NJUA PRESENTATIONDemographic Change in New JerseyBrendan LivingstonEconomist, Rowan University
OVERVIEWDEMOGRAPHICS• Births – Deaths + Net Immigration• United States• 1990: 248 million• 2000: 281 million (13% growth)• 2010: 308 million (10% growth)• New Jersey• 1990: 7.73 million• 2000: 8.41 million (9% growth)• 2010: 8.79 million (5% growth)
NORTHEASTOTHER STATES• Pennsylvania• 1990: 11.9 million• 2000: 12.3 million (3% growth)• 2010: 12.7 million (3% growth)• New York• 1990: 17.9 million• 2000: 19.0 million (6% growth)• 2010: 19.4 million (2% growth)• Delaware• 1990: 0.7 million• 2000: 0.8 million (14% growth)• 2010: 0.9 million (13% growth)
FAMILYCHANGESBIRTHS & DEATHS• Births in New Jersey for 2008 from the AmericanCommunity Survey: 131,141• Deaths in New Jersey for 2008 from National Centerfor Health Statistics: 70,026• In the next 5 years, this disparity will most likelycontract as births decrease during the recovery.• In 20 years when the Baby Boomer generation isaround 85 or older this number is likely to compressfurther.
WHERETOLIVE?WHAT ABOUT POPULATION WITHIN NJ?• Even with state population growth not all countiesare gaining population.• We are able to work in New Jersey but live inanother state.• Are other states attracting New Jersey workers tolive their state?
NEWJERSEYPERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION 2002-2012Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
WHERETOLIVE?PERCENT CHANGE• The percent change map shows that many bordercounties are growing slowly compared to bordercounties in other states.• However, percent changes can be deceiving so let uslook at an absolute change in population map aswell.
NEWJERSEYABSOLUTE CHANGE IN POPULATION 2002-2012Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
NEWJERSEYECONOMYNET MIGRATION• People mostly move for jobs or retirement.• More jobs usually means more population.• How did the recent recession hit New Jersey?
NEWJERSEYECONOMYNUMBER OF JOBS LOST SINCE 2002Sector Number of Jobs LostManufacturing 112,568Finance & Insurance 53,197Construction 42,288Administration/Support 33,610Information 32,064Management of Companies 27,238
NEWJERSEYRECESSIONPERCENT CHANGE IN NUMBER OF JOBS FROM 2001 TO 2011Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
HOUSEHUNTINGPOPULATION AND CONSTRUCTION• Demographic changes are not as impactful onManufacturing and Finance.• Population growth equals an increase in demand forhousing.
ECONOMYSIMPLIFIED0510152025303540451995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012HousingPermitsIssuedinThousandsYearNumber of Housing Permits Issued forSingle Family Units by Year (1995-2012)DelawareNew JerseyNew YorkPennsylvaniaSource: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
HOUSEHUNTINGTHE ECONOMY AND HOUSING• Imagine if over 50% of your customers disappearedwithin 4 years.• New Jersey consistently had over 20,000 singlefamily residential permits issued every year between1995 and 2005.• Between 2005 and 2009 the number drops to 7,211permits issued.
NEWJERSEYHOUSINGMARKETPERCENT CHANGE IN SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 2002-2012Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
NOTAGREATSIGNPERCENT CHANGE IN SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 2010-2011Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
AHOPEFULSIGNPERCENT CHANGE IN SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 2011-2012Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)
HOUSEHUNTINGLOOKING INTO THE FUTURE• For the next five years slow population growth willmost likely reduce the need for new houses reducingextensive demand for utilities.• Over the next 20 years unless the economy of NewJersey picks up relative to the rest of the UnitedStates, housing and population are most likely goingto be growing at a rate of 3%.