Global cellular market trends and insight q3 2012


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Global cellular market trends and insight q3 2012

  1. 1. Wireless IntelligenceGlobal cellular market trends and insightQ3 2012September • • 1
  2. 2. 57+65+54+72+60+7867++ 84+72+88+77+92+81+94 47 +84Global wirelessintelligence.comHSPA and LTE increase their share of global connections 9 120% Market penetration• World cellular connections in Q2 2012 reached 6.3 billion; in Q3 2012 we Connections (billion) estimate the quarter closed at 6.4 billion 8• Global HSPA connections passed 900 million and we expect them to reach 100% 7 1 billion during Q3, thereby accounting for more than 15% of total• The number of LTE connections worldwide passed 25 million during Q2 6 80%Mobile broadband networks make up 100% of launches in Q3 5 60%• There were 36 network launches during Q3 2012, of which 15 were LTE 4 (including three TD-LTE), 18 HSPA, two EV-DO Rev. B and one WiMAX• There are now 97 live LTE networks worldwide (including eight TD-LTE and 3 40% one AXGP), not including MTS Uzbekistan’s service which was shut down 2 during Q3 20% 1iPhone 5 heats up smartphone battle; Apple and Google almost level on 0 0%apps 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016• Google announced that it now activates more than 1 million Android devices per day, and has reached a total of 400 million activated worldwide 9+69+1912c7+523074c• Apple sold more than 5 million of its latest smartphone, the iPhone 5, within the first three days of the device going on sale• Meanwhile, Samsung sold more than 20 million of its signature Technology split smartphone, the Galaxy S3, in the 100 days after its release in May 2012; the company is targeting a total of 30 million sales by the end of 2012• Nokia launched two smartphones using the new Windows Phone 8 operating system, although the phones will not go on sale until Q4 2012• Apple announced in its Q3 2012 earnings call that there were now 650,000 apps in the App Store (including 250,000 specifically designed for the 2012 2016 iPad), up from 600,000 in April• Meanwhile, Google reported in June that it was not far behind with 600,000 Android apps now available through Google PlayQuarterly forecast accuracy• Our estimates are replaced during the quarter by the actual results reported by the operator and regulatory community• The delta between our estimates at the beginning of the quarter and the CDMA (Family) GSM WCDMA (Family) LTE (Family) Other actual results for Q2 2012 stood at just -0.37% 2
  3. 3. Africa 3138+44+37+51+43+5850+ +63+56+67+61+70+65+73+69 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 1,500 120% Market penetration Connections (million)Connections Total 584.4 664.4 688.3 1,250 100%(million) Contract 23.5 25.7 26.9 1,000 80% Prepaid 560.9 614.1 633.8 750 60% CDMA (Family) 17.1 16.6 15.6 GSM 531.5 594.2 612.1 500 40% WCDMA (Family) 35.8 53.6 60.5 250 20%Net additions Total 16.8 23.4 23.9(million) 0 0% Contract 0.9 0.5 1.2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2+88+100c1+702810c Prepaid 15.9 11.9 19.7Growth rate, Total 3.0% 3.7% 3.6%quarterly Technology split Contract 4.1% 2.0% 4.8% Prepaid 2.9% 2.0% 3.2%Growth rate, Total 18.4% 17.1% 17.8%annual Contract 17.6% 13.7% 14.4% 2012 2016 Prepaid 18.4% 12.7% 13.0%Market penetration 56.0% 62.5% 64.4%ARPU $8.50 $7.96 $7.95 CDMA (Family) GSM WCDMA (Family) LTE (Family) Other 3
  4. 4. Africa wirelessintelligence.comInvestment in mobile broadband beginning to pay dividends Insight: Services, affordable devices the key to unlocking Eastern AfricaData growth showing promise thanks to modern network deployments The longer-term prospects for Eastern and Middle Africa – which will account for• 60% of traffic on Vodacom’s South African network is due to mobile the majority of Africa’s growth over the next five years – are starting to improve broadband; smartphone traffic is growing 10 times faster than any other thanks to continued investment and targeted services. In Tanzania, market- device, now averaging 92 MB/smartphone user/month leader Vodacom announced plans to enhance its rural coverage, on which it will• Vodacom has 16 million active data users across Africa as of Q2 2012 spend TZS 120 billion ($77 million) in 2012 alone. The company also saw growth (from 50 million connections in total), up 45% year-on-year; the operator’s in its M-Pesa mobile money service, up 121% annually to 3.6 million customers, price per MB has decreased by 18% over the same period representing about 40% of its total connections. M-Pesa now accounts for 71%• MTC Namibia reported significant usage of its recently launched LTE of Vodacom Tanzania’s data revenue. network; by August it had signed up just 1,000 users, however they were consuming 23% of all traffic at an average of 1.6 GB/device/day Tigo (Millicom) revealed a $100 million network expansion plan in August,• The CEO of Telecel (Orascom) Zimbabwe noted that since April data spreading across all 26 regions of Tanzania, giving it the largest 2G coverage revenue has exceeded SMS/messaging revenue footprint in the country to date. Fourth-placed Zantel (Etisalat) is rolling out 3G and mobile broadband services. Zantel’s aim to achieve 20% market3G and LTE upgrade investment remains strong share by 2014, up from 7% currently, comes despite current Q2 losses due• Safaricom Kenya noted that 400,000 smartphones were in use on its to unsustainable competition. Vodacom however noted an ‘improved pricing network as of Q1; in Q2 75% of the market uses Safaricom devices to environment’ and in September slashed off-net voice costs by 50% on a new access the internet following a 42.2 Mb/s upgrade in high traffic areas ‘Bonga’ tariff - suggesting the smaller operators are still finding their footing in a• Etisalat Egypt plans to invest $500 million to launch LTE; MTN South Africa previously price-unstable market. may launch LTE by end-2012 following a 200 base station trial• Vodacom DRC commenced its $25 million 3G rollout in September, which In Kenya, Safaricom’s well-placed bet on subsidised low-cost Android devices will see 350 base stations installed before the end of the year in a market has paid off. At KES 8,000 ($100), the Huawei IDEOS smartphone sold 210,000 with just 25% penetration and no other 3G networks units in the year prior (a majority share of total on-network smartphones) and usage accounted for 20% of all customer data volumes. The company isPiecemeal M&A offers an alternative to regional deals capitalising on the wave of enthusiasm for data services – with data customers• Essar Group appointed BNP Paribas to sell its 72% controlling stake in yu growing 31% year-on-year to 4.6 million (of 19.1 million connections in total) – by (Essar Telecom) in Kenya, and later confirmed that the mobile arm requires investing in capacity, IP backhaul and a real-time billing backend to increase its up to $250 million over two years to grow the business agility in the market. Uganda exhibits a similar pattern – an $80 million network• The Tunisian government announced its intention to sell off its 25% stake investment promised by year-end from MTN to improve quality and drive rural in Tunisiana (Wataniya) coverage. Meanwhile, Airtel (Bharti) will focus on its 21 Mb/s HSPA+ services,• The Algerian government confirmed talks concerning the future of Djezzy available in 30 Ugandan towns. Interestingly, despite just 42% penetration, the are still continuing as it looks to re-nationalise a 51% stake. Earlier this regulator UCC noted that second-SIM purchases dominated new additions in year, VimpelCom agreed to a sale, but has been unable to agree on a the first half of the year with only a marginal number of new subscribers. valuation 4
  5. 5. Americas 5559+64+60+70+66+7673+ +80+77+83+81+86+85+87+87 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 1,500 150% Market penetration Connections (million)Connections Total 950.0 1,019.6 1,033.7 1,250(million) 120% Contract 393.2 415.6 419.9 1,000 Prepaid 556.8 594.7 604.3 90% 750 CDMA (Family) 205.4 204.6 202.4 60% GSM 564.9 563.4 560.3 500 WCDMA (Family) 150.3 212.1 228.2 250 30%Net additions Total 21.2 19.3 14.1(million) 0 0% Contract 9.0 5.7 4.3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 19+53+2521c13+3639111c Prepaid 12.3 10.6 9.6Growth rate, Total 2.3% 1.9% 1.4%quarterly Technology split Contract 2.3% 1.4% 1.0% Prepaid 2.3% 1.8% 1.6%Growth rate, Total 11.0% 9.8% 8.8%annual Contract 12.1% 8.2% 6.8% 2012 2016 Prepaid 10.3% 9.2% 8.5%Market penetration 100.6% 107.2% 108.4%ARPU $27.62 $27.19 $27.09 CDMA (Family) GSM WCDMA (Family) LTE (Family) Other* Note: data table includes Northern America, but this is discussed separately on slides 11–12 5
  6. 6. Americas wirelessintelligence.comSmartphone penetration ramping up across Latin America Insight: Anatel plays hardball in BrazilA mixed picture as slowing growth for Chile and Mexico weigh on the The Brazilian regulator Anatel has its eye set on gearing up the national telecomsregion infrastructure for a series of sporting events over the coming years that will• Latin America maintained its position as the third-fastest growing region in showcase the country to the world, including the Confederations Cup (2013), Q2 2012, behind Africa and Asia FIFA World Cup (2014), and the Olympics (2016). In June, it started allocating• Connections growth in the region slowed to 11% year-on-year in Q2 2012, spectrum for LTE via the auction of spectrum in the 2,500 MHz band, and in down 1.7pp compared to Q2 2011; at current rates, we forecast that August it announced its intention to auction off blocks of 700 MHz spectrum annual growth will drop below 10% in Q4 2012 (currently used by television broadcasters) by December 2013. However, this• Regional powerhouse Brazil maintained strong connections growth, spectrum will not be available for use until the digital TV switchover, which is posting an annual increase of 18% year-on-year in Q2 2012 – its growth planned for June 2016. rate has shown little variation over the last four quarters; Argentina and Peru both experienced an increase in annual growth rates year-on-year In July, Anatel took aggressive action over the operators, suspending TIM, Oi• A number of countries saw strong slowdowns in year-on-year growth; Chile and Claro from offering new contracts in a number of states due to concerns was down by 10.6pp, Mexico by 8.0pp, Colombia by 4.4pp, and Ecuador over a growing number of complaints related to service quality. The Brazilian by 6.9pp, partly due to a change in reporting definitions by America Movil market continues to experience strong connections growth; annual growth in which excluded a number of inactive prepaid subscribers Q2 2012 picked up an additional 0.2 percentage points compared to Q2 2011. However, when coupled with fast-growing smartphone and mobile broadbandSmartphone penetration increasing rapidly user bases this trend is leading to network capacity challenges that the regulator• Telefonica Group saw smartphone penetration in the region reach 10% of aims to mitigate. TIM, which was singled out as the worst offender by Anatel, connections in Q2 2012, up from 4% a year earlier revealed that smartphone sales comprised 79% of total handset sales during• Brazilian market leader Vivo saw sales of smartphones (including data Q2 2012, up from 54% in Q2 2011. plans) triple during the year ending Q2 2012• Meanwhile, rival TIM achieved smartphone penetration of 35.2% by Q2 Anatel’s ban was only lifted in early August following its receipt of “satisfactory 2012, up 20pp year-on-year assurances that their investment plans will rectify the poor quality of service and patchy coverage”. The impending launch of LTE services by all four BrazilianGovernments step in to avoid market failures operators will have gone some way to placating the regulator, while Wi-Fi offload• In April, Haitel’s CDMA network was shut down, and the company officially also appears to be a method of choice. In September, TIM announced that it had went into receivership (under control of the Haitian Government) with debts signed an agreement with Wi-Fi carrier Linktel Corporate, with which it aims to of around $80 million bring 10,000 Wi-Fi hotspots online “in areas with known issues where it comes• In July, the Government of Honduras intervened to take control of the to high traffic volumes” by the end of 2012. country’s ailing state-owned Hondutel, replacing its CEO with a special committee after designating the operator to be in “financial crisis” To compound matters further for Brazilian operators, Anatel has also indicated• In September, having cancelled an auction for the 25% of 3G spectrum it is considering a further cut in mobile termination rates, to be implemented in that it still controls, Argentina’s Government now plans to go into business January 2013. itself, utilising the 3G spectrum through state-owned company Arsat 6
  7. 7. Asia 4848+58+58+66+67+7375+ +80+82+85+88+88+93+91+97 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 5,000 120% Market penetration Connections (million)Connections Total 3,162.6 3,449.5 3,539.8 100%(million) 4,000 Contract 540.3 587.7 604.0 80% Prepaid 2,622.3 2,856.5 2,929.2 3,000 60% CDMA (Family) 301.0 319.1 325.2 2,000 GSM 2,493.6 2,621.6 2,660.3 40% WCDMA (Family) 322.5 431.0 463.2 1,000 20%Net additions Total 115.9 102.2 90.3(million) 0 0% Contract 16.6 16.1 16.3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9+74+14210c8+572360c Prepaid 99.4 80.8 72.6Growth rate, Total 3.8% 3.1% 2.6%quarterly Technology split Contract 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% Prepaid 3.9% 2.9% 2.5%Growth rate, Total 19.2% 13.2% 11.9%annual Contract 12.2% 12.2% 11.8% 2012 2016 Prepaid 20.7% 13.2% 11.7%Market penetration 75.2% 81.4% 83.3%ARPU $9.69 $9.13 $9.22 CDMA (Family) GSM WCDMA (Family) TD-SCDMA LTE (Family) Other 7
  8. 8. Asia wirelessintelligence.comLTE gains traction in Asia as VoLTE services kick off Insight: Political troubles continue to dog MTSLTE makes rapid inroads in South Korea and Japan; India suffers Most Russian operator groups are adept at managing the frequent politicalslowdown interference in their affairs that can often catch out unsuspecting foreign players• LTE connections in South Korea passed 7 million during Q2 (reaching 15% operating in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia. For example, Western European market penetration) and 3.7 million in Japan (3% penetration) based operators Telenor and TeliaSonera both spent the best part of the last• Total connections growth in India continued to slow, hit by BSNL, MTNL, decade in various legal disputes with Asian and Eastern European partners. But Loop Mobile, Tata DOCOMO and Videocon reporting Q2 declines even Russian groups can find themselves caught out by political manoeuvrings,• Regional subscriber growth was further impacted in Q3 2012 by such as in late 2010 when MTS found itself on the wrong end of a dispute the removal of over 20 million inactive connections by Reliance with the Turkmenistan authorities that saw its licence indefinitely suspended. Communications India and the licence cancellation of MTS Uzbekistan However, positive signs in the dispute began to emerge in May 2012 and by late August the operations had resumed with many former customers reactivatingTower assets on the block as operators look to cut debt their services.• Bharti Airtel is planning a $1 billion IPO of its tower business Bharti Infratel• Reliance Communications also confirmed it plans another attempt to float However, the situation in Turkmenistan was quickly followed by an even more Reliance Infratel; BSNL is also considering demerging its tower assets extraordinary turn of events for MTS in neighbouring Uzbekistan. MTS stated that• Indosat (Qtel) completed the sale of 2,500 towers for $406 million it has been the target of blatant harassment by the Uzbek authorities “with the thinly-veiled purpose of destroying the business and expropriating its assets.”VoLTE arrives in South Korea; 34 live LTE deployments in the region MTS claimed the authorities accused MTS Uzbekistan’s management of “nearly• Voice-over-LTE (VoLTE) services were launched in South Korea by SK every financial crime that exists” and undertaking “unlicensed activities as part Telecom and LG Uplus; rival KT intends to also launch VoLTE imminently of a criminal group.” MTS went on to accuse the Uzbek authorities of carrying• The region reached 34 commercial LTE networks following launches by out human rights violations of its employees including “interrogations without Optus (SingTel) Australia, IT&E (PTI) Guam, China Mobile Hong Kong (TD- access to legal counsel and threats of physical coercion.” Whether a resolution LTE), SmarTone Hong Kong, SoftBank Mobile Japan (FDD-LTE), au (KDDI) will be possible for MTS in Uzbekistan remains to be seen, though in light of the Japan, Omantel Oman, Smart (PLDT) Philippines and StarHub Singapore accusations levelled by MTS it would appear that a reproach with the authorities• Vodafone Hutchison launched dual-carrier 42.2 Mb/s HSPA+ in Australia, remains a long way off. It has already proved to be a costly dispute for MTS with while Geocell (TeliaSonera) in Georgia launched 21.1 Mb/s HSPA+ the group posting a loss in Q2 due to a $1.1 billion write-off of it Uzbek assets.Indian 2G auction postponed yet again; Uzbekistan terminates MTS With former international outcast Myanmar taking steps to open its market to• India’s Supreme Court postponed the re-auction of cancelled 2G licences foreign operators it serves as a timely reminder of the potential political risks until January 2013 - the DoT now plans to begin the auction in November involved. Perhaps it is therefore unsurprising that another Russian operator• MTS Uzbekistan’s licence was cancelled in August in a dispute between group, VimpelCom, has already been linked with reports that it is interested in the operator and the Uzbek authorities entering the market - as has Vietnam’s Viettel, another group experienced in• Myanmar announced it will open its market to foreign operators with two operating in difficult political environments. We expect most Western European additional licences expected to be issued in late 2012/early 2013 operators to steer clear despite the opportunity to enter one of the last largely untapped mobile markets in the world. 8
  9. 9. Europe 6486+87+65+90+67+9269+ +95+71+97+72+99+74+100+75 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 1,500 150% Market penetration Connections (million)Connections Total 976.4 997.8 1,002.2 1,250(million) 120% Contract 359.5 380.2 385.2 1,000 Prepaid 615.1 615.8 615.2 90% 750 CDMA (Family) 6.4 7.1 7.3 60% GSM 673.5 640.6 627.7 500 WCDMA (Family) 295.5 348.7 365.2 250 30%Net additions Total 7.2 -3.2 4.4(million) 0 0% Contract 5.4 4.4 5.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1+59+3910c1+3751110c Prepaid 1.8 -7.7 -0.6Growth rate, Total 0.8% -0.3% 0.4%quarterly Technology split Contract 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% Prepaid 0.3% -1.2% -0.1%Growth rate, Total 2.6% 3.0% 2.6%annual Contract 5.7% 7.4% 7.1% 2012 2016 Prepaid 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%Market penetration 131.6% 134.3% 134.9%ARPU $20.16 $19.13 $19.30 CDMA (Family) GSM WCDMA (Family) LTE (Family) Other 9
  10. 10. Europe wirelessintelligence.comMobile broadband accounting for a quarter of European connections Insight: iPhone 5 shakes up LTE market as UK 4G finally gets green lightGrowth in the East helps region hit 1bn subscribers for the second time The launch of the iPhone 5 in September looks to be a significant point in the• Europe again passed 1 billion connections in Q2 after falling back in Q1 shaping of the LTE market in Europe, with Apple’s decision to support the 1800• Of the 183 active operators, 143 witnessed positive quarterly net additions MHz band with its first LTE-enabled device playing into the hands of some representing a total of 8.3 million connections, while 40 operators recorded operators and causing considerable consternation for others. The device will subscriber losses totalling 4.0 million likely become the world’s best-selling smartphone in its first full quarter after• The largest gains were recorded by Tele2 (Russia) with 693,000 net launch, and users will be keen to take advantage of its LTE capabilities. However, additions, followed by T-Mobile (536,000) and Play (525,000) in Poland with only 13 of 36 live LTE networks in Europe operating in the 1800 MHz band,• Vodafone saw the biggest subscriber losses; the transfer of 1 million only around one in three LTE operators across the region will have a 4G LTE connections to an MVNO led to a 655,000 decline in Germany, while the network that is compatible. disconnection of 400,000 inactive subscribers contributed to a 639,000 net decrease in Spain This puts pressure on operators with 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz LTE services, the most common LTE bands in Europe, which could now lose customers to rivalsMobile broadband booms as slower data connections are phased out able to offer iPhone 4G packages as an exclusive. The operators set to gain the• In Q2 2012 Europe passed 250 million HSPA connections, with the most advantage are those which are the sole 1800 MHz LTE operator in their technology now representing more than a quarter of subscribers in Europe country, a list which currently includes Deutsche Telekom in Germany, O2 in the• There are now more than 1.5 million LTE subscribers in Europe, a figure Czech Republic and T-Mobile in Hungary. Meanwhile, Finland, Poland, Croatia which we expect to increase to 2.5 million in Q3 2012, by which time and Denmark all have two LTE operators in the 1800 MHz band, which could WCDMA will represent less than 10% of regional connections mean particularly bad news for their rivals. On the flip side, many countries in the region have no 1800 MHz LTE networks at all, so iPhone 5 users will have noSmartphones dominating handset sales chance whatsoever of a 4G LTE service – although we expect more 1800 MHz• Vodafone reported that smartphone penetration across its European launches soon. operations was 28.7% in Q2 2012• Smartphone connections at Movistar in Spain grew 25% year-on-year to This issue has been felt particularly acutely in the UK, where in August the 7.2 million in Q2 2012, a penetration level of 34% regulator OfCom granted permission to largest operator Everything Everywhere• In the UK, O2’s smartphone penetration was up 8pp to 42% in Q2 2012, to launch the country’s first LTE network on its spare 1800 MHz spectrum later but still trailed Vodafone, which reported 46.5% this year. This decision was met with considerable protest from local rivals O2• MTS Russia reported that 17.2%of the phones on its network were and Vodafone, which must wait until the next round of UK spectrum auctions smartphones in Q2 2012, a figure it expects to be 20% by year-end are completed in 2013 before they can launch LTE services – and even then the spectrum will be in the 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz and thus not compatible with thePrepaid growth flat as smartphone adoption drives contract growth iPhone 5. Whilst other LTE smartphones will be available for these bands, these• With 615 million connections in Q2, year-on-year growth in prepaid was flat operators will only be able to supply Apple’s device on their 3G HSPA networks,• However, contract connections increased 7% on Q2 2011 to 385 million a fact that Everything Everywhere – and 3, which also has 1800 MHz spectrum subject to clearance - will be well placed to exploit. 10
  11. 11. Northern America 6386+87+68+90+73+9278+ +95+81+97+83+99+85+100+87 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 500 120% Market penetration Connections (million)Connections Total 352.2 370.3 372.8 100%(million) 400 Contract 281.2 291.5 292.4 80% Prepaid 71.0 78.8 80.5 300 60% CDMA (Family) 187.4 190.8 189.8 200 GSM 58.2 43.1 40.9 40% WCDMA (Family) 88.4 109.0 111.7 100 20%Net additions Total 6.4 4.4 2.5(million) 0 0% Contract 4.4 2.4 0.9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 51+12+3061c39+827260c Prepaid 2.0 2.0 1.7Growth rate, Total 1.9% 1.2% 0.7%quarterly Technology split Contract 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% Prepaid 3.0% 2.6% 2.1%Growth rate, Total 8.9% 7.1% 5.9%annual Contract 9.8% 5.3% 4.0% 2012 2016 Prepaid 5.4% 14.3% 13.4%Market penetration 101.3% 105.9% 106.3%ARPU $48.94 $48.56 $48.94 CDMA (Family) GSM WCDMA (Family) LTE (Family) Other 11
  12. 12. Northern America wirelessintelligence.com4G LTE adoption is reshaping the US spectrum landscape Insight: Tier 2 operators ramp-up 4G while supporting LTE roaming solutionTier 1 operators continue to switch on wider LTE coverage As part of its ‘4G LTE for All’ marketing campaign, MetroPCS passed a number• In Q2 2012, LTE connections in the US totalled 13.7 million, of which of milestones during the second half of 2012. The US operator reached 700,000 Verizon Wireless holds the majority share (79%) LTE connections in Q2 2012 and launched an unlimited LTE data plan for $55• 4G LTE represented 4% of the US market in Q2 2012 and is forecast to per month in August. This promotion – albeit being limited in time – is an effort reach 6% by year-end - over 20 million LTE connections to align its pricing with larger rivals such as Verizon and comes alongside the• AT&T Mobility’s LTE network is live in 66 markets and expects its LTE introduction of more affordable LTE smartphones such as the LG Motion 4G deployment to be largely complete by end of next year priced at $149. In addition, MetroPCS has commercially deployed its VoLTE• Verizon Wireless’ LTE network is live in 371 markets – covering 75% of the network which it offers via the LG Connect 4G until more compatible devices are US population – and the operator is targeting 400 markets by year-end added to the portfolio by year-end.• Sprint Nextel announced that its LTE network rollout is underway in more than 100 additional cities within its existing nationwide 3G footprint; by the As of Q2 2012, MetroPCS has built-out around 90% of its total footprint with end of 2013, the operator expects its LTE coverage to largely match its 4G-LTE – up from 80% in Q1 2012 - and expects to reach 97% in October. existing nationwide 3G footprint Meanwhile, Cricket Communications expects its LTE network to cover 21 million• T-Mobile USA’s plan to rollout LTE in 2013 looks more likely now that the people by year end, aiming to reach two thirds of its total network footprint FCC and DoT have approved its AWS spectrum purchase from Verizon over the next two to three years. Similarly, C Spire Wireless launched its LTE network in September covering an initial population of 1.2 million people. TheLTE adoption is accelerating technology migration Mississippi towns of McComb, Brookhaven, Meridian and Greenville are the first• AT&T plans to shut down its legacy 2G network in 2017 as it refarms of 31 markets that will receive C Spire’s LTE services between September and spectrum in the 1900 MHz band for next-generation services the end of October. Another six markets will be activated by the end of 2012• Sprint Nextel intends to shut down its iDEN network in Q2 2013, ceasing while further launches are planned for next year. its focus on WiMAX at the same time and refarming its 800 MHz spectrum for CDMA and LTE services Spectrum remains a major concern for Tier 2 operators. MetroPCS has deployed• T-Mobile USA aims to rollout LTE in the AWS spectrum it acquired from LTE in its 1700/2100 MHz band (AWS) and its 1900 MHz band, stressing the AT&T and Verizon while refarming its 1900 MHz spectrum for HSPA opportunity for roaming agreements with other operators in this AWS spectrum• MetroPCS hopes to begin refarming spectrum that it is currently using combination. These types of LTE data roaming agreements started materialising for CDMA traffic by the middle of next year, and is working to move all its in late August once the FCC approved Verizon Wireless’ $3.9 billion purchase traffic to its LTE network of 20 MHz of nationwide AWS spectrum from several cable firms, along with• Verizon Wireless stated that it will maintain its 3G CDMA network for related spectrum deals with T-Mobile USA and Cricket Communication. The “a very, very long time” in order to support niche products, including AWS spectrum now appears a good candidate for regional and global LTE machine-to-machine applications roaming, with most US LTE operators supporting this solution while chasing additional spectrum assets. 12
  13. 13. Wireless Intelligence wirelessintelligence.comWireless Intelligence is the definitive source of mobile operator data,analysis and forecasts, delivering the most accurate and complete setof industry metrics available.Relied on by a customer base of over 800 of the world’s leading mobileoperators, device vendors, equipment manufacturers and financial andconsultancy firms, the data set is the most scrutinised in the industry. Joss Gillet Will Croft Jon Groves Senior Analyst Analyst AnalystWith over nine million individual data points (updated daily), the serviceprovides coverage of the performance of all 1,140 operators and1,153 MVNOs across 3,505 networks, 65 groups and 236 Calum Dewar Mark Giles Analyst Analyst • • Whilst every care is taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this material, the facts, estimates and opinions stated are based on information and sources which, while we believe them to be reliable, are not guaranteed. In particular, it should not be relied upon as the sole source of reference in relation to the subject matter. No liability can be accepted by Wireless Intelligence, its directors or employees for any loss occasioned to any person or entity acting or failing to act as a result of anything contained in or omitted from the content of this material, or our conclusions as stated. The findings are Wireless Intelligence’s current opinions; they are subject to change without notice. The views expressed may not be the same as those of the GSM Association. Wireless Intelligence has no obligation to update or amend the research or to let anyone know if our opinions change materially. © Wireless Intelligence 2012. Unauthorised reproduction prohibited. Please contact us at or visit Wireless Intelligence does not reflect the views of the GSM Association, its subsidiaries or its members. Wireless Intelligence does not endorse companies or their products. Wireless Intelligence operates under an Independence Charter. For full details please see GSM Media LLC, 1000 Abernathy Road, Suite 450, Atlanta, GA 30328.