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Encuesta Global de Resiliencia de Negocios. Global Business Resilience Survey. Nuricumbo + Partners. Jun 2020

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COMPRENDER LA PROBLEMÁTICA DEL SECTOR EMPRESARIAL DENTRO Y FUERA DE MEXICO ANTE LA PANDEMIA COVID-19. IDENTIFICAR PRINCIPALES TENDENCIAS, ASÍ COMO RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES.

TO UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEMS OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR IN AND OUTSIDE MEXICO CAUSED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. IDENTIFY THE MAIN TRENDS, RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES.

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Encuesta Global de Resiliencia de Negocios. Global Business Resilience Survey. Nuricumbo + Partners. Jun 2020

  1. 1. ENCUESTA GLOBAL DE RESILIENCIA DE NEGOCIOS BUSINESS RESILIENCE GLOBAL SURVEY NURICUMBO + PARTNERS JUNIO / JUNE 2020
  2. 2. OBJETIVO COMPRENDER LA PROBLEMÁTICA DEL SECTOR EMPRESARIAL DENTRO Y FUERA DE MEXICO ANTE LA PANDEMIA COVID-19. IDENTIFICAR PRINCIPALES TENDENCIAS, ASÍ COMO RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES. NÚMERO DE EMPRESAS QUE CONTESTARON LA ENCUESTA 372 SEGMENTACIÓN POR TAMAÑO DE EMPRESA 61% PEQUEÑO 26% MEDIANO 13% GRANDE PERFIL DE LA ENCUESTA SURVEY PROFILE OBJECTIVE TO UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEMS OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR IN AND OUTSIDE MEXICO CAUSED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. IDENTIFY THE MAIN TRENDS, RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES. NUMBER OF COMPANIES THAT RESPONDED THE SURVEY 372 SEGMENTATION BY COMPANY SIZE 61% SMALL 26% MEDIUM 13% LARGE
  3. 3. EN DÓNDE OPERAN LAS EMPRESAS QUE CONTESTARON LA ENCUESTA 73% NORTE, CENTRO Y SUDAMÉRICA 15% OPERACIONES GLOBALES 9% SOLO MÉXICO 1% EUROPA 1% ASIA 1% AFRICA SECTORES ECONÓMICOS 27% SERVICIOS 12% MANUFACTURA 9% FINANCIERO 9% TECNOLOGÍAS DE LA INFORMACIÓN 8% BIENES RAICES 8% EDUCACIÓN 7% TURISMO 5% ENERGÍA 5% AGRICULTURA 10% OTROS PERFIL DE LA ENCUESTA SURVEY PROFILE WHERE DO THE COMPANIES THAT RESPONDED OUR SURVEY OPERATE 73% AMERICAS 15% GLOBAL OPERATIONS 9% MEXICO ONLY 1% EUROPE 1% ASIA 1% AFRICA ECONOMIC SECTORS 27% SERVICES 12% MANUFACTURING 9% FINANCIAL 9% INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 8% REAL ESTATE 8% EDUCATION 7% TOURISM 5% ENERGY 5% AGRICULTURE 10% OTHER
  4. 4. RESUMEN EN EL MES DE JUNIO DE 2020 OBSERVAMOS: ü UNA LIGERA MEJORÍA EN LAS CONDICIONES DE NEGOCIO COMPARADO CON EL MES ANTERIOR, PROBABLEMENTE VINCULADO A LA REAPERTURA GRADUAL DE LA ECONOMÍA. ü SIN EMBARGO, LAS EMPRESAS ENCUESTADAS VEN MUCHOS MÁS RIESGOS QUE OPORTUNIDADES EN LA COYUNTURA ACTUAL. ü FALTA DE LIQUIDEZ Y FALTA DE DEMANDA CONTINUAN SIENDO LOS RIESGOS MÁS IMPORTANTES. ü LA MAYORÍA DE LAS EMPRESAS ENCUESTADAS ESPERA UN REGRESO A LA NORMALIDAD QUE VA A TARDAR MÁS DE 1 AÑO. ü LIGERO DESCENSO EN EL APETITO DE RIESGO PARA ENTRAR EN FUSIONES, ADQUISICIONES, O ALIANZAS ESTRATÉGICAS. ü EL DESEMPEÑO DE LAS AUTORIDADES GUBERNAMENTALES SE SIGUE PERCIBIENDO COMO NEGATIVO. ü ENTRADA EN VIGOR DEL TMEC APARECE COMO UNO DE LOS POCOS FACTORES REPORTADOS DE OPTIMISMO. ü EN GENERAL, LAS EMPRESAS OBSERVAN UN AMBIENTE DE INCERTIDUMBRE Y FALTA DE CONFIANZA GENERADO POR LA PANDEMIA COVID-19, POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS CONTRADICTORIAS, Y UNA CRISIS ECONÓMICA PROFUNDA Y QUE PARECE INMINENTE. SUMMARY IN THE MONTH OF JUNE 2020 WE OBSERVE: ü A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH, PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE GRADUAL REOPENING OF THE ECONOMY. ü HOWEVER, SURVEYED COMPANIES SEE MANY MORE RISKS THAN OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CURRENT SITUATION. ü LACK OF LIQUIDITY AND LACK OF DEMAND CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT RISKS. ü MOST OF THE SURVEYED COMPANIES EXPECT A RETURN TO NORMALITY THAT WILL TAKE MORE THAN 1 YEAR. ü SLIGHT DECREASE IN RISK APPETITE TO ENTER INTO MERGERS, ACQUISITIONS, OR JOINT VENTURES. ü THE PERFORMANCE OF GOVERNMENT AUTHORITIES IS STILL PERCEIVED AS NEGATIVE. ü ENTRY INTO FORCE OF USMCA IS ONE OF THE FEW POSITIVE REPORTED ASPECTS. ü IN GENERAL, COMPANIES OBSERVE AN ENVIRONMENT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE GENERATED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, CONTRADICTORY PUBLIC POLICIES, AND A SEEMINGLY DEEP AND IMMINENT ECONOMIC CRISIS. RESUMEN DE LOS PRINCIPALES HALLAZGOS SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS
  5. 5. 1. 63% de las empresas encuestadas encuentran las condiciones ACTUALES de negocio como MALAS o MUY MALAS. Este indicador permaneció sin cambio comparado con el mes anterior. 2. 60% de las empresas encuestadas encuentran las condiciones de los PRÓXIMOS 6 a 12 MESES como MALAS o MUY MALAS. Este indicador mejoró, pasando de 63% en el mes anterior. 3. 53% de las empresas encuestadas reportan condiciones de negocio PEORES que el mes anterior. Este indicador mejoró, pasando de 57% en el mes anterior. PRINCIPALES HALLAZGOS MAIN FINDINGS 1. 63% of surveyed companies find the CURRENT business conditions as BAD or VERY BAD. This indicator remained unchanged compared to the previous month. 2. 60% of surveyed companies find the conditions of the NEXT 6 TO 12 MONTHS as BAD or VERY BAD. This indicator improved, moving from 63% in the previous month. 3. 53% of surveyed companies report WORSE business conditions than the previous month. This indicator improved, moving from 57% in the previous month.
  6. 6. 4. 18% de las empresas encuestadas reportan condiciones de negocio MEJORES que el mes anterior. Este indicador mejoró, pasando de 11% en el mes anterior. 5. Tres principales riesgos reportados por las empresas encuestadas: A. Falta de liquidez B. Falta de demanda C. Disrupción en cadenas de suministro 6. Tres principales oportunidades reportadas por las empresas encuestadas : A. Nuevos Mercados / Nuevos Productos B. Menor Competencia a Causa de la Crisis C. Trabajo Remoto / Home Office PRINCIPALES HALLAZGOS MAIN FINDINGS 4. 18% of surveyed companies report BETTER business conditions than the previous month. This indicator improved, moving from 11% in the previous month. 5. Three main risks reported by surveyed companies: A. Lack of liquidity B. Lack of demand C. Disruption in supply chains 6. Three main opportunities reported by surveyed companies: A. New Markets / New Products B. Less Competition Due to the Crisis C. Remote Work / Home Office
  7. 7. 7. 48% de las empresas encuestadas reportan que NO ESPERAN ENTRAR en ninguna transacción de M&A o Joint Venture en los próximos 6 a 12 meses. Este indicador empeoró, pasando de 43% en el mes anterior. 8. 31% de las empresas encuestadas reportan que SÍ ESPERAN ENTRAR en alguna transacción de M&A o Joint Venture en los próximos 6 a 12 meses. Este indicador empeoró, pasando de 39% en el mes anterior. 9. 21% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el regreso a la normalidad tardará MÁS DE DOS AÑOS. Este indicador empeoró ligeramente, pasando de 19% en el mes anterior. PRINCIPALES HALLAZGOS MAIN FINDINGS 7. 48% of surveyed companies report that they DO NOT EXPECT TO ENTER into any M&A or Joint Venture transaction in the next 6 to 12 months. This indicator worsened, moving from 43% in the previous month. 8. 31% of surveyed companies report that they DO EXPECT TO ENTER into some M&A or Joint Venture transaction in the next 6 to 12 months. This indicator worsened, moving from 39% in the previous month. 9. 21% of surveyed companies think that the return to normality will take MORE THAN TWO YEARS. This indicator worsened slightly, moving from 19% in the previous month.
  8. 8. 10. 42% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el regreso a la normalidad tardará ENTRE UNO Y DOS AÑOS. Este indicador empeoró, pasando de 39% en el mes anterior. 11. 31% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el regreso a la normalidad tardará de 6 a 12 MESES. Este indicador empeoró ligeramente, pasando de 33% en el mes anterior. 12. 84% de las empresas encuestadas piensan que el desempeño de las autoridades federales, estatales y municipales ha sido MALO o MUY MALO. Este indicador permaneció prácticamente igual, pasando de 85% en el mes anterior. PRINCIPALES HALLAZGOS MAIN FINDINGS 10. 42% of surveyed companies think that the return to normality will take BETWEEN ONE AND TWO YEARS. This indicator worsened, moving from 39% in the previous month. 11. 31% of surveyed companies think that the return to normality will take from 6 to 12 MONTHS. This indicator worsened slightly, moving from 33% in the previous month. 12. 84% of surveyed companies think that the performance of federal, state and municipal authorities has been BAD or VERY BAD. This indicator remained basically unchanged, moving from 85% in the previous month.
  9. 9. Las empresas encuestadas ven muchos más riesgos que oportunidades actualmente: RIESGOS • Incertidumbre en políticas públicas. • Falta de confianza económica. • Falta de estado de derecho. • Incertidumbre sobre vacuna Covid-19. • Desempleo masivo. • Falta de apoyo gubernamental. • Violencia e inseguridad. • Ambiente de bajo crecimiento económico. • Problemas de liquidez y de financiamiento. • Cartera vencida. • Marco legal, laboral y fiscal inflexible. • Demoras en proyectos de infraestructura. OPORTUNIDADES • Entrada en vigor del TMEC. • Mayor presión para innovar. PRINCIPALES RIESGOS Y OPORTUNIDADES MAIN RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES The surveyed companies see far more risks than opportunities today: RISKS • Uncertainty in public policies. • Lack of economic confidence. • Lack of rule of law. • Uncertainty about Covid-19 vaccine. • Wide-spread unemployment. • Lack of government support. • Violence and insecurity. • Environment of low economic growth. • Liquidity and financing problems. • Past due credit portfolio. • Inflexible legal, labor and fiscal frameworks. • Delays in infrastructure projects. OPPORTUNITIES • Entry into force of USMCA. • Greater pressure to innovate.
  10. 10. RESULTADOS DETALLADOS DETAILED RESULTS
  11. 11. 1: ¿Cómo calificaría el entorno comercial ACTUAL en el que opera su empresa? 1: How would you rate the CURRENT business environment in which your company operates?
  12. 12. 2: ¿Cómo calificaría el entorno de negocios PROSPECTIVO hacia los próximos seis a doce meses? 2: How would you rate the PROSPECTIVE business environment towards the next six to twelve months?
  13. 13. 3: En comparación con el MES ANTERIOR, la condición general de su empresa es: 3: Compared to the PREVIOUS MONTH, the overall condition of your company is:
  14. 14. 4: ¿Cuál es el MAYOR RETO para su empresa en los próximos seis a doce meses? 4: What is the BIGGEST CHALLENGE for your company in the next six to twelve months?
  15. 15. 5: ¿Cuál es la MAYOR OPORTUNIDAD para su empresa en los próximos seis a doce meses? 5: What is the BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY for your company in the next six to twelve months?
  16. 16. 6: ¿Qué tan probable es que su compañía considere ADQUIRIR un negocio o entrar en una ALIANZA ESTRATÉGICA en los próximos seis a doce meses? 6: How likely is that your company will consider ACQUIRING a business or entering into a JOINT VENTURE in the next six to twelve months?
  17. 17. 7: ¿Cuánto tiempo cree que pasará hasta que regresemos a la normalidad? 7: How much time do you think will pass until we go BACK TO NORMAL?
  18. 18. 8: ¿Cómo calificaría la gestión de esta crisis por parte de sus OFICIALES GUBERNAMENTALES? (Promedie su respuesta para considerar niveles federales, estatales y municipales) 8: How would you rate the management of this crisis by your ELECTED GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS? (Average your answer to consider federal, state and municipal levels)
  19. 19. SOMOS NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  20. 20. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50 CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO • ABLE TO TRAVEL IN LATAM • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com EY PWC. BBVA / BANAMEX ZIMAT CIT METLIFE LESAFFRE KPMG DELOITTE. INTERPUBLIC BOMBARDIER +GF+ GM KANDEO 1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 Formal launch as independent consultancy Professional Experience as Employees History Some of our interventions as Consultants
  21. 21. Managing Partner of Nuricumbo + Partners. His career started as Audit Manager with PWC Mexico. After a few years, he moved into the advertising industry where he held Internal Audit positions with Y&R and IPG, two international advertising groups, working in New York City for five years. He returned to Mexico as CFO for the New Business division of McCann Group Worldwide. Started his career as independent consultant delivering audit work for several multinationals in Latam and leading several fraud investigations in Mexico. Won a contract with Bombardier Transportation to work for three years in Canada and Europe on a financial transformation initiative. Worked with the American Consultancy RGP as their Country Manager. Today, Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, internal and external audit, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. Nuricumbo + Partners have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects. Armando has held different positions at the Mexican Institute of Public Accountants, including Vice President of the Business Sector, President of the International Affairs Committee, and Member of the Audit Quality Control Committee. He is member of Editorial Committees at Mundo Ejecutivo and AAPAUNAM. He is Treasurer and Board Member at the British Chamber of Commerce, as well as the Anglo-Mexican Foundation. He was President of the charity Amistad Británico-Mexicana. He is member of the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives. He has been Board Member or Comisario at many companies. His opinions have been referenced by El Financiero, Reforma and Canal 40. Armando graduated as a public accountant, Summa Cum Laude, from the National University of Mexico (UNAM). He is certified in Mexico by the Mexican Institute of Public Accountants and in the U.S. by the Illinois Accountancy Board. He has a Masters Degree in Asian Studies by the University of Tamkang in Taiwan. He recently completed the program “Leading Professional Service Firms” at Harvard Business School. Armando Nuricumbo Managing Partner
  22. 22. COMPANY PROFIT Armando NuricumboRodrigo Llanos Miguel Amador Guillermo Lagos Former CFO / AuditorFormer Investment Banking Former Controller / Auditor Former CEO Jesus Bush PWC. IPG. Bombardier. RGP. 25 years of experience. Valmex. Inverlat. Arka. 30 years of experience. Whirlpool. Banco Azteca. 30 years of experience. EY. Smurfit. Maxcom. Devlyn. 25 years of experience. 3M. Imperial Chemical. IMEF 30 years of experience. Some members of our consulting team Alejandro Rico Tax Advisor / Auditor KPMG. Confies. 25 years of experience. Jose Trevino Former NAFTA Negotiator Colmex. Comce. Cancham. 30 years of experience. Oscar Becerril Former Banker / Credit VP Scotiabank. Citi. Fonatur. 30 years of experience. Roberto Fernandez Former CIO AT&T Capital. CIT. Alta. 30 years of experience. Enrique Ugarte Former CEO ProMexico. CCE. Edomex. 30 years of experience. Former CIO Marisol Baca Former PMO CFE. BID. Real Financiera. 25 years of experience. José A. Ventura Former CFO / Auditor PWC. Truper. BristolMyers. 30 years of experience.
  23. 23. § Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slTWGx6XAs0&t=59s § Hong Kong or the Discreet Charm of the New Cold War. http://www.nuricumbo.com.mx/hong-kong-or-the-discreet- charm-of-the-new-cold-war/ § Willingness to Pay & Value Stick. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki3p1gmABU4 § Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi-bR_jbxes • Why should we measure Economic Confidence? https://imcp.org.mx/publicaciones/el-imcp-comunica-para- que-nos-sirve-medir-la-confianza-economica/ § Interview with Ana Maria Salazar (ADN40) https://twitter.com/adn40/status/1150034010451529731?s= 20 § Interview with the Ambassador of Spain in Mexico. http://www.aapaunam.mx/assets/jul_sep_read_2019.pdf § Interview with Pedro Ferriz de Con (Central FM) http://www.nuricumbo.com.mx/acerca/media-events/ Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  24. 24. Estamos a la orden para profundizar sobre cualquier aspecto relacionado con la encuesta. We are at your service in case you require more information about any aspect of the survey. contacto@nuricumbo.com Muchas gracias Thank you very much

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