Schrodinger's investments: How to evaluate business cases in this crazy world
Schrödinger's cat is a thought experiment, sometimes
described as a paradox. It illustrates the theory, that unless
proved otherwise, object exists in more states at the same
time. The scenario presents a cat that may be both alive and
dead, this state being tied to an earlier random event.
Although the original "experiment" was imaginary, similar
principles have been researched and used in practical
The thought experiment is also often featured in theoretical
discussions of the interpretations of quantum mechanics.
Let’s assume, that outcome of an investment exist
in two different states: success and fail.
And you only judge choices
based on performance against
these stable mega trends.
Could it maximize your chance
to find your business in the
„I will be happy if you
suggest more to make a
great list together“
There are always couple of underlaying mega trends that influence the ecosystem very constantly. These are
the only linearities you can always count with.
• Motivation one: Avoid the pain (e.g. complexity, effectivity, time consumption, physical work, danger).
• Motivation two: Pursue of pleasure (e.g. Inner proud, relaxation, free time, wealth, sex)
• More internet with more capabilities with more and more intuitive user interface
• Less transactional stores needed
• More customer interactions needs to be automated
• Internet is eating margins from value chains based on limited access to information (e.g. Shopping malls)
limited choice (e.g. Hobby markets) or any other means of material distribution (e.g. 3D printing)
• The brands that will stay on top will only be those that customers wants to follow
Internet spawns millions of tiny little apps that are ready to sneak
directly into pockets of your customers
Repeat this: I will never again underestimate these bastards.
Albert Einstein did couple
of interpretation errors of
this theory and plagued
some quantum physics
conversations until today.
Many years later, Richard
Feynman made Einstein's
suggestion into a nuclear
What happens if all business cases on the planet were correct?