Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future
“We tend to over-estimate the effect of a technology in the short run and under-estimate the effect in the long run.”
Later quoted by Bill Gates and others.
A quote that well applies to bots.
Wikipedia definition of a bot is quite ambiguous;
“Bot” Chatterbot or Chat bot, a computer program that converses in natural language
Internet bot, a computer program that does automated tasks
That points to the fact that this is somethn new and not yet defined.
In order to analyse this new phenomenon, we need try and define it in some way. I have made an attempt
To analyse the impact of bot -, and also the timeline until it reaches impact in society –I have chosen to look at bots as 3 different pnenomna;
1. Input, how we communicate and interact with digital intelligence 2. Smartness – i.e. how intelligent bots, algorithms and AI is 3. Output – what the bot can do and move in the physical world.
The three represent a change in how we interact, how we make decisions, and how we divide out time in everyday life. They are also listed in the order I believe they will come to maturity and create impact in society.
First interaction, including areas such as;
UX Interaction design Speech recognition Chatbots Siri Alexa
Human computer interaction 1830-2015.
We see an acceleration in development.
The speech recognition is getting smarter, and we are going from just extracting information to engaging in conversation,
Siri vs Zoe
“Within the next four years, 50% of all searches are going to be either images or speech“ // Mary Meeker
This has an impact today: speac interaction is different than text interaction.
Amazon Echo Ad
“Over the last six months, CNN has rolled out a variety of chatbots across messaging apps like Kik, LINE, and Facebook Messenger as well as voice-activated devices like Amazon Echo. We’re constantly evolving these experiences as well as exploring chatbot experiments on new smart home and automobile platforms. We’ve seen the most growth on LINE, where our chatbot publishes a handful of international stories each week; we see high engagement on Kik, where our chatbots invite the audience to experience the news in a "choose-your-own-adventure” format; and we’ve observed the most experimentation on Facebook Messenger and Amazon Alexa, where people can ask and receive responses to open-ended questions about the news.”
“This week, ModiFace announced that they’ll be introducing a chatbot on Facebook messenger. It’ll work how we imagine most chatbots will work — by sending a message through Facebook Messenger to the brand name. Users will be able to ask the ModiFace chatbot about a number of makeup products, differentiated by brand, color, or shade. In all, the chatbot will have knowledge of some 20,000 beauty products, a number that figures to expand in the near future. And, that’s it — we now live in a world where you can try on makeup using Facebook Messenger!”
Food for thought
Smartness includes things like:
AI Machine learning Big data Predictive algorithms
AI will be huge – but we have still not seen many practical usages regarding marketing – what has reaced the public so far is mainly AI playing chess and Go..
But it will find more applications. As all things get connected there are huge amounts of data being generated that can be analysed.
And we are not protected in our industry..
McCann Japan testing an AI against their creative director..
Food for thought
Selfdriving cars Delivery bots Drones Boston dynamics Smart homes
Connected home – all things will be connected. Bots and algorithms will control lights, heating, cars, calendars, locks.
We definitely have a ways to go..
..and today we are hesitating to let self driving cars out into traffic. But if we consider self driving cars learn collectively, 5000 cars that drive for a year have gotten 5000 years experience in driving.
If we compare that to a human getting a maximum of 80 years experience in a year – who is the most dangerous letting out on the road?
And in terms of executIng physical services, the area of deliveries is extra relevant to marketers.
Europe's biggest online takeaway food company Just Eat has partnered with Starship Technologies, makers of slow moving pavement droids, to deliver food with robots on the streets of London later this month. So if deliveries are super cheap and efficient – what happens to retail.
Food for thought
So bots will cange everything. How we interact with the internet and with brands, how we make decisions, and how we look at work and leisure in our everyday lives.
Some things will happen now, and some in the longer term. But the impact will be massive.
Stockholm Mediaweek Isobar keynote_bots
ARE YOU A BOT?
Nils Andersson Wimby, Agency Director, Isobar Sweden
We tend to over-
estimate the effect of a
technology in the short
run and under-estimate
the effect in the long run.
A robot is a machine—especially one
programmable by a computer—
capable of carrying out a complex
series of actions automatically.
• In 2014, voice search traffic was
negligible. Today it exceeds 10% of all
• Siri, Google & Cortana exceeded
50Bvoice searches per month
• Amazon Echo became the fastest-
selling bluetooth speaker in history.
• By 2020, over 200 billion searches per
month will be done with voice.
Who’s going to work with this?How do you do SEO for Alexa?Who is going to own the “app store” of
the smart home?
How will AI change the consumer journey
from attraction to conversion?
How can we apply AI and machine learning to
marketing and advertising?
Who owns the data?
Hur kommer vi konsumera media
i en självkörande bil?
Hur blir det om man jobbar med
bilkunder? Eller försäkringsbolag?
Vad händer med retail när
hemleverans sköts snabbt och billigt
Vad skall vi göra med all tid?
Bots will change everything
Interaction Decision making Work
Nils Andersson Wimby, Agency
Director, Isobar Sweden