2. 2
The large scale solar market has
come a long way in 5 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Large Scale Solar Developments in Australia (MW)
Non-ARENA Funded (LHS) ARENA Funded (LHS) Cumulative (RHS)
2012 – Greenough River Solar
Farm built. Financed by
Synergy, GE and the WA
government
* Projects to be announced
3. 3
With the state governments
leading the initial charge
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Large Scale Solar Developments in Australia (MW)
Non-ARENA Funded (LHS) ARENA Funded (LHS) Cumulative (RHS)
2014 – Royalla Solar Farm
built by FRV as part of ACT
Government Solar Auction
* Projects to be announced
4. 4
AGL stepping in for Australia’s
first major deployment
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Large Scale Solar Developments in Australia (MW)
Non-ARENA Funded (LHS) ARENA Funded (LHS) Cumulative (RHS)
2015 – AGL’s Nyngan Solar
Farm comes online with NSW
Government support
* Projects to be announced
5. 5
2014 and 2015 were lean years
for the industry
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Large Scale Solar Developments in Australia (MW)
Non-ARENA Funded (LHS) ARENA Funded (LHS) Cumulative (RHS)
2016 – Broken Hill, Moree Solar
Farm, Mugga Lane, Normanton
and Sunshine Coast
* Projects to be announced
6. 6
But the path to parity has been
forged in perseverance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Large Scale Solar Developments in Australia (MW)
Non-ARENA Funded (LHS) ARENA Funded (LHS) Cumulative (RHS)
Clare Solar Farm
2017 – Barcaldine and Clare
Solar Farms announced
* Projects to be announced
7. 7
The market is clearly exceeding
all expectations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Large Scale Solar Developments in Australia (MW)
Non-ARENA Funded (LHS) ARENA Funded (LHS) Cumulative (RHS)
ARENA LSS Round2018 – ARENA’s large scale
solar competitive round
expected to exceed by 25%
* Projects to be announced
8. 8
Measuring the ripple effect is
difficult, only hindsight is a
useful yardstick
$80 – $100
BREE 2012
$210 – $300
LCOE$/MWh
2010 2015 2020
ACT FIT *
$110 - $130
Australian LCOE trajectory
* Normalised for capital structure advantages associated with 20 year FIT
ARENA
current
portfolio
Short term target
wind parity
$140 - $170
Were we too conservative?
9. 9
The large scale solar round was
launched in a difficult
environment
Consultations
began in mid
2015 before the
round was
launched in
September 2015.
200+
registrations, 80+
applicants, 22
shortlisted parties
and ?? winners
10. 10
Shared knowledge is an
invaluable commodity
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
$/W
Average Total Capital Costs per Watt of Installed Capacity (DC and AC)
Capital Costs (DC) per Watt Capital Costs (AC) per Watt
Average AC Average Australia Wind
Source: ARENA
Solar capital costs
now below wind
11. 11
Solar now looking to take its fair
share of the market to 2021
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016
7,205 7,205 7,205
4,067
7,990 8,081642
643 644
243
2,882 2,699
12,360
19,131 19,040
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015 Aggressive build
scenario
Gradual build
scenario
Landfill gas
Indstrial PV
STEG
Large-scale PV
Biomass
Wind
Hydro