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Curve of influence mar 2014

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What happens to Capital Program / Project as it moves though different stages

Ability to influence weakens
Amount of Data at your disposal strenghtens

Published in: Engineering

Curve of influence mar 2014

  1. 1. Cost Reporting & Forecasting Scope Development Conceptual Estimate Available Detailed Estimate Available Procurement Construction Startup Cost Impact High Low Project Time LineInitiation Phase Closeout Phase Cost Target Developed Only at this stage do traditional PSoR starting Controlling, Reporting & Monitoring the project
  2. 2. * *Commonsense says the more you know and the sooner the better the outcome But Owners often forget and have to be reminded Following slide is to try and get the message ‘home’ graphically
  3. 3. How to manage cost during the project Cost Reporting & Forecasting Scope Development Conceptual Estimate Available Detailed Estimate Available Procurement Construction Startup Cost Impact High Low Project Time LineInitiation Phase Closeout Phase Cost Target Developed
  4. 4. Cost Reporting & Forecasting Scope Development Conceptual Estimate Available Detailed Estimate Available Procurement Construction Startup Cost Impact High Low Project Time LineInitiation Phase Closeout Phase Cost Target Developed As the project moves to the ‘right of time’ Scope, Schedule & Cost information ‘deepens and hardens’
  5. 5. Cost Reporting & Forecasting Scope Development Conceptual Estimate Available Detailed Estimate Available Procurement Construction Startup Cost Impact High Low Project Time LineInitiation Phase Closeout Phase Cost Target Developed Project Team need to realise The better the Scope is realised the greater Cost & Schedule accuracy Change during ‘bid’ the less Cost & Schedule Impact Change during Construction/Start Up still possible After Award we are locked into a CONTRACT The Cost of Change can be prohibitive But
  6. 6. Cost Reporting & Forecasting Scope Development Conceptual Estimate Available Detailed Estimate Available Procurement Construction Startup Cost Impact High Low Project Time LineInitiation Phase Closeout Phase Cost Target Developed Highly influential decisions are made on little data How does the data typically grow?
  7. 7. Stage Data type rows Data type Description Source Cost Target 100 Major Elements In house historical data or Industry ‘best guess’ Conceptual Estimate 400 High Level WBS Algorithms , historical data bases, $/ft Detailed Estimate 4000 Full WBS, CBS, OBS by Work Packages MTO s from 90% or better drawings Cost Baseline 4000 - 7000 More detail WBS, CBS, OBS by Work Package, Contract Packages, PO s & CO s Estimate, Commitments, & Forecast Forecast at Completion 7700 More detail WBS, CBS, OBS by Work Package, Contract Packages, PO s & CO s Estimate, Commitments, & Forecast + Trends, Allowance for Change Final Cost 8000 More detail WBS, CBS, OBS by Work Package, Contract Packages, PO s & CO s Commitment & Spends including Claims & Credits
  8. 8. * • Need to be able to anticipate data structure at different stages • The data needs to be able to ‘nest’ between each stage for • Continuity • Comparison • ‘Future-proofing’

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