Global mining industry and its project pipelinesDamian BrettMining Philippines September 2011
RMG activities• Raw Materials Data: Metals/Coal/Iron Ore• Strategy development:     Mining companies     Equipment & servi...
Introduction•   Global Demand v Mining Supply•   CAPEX•   Global Exploration•   Project Pipelines•   Conclusions
Global demandSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
Global miningSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
Metals value at mine                                              386  billion USD (2009)Source: Raw Materials Group, Stoc...
Global miningSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
Top Companies            Company name             Country     Share   Cumul   Main                                        ...
Top Companies             Company name                Country   Share    Cumul Main metal                                 ...
BUSD                                                      0                                                          20   ...
Project Pipeline CAPEX                                                              Conceptual                            ...
CAPEX by Region                     SE ASIA                         Rest of Asia                       4%                 ...
Global mining• Concentration increasing – but  for most metals not a   problem• Host countries demand fair share – more st...
Chinese demand                                          • China leads demand                                              ...
Chinese mining               20               18               16               14Cu kg/capita               12           ...
Chinese mining•   Largest mining country•   Many small, high cost mines•   Pressure to modernise•   Largest exploration co...
Global exploration       16       14       12       10BUSD         8                                              Global M...
Global NiSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
Global Ni ReservesSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
Ni Project Pipeline CAPEX                                            Conceptual                                           ...
Ni in Reserves (kt)  Laterite Sulphide             0         5000       10000       15000    20000   25000   30000     350...
Ni Pipeline Reserves                                             Conceptual                                             Pr...
Comparison• Ni   72% of Reserves in mines       25 years in mines• Cu   75% of Reserves in mines       28 years in mines• ...
Conclusions• China largest mining country in the world• Chinese shortfalls in Ni and Cu• SE Asia ideally positioned and mi...
Thank you                                                        Raw Materials Group                                      ...
Ni Production     2500     2000                                                                                           ...
Global CuSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
Global Cu ReservesSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
Cu Project Pipeline CAPEX                                            Conceptual                                           ...
Cu Pipeline Reserves (kt)                                             Conceptual                                          ...
Cu Pipeline Reserves                                        Conceptual                                        Prefeasibili...
Cu Production     25000                                                        Possible     20000                         ...
Announced / Completed Projects300                                    Boom Starts                     Financial          Re...
Chinese iron ore importsSource: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011
Chinese foreign expansion Ferro‐chrome                        5     0.1    0.5                                            ...
Chinese foreign minesSource: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011
Chinese foreign projectsSource: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011
Chinese FDI• Foreign expansion slow• No company in top 20 (yet)• Might increase in the future
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Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

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Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Damian Brett
Raw Material Group

Mining Philippines 
September 2011

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  • Ang yaman ng Palawan ay yaman ng Pilipinas It is known as the Philippines’ Last Ecological Frontier. It has 40% of our country’s remaining mangrove areas, 30% of our coral reefs, at least 17 Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), 2 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, and 8 declared Protected Areas (PAs). It is unmatched anywhere in the country
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  • NO TO MINING IN PALAWAN and other Key Biodiversity Areas, Natural Forests, Island Ecosystems, Critical Watersheds and Agricultural Areas!
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Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

  1. 1. Global mining industry and its project pipelinesDamian BrettMining Philippines September 2011
  2. 2. RMG activities• Raw Materials Data: Metals/Coal/Iron Ore• Strategy development: Mining companies Equipment & service providers• Mineral policy, investment promotion: Governments  International organisations
  3. 3. Introduction• Global Demand v Mining Supply• CAPEX• Global Exploration• Project Pipelines• Conclusions
  4. 4. Global demandSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
  5. 5. Global miningSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
  6. 6. Metals value at mine 386  billion USD (2009)Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
  7. 7. Global miningSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
  8. 8. Top Companies Company name Country Share Cumul Main (%) share metal (%) 1 Vale SA Brazil 4.680 4.68 Fe 2 BHP Billiton Group Australia 4.378 9.06 Div 3 Rio Tinto plc UK 4.344 13.40 Div 4 Anglo American plc UK 2.930 16.33 Div 5 Freeport-McMoran USA 2.425 18.76 Cu/Au 6 Barrick Gold Corp Canada 2.008 20.76 Au 7 Codelco Chile 2.001 22.77 Cu 8 Xstrata plc Switzerland 1.801 24.57 Div 9 Norilsk Nickel Russia 1.679 26.25 Ni 10 Newmont Mining USA 1.526 27.77 AuSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  9. 9. Top Companies Company name Country Share Cumul Main metal (%) share (%) (%) 11 Anglogold Ashanti South Africa 1.178 28.95 Au 100 12 Gold Fields Ltd South Africa 0.996 29.95 Au 96 13 Grupo Mexico Mexico 0.918 30.86 Cu 76 14 Belaruskali Belarus 0.814 31.68 K2O 100 15 Mosaic Co, The USA 0.785 32.46 K2O 77 16 Goldcorp Inc Canada 0.692 33.16 Au 87 17 Israel Chemicals Israel 0.683 33.84 K2O 94 18 Eurasian Nat. Res. UK 0.670 34.51 Fe 43 19 Kinross Gold Canada 0.659 35.17 Au 86 20 Potash Co Saskatch. Canada 0.643 35.81 K2O 87Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  10. 10. BUSD 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Global CAPEX 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f
  11. 11. Project Pipeline CAPEX Conceptual Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operating Operating, exp/plans Suspended Reopen 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 MUSDSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  12. 12. CAPEX by Region SE ASIA Rest of Asia 4% 7% Oceania 17% Africa 14% North America 19% Europe 11% Latin America 28%Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  13. 13. Global mining• Concentration increasing – but  for most metals not a  problem• Host countries demand fair share – more state  intervention• Companies from emerging economices gaining  importance• Diversified companies• Chinese lack influence
  14. 14. Chinese demand • China leads demand globally. • Growth rate will decrease. • Next 5 years it is still China, China!Rare earths drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  15. 15. Chinese mining 20 18 16 14Cu kg/capita 12 USA 10 Japan 8 South Korea 6 China 4 India 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 GDP kUSD/capita Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011
  16. 16. Chinese mining• Largest mining country• Many small, high cost mines• Pressure to modernise• Largest exploration country since 2010• Import dependency major policy concern
  17. 17. Global exploration 16 14 12 10BUSD 8 Global Metals 6 4 China Metals 2 0Sources: Western world: MEG China: Molar and RMG.
  18. 18. Global NiSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  19. 19. Global Ni ReservesSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  20. 20. Ni Project Pipeline CAPEX Conceptual Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operating Operating, exp/plans Suspended Reopen0 50000 100000 MUSDSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  21. 21. Ni in Reserves (kt) Laterite Sulphide 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Feasibility Construction Operating RestartSource: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011
  22. 22. Ni Pipeline Reserves Conceptual Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operating Operating, exp/plans Suspended Reopen 0 20 40 YearsSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  23. 23. Comparison• Ni 72% of Reserves in mines 25 years in mines• Cu 75% of Reserves in mines 28 years in mines• Zn 92% of Reserves in mines 41 years in mines
  24. 24. Conclusions• China largest mining country in the world• Chinese shortfalls in Ni and Cu• SE Asia ideally positioned and mineral endowed to fulfil this market• Ni project pipeline has the largest contained reserves in construction phase
  25. 25. Thank you Raw Materials Group PO Box 3127  SE‐169 03 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46‐8‐744 00 65    Fax: +46‐8‐744 0066 damian.brett@rmg.se www.rmg.seManganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  26. 26. Ni Production 2500 2000 PAL 1500 FeNikt 1000 Production 500 Demand 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011
  27. 27. Global CuSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  28. 28. Global Cu ReservesSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  29. 29. Cu Project Pipeline CAPEX Conceptual Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operating Operating, exp/plans Suspended Reopen0 100000 200000 MUSDSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  30. 30. Cu Pipeline Reserves (kt) Conceptual Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operating Operating, exp/plans Suspended Reopen0 500000 1000000Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  31. 31. Cu Pipeline Reserves Conceptual Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operating Operating, exp/plans Suspended Reopen0 20 40 YearsSource: Raw Materials Data, 2011
  32. 32. Cu Production 25000 Possible 20000 Probable 15000 Committedkt 10000 Existing Production 5000 Apparent  Consumption 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011
  33. 33. Announced / Completed Projects300 Boom Starts Financial Recovery Crisis250200150100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e Announced CompletedSource: Raw Materials Group, 2011
  34. 34. Chinese iron ore importsSource: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011
  35. 35. Chinese foreign expansion Ferro‐chrome 5 0.1 0.5 World productionBauxite 124 17 24 Chinese productionIron ore 1048 370 102 Planned Chinese  foreign expansionCopper 14 0.64 0.27 0% 50% 100% Source: BGR 2007
  36. 36. Chinese foreign minesSource: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011
  37. 37. Chinese foreign projectsSource: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011
  38. 38. Chinese FDI• Foreign expansion slow• No company in top 20 (yet)• Might increase in the future

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