03 tourism research and forecasting


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03 tourism research and forecasting

  1. 1. 1 Tourism Research and Forecasting Dr. NimitChowdhary, Professor You want to open a resort! What should you know?  Where would you open the resort?  Is the location seasonal?  What type of resort will it be?  Will the resort have a theme or concept?  Who will potential guests be?  Who will be your competition?  Where are they located?
  2. 2. 2  Tourism research:  Aids tourism entities in the journey to finding the answers to these questions  As well as the many other questions that are sure to arise Introduction (cont’d.)  General goals for businesses:  Identify market trends  Unveil economic impact, occupancy trends, and general consumer behavior  Aids in creating additional sources of possible profits  Uncovers preexisting sources that are not profitable Research Goals
  3. 3. 3  Examines performance of certain areas in an operation  Monitors guest satisfaction  Assists in drawing attention to potential problems Research Goals (cont’d.)  For consumers:  Aids in the decision-making process  Rating systems are used as a guide  American Automobile Association (AAA) five diamond rating system Research Goals (cont’d.)
  4. 4. 4  Descriptive research (i.e., statistical research)  Aims to answer who, what, where, when, and why?  Used to describe characteristics  Focuses on a particular variable (e.g., consumer habits)  Does not aim to uncover causation  Does not influence variables Categories of Research  Analytical research (i.e., explanatory research)  Seeks to uncover causation  Once a pattern has been uncovered:  Hypothesis may be derived  Influencing factors are examined further  Not generalizable  Specific to the circumstance Categories (cont’d.)
  5. 5. 5  Predictive research  Aims to make a prediction about an occurrence  Based on past behaviors, attitudes, demographics, and generalized phenomena Categories (cont’d.) About Tourism Research and Forecasting  Tourism research is an objective, systematic and logical investigating of travel related problems.  Tourism research has become increasingly important to assist decision making and planning for the tourism product.  In the fast changing international tourism environment, tourism planners and managers need to respond sufficiently to external challenges.
  6. 6. 6 Tourism Research  Tourism research can help both public and private organizations to formulate policies and establish priorities.  Research is also invaluable for marketing and promotional campaigns and forms the basis for successful strategic marketing plans.  Tourism research can also be used to develop new researches by identifying new markets, new products, and new uses for established products. The functions of tourism research Tourism Research  Identification of the problem  The identification of a problem may arise from observations of trends or behavior in visitors.  The value of the research process is in providing users with useful and relevant information that they can implement in their decision making process. The tourism research process
  7. 7. 7 Tourism Research Sources of information  The source of information: Primary data – secondary data  Secondary data: The data that have been gathered by someone other than the researcher or for other purposes.  Advantage: Low cost, time and convenience  Disadvantage: The data may not fit the problem that is being researched. Tourism Research  Primary data: Obtaining the necessary data from the original sources.  Types of surveys:  Factual surveys which pose questions to the respondent allowing an accurate answer rather than opinion.  Opinion surveys which ask participants to express an opinion or make an appraisal.  Interpretative surveys which ask questions to gain insight into the subject’s psychological behavior. Sources of information
  8. 8. 8 Conducting a research;  Personal interviews or face-to-face interviews  Telephone interviews  Self-completed questionnaires  Focus group discussions  Electronic surveys (Web based surveys) Sources of information… Tourism Research Organizations Conducting Research Tourism Organizations  Tourism statistics:  WWorld TTourism OOrganization (WTO)  OOrganization for EEconomic CCooperation and DDevelopment (OECD)  PPacific AAsia TTravel AAssociation (PATA)  Sources  WWorld TTravel and TTourism CCouncil (WTTC)  IInternational AAssociation of SScientific EExperts in TTourism (AIEST)  EEconomic IIntelligence UUnit (EIU)
  9. 9. 9 Organizations Conducting Research Educational Institutions  Universities and colleges  Published in academic journals or presented in tourism conferences. Private organizations or firms  Large-scale industries conduct on-going studies for product development, feasibility and market trends.  Airlines  Hotels Relationship Between Marketing and Research Destination Marketing Research as a planning and evaluating tool  Necessity of research:  Trip and traveler characteristics  Inventories of accommodations, transportation modes, attractions and facilities.  Usage and load factors  Visitor motivation and satisfaction  Resident attitudes  Impacts on environment
  10. 10. 10 Relationship Between Marketing and Research  Tourism market research process involves:  Setting goals to some specific benefit, such as more visitors, more revenue or more tax dollars.  Identifying target audience  Developing strategies  Positioning  Competition  Pricing  Distributing  Promotion The tourism market research program Relationship Between Marketing and Research Accountability research for destination marketing  “Sound measurement of the degree or the extent to which stated goals of a specific marketing effort are being or were achieved”  Four areas to research:  Is the campaign bringing about the desired change (s)?  Is the campaign changing the target market?  Is the appropriate measures of change being used?  Is the measure of change sufficiently precise to adequately measure the projected campaign results?
  11. 11. 11 Relationship Between Marketing and Research Making research understandable to practitioners  Gap between research and business  Research that is not easily translatable into usable information because of unfamiliar terminology or methodologies.  Valuable results that are not used due to user resistance  Findings that are not sufficiently distributed to concerned parties.  Importance of communication  Communication between suppliers and users of research.  How tourism demand is measured  How to measure the actual demand  Elements of tourism demand  Factors that promote travel are called “propensities to travel”  Factors that discourage travel are called “resistances to travel”  Forecasting tourism demand  Quantitative methods  Qualitative methods The Importance of Forecasting Tourism Demand .