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June 16th Presentation - Kansas City Urban Market Assets


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June 16th Presentation - Kansas City Urban Market Assets

  1. 2. Overview <ul><li>Reason for the DrillDown </li></ul><ul><li>DrillDown Process </li></ul><ul><li>Kansas City Results </li></ul><ul><li>District Results and Selected Neighborhoods </li></ul><ul><li>Questions after each major section </li></ul>
  2. 3. Major Barrier to Urban Investment <ul><li>Major barrier: Lack of purchasing power </li></ul><ul><li>Major barrier: Insufficient concentration of target customer </li></ul><ul><li>Major barrier: Crime or Perception of Crime </li></ul><ul><li>Why are we here? Accurate market information about our urban core areas. </li></ul><ul><li>Source: ICSC Retail Survey 2002 </li></ul>
  3. 4. The Census <ul><li>Census increasingly undercounts urban core areas and is less accurate as time passes </li></ul><ul><li>Full count every 10 years – need yearly household data to inform policy & update market models for development </li></ul><ul><li>Misses pockets of development and subsequent growth (ex. population from Crossroads, Westport condos and lofts) </li></ul><ul><li>Cash economy is absent </li></ul>
  4. 5. The DRILLDOWN <ul><li>Social Compact, nonprofit funded by a coalition of Banks and retail companies to improve inner-city marketability. </li></ul><ul><li>An estimate of the urban population using multiple data sources from federal, state & city levels </li></ul><ul><li>Transactional data: utility use, purchases, and property information. </li></ul>
  5. 6. The DRILLDOWN <ul><li>Asset Data Drives Urban Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Uncovers hidden market assets, like population, true purchasing power, and the informal economy </li></ul><ul><li>Backed by Brookings, ICSC, the Federal Reserve, top 100 marketing retail research departments. </li></ul><ul><li>Conducted in over 100 urban neighborhoods resulting in nearly one billion in investment </li></ul><ul><li>15 cities to date, three more coming on in 2008. </li></ul>
  6. 7. DrillDown Impact in Other Cities <ul><li>Houston – Results provide solid case for redevelopment of Gulfgate Mall and surrounding area. </li></ul><ul><li>D.C. - Key to attracting Target and Giant to two urban neighborhoods. </li></ul><ul><li>Harlem – $1 billion in cash economy. Fleet setup two branches, 3 atms and a micro-lending facility. </li></ul><ul><li>Cleveland - $820 million cash economy results in KeyBank establishing new branches and strategy to increase banking in urban core neighborhoods. </li></ul>
  7. 8. DrillDown: How Does It Work? <ul><li>Transactional data versus reported data </li></ul><ul><li>Use multiple 'layers' of data </li></ul><ul><li>Overlay, one dataset may capture </li></ul>
  8. 9. DrillDown: How Does It Work?
  9. 10. DrillDown: How Does It Work?
  10. 11. DrillDown: How Does It Work?
  11. 12. DrillDown: How Does It Work?
  12. 13. Sample of the Data Sets <ul><li>Credit Bureaus (3)‏ </li></ul><ul><li>MLS/Home Sales </li></ul><ul><li>Claritas Consumer </li></ul><ul><li>BLS Cons Exp Rep </li></ul><ul><li>ESRI Business Ind. </li></ul><ul><li>IRS Records </li></ul><ul><li>USPS Records </li></ul><ul><li>KC Water </li></ul><ul><li>Building Permits </li></ul><ul><li>Demolition Permits </li></ul><ul><li>Public Housing </li></ul><ul><li>Parcel Data </li></ul><ul><li>Tax Assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Payday/Banks/Retail </li></ul>
  13. 14. Notes on Results <ul><li>DrillDown captures both missed households & pockets of new development </li></ul><ul><li>Not necessarily growth since 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>DrillDown is an estimation technique not a survey method </li></ul>
  14. 15. Kansas City Highlights <ul><li>Population: 533,117, or approximately 71,000 higher than 2000 Census estimates. </li></ul><ul><li>Change: Census 2006 estimates show a small population decrease of -1.9%, compared to the DrillDown estimates of 15%. </li></ul>
  15. 16. Kansas City Highlights <ul><li>Income: DrillDown estimates average household income is $54,000 or 13% higher than the Census 2000 estimate. </li></ul><ul><li>When the informal or &quot;cash&quot; economy is included, the average household income rises to $57,000. </li></ul><ul><li>Cash economy: The DrillDown estimates the citywide cash economy to be worth $668 million dollars </li></ul>
  16. 19. District Map
  17. 20. Districts Overview <ul><li>Population : The DrillDown estimates show significant change in all Districts, the largest in Districts 1, 3 and 5 </li></ul><ul><li>Income: Average household income is higher in all Districts, with large spikes in District 3 and 5 due to the informal or cash economy. </li></ul>
  18. 21. Districts Overview <ul><li>Cash Economy: Large cash economy in Districts 3, 5 and 6. </li></ul><ul><li>Density is a critical market asset in District 3 and 4, demonstrating the highest per acre purchasing power across the city. </li></ul>
  19. 25. District 1 <ul><li>Population: 98,416 - difference of 29% from Census 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Income: $53,793 average income with cash economy included - 17% difference from Census 2000 </li></ul>
  20. 28. District 2 <ul><li>$70,138 average income with cash economy included - 19% difference from Census 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Highest average income of all districts and should bode well for the retail that will serve the downtown CBD and Rivermarket population. </li></ul>
  21. 31. District 3 <ul><li>Population change: 17% </li></ul><ul><li>Average income: $41,113 </li></ul><ul><li>$$ per acre = $102,726 - 44% difference from Census 2000. </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd highest $$ per acre </li></ul>
  22. 34. District 4 <ul><li>Avg Income: $67,086 - 16% difference from Census 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>$$ per acre: $236,803 - 15% difference from Census 2000 </li></ul>
  23. 37. District 5 <ul><li>Pop: 75,832 - difference of 24% from Census 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Greatest change in total economy with a 53% difference from the Census by including the cash economy. </li></ul>
  24. 40. District 6 <ul><li>Population: 76,591 - difference of 5% from Census 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Avg Income $61,784 - informal cash economy included - 17% difference from Census 2000 </li></ul>
  25. 43. Next Steps <ul><li>Additional Data – retail leakage, credit report penetration, vacancy rates </li></ul><ul><li>Monthly Webinars </li></ul><ul><li>Desktop Application (July/August) – enable quick (SIMPLE) data access using google map platform </li></ul><ul><li>Custom reports with Corridor Partners or on a purchase/request basis for others </li></ul>
  26. 44. KCUMA Team <ul><li>Dan Melton, PhD – Team Leader </li></ul><ul><li>Robyne Turner‏, PhD – UMKC Leader </li></ul><ul><li>Ryan Gerety – Social Compact Liaison </li></ul><ul><li>Kate Bender – KCMO Liaison </li></ul><ul><li>Doug Bowles – UMKC CEI Liaison </li></ul><ul><li>UMKC Team: Chris Green, Heather Starzynski, Joe Zhao, Sam Newby </li></ul>
  27. 45. Questions? For More Information: Dan Melton KCUMA Coordinator [email_address]