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NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 2016 Hughes

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Presentation from New Economic and Demographic Normals

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NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 2016 Hughes

  1. 1. New Economic and Demographic Normals James W. Hughes, Dean 2016
  2. 2. Dr. Kevorkian
  3. 3. Late 20th Century Go-Go Economy Early 21st Century No-Go/Slow Go Economy
  4. 4. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) (24,800) 622,400 (260,100) 577,300 (58,200) 127,000 (259,000) 211,900 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present NumberofJobs 7 Months 83 Months 37 Months 104 Months 19 Months 66 Months 32 Months Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010 Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015 63 Months Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
  5. 5. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) (24,800) 622,400 (260,100) 577,300 (58,200) 127,000 (259,000) 211,900 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present NumberofJobs 7 Months 83 Months 37 Months 104 Months 19 Months 66 Months 32 Months Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010 Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015 63 Months Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
  6. 6. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster (Total employment change for periods indicated) (24,800) 622,400 (260,100) 577,300 (58,200) 127,000 (259,000) 211,900 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present NumberofJobs 7 Months 83 Months 37 Months 104 Months 19 Months 66 Months 32 Months Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010 Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015 63 Months Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.
  7. 7. New Jersey has a long history of adapting to a changing economic climate. From its colonial origins to the present day, New Jersey's economy has continuously and successfully confronted the challenges and uncertainties of technological and demographic change, placing the state at the forefront of each national and global economic era. Based on James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca’s nearly three-decade-long Rutgers Regional Report series, New Jersey’s Postsuburban Economy presents the issues confronting the state and brings to the forefront ideas for meeting these challenges. Suffice it to say, “A view of New Jersey’s past, present and future economy by two of the state’s most respected scholars. Should be a must-read for anybody hoping to shape future economic policy.” —Governor Thomas H. Kean, Governor of New Jersey, 1982-1990 "If you are interested in New Jersey's economy, its history, its recent and present condition, and knowledgeable projections as to where it's going, Jim Hughes and Joe Seneca should be your go-to guys. Their clear and easy-to-read writing style makes economics almost enjoyable." —James J. Florio, governor of New Jersey, 1990-1994 Link to the Rutgers University Press website bit.ly/nj-postsuburban
  8. 8. The Great Era of Suburbanization Past
  9. 9. A Postsuburban Population Geography
  10. 10. FIGURE 2 Counties with Population Decline, 2010-2014
  11. 11. FIGURE 2 Counties with Population Decline, 2010-2014
  12. 12. A Postsuburban Economic Geography
  13. 13. Reversal of Economic Fortune
  14. 14. New Jersey and New York City Employment 1950-2004 1,656.8 3,999.1 3,468.2 3,550.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1950 2004 Thousands NJ NYC Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ratio NJ/NYC: 0.48 1.13
  15. 15. New Jersey and New York City: Employment Change 1950-2004 New Jersey +2,342,300 New York City +81,800
  16. 16. New Jersey and New York City: Employment Change 1950-2004 New Jersey +2,342,300 New York City +81,800 2004-2014 New Jersey -36,900 New York City +552,200
  17. 17. New Jersey and New York City Employment 1950-2014 1,656.8 3,999.1 3,962.2 3,468.2 3,550.0 4,102.2 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1950 2004 2014 Thousands NJ NYC Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisitcs. Ratio NJ/NYC: 0.48 1.13 0.97
  18. 18. A Shrinking Outer Suburban Office Footprint
  19. 19. The Great 1980s Office Building Boom
  20. 20. The Official New Jersey State Bird
  21. 21. 1980’s Official State Bird
  22. 22. Suburban Office Agglomeration
  23. 23. Merck – White House Station
  24. 24. Merck
  25. 25. Lessons for the Garden State from the Nutmeg State
  26. 26. Aetna – Middletown, Connecticut
  27. 27. DECONSTRUCTION A New Suburban Office Normal?
  28. 28. • Maturing Baby Boom – Redefining Maturity/Exiting the Workforce • GEN Y/Millennials/Echo-Boomers – Redefining the Workforce/Workplace The Greatest Age Structure Transformation in History
  29. 29. Inter-Generational Tensions in the Workplace
  30. 30. The Largest Generation in U.S. History
  31. 31. Resizing in the Housing Market
  32. 32. BABY BOOM: REINVENTING MATURITYa The 2016 Calamity by Boom Reinventing Maturity • First Boomers are turning 70 years of age • All Boomers will be between 52 and 70 years of age • More than one-half of all Boomers will be in their 60s
  33. 33. We will not fade away quietly! Source: Christian Science Monitor
  34. 34. Echo Boomers: 1977-1995oom: Millennials: 1980-2000
  35. 35. Generation “Y” Today: We Want 24-7 LWP Environments
  36. 36. The Digerati
  37. 37. • Joshua Bright for The New York Times
  38. 38. Home of the Edward J. Bloustein School

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