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NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 2017 Lane

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Understanding Your Market for Redevelopment

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NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 2017 Lane

  1. 1. UNDERSTANDING YOUR MARKET FOR REDEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY MARCH 10, 2017
  2. 2. 1987 Somerset County Master Plan Land Use Management Map OVERVIEW
  3. 3. 2014 Somerset County Master Plan County Investment Framework Map OVERVIEW
  4. 4. OVERVIEW County Investment Framework Goals  Support ongoing regional and local smart growth, preservation, economic revitalization, sustainability and resiliency planning initiatives  Achieve tactical alignment of land use, infrastructure and preservation plans, resources, programs, policies and investment decisions  Convey a clear investment message regarding local and regional land use priorities to both public and private sectors
  5. 5.  Somerset County Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy  Supporting Priority Investment in Somerset County through Access and Mobility Improvements  Supporting Priority Investment in Somerset County Phases I,II, and III OVERVIEW
  6. 6. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1 KEY FINDINGS  Socio-economic Analysis  Improvement to Land Value Analysis  Labor and Industry Analysis  Business Inventory and Industry Cluster Analysis  Real Estate Supply and Demand Analysis  Transportation and Utility Infrastructure Analysis  Baseline Conditions: Land Use  Assessment of Land Use Policies & Workforce Housing  Build-out Analysis
  7. 7. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS  Household and population growth flat through 2018  Demand for Senior and multi-family housing dominates  Median Household Income is among the highest in the Nation IMPROVEMENT TO LAND VALUE ANALYSIS:  Low ILV Commercial land comprise 18% of all Commercial acreage and Industrial Land comprise 17% of all Industrial acreage within PGIAs. Low ILV Low ILV Concentrations occur in the following PGIAs:  I-287 Industrial Complex, Franklin  Meister Ave. /North Branch Station, Branchburg  VA Depot, Hillsborough 
  8. 8. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1 LABOR AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS  Unemployment rates lower than the State, but still higher than pre-recession levels  New jobs will come from replacement openings, rather than new job creation  Growth in the health care and social assistance industry will grow fastest BUSINESS INVENTORY AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS  Over 80% of available and rentable commercial, office and industrial space falls within PGIAs  The highest number of large businesses & facilities are found in the Regional Center, Green Brook Route 22 Corridor and Hamilton St./Renaissance Area
  9. 9. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1 REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: RESIDENTIAL  Demand for new units is expected to exceed the number of new units to be constructed in the future  Demand for smaller, entry-level multi-family and rental housing will grow  Delivery of workforce housing is dependent on local land use policies, and is an economic development imperative REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: OFFICE  Office Vacancy Rate in Somerset County rose to 26.6 % in 2013, exceeding surrounding areas  The existing inventory of office space should more than satisfy new demand, assuming it can be reconfigured to meet today’s smaller space requirements  A 20% vacancy rate is projected for 2015
  10. 10. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1 REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: INDUSTRY  Vacancy rate is lower than in surrounding central and north Jersey counties  Large and growing industrial space inventory with an overall vacancy rate of 5.7% REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: RETAIL  7.3 million sq. ft. of retail space Countywide  The projected combined vacancy rate for retail space is above 10 percent for 2017, and currently exceeds that of nearby counties  As retail space becomes obsolescent, repurposing strategies will be needed
  11. 11. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1 ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE POLICIES & WORKFORCE HOUSING  Complex PGIAs with diverse zoning districts may have a combination of both adequate and inadequate zoning policies  PGIA-specific recommendations include increasing FAR and/or residential densities and mixed-use opportunities BUILDOUT ANALYSIS  Additional capacity for growth exists in all PGIAs – but at different levels  Redevelopment and re-use represents the greatest potential for new residential growth  Development of vacant land represents the greatest opportunity for commercial and industrial growth within PGIAs 
  12. 12. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2 Market Assessment  Based on CoStar data, demographics and employment data  Assessment of land use categories and vacancy rates  Analysis of office vacancy, job growth, absorption rates  Comparison to 5 surrounding counties  Evaluate market trends  Identify opportunities for targeted development
  13. 13. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2 Office and Retail  Vacancy among the highest in region  Projected employment growth lower than all but Union Co.  Currently available vacancies exceed demand through 2035  Points to need for innovative strategies for re-use Mixed-use and restaurant uses  Account for smallest share of space, but lowest vacancy  Vacancy rates low throughout the region  Region-wide opportunity
  14. 14. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2 Warehousing and Light Industry  Accounts for 23.6% of rentable space in Somerset  Lacks connections to NJ Turnpike of nearby counties  Middlesex dominates regional warehousing market  Somerset positioned for small industry and warehousing  Somerset has 2nd lowest warehousing vacancy rate Manufacturing  Accounts for 10.4% of rentable area  Comparable to surrounding counties
  15. 15. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2
  16. 16. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2
  17. 17. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 3 Market Assessment Source: REIS 2016
  18. 18. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 3 Market Assessment Source: REIS 2016
  19. 19. SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 3
  20. 20. IMPLEMENTATION SUCCESS STORIES  Outlined a Consensus Vision for Somerset County’s Future  Resources and Information to Inform Local Decision Makers  Strengthened Linkages Between Master Plan Elements and Planning Initiatives  Municipal Master Plan and Zoning Ordinance Reviews and Updates  Leveraged Additional Grant Resources
  21. 21. QUESTIONS? For more information, please contact: Walter C. Lane, AICP/PP Director of Planning Somerset County Planning Division (908) 231-7021 lane@co.somerset.nj.us

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