Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                  	Global Wind Power UpdateSteve Sawyer, Secretary General          Aug...
Beijing      |    Brussels   |   London                                                      	C0 MembersC2 MembersAssociat...
Beijing   |    Brussels   |   London	                    $96bn in                      wind                     power     ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London              	Moving East, and South	                                  $96bn in       ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |       London         	    	                        2010 growth: 24.1%	14 yr avg growth: 28.3%	 ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London        	                       2010 growth: -0.5%	        	14 yr avg growth: 29.2%
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London               	% of global electricity supply                                  $96bn i...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                   	Source: http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=181	                     	...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |    London                    	                     Development of CostsFeb ‘11: Bloomberg NEF s...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                             	            Offshore still small~3,060 MW Cumulative Capa...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                 	  2010 European offshore wind power market•  308 new ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                               	     Cumulative European Offshore Market               ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                  	     Market outlook: 2011 and beyond•  January to Ju...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                           	Future European offshore wind power market Scenarios 2020 E...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London             	EU Offshore 2011 – 2020 (MW)                       •  2011: annual       ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London             	EU Offshore 2021 – 2030 (MW)                        •  2021: annual      ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                     	US Projects Under development         - 1 with fe...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                                                               	       ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                           	                Post-Fukushima Japan	A new beginning for wi...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                       	Many challenges to reduce costs:	                      	       ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                              	ADVANTAGES                              ...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                 	                      ConclusionsOffshore is still sm...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                         	            Conclusions - 2Market conditions:  -   Asian mark...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London                                 	                Conclusions - 3A global climate agree...
Beijing         |      Brussels   |   London                                                	                  Global Wate...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London             	                   For more information:Thank you!              Steve Saw...
Beijing   |   Brussels   |   London	                $96bn in                  wind                 power                 (...
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Steve Sawyer GWEC at NRGsystems: Global Wind Update

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GWEC's Steve Sawyer reminds us that a sustainable future for the wind industry is based on thinking about it, doing it, and then repeating what works.

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Steve Sawyer GWEC at NRGsystems: Global Wind Update

  1. 1. Beijing | Brussels | London Global Wind Power UpdateSteve Sawyer, Secretary General August 9, 2011 NRG Systems HQ Hinesburg, VT
  2. 2. Beijing | Brussels | London C0 MembersC2 MembersAssociations GWEC – Uniting the global wind industry and its representative associations
  3. 3. Beijing | Brussels | London $96bn in wind power $96bn in (up by wind 31%) power (up by 31%)
  4. 4. Beijing | Brussels | London Moving East, and South $96bn in wind power (up by 31%)
  5. 5. Beijing | Brussels | London
  6. 6. Beijing | Brussels | London
  7. 7. Beijing | Brussels | London 2010 growth: 24.1% 14 yr avg growth: 28.3% 7
  8. 8. Beijing | Brussels | London 2010 growth: -0.5% 14 yr avg growth: 29.2%
  9. 9. Beijing | Brussels | London
  10. 10. Beijing | Brussels | London
  11. 11. Beijing | Brussels | London
  12. 12. Beijing | Brussels | London
  13. 13. Beijing | Brussels | London
  14. 14. Beijing | Brussels | London
  15. 15. Beijing | Brussels | London % of global electricity supply $96bn in wind power (up by 31%) 15
  16. 16. Beijing | Brussels | London Source: http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=181
  17. 17. Beijing | Brussels | London Development of CostsFeb ‘11: Bloomberg NEF says H2 2010 turbine prices were below 1 million Euro/MW $96bn in wind power (up by 31%) 17
  18. 18. Beijing | Brussels | London Offshore still small~3,060 MW Cumulative Capacity: 2% of total installed wind power capacity ~1,000 MW 2010 Market: ~2.5% of annual wind power market 2020: ~70 GW - 10% cumulative capacity
  19. 19. Beijing | Brussels | London 2010 European offshore wind power market•  308 new offshore wind turbines installed and connected•  Investment in offshore wind farms totalled €2.6 billion•  883 MW in total – increased by 51% on the previous year•  During 2010, work was carried on 18 offshore wind farms among which: - Eight wind farms were fully completed and grid connected - One wind farm partially completed and grid connected - One wind farm completed but not grid connected•  Average water depth: 17.4 m in 2010•  Average distance to shore: 27.1km
  20. 20. Beijing | Brussels | London Cumulative European Offshore Market 1991 – 2010•  1,136 turbines installed and grid connected•  2,946 MW in total•  45 wind farms in nine European countries•  Produces 11.5 TWh of electricity in a normal year•  Average wind turbine size 3.2 MW
  21. 21. Beijing | Brussels | London Market outlook: 2011 and beyond•  January to June 2011: 101 offshore turbines totalling 348.1 MW fully grid connected. Overall 11 offshore wind farms under construction which when completed will account for 2,844 MW.•  As of 30 June 2011, there are 1,247 offshore wind turbines fully grid connected with a total capacity of 3,294 MW in 49 wind farms spread over 9 countries. EWEA forecasts that between 1,000 and 1,500 MW of new offshore wind capacity will be fully grid connected in Europe during 2011•  19,000 MW are currently fully consented•  150,000 MW announced projects
  22. 22. Beijing | Brussels | London Future European offshore wind power market Scenarios 2020 EWEA baseline scenario: 40 GW EWEA high scenario: 55 GW National (NREAP) targets: 43 GW 2030 EWEA baseline scenario: 150 GW
  23. 23. Beijing | Brussels | London EU Offshore 2011 – 2020 (MW) •  2011: annual installations of 1.5 GW •  2020: annual installations of 6.9 GW •  2020: cumulative installations of 40 GW Source: EWEA
  24. 24. Beijing | Brussels | London EU Offshore 2021 – 2030 (MW) •  2021: annual installations of 7.7 GW •  2030: annual installations of 13.6 GW •  2030: cumulative installations of 150 Source: GW EWEA
  25. 25. Beijing | Brussels | London US Projects Under development - 1 with federal lease (Cape Wind, MA) - Not much before 2015 - Enormous Potential Source: AWEA
  26. 26. Beijing | Brussels | London The Prize - mean of 8.3 m/s (at 80 m height); 7.9 m/s in estuaries; - excluded major bird flyways, shipping lanes, military zones, etc; - resource using current technology (Siemens 3.6MW or RePower 5MW) - 0-20m = ~60GW; - 20-50m = ~120GW; - 50-100m = ~150GW – - total delivered power ~300GW continuousKempton, W., C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson(2007), Large CO2 reductions via offshore wind power matched to inherent - total current demand for coastal statesstorage in energy enduses,Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02817, doi:10.1029/ 2006GL028016. from MA to NC (incl DC) = ~73GW
  27. 27. Beijing | Brussels | London Post-Fukushima Japan A new beginning for wind in Japan…both on and offshore? Now famous ‘battle proof’ Kamisu near-shore wind farm survived direct hit from tsunami in March. Projects also under investigation in Tokyo Bay
  28. 28. Beijing | Brussels | London Many challenges to reduce costs: Source: EWEA
  29. 29. Beijing | Brussels | London ADVANTAGES HywindHigher winds further outRelatively robust and cost efficient designMinimal offshore workIndependent of location, less conflictsMinimal land or sea-scape issuesSPECIFICATIONSTurbine size: 2.3 MWTurbine weight: 138 tonsTurbine height: 65 mRotor diameter: 82.4 mDraft hull: 100 mDisplacement: 5300 m3Diameter at water line: 6mDiameter submerged body: 8.3 mWater depths: 120-700 mMooring: 3 lines
  30. 30. Beijing | Brussels | London ConclusionsOffshore is still small % of global market, and will likelyremain so throughout this decade;Many challenges: Cost, OM, Standards, Supply chains,vessels, etc.Europe will develop ca 40 GW of projectsChina will develop: targets 5 GW by 2015, and 30 by 2020Others (Japan, US, Canada, India, Brazil) uncertainOnshore wind is now cost competitive in most markets withmost conventional new-build. When will the same be true foroffshore?
  31. 31. Beijing | Brussels | London Conclusions - 2Market conditions: - Asian market driving global growth - European market solid and steady - North America uncertain and weak at the moment - Hopeful signs in Latin America, Africa - Downward price pressure continues - Trade barriers/new protectionism? - International commodity price volatility returns with economic recovery
  32. 32. Beijing | Brussels | London Conclusions - 3A global climate agreement will be fundamental for wind power toachieve its maximum potential, but for the short term:Uncertainty: - in international political landscape - in the future of the carbon markets - in ‘new’ climate-related fundsFocus on national/regional legislation and marketsMarket drivers all still in place, and increasingly prominent: energy security; cost stability; macroeconomic security; local economic development and job creation; local environment and climate
  33. 33. Beijing | Brussels | London Global Water Crisis Water Intensities of Power Generation (m3/MWh) Source: http://www.vestas.com/en/about-vestas/strategy/political-affairs/water-energy-climate-nexus.aspx
  34. 34. Beijing | Brussels | London For more information:Thank you! Steve Sawyer steve.sawyer@gwec.net
  35. 35. Beijing | Brussels | London $96bn in wind power (up by 31%)

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