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  1. 1. Innovation & Scenarios Neil Houghton March 2011
  2. 2. Thinking about scenarios <ul><li>Scenario work is actually difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Why? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Because it will involve complexity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Social complexity due to the diversity of perspectives </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dynamic complexity due to system interdependencies and separation of cause and effect </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Generative complexity due to uncertainty of emerging and next practices </li></ul></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  3. 3. Why use scenarios? <ul><li>For many reasons… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To challenge mental models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To create shared learning spaces </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To enhance resilience of our strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To surface assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To generate understanding and commitment around social problems </li></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  4. 4. Who? <ul><li>When beginning scenario work ask: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who do you want to be involved? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What will they bring? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What will they commit to? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Who do you need to work with? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Who are the ‘problem-owners’? </li></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  5. 5. Stances towards the future <ul><li>Adapt - Anticipate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>These are two primary stances towards the future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adaptive view: Scenarios as a tool for developing adaptive strategy to respond to possible futures </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Anticipatory view: Scenarios as a tool for influencing futures </li></ul></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  6. 6. Discipline <ul><li>Scenario work is a professional discipline </li></ul><ul><ul><li>There are well developed theories, models, frameworks and history of scenario work </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Shell 2050 scenarios </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>( Shell 2050 Scenarios.pdf ) and ( How They Do It.pdf ) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>South Africa Mont Fleur scenarios ( Mont Fleur.pdf ) </li></ul></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  7. 7. Characteristics <ul><li>Some key characteristics of scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Relevant (addresses a problematic situation) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenging (addresses a problem of significance) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plausible (may also be potential, possible, probable or preferred) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Clear (understandable and insightful) </li></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  8. 8. Scope of scenario work <ul><li>There are (at least) five purposes of using scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You can combine these </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To create new alliances </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To create new understandings </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To create new commitments </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To create new experiments </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To create new ecologies </li></ul></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  9. 9. A generic scenario process Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck New alliances New understandings New commitments New experiments New ecologies
  10. 10. Example Convening 3 day workshop Making sense 3 day workshop Implications: so what? 3 day workshop Communications 3 day workshop Writing scenarios 3 day workshop Evolution 3 day workshop Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck New alliances New understandings New commitments New experiments New ecologies
  11. 11. Multiple practices Learning Journeys Systems Thinking New commitments ‘ ChangeLab’ & ‘ Social Sculpting’ Models of Change Signature Practices Innovation Labs Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck
  12. 12. Multiple typologies <ul><li>There are multiple forms of scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trajectories </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ranges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4 Worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Branches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Horizons etc etc </li></ul></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck A A ’ A A ’ A ’’ A 1 A 2 A 4 A 3 A A ’ H 1 Issue - Horizon H 2 H 3 I 1 I 2 I 3
  13. 13. Innovation front-end <ul><li>There is a front-end to innovation and scenarios play a key role as variety and novelty-generators </li></ul>Neil Houghton Innovation & Scenarios SlideDeck