Based partly on Leon Festinger ,When Prophecy Fails, originally published in
    1956 and co-authored by Henry W. Riecken ...
Leon Festinger ,When Prophecy Fails, 1956
“I belief that
                      “The present crisis
politicians and the
                       is a clear sign of
   ...
“Irving your      “I am absolutely
Beliefs are all     sure I am right!
    wrong!        Bob I disagree with
Look at thes...
“I know the
                                   earth is a globe.
                                   I sailed around it
quo...
Commandant Ziereis
                                                                      of Mauthausen
                   ...
“We have all
 experienced the
  uselessness of
 trying to change
strong convictions,
 especially if the
 convinced person
...
“Why do we protect our convictions, in the
 face of the toughest attacks.”
 Because we believe things intensely
 we are co...
Now lets suppose that we are
presented with undeniable evidence,
that the beliefs are wrong:

        what will happen?
“We will frequently emerge, not only
unshaken, but even more convinced of
the truth of our beliefs than ever
before.

“Ind...
 Yet, we will still
experience tremendous
 cognitive dissonance.

  What is COGNITIVE DISSONANCE?

  the mental conflict ...
1.Give up the belief.
        “But frequently the commitment is so
        strong that that is not possible




2. Retain...
Throughout History more than 220
Dates for the End of the world have
             been set

              and
         We ...
But when they persecute you in this city, flee
 ye into another: for verily I say unto you, Ye
shall not have gone over th...
The end of the world would happen in
                                    Montanus lifetime.

                          The...
1260 End of the World and Christ’s Return
Joachim of Fiore (ca. A.D. 1135 1202) wrote Exposition on Revelation, 1183.
Late...
Michael Stifel, a German associate of
Martin Luther, urged his band of
followers to sell all their property after
becoming...
Christ’s will return
on
 Easter, April 5,
      1534
according to Jan
Mattijs at Munster
(Gary K. Waite quot;David Joris a...
The Old
                    Believers in
                  Russia believed
                  the end of the
              ...
Isaac Newton
   expected Christ’s
   Coming in 1715,
     based on a note in his
    research on the Law of
           Gra...
John Wesley wrote that quot;the
   time, times and half a timequot; of
    Revelation 12:14 were 1058­
     1836, quot;whe...
Johann Albrecht Bengel
        (1687-1752)

Christ returns in
  1836 and the
Millennium begins
(Luther Martin, Date Setter...
The Shakers, believed that
                       the world will end by 1792




Canterbury Shaker Village
Britain's Rev
                  Edward Irving

                 predicted that
                Christ will return
        ...
•27 March 1836 Dedication of the First Temple at
 “I prophesy in the name of the Lord God, and let it be written--the
Kirt...
It was all going
to end in 1982,
 when the planets
   lined up and
created magnetic
forces that would
bring Armageddon
  t...
ANNOUNCING... quot;ONE OF THE
MOST ASTOUNDING BOOKS
OF THE GENERATION.quot;


  Colin Deal,
 Christ Returns
   by 1988.
  ...
In s t e a d : E x p a n s io n o f t h e
Mo ve m e nt
    The world did not ended, Christ did
 not return but the Adventi...
• Some disillusioned followers returned to their former
  churches
• Some abandoned Christianity completely
• Others belie...
Charles Taze Russell
Captivated by Adventist preaching on
Christ’s Second Coming

Joined staff of Adventist publication
“H...
“Judge” Rutherford 1869-1942
                   When Russell died Rutherford the
                   lawyer took over the ...
 
    *The Rev. Charles Taze Russell,
Rutherford and his followers
predicted that Christ would return /
Armageddon and the...
Instead: Expansion of the Movement
     
     The Jehovah's Witnesses, founded by Russell, now
 number more than 3.5 milli...
The unease or tension that the conflict between belief
and new information arouses in a person is relieved by
one of sever...
What Happens when Prophecy Fails and Facts Collide with Beliefs?
What Happens when Prophecy Fails and Facts Collide with Beliefs?
What Happens when Prophecy Fails and Facts Collide with Beliefs?
What Happens when Prophecy Fails and Facts Collide with Beliefs?
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What Happens when Prophecy Fails and Facts Collide with Beliefs?

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  • What Happens when Prophecy Fails and Facts Collide with Beliefs?

    1. 1. Based partly on Leon Festinger ,When Prophecy Fails, originally published in 1956 and co-authored by Henry W. Riecken and Stanley Schachter
    2. 2. Leon Festinger ,When Prophecy Fails, 1956
    3. 3. “I belief that “The present crisis politicians and the is a clear sign of news media the imminent exaggerate the collapse of the present global western world” crisis ”
    4. 4. “Irving your “I am absolutely Beliefs are all sure I am right! wrong! Bob I disagree with Look at these your facts – they facts” are based on bad sources”
    5. 5. “I know the earth is a globe. I sailed around it quot;The facts are solo.” Donna Lange, simple, the 2005-07 earth is flat.“ Charles K. Johnson, president of the International Flat Earth Research Society.
    6. 6. Commandant Ziereis of Mauthausen Concentration Camp witnessed the death quot;there was not one Jew of many prisoners, killed in the gas most in the Gas chambers. It was all lies, Chamber” lies, lies. The Jews created the Holocaust…” Bishop Richard Willamson Speech at Notre-Dame-de Lourdes Church, Sherbrooke, Canada, 1989 Holocaust Denier Bishop Richard Williamson Reinstated By Pope | Huffington Post
    7. 7. “We have all experienced the uselessness of trying to change strong convictions, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his belief”
    8. 8. “Why do we protect our convictions, in the face of the toughest attacks.” Because we believe things intensely we are committed to our beliefs and have taken irrevocable actions because of it The beliefs are part of our self concept and identity.
    9. 9. Now lets suppose that we are presented with undeniable evidence, that the beliefs are wrong: what will happen?
    10. 10. “We will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of our beliefs than ever before. “Indeed, we may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to our views.” Leon Festinger ,When Prophecy Fails, 1956
    11. 11.  Yet, we will still experience tremendous cognitive dissonance. What is COGNITIVE DISSONANCE? the mental conflict that occurs when beliefs or assumptions are contradicted by new information
    12. 12. 1.Give up the belief. “But frequently the commitment is so strong that that is not possible 2. Retain the belief through: Rationalizing, reinterpretation Corroboration/support from like-minded others, and/or convincing outsiders to believe what we believe.
    13. 13. Throughout History more than 220 Dates for the End of the world have been set and We are still here
    14. 14. But when they persecute you in this city, flee ye into another: for verily I say unto you, Ye shall not have gone over the cities of Israel, till the Son of man be come. – Matthew 10:23 Truly I say to you, there are some of those who are standing here who shall not taste death until they see the Son of Man coming in his kingdom – Matthew 16:28, Mark 9:1, Luke 9:27 quot;Heaven and earth will pass away, but My words shall not pass away. But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone.quot; Jesus Christ. Mathew 24:35-36
    15. 15. The end of the world would happen in Montanus lifetime. The Lord will return to Pepuza in Phrygia and set up the New Jerusalem. Phrygia, Pepuza Montanist New Jerusalem
    16. 16. 1260 End of the World and Christ’s Return Joachim of Fiore (ca. A.D. 1135 1202) wrote Exposition on Revelation, 1183. Later near the end of his life, he summarized his prophetic knowledge in the Book of Figures. His followers concluded that the quot;Age of Gracequot; would end and the quot;Age of the Spiritquot; would begin in A.D. 1260. Frederick II. Who ruled from 1220 to 1250 was the quot;Emperor of the Last Daysquot;
    17. 17. Michael Stifel, a German associate of Martin Luther, urged his band of followers to sell all their property after becoming convinced by his mathematical the end study of the Bible that of the world will take place Oct.3, 1533. On the appointed day he led his followers to the top of a hill so they could be delivered to heaven. (Luther Martin, Date Setters, Guardian of Truth, Sept. 15, 1994) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Stifel
    18. 18. Christ’s will return on Easter, April 5, 1534 according to Jan Mattijs at Munster (Gary K. Waite quot;David Joris and Dutch Anabaptism 1524-1543quot; Wilfrid Laurier University Press (Waterloo, Ontario), 1990.)
    19. 19. The Old Believers in Russia believed the end of the world would come in 1669 Cutting off an Old Believer’s beard” In 1698 20,000 burned themselves in their churches rather than give in.
    20. 20. Isaac Newton expected Christ’s Coming in 1715, based on a note in his research on the Law of Gravity (Luther Martin, Date Setters, Guardian of Truth, Sept. 15, 1994)
    21. 21. John Wesley wrote that quot;the time, times and half a timequot; of Revelation 12:14 were 1058­ 1836, quot;when Christ should come“ (A. M. Morris, The Prophecies Unveiled, p. 361) Charles Wesley Charles Wesley believed that the world was going to end John Wesley in 1794
    22. 22. Johann Albrecht Bengel (1687-1752) Christ returns in 1836 and the Millennium begins (Luther Martin, Date Setters, Guardian of Truth, Sept. 15, 1994)
    23. 23. The Shakers, believed that the world will end by 1792 Canterbury Shaker Village
    24. 24. Britain's Rev Edward Irving predicted that Christ will return in 1864 Forerunner of Catholic Apostolic Church Edward Irving
    25. 25. •27 March 1836 Dedication of the First Temple at “I prophesy in the name of the Lord God, and let it be written--the Kirtland, OH.not come in the clouds of heaven till I am eighty-five Son of Man will years old. (History of the Church, Vol.5, pp.336-37). Kirtland,Oh
    26. 26. It was all going to end in 1982, when the planets lined up and created magnetic forces that would bring Armageddon to the earth.
    27. 27. ANNOUNCING... quot;ONE OF THE MOST ASTOUNDING BOOKS OF THE GENERATION.quot; Colin Deal, Christ Returns by 1988. quot;When Your money failsquot; quot;This book will prove to you beyond a shadow of a doubt that we are in the last moments of time…”
    28. 28. In s t e a d : E x p a n s io n o f t h e Mo ve m e nt The world did not ended, Christ did not return but the Adventist Churches   today claims more than 20 million members worldwide.  
    29. 29. • Some disillusioned followers returned to their former churches • Some abandoned Christianity completely • Others believed that Jesus Christ had returned to earth on October 22, 1844, and that he is invisible. They believed the world did come to an end; however, the end happened differently than they expected. • Many reinterpreted the prophecy and went on to establish what would become known as the Adventist Churches. Jesus had entered into the quot;Most Holy Placequot; of the heavenly sanctuary, and began an “investigative judgmentquot; of the world. • Converted many as confirmation of belief. Groupthink, Consensus
    30. 30. Charles Taze Russell Captivated by Adventist preaching on Christ’s Second Coming Joined staff of Adventist publication “Herald of the Morning” in 1876 In 1894 he set 1914 for the return of Christ and beginning of millennium
    31. 31. “Judge” Rutherford 1869-1942  When Russell died Rutherford the lawyer took over the JW organization in 1917 In 1918 Rutherford and the Watchtower set Christ’s return for 1925 “Millions Now Living Will Never Die” -- article became book title two years later
    32. 32.   *The Rev. Charles Taze Russell, Rutherford and his followers predicted that Christ would return / Armageddon and the End of the World in: 1873 or 1874; 1881; 1914; 1918; 1925; 1975; 1984. No  one would be able to top their record of most wrong doomsday predictions. Sources: Jon R. Stone, Expecting Armageddon: Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy (Routledge: New York and London, 2000); www.watchtower.org
    33. 33. Instead: Expansion of the Movement   The Jehovah's Witnesses, founded by Russell, now number more than 3.5 million worldwide. They grow at a rate of about 5% per year worldwide and have over 9 million sympathizers!   Sources: Jon R. Stone, Expecting Armageddon: Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy (Routledge: New York and London, 2000); www.watchtower.org 1. Reinterpret with un-testable statement: Invisible return of Christ 2. Convert many as confirmation of belief. Groupthink, Consensus 3. Only 2% left after the failure of 1975
    34. 34. The unease or tension that the conflict between belief and new information arouses in a person is relieved by one of several defensive maneuvers: 3.We change our minds 4.We rejects the facts, 5.We explain away, rationalize 6.We avoids the new information, 7.We persuade ourselves that no conflict exists, 8.We seek likeminded people and convert others 9.We reverse the dissonance (The new information is the devils attack on the truth)

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