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NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 2017 Lund

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Understanding Your Market for Redevelopment

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NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 2017 Lund

  1. 1. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment Data Analysis for Downtown Revitalization Approach and Lessons Learned NJ Future Redevelopment Forum March 10, 2017 Tina Lund, AICP Principal Urbanomics, Inc.
  2. 2. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Project Approach: Madison Downtown Revitalization Study Kickoff and Review of Existing/Ongoing Plans & Studies Inventories and Market Analysis: Unmet Existing and Forecasted Demand Planning, Zoning, and Development Context Gateway, Design, Branding and Wayfinding Draft Recommendations and Final Report Ongoing: Community and Stakeholder Engagement
  3. 3. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Inventory of Existing Businesses Inventory and Mapping of Off-street & On-street Parking Supply and Regulations Overview of Community and Regional Economy Estimation of Unmet Existing and Future Demand Inventories and Market Analysis: Unmet Existing and Forecasted Demand
  4. 4. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK  Define Existing Conditions  Confirm or Refute Perceptions  High numbers of vacancies  Substandard share of retail storefronts  Identify Opportunities for Improvement  Unmet demand  Business Mix  Real Estate Purpose of Market Analysis
  5. 5. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Study Area
  6. 6. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK  CoStar  REIS  Local MLS and Brokers  Garden State MLS  Keller Williams Data Sources: Real Estate Source: CoStar.com Retail Trends
  7. 7. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK  US Census  American Community Survey  Longitudinal Employer Household Dataset  ESRI Business Analyst Online Data Sources: Demographics and Consumer Expenditures Source: US Census Bureau’s OnTheMap Longitudinal Employer Household Dataset Employment Heat Map Madison Borough, 2014
  8. 8. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK  Reference USA  ESRI Business Analyst Online  Fieldwork Data Sources: Retail and Other Business Activity Source: ESRI Business Analyst, Retail Marketplace data $50.3 $23.6 $17.9 $17.4 $11.1 $6.7 $4.2 $1.5 $1.5 $0.2 $(1.7) $(11.6) $(18.9) $(50.5) $(60.0) $(40.0) $(20.0) $- $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Restaurants/Other Eating Places Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores Gasoline Stations Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores Special Food Services Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Grocery Stores $Millions Surplus/Incoming Leakage/Outgoing
  9. 9. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Data Sources: Business Mix Source: ESRI Business Analyst, Retail Marketplace data Downtown Madison Madison 5-Mile Chatham Florham Park Morristown Maplewood Retail Trade 17.0% 13.8% 12.7% 11.2% 7.7% 8.5% 13.2% Other Services (except Public Administration) 13.9% 11.9% 10.0% 13.6% 7.6% 10.1% 15.6% Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 10.4% 10.9% 12.5% 12.3% 18.3% 15.5% 10.2% Finance & Insurance 9.1% 8.0% 8.2% 8.5% 13.9% 9.4% 5.1% Accommodation & Food Services 9.1% 7.0% 5.3% 5.3% 3.7% 7.0% 5.9% Construction 7.8% 8.4% 8.1% 7.6% 5.5% 5.0% 6.7% Public Administration 6.1% 4.8% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 6.6% 1.7% Health Care & Social Assistance 5.7% 7.3% 9.9% 8.8% 14.7% 13.3% 10.9% Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 4.8% 6.6% 5.2% 3.1% 5.8% 3.2% 3.5% Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.1% 5.4% 4.0% Unclassified Establishments 3.0% 3.9% 5.0% 5.7% 4.8% 5.4% 6.1% Educational Services 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 5.0% 1.5% 1.9% 4.2% Transportation & Warehousing 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% Manufacturing 1.3% 1.4% 2.7% 3.9% 2.5% 1.4% 2.1% Wholesale Trade 0.9% 1.6% 2.9% 1.8% 3.2% 1.4% 3.5% Information 0.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 2.7% Management of Companies & Enterprises 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online
  10. 10. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Inventory of Existing Businesses 17.0% 13.9% 10.4% 9.1% 9.1% 7.8% 6.1% 5.7% 4.8% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 18.9% 14.8% 18.0% 7.8% 14.3% 4.5% 0.0% 7.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 5.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% ESRI BAO FIELD COUNT
  11. 11. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Pros and Cons of Data Free and Pay-Based Sources  Pros  Expedient  Cost Effective  Universal Basis for Comparison  Things to Take into Account  Study Area Alignment  Sample Size  Data Lag
  12. 12. Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK Final Thought Data analysis is invaluable to any redevelopment assessment BUT do not accept any source without question— CHECK YOUR DATA!!

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