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COASTAL VULNERABILITY
UNDERSTANDING
Infrastructure Week 2015
http://infrastructureweek.org
@RebuildRenew
#RebuildRenew
Part 1: National Disaster Recovery Framework and
the Local Recovery Planning Manager Program
Part 2: Risk Assessments
■ Pu...
WHO WE ARE
Nonprofit NGO promoting responsible
land-use policies to:
■ Revitalize cities;
■ Preserve open space;
■ Keep housing affor...
Environmental Resources Mgmt/Restoration
■ Aquatic Ecologists, Lake Managers, Fish and Benthic
Ecologists;
■ Wetland and N...
NDRF/LRPM PROGRAM
PART 1:
Initial Involvement
■ FEMA seeking a partner for local recovery effort
■ FEMA/Merck Foundation request to create LRPM posi...
FEMA’s National Disaster Recovery Framework
“ … strongly recommends that
State Governors as well as local
government ... p...
The Program
Screening Criteria
1. Considerable storm damage
2. Limited or no in-house planning capabilities
3. Primarily f...
Who We Work With
RISK ASSESSMENT
PART 2:
Why Do A Risk Assessment?
Purpose:
■ Evaluate vulnerability to likely hazards;
■ Prioritize those actions that most effect...
METHODOLOGY
Sea Level Rise
2050 Sea Level Rise Projections
■ 1.48 FT (Miller, et. al.)
■ Coastal Plain
■ Central Scenario
Two Scenario...
Scenario 1
Sunny Day - Mean Higher High Water
■ The average of the higher high water height of each tidal
day observed ove...
Scenario 1
■ Land area covered by the floodwaters of the base flood
(1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard)
■ A* and V* Zones
■ NFIP regulati...
FEMA DFIRM
VE
VE
AE
AE
AE
AE
0.2%
FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area
Focus of Analysis
■ AE and VE Zones (1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard)
■ Detailed Studies with...
Two Routes of Increased Exposure
■ Inundation Extent
■ Water Depth
Evaluation
Note: Assumed a Linear Relationship
■ For Ex...
Inundation Extent
Scenario 2
Scenario 2
Water Depth
■ Percent of Land Inundated
■ Number of Parcels Impacted
■ Water Depth on each Property
■ Structure Damage
■ Depth Damage ...
Depth Damage Curve
At approximately 4 FT of
Water Depth, 50% of the
Structure is Damaged!
Depth Damage Curve
Refinements
■ First Floor Elevation at Grade
■ Exception – Parcels with Elevation Certificates since Sandy
■ Elevation > B...
■ Link Inundation Extents / Impacted Parcels with Parcel
Tax Assessors Data
■ Land Value
■ Improvement Value / Structure V...
Scenario 1
■ Percent of Land Inundated
■ Number of Parcels Impacted
■ Complete loss of the property, both structural and l...
Scenario 2: 1% Flood Event
■ Percent of Land Inundated
■ Number of Parcels Impacted
■ Water Depth
■ Temporary loss in stru...
■ Correlate loss of land and structural value to tax revenue
■ Correlate loss with land cover class
■ What implications do...
RESULTS
PART 3:
Little Egg Harbor Township – Current
Little Egg Harbor Township – 2050 SLR
Little Egg Harbor Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
■ 2050 SLR % of acres: 31%
■ 2050 /1% storm % of acres: 34%
The Bottom Line
Little Egg Harbor Township – Parcels
# of Lots...
Little Egg Harbor Township – Value
The Bottom Line
■ 2050 % of total value: 8%
■ 2050/1% storm % of total value: 32%
Total...
Sea Bright Borough - Current
Sea Bright Borough - 2050 SLR
Sea Bright Borough - 2050/1% Storm
# of Exposed
Lots
Exposed
Acres
# of Exposed
Lots
Exposed
Acres
Vacant (1) 38 20 215 61
Residential (2) 176 25 885 86
Comm...
Total Exposed
Value
% of Total
Value
Total Exposed
Value
% of Total
Value
Vacant (1) $4,873 7% $11,706,029 79%
Residential...
ADDITIONAL EXAMPLES…
Tuckerton Borough - Current
Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR
Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
 Total Exposed Value: $224.4 million
 % of Total Taxable Value: 50%
 % of Total Area: 66%
The Bottom Line
Tuckerton Bor...
Highlands Borough - Current
Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR
Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
 Total Exposed Value: $195 million
 % of Total Taxable Value: 34%
 % of Total Area: 41%
The Bottom Line
Highlands Borou...
Maurice River Township - Current
Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR
Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
 Total Exposed Value: $115 million
 % of Total Taxable Value: 39%
 % of Total Area: 21%
The Bottom Line
Maurice River T...
Commercial Township - Current
Commercial Township – 2050 SLR
Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
 Total Exposed Value: $45.5 million
 % of Total Taxable Value: 15%
 % of Total Area: 34%
The Bottom Line
Commercial Tow...
Not Just Our Towns
TACKLING RISK – WHO’S DRIVING?
PART 4:
Risk
Plan
RegulateSpend
States: Much More Than Bit Players
1. Require state and municipal hmp coordination
2. Set mitigation project/planning priorities
3. Determine how/where CDBG-...
Maryland
“As our climate continues to change and the
seas continue to rise, Maryland’s coastal areas
are highly susceptibl...
Delaware
“The goal of the Sea Level Rise Advisory
committee is to assess Delaware’s vulnerability
to current and future in...
New York
“New York is assisting communities to rebuild
better and safer based on community-driven
plans that consider curr...
New Jersey
The Planner’s Role
The Age of Innocence is So Over!
1. Can we continue to develop areas at risk?
2. Can we allow areas that suffer repetitive
loss to rebuild in place?
3. Wil...
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again
and expecting different results
Time for a new approach
We’re Done…..Your Turn
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Understanding Coastal Vulnerability Kutner and Pollack

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A detailed, parcel-based analysis of potential financial losses to municipalities as a result of sea-level rise and future severe weather.

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Understanding Coastal Vulnerability Kutner and Pollack

  1. 1. COASTAL VULNERABILITY UNDERSTANDING Infrastructure Week 2015 http://infrastructureweek.org @RebuildRenew #RebuildRenew
  2. 2. Part 1: National Disaster Recovery Framework and the Local Recovery Planning Manager Program Part 2: Risk Assessments ■ Purpose ■ Methodology Part 3: Risk Assessment Results Part 4: Tackling Risk – Who’s Driving? Topics
  3. 3. WHO WE ARE
  4. 4. Nonprofit NGO promoting responsible land-use policies to: ■ Revitalize cities; ■ Preserve open space; ■ Keep housing affordable; ■ Encourage transportation choices Mission www.njfuture.org
  5. 5. Environmental Resources Mgmt/Restoration ■ Aquatic Ecologists, Lake Managers, Fish and Benthic Ecologists; ■ Wetland and Natural Resource Ecologists; ■ Civil Engineers – Water resources, Hydrology; ■ Geotechnical Engineers – Soil Science, Geologists; ■ GIS Specialists Services www.princetonhydro.com
  6. 6. NDRF/LRPM PROGRAM PART 1:
  7. 7. Initial Involvement ■ FEMA seeking a partner for local recovery effort ■ FEMA/Merck Foundation request to create LRPM position ■ New Jersey Recovery Fund transitioned from relief to recovery
  8. 8. FEMA’s National Disaster Recovery Framework “ … strongly recommends that State Governors as well as local government ... prepare as part of their disaster recovery plans to appoint Local Disaster Recovery Managers to lead disaster recovery for the jurisdiction.”
  9. 9. The Program Screening Criteria 1. Considerable storm damage 2. Limited or no in-house planning capabilities 3. Primarily full-time residents
  10. 10. Who We Work With
  11. 11. RISK ASSESSMENT PART 2:
  12. 12. Why Do A Risk Assessment? Purpose: ■ Evaluate vulnerability to likely hazards; ■ Prioritize those actions that most effectively reduce or avoid future loss. “If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.” -Albert Einstein
  13. 13. METHODOLOGY
  14. 14. Sea Level Rise 2050 Sea Level Rise Projections ■ 1.48 FT (Miller, et. al.) ■ Coastal Plain ■ Central Scenario Two Scenarios ■ Sunny Day - Mean Higher High Water ■ FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas
  15. 15. Scenario 1 Sunny Day - Mean Higher High Water ■ The average of the higher high water height of each tidal day observed over the National Tidal Datum Epoch ■ Used local NOAA Tide Stations or NOAA Vertical Datum (Vdatum) Tool
  16. 16. Scenario 1
  17. 17. ■ Land area covered by the floodwaters of the base flood (1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard) ■ A* and V* Zones ■ NFIP regulations must be enforced ■ Mandatory purchase of flood insurance FEMA Mapping Special Flood Hazard Area
  18. 18. FEMA DFIRM VE VE AE AE AE AE 0.2%
  19. 19. FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area Focus of Analysis ■ AE and VE Zones (1% Annual Chance Flood Hazard) ■ Detailed Studies with Base Flood Elevations (BFE) ■ Predominate Flood Hazard Zones in Study Areas Scenario 2
  20. 20. Two Routes of Increased Exposure ■ Inundation Extent ■ Water Depth Evaluation Note: Assumed a Linear Relationship ■ For Example, if MHHW = 1 FT in current day conditions, then projected MHHW = 2.48 FT in 2050 ■ Creates Limitations for Scenario 2
  21. 21. Inundation Extent
  22. 22. Scenario 2
  23. 23. Scenario 2
  24. 24. Water Depth
  25. 25. ■ Percent of Land Inundated ■ Number of Parcels Impacted ■ Water Depth on each Property ■ Structure Damage ■ Depth Damage Curves ■ Residential vs. Commercial ■ One Story vs. Two Story ■ Basement vs. No Basement For Each Scenario
  26. 26. Depth Damage Curve
  27. 27. At approximately 4 FT of Water Depth, 50% of the Structure is Damaged! Depth Damage Curve
  28. 28. Refinements ■ First Floor Elevation at Grade ■ Exception – Parcels with Elevation Certificates since Sandy ■ Elevation > Base Condition + SLR ■ One-Story Residential and No Basement ■ Omitted Parcels ■ Less than 10% Inundation ■ Structure not Inundated
  29. 29. ■ Link Inundation Extents / Impacted Parcels with Parcel Tax Assessors Data ■ Land Value ■ Improvement Value / Structure Value ■ Calculated Average Water Depth Across each Parcel ■ Derive Exposure Value for Each Scenario Financial Exposure
  30. 30. Scenario 1 ■ Percent of Land Inundated ■ Number of Parcels Impacted ■ Complete loss of the property, both structural and land value ■ “New Normal” ■ Elevated structures Financial Exposure
  31. 31. Scenario 2: 1% Flood Event ■ Percent of Land Inundated ■ Number of Parcels Impacted ■ Water Depth ■ Temporary loss in structural assessment value ■ Elevated Structures ■ Loss of Land Value? ■ Frequency of this 1% flood event in 2050? Financial Exposure
  32. 32. ■ Correlate loss of land and structural value to tax revenue ■ Correlate loss with land cover class ■ What implications does this have? Financial Exposure
  33. 33. RESULTS PART 3:
  34. 34. Little Egg Harbor Township – Current
  35. 35. Little Egg Harbor Township – 2050 SLR
  36. 36. Little Egg Harbor Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  37. 37. ■ 2050 SLR % of acres: 31% ■ 2050 /1% storm % of acres: 34% The Bottom Line Little Egg Harbor Township – Parcels # of Lots Exposed # of Acres Exposed # of Lots Exposed # of Acres Exposed Vacant (1) 176 232 366 348 Residential (2) 711 130 4,083 686 Farm (3A) 1 6 1 6 Farm (3B) 0 0 0 0 Commercial (4A) 13 34 54 62 Industrial (4B) 0 0 0 0 Apartment (4C) 0 0 0 0 Public School Property (15A) 0 0 0 0 Public Property (15C) 128 8,679 180 8,795 Church/Charitable (15D) 0 0 5 4 Other Exempt (15F) 3 5 22 7 Total 1,032 9,085 4,711 9,909 2050 SLR 2050 SLR/1% Flood Property Class (Class Code)
  38. 38. Little Egg Harbor Township – Value The Bottom Line ■ 2050 % of total value: 8% ■ 2050/1% storm % of total value: 32% Total Exposed Value % of Total Total Exposed Value % of Total Vacant (1) $14,063,025 11% $35,336,605 28% Residential (2) $205,212,850 8% $822,161,915 32% Farm (3A) $35,800 13% $35,800 13% Farm (3B) $0 0% $0 0% Commercial (4A) $18,198,200 13% $27,200,103 19% Industrial (4B) $0 0% $0 0% Apartment (4C) $0 0% $0 0% Public School Property (15A) $0 0% $0 0% Public Property (15C) $20,977,100 19% $30,158,550 28% Church/Charitable (15D) $0 0% $1,408,502 9% Other Exempt (15F) $1,480,300 4% $4,750,100 14% Total $259,967,275 9% $921,051,575 31% Net Taxable $237,509,875 8% $884,734,423 32% 2050 SLR 2050 SLR/1% @ 100% LV Property Class
  39. 39. Sea Bright Borough - Current
  40. 40. Sea Bright Borough - 2050 SLR
  41. 41. Sea Bright Borough - 2050/1% Storm
  42. 42. # of Exposed Lots Exposed Acres # of Exposed Lots Exposed Acres Vacant (1) 38 20 215 61 Residential (2) 176 25 885 86 Commercial (4A) 21 29 61 58 Apartment (4C) 1 1 4 2 Public Property (15C) 3 1 13 10 Church/Charitable (15D) 0 0 3 1 Other Exempt (15F) 1 0 2 1 Total 240 76 1,183 218 Property Class (Class Code) 2050 SLR 2050 SLR/1% Flood Sea Bright Borough - Parcels The Bottom Line ■ 2050 SLR % of acres: 30% ■ 2050 /1% storm % of acres: 87%
  43. 43. Total Exposed Value % of Total Value Total Exposed Value % of Total Value Vacant (1) $4,873 7% $11,706,029 79% Residential (2) $2,627,606 8% $224,602,347 61% Commercial (4A) $1,077,896 36% $43,360,337 84% Apartment (4C) $208,402 29% $2,269,751 70% Public Property (15C) $11,225 3% $12,484,382 93% Church/Charitable (15D) $0 0% $1,537,657 56% Other Exempt (15F) $205,953 41% $1,026,553 70% Total $4,135,955 11% $296,987,056 65% Net Taxable Value $3,918,777 11% $281,938,464 65% 2050 SLR Property Class (Class Code) 2050/1% Flood Sea Bright Borough - Value The Bottom Line ■ 2050 % of total value: 11% ■ 2050/1% storm % of total value: 65%
  44. 44. ADDITIONAL EXAMPLES…
  45. 45. Tuckerton Borough - Current
  46. 46. Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR
  47. 47. Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  48. 48.  Total Exposed Value: $224.4 million  % of Total Taxable Value: 50%  % of Total Area: 66% The Bottom Line Tuckerton Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  49. 49. Highlands Borough - Current
  50. 50. Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR
  51. 51. Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  52. 52.  Total Exposed Value: $195 million  % of Total Taxable Value: 34%  % of Total Area: 41% The Bottom Line Highlands Borough – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  53. 53. Maurice River Township - Current
  54. 54. Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR
  55. 55. Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  56. 56.  Total Exposed Value: $115 million  % of Total Taxable Value: 39%  % of Total Area: 21% The Bottom Line Maurice River Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  57. 57. Commercial Township - Current
  58. 58. Commercial Township – 2050 SLR
  59. 59. Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  60. 60.  Total Exposed Value: $45.5 million  % of Total Taxable Value: 15%  % of Total Area: 34% The Bottom Line Commercial Township – 2050 SLR/1% Storm
  61. 61. Not Just Our Towns
  62. 62. TACKLING RISK – WHO’S DRIVING? PART 4:
  63. 63. Risk Plan RegulateSpend States: Much More Than Bit Players
  64. 64. 1. Require state and municipal hmp coordination 2. Set mitigation project/planning priorities 3. Determine how/where CDBG-DR funds are spent 4. Promote regional planning context/set common redevelopment standards (e.g. freeboard requirements) States: Much More Than Bit Players
  65. 65. Maryland “As our climate continues to change and the seas continue to rise, Maryland’s coastal areas are highly susceptible to storms, flooding, hurricanes and other hazards…By providing funding and technical assistance we are helping our most vulnerable communities combat the threat, and build a stronger, resilient Maryland” Governor Martin O’Malley
  66. 66. Delaware “The goal of the Sea Level Rise Advisory committee is to assess Delaware’s vulnerability to current and future inundation problems that may be exacerbated by sea level rise and to develop a set of recommendations for state agencies, local governments, businesses and citizens to enable them to adapt programs, policies, business practices and make informed decisions.” Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee
  67. 67. New York “New York is assisting communities to rebuild better and safer based on community-driven plans that consider current damage, future threats to community assets, and the community’s economic future.” Guidance for New York Rising
  68. 68. New Jersey
  69. 69. The Planner’s Role
  70. 70. The Age of Innocence is So Over!
  71. 71. 1. Can we continue to develop areas at risk? 2. Can we allow areas that suffer repetitive loss to rebuild in place? 3. Will taxpayers throughout the country be willing to subsidize risky behavior? 4. How long will the banking and insurance industries continue to hedge their bets? The Age of Innocence is So Over!
  72. 72. Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results Time for a new approach
  73. 73. We’re Done…..Your Turn

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