalitions3 Statistics and Preference Polls4 Contact
General Overview Political Organization Mexico is a Representative Democratic Republic conformed by 32 Autonomous States (31 States and one Federal District). • Both the Federation and the States adjust to the model for the division of powers and separation of functions, divided into Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Branch.Source: Electoral Federal Institute, 2012
General Overview Political Organization • The Executive Branch is conformed by the President, elected by vote for a period of 6 years. Under no circumstance the President may be re-elected. • The Legislative Branch is vested upon the Union Congress, formed by a Lower Chamber of 500 deputies and an Upper Chamber conformed by 128 senators. • The Judicial Branch is vested upon the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation, made up by eleven ministers elected by the vote of two thirds of the Upper Chamber members. • Elections must be carried out through universal, free, secret and direct voting.Source: Electoral Federal Institute, 2012
General Overview Countrywide Nominated Positions: 2,127 • President Agenda 2011 - 2012 Federal Pre- • 500 Federal Deputies Dec 18th – Feb 15th campaign • 128 Federal Senators Federal Inter Feb 16th – Mar 29th • 7 State Governors Campaign Federal • 579 Local Deputies Mar 30th – Jun 27th Campaign • 876 Councils Elections July 1st • 16 Delegation Councils (Mexico City) President: Dec 1st • 20 Municipal Boards Entry Others: Sept 1st Election Date: July 1st, 2012Source: Electoral Federal Institute, 2012
Political Parties and Coalitions Election 2012: Parties and Coalitions’ Current Situation Political Position: Center • Deputies: 141 / 500 National Action Party • Senators: 50 / 128 • Governors: 9 / 32 (3 PRD Coalition) Political Position: Center Right • Deputies: 261 / 500 Compromise for Mexico • Senators: 41 / 128 • Governors: 20 / 32 Political Position: Left Progressive • Deputies: 90 / 500 Movement • Senators: 33 / 128 • Governors: 6 / 32 (3 PAN Coalition) Political Position: Center • Deputies: 7 / 500 New Alliance Party • Senators: 0 / 128 • Governors: 0 / 32Source: Senate of the Republic, 2012; Deputies Chamber, 2012; Newspaper “El Universal”, 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Political Map April 2012 Institutional Revolutionary Party National Action Party Democratic Revolution Party Others - Governor Election -Source: www.eleccion2012mexico.com, 2012 and Newspaper “El Universal” 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Presidential Candidates Josefina Vazquez Mota • Book: Our Opportunity: a • Party: National Action Party Mexico for Everyone, 2011. • Education: Economy / Institutional Studies • Website: josefina.mx/ • Former Position: Minister of Education Enrique Peña Nieto • Book: Mexico, the Great • Party: Institutional Revolutionary Party Hope, 2011. • Education: Law / MBA • Website: • Former Position: Governor of State of Mexico www.enriquepenanieto.com/ Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador • Book: The Mafia that took • Party: Democratic Revolution Party over Mexico (2010). • Education: Political Science • Website: http://www.amlo.si/ • Former Position: Governor of Federal District Gabriel Quadri De la Torre • Book: Public Policies: • Party: New Alliance Sustainability and Environment • Education: Civil Engineering / Master in Economy • Website: www.nueva- • Former Position: General Manager Ecosecurities alianza.org.mx/Source: Newspaper “El Universal” 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Proposals: National Action Party Pillar 1: Security Pillar 2: Welfare • Guarantee the rule of law • Construction of 1,500 high schools and 150 universities. • Integral security through prevention, control and punishment. • Increase from 8 to 16 million scholarships •Modernization of the army forces • Ensure 1% of GDP for Science and Technology. • Reinforcement of health and educative services. • Creation of the Ministry of Culture • Increase of Federal Police up to 150,000 • Construction of more hospitals elements. countrywide.Source: josefina.mx/, 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Proposals: National Action Party Pillar 3: Productivity Pillar 4: A Better Mexico • Development of Balanced budget policies • Treatment for 100% of waste water • Realistic and actual Labor Reform • Boost of wind energy sources • Development of new Technological-base • Reinforcement of the US – Mexican bilateral incubators. relation. • Boost the credit for Micro and Small-sized • New incentives for green technologies and Companies. environmental conservation. • Minority and selective private investment in • Defend the rights and interests of Mexicans PEMEX (National Oil Company). abroad.Source: josefina.mx/, 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Compromises: Compromise for Mexico Coalition 1. Recovery of Peace and Freedom • Reduce kidnapping and homicides to 50%, reducing extortions and trafficking; develop a National Strategy to reduce violence. 2. An Inclusive Mexico without Poverty • Set conditions to allow 15 million people to overcome poverty and the disappearance of food poverty; guarantee women, indigenous and disabled people’s rights. 3. More and Better Jobs • Triple the economic growth of the last decade and create more than one million jobs per year; increase investment in infrastructure.Source: http://www.enriquepenanieto.com, 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Compromises: Compromise for Mexico Coalition 4. Quality Education for Everyone • Offer more and qualified education for everyone, reaching an universal cover from kindergarten to high-school level; at least, cover 45% of higher education; and being the 1st place of the PISA standard (Program for International Student Assessment) in Latin America. 5. Recovery of the Mexican Leadership in the World • Consolidate Mexico as emerging power and contribute in the solution of global problems, such as climate change or drugs, people and weapon trafficking. 6. Efficient Government • Offer certainty and results to the people in order to achieve the mentioned compromises.Source: http://www.enriquepenanieto.com, 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Proposals: Progressive Movement 1. Promote the Revolution of Conscience and a Critical Thinking • Recover the sense of community; restore political ethics through the regulation of wages; boost an Integral Human Rights Vision without hierarchies; defend cultural diversification. 2. Orient the State to serve the People • Develop of the productive capacity; increase resources for education, health, housing, environment and social affairs; renegotiate the external debt; set up a new federalism. 3. Democratization of the Media • Create autonomous institutions aimed to regulate radio and TV broadcasting; promote the creation of cultural and educative shows; guarantee Internet access as information right.Source: http://www.amlo.si/ 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Proposals: Progressive Movement 4. Create a New Economy • Labor protection and promote formal jobs; fight extortion; promote democracy at the Unions; promote the insertion of young people into the labor market. 5. Fight Monopolies • Promote Law reforms (Economic Federal Law); promote competitive pricing; create specialized court houses; broaden the training for judges. 6. Fight Corruption • Reduce salary of Government officials; impose the accountability of Government officials; remove additional cash bonus of Government officials; fight bravery.Source: http://www.amlo.si/ 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Proposals: New Alliance 1. Quality and Equity of Education • Reduce the educative lag and increase schooling levels; decrease inequalities among regions and social groups; increase educative quality; strengthen scientific / technological research. 2. Labor Opportunities • Promote economic expansion and jobs creation; broaden labor offer; facilitate the access to labor market and fight informality; broaden social and economic benefits. 3. The Family as the Central Axis of Society • Promote conditions that facilitate coexistence between groups and persons; promote values such as respect, tolerance, solidarity; promote actions that benefit single mothers.Source: www.nueva-alianza.org.mx/ 2012.
Political Parties and Coalitions Main Proposals: New Alliance 4. Equality and Dignity • Promote the access for all people to alimentation, health and education; fight violence; promote respect to Human Rights; promote the development of indigenous communities. 5. Defend the Environment • Promote actions intended to the restoration of damaged ecosystems; promote actions that allow economic growth and jobs creation without harming the environment.Source: www.nueva-alianza.org.mx/ 2012.
Statistics and Preference Polls Percentual Budget per Party Monetary Budget per Party $32,168,433.46 7% 27% 25% $52,538,959.12 $33,843,516.27 $8,716,067.32 Total $127,266,976.20 41% Note: USD Exchange Rate: $13.20 pesos / USDSource: Electoral Federal Institute, 2012
Statistics and Preference Polls Foreign Voters Media: Broadcast Monitoring Percentage of time broadcasted in 45,478 Radio and TV per Candidate 2,806 35% 30% 2,345 30% 28% 24% 25% 1,421 20% 18% 15% 1,372 10% 5% Total Registered Voters 0% Registered Voters 84,610,389 Foreign Voters 59,044 Period: March 30th – May 20th, 2012Source: Electoral Federal Institute, 2012
Statistics and Preference Polls Voters’ Preference Poll Compromise for Mexico Compromise for Mexico May 27.6% May 49.1% Apr 22.9% Apr 54.3% Mar 28.1% Mar 50.5% Progressive Movement New Alliance Party May 21.9% May 1.4% Apr 21.4% Apr 1.4% Mar 20.1% Mar 1.3%Question: If today were the Presidential Election, which candidate would you vote for?Source: Newspaper “El Universal”, May 14th 2012.
Statistics and Preference Polls Fist Presidential Debate Results The first Presidential Debate among the 4 candidates was broadcasted nationally at the beginning of May through non-principal open channels. The candidates presented their main proposals based on a previous draw defined by the Electoral Federal Institute. Some candidates preferred to attack the PRI – PVEM candidate (the one with the highest share according to preferential polls) rather than present their own proposals. The second debate will hold a different scheme, allowing candidates move before the cameras and show relevant printed materials , among other improvements.Source: Univision Noticias, 2012.