Carnegie Corporate Bond -webinaari 27.3.2014


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Carnegie Corporate Bond - Viiden tähden yrityslainatuottoja pohjoismaista

Nordnet järjesti 27.3.2014 webinaarin Carnegien kanssa. Esityksessä Carnegie Corporate Bond -rahaston hoitajat Stefan Ericson ja Niklas Edman kertovat mm. kuinka kiinnostavia joukkolainamarkkinat ovat, mihin rahaston menestys perustuu sekä miten he löytävät parhaat sijoitukset rahaston optimoimiseksi. Kasvava määrä pohjoismaisia yhtiöitä rahoittaa toimintaansa joukkolainoilla pankkilainojen sijaan. Mutta jatkavatko joukkolainamarkkinat kasvuaan? Minkälaisia tuottoja sijoittaja voi odottaa?

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Carnegie Corporate Bond -webinaari 27.3.2014

  1. 1. CREDITS AND FIXED INCOME Nordnet, March 2014 Carnegie Fonder AB
  2. 2. Carnegie Fonder AB THE CREDITS AND FIXED INCOME TEAM  Employed at Carnegie Fonder since 2011  Awarded ”Portfolio manager of the year – corporate bonds” by Morningstar and Dagens Industri  Investor – Tresuary 2009-2011  SEB (Stockholm) – 2007-2009  SEB (New York) – 1997-2007  MBA and Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA Stefan Ericson Niklas Edman  Employed at Carnegie Fonder since 2013  Armada Mezzanine Capital 2010-2013  Carnegie Investment Bank (M&A) 2007-2010  MSc in Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics 27 March 2014 2
  3. 3. 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SEKm Corporate bonds …whereof HY 3March 27, 2014Carnegie Fonder AB MARKET DEVELOPMENT evolution, not a revolution Examples of issuers  “Artificially” low interest rate environment (central banks buying large quantities of government and corporate bonds) which is expected to persist as long as the world economy does not improve significantly  Growing volume of corporate bonds and several new issuers  2011 12 new; 2012 26 new; 2013 20+  Volume Nordic HY YTD SEK c.76bn – Important to shrink the banking sector (bank balance sheet as of GDP) to ensure financial stability – Good diversification of companies and sectors  Growing HY market in Sweden Comments Growing market for corporate bonds (Sweden)
  4. 4. 427 March 2014Carnegie Fonder AB SWEDISH CREDIT INDEX (NASDAX OMX)  Total return c. 1.35 percent for five years SEK credit index bps above three months Stibor
  5. 5. 527 March 2014Carnegie Fonder AB FIVEYEAR SPANISH GOVERNMENT BOND  The risk appetite has returned as the fear of a Spanish bankruptcy or the Euro dissolvent has decreased.
  6. 6. CARNEGIE CORPORATE BOND Carnegie Fonder AB
  7. 7. BROAD MANDATE CREATES OPPORTUNITIES Carnegie Corporate bond 727 March 2014Carnegie Fonder AB  We aim to have a well diversified portfolio  Sweet spot BB- to BBB  We do not invest in the most risky part of the HY spectrum S&P Moody's Comments AAA Aaa Investment grade AA+ Aa1 Investment grade/High grade AA Aa2 Investment grade/High grade AA- Aa3 Investment grade/High grade A+ A1 Investment grade/upper medium grade A A2 Investment grade/upper medium grade A- A3 Investment grade/upper medium grade BBB+ Baa1 Investment grade/medium grade BBB Baa2 Investment grade/medium grade BBB- Baa3 Investment grade/medium grade BB+ Ba1 High yield/speculative grade BB Ba2 High yield/speculative grade BB- Ba3 High yield/speculative grade B+ B1 High yield B B2 High yield B- B3 High yield CCC+ Caa High yield CCC Ca High yield CCC- C High yield D Default Rating Investment Grade Funds High Yield Funds Carnegie Corporate bond
  8. 8. 27 March 2014 INVESTMENT PROCESS  Company/management/owners – Meet relevant parties – Management track record, How has the owners acted previously in this and/or other companies?  Industry analysis – Outlook, Cyclicality, Industry trends  Where is the bond in the capital structure – Covenants, how much other debt etc.  Other sources of information – Company analysis, what do the stack market think about the company  Potential rating  Liquidity Carnegie Fonder AB 8 Price
  9. 9. 927 March 2014 SECTOR EXPOSURE 2014-02-28 Carnegie Fonder AB Sectors Governments 0,9% Consumer Discretionary 1,9% Consumer Staples 5,3% Covered bonds 15,5% Energy 6,8% Financials 13,5% Health Care 4,0% Industrials 6,2% Investment Companies 5,0% Materials 9,4% Media 1,3% Oil services 10,0% Oil & Offshore 4,2% Real Estate 4,2% Services 4,1% TMT 2,7% Transportation 3,6% Cash and other 1,3% Total 100,0%
  10. 10. 1027 March 2014Carnegie Fonder AB PERFORMANCE Swe. Gov. Bonds 2,0% -3,3% 1,6% 13,3% 2,0%2010 7,8% n.a 2009 6,8% n.a 2012 11,6% n.a 2011 3,3% n.a 2014 1,5% 1,4% 2013 5,6% n.a Year Car. Corporate bond (SEK) Car. Corporate bond (EUR) 3,1% Total Return -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2013-05-30 2013-08-30 2013-11-30 2014-02-28 Carnegie Corporate Bond (EUR) Gov. Bonds
  11. 11. 1127 March 2014Carnegie Fonder AB WHY INVEST IN CARNEGIE CORPORATE BONDS?  Opportunity to receive higher returns than with traditional fixed income products  Diversify the portfolio with a new asset class  Corporate bonds are still priced low relative to government bonds  Difficult to replicate  Invest in the largest credit fund with Nordic exposure  A growing interest from Nordic companies seeking financing through corporate bonds, presents opportunities for the fund  All bonds in foreign currency are hedged to SEK /EUR /NOK (dependent on asset class)  5-star overall rating from Morningstar Sweden ”Best Cautiously Managed Fund” - MoneyMate Fund Award 2013
  12. 12. Disclaimer  All material in this presentation is provided for general guidance and informational purposes only and relates to the law of Sweden and/or European law as applicable. The material is under no circumstances to be used or considered as financial advice or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. The material is obtained from various sources; while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material is true and not misleading, Carnegie does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.  The presentation and its content and material does not have regard to any specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may access this presentation. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this presentation and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should also understand that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.  The Carnegie Group of Companies ("Carnegie"), its partners, staff and associated companies exclude all and accept no liability whatsoever (to the extent permitted by applicable law) for any direct or consequential losses, costs, claims, damages, expenses or proceedings of whatever nature incurred or suffered by you arising directly or indirectly in connection with the use of this presentation and its content and material, or due to any unavailability of part or all of presentation or any material or related services. Readers of this presentation who are investors in the U.S. should be aware that investing in non-U.S. securities entails certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the current informational reporting and audit standards of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 12Carnegie Fonder AB 27/03/2014