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2018 to 2030: The Mobility Revolution (China Edition)

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Nikolas looks at trends in technology, the automotive industry, mobility, electric vehicles, automated vehicles, the luxury market, and the impacts to the aftermarket across North America and China. Nikolas makes some bold predictions that may surprise you.

For more of Nikolas' insights go to www.nikolasbadminton.com

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2018 to 2030: The Mobility Revolution (China Edition)

  1. 1. Nikolas Badminton Futurist & Researcher 2018 to 2030: The Mobility Revolution.
  2. 2. Te c h n o l o g y A u t o m o t i v e E v o l u t i o n . T h e A f t e r m a r k e t . T h e Fu t u r e . 2
  3. 3. 3 Technology.
  4. 4. Source: United Nations, 2015 6 Billion
  5. 5. http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/
  6. 6. Data is the new oil. 7
  7. 7. 9 Automotive evolution.
  8. 8. 10 Vehicles.
  9. 9. 11 1817 1997 2008 1885
  10. 10. 12 Solar and electrification.
  11. 11. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/carbon-dioxide-concentration-atmosphere-highest-level-800000-years-mauna-loa-observatory-hawaii-a8337921.html 13 Carbon dioxide levels in Earth's atmosphere reach 'highest level in 800,000 years'
  12. 12. http://breakingenergy.com/2015/05/11/thin-film-solar-cell-industry-in-transition-knockout-phase-is-over-profitability-and-vertical-integration-next/http://www.vox.com/2015/6/9/8748081/us-100-percent-renewable-energy 14
  13. 13. 15
  14. 14. 16https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/chart-of-the-day-the-world-will-add-70-000-solar-panels-every-hour-in-the-next-5-years/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/07/06/panda-power-china-building-worlds-cutest-solar-station/
  15. 15. 17https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/chart-of-the-day-the-world-will-add-70-000-solar-panels-every-hour-in-the-next-5-years/ 70,000 per hour https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/07/06/panda-power-china-building-worlds-cutest-solar-station/
  16. 16. 18 https://inhabitat.com/german-scientists-double-the-efficiency-of-black-silicon-for-use-in-solar-cells/
  17. 17. 19
  18. 18. 20https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/07/all-the-details-on-teslas-giant-australian-batteryt/
  19. 19. https://newatlas.com/geidco-global-interconnected-energy-grid/46411/#gallery Japan, South Korea, Russia and China
  20. 20. https://newatlas.com/geidco-global-interconnected-energy-grid/46411/#gallery
  21. 21. Electric vehicles. 23
  22. 22. Toyota $168bn Daimler $71bn VW $87bn BMW $60bn Tesla $50bn 25
  23. 23. N i s s a n L e a f C h e v y B o l t B M W M i n i E S u b a r u V o l v o V o l k s w a g e n I . D . C r o z z 26
  24. 24. 1,204 kms
  25. 25. O n l y e l e c t r i c c a r s w i l l b e s o l d f r o m t h e y e a r 2 0 2 5 . 28https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/12/norway-ready-100-evs-2025-please-dont-charge-thursday-nights/
  26. 26. 29 $90 billion https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-electric/global-carmakers-to-invest-at-least-90-billion-in-electric-vehicles-idUSKBN1F42NW
  27. 27. 30 $48 billion in battery cell contracts (and, VW makes more cars in four days than Tesla does in a year.) http://fortune.com/go/autos/vw-tesla-electric-car-batteries/
  28. 28. 31https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/industry-news/bmw-unveils-electric-car-plans-for-2021-andbeyond/article37703938/
  29. 29. 32 800 hp https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/industry-news/bmw-unveils-electric-car-plans-for-2021-andbeyond/article37703938/
  30. 30. T h e L i t h i u m - g l a s s B a tt e r y w i l l i n c r e a s e e n e r g y d e n s i t y t h r e e - f o l d 33
  31. 31. 34
  32. 32. 35https://www.nanalyze.com/2017/03/8-electric-car-startups/
  33. 33. 36
  34. 34. 38 CHINA 中国
  35. 35. 39 Q U A L I T Y
  36. 36. h t t p s : / / w w w. m c k i n s e y. c o m / g l o b a l - t h e m e s / a s i a - p a c i f i c / g e t t i n g - t o - k n o w - c h i n a s - p r e m i u m - c a r - m a r k e t 40 C h i n e s e c a r b u y e r s a r e w i l l i n g t o p a y f o r l o o k s a n d p o w e r. B u t , a r e l o o k s a n d p o w e r c h a n g i n g ?
  37. 37. 2 0 1 7 w a s a g o o d y e a r f o r l u x u r y c a r s a l e s i n C h i n a . 41
  38. 38. 42h t t p s : / / j i n g d a i l y. c o m / l u x u r y - c a r - m a r k e t - s h a k e - u p - c h i n a / S o l d 3 0 4 , 0 0 0 c a r s i n t h e f i r s t s i x m o n t h s , 3 4 % m o r e t h a n t h e s a m e p e r i o d l a s t y e a r. S o l d 2 9 3 , 0 0 0 c a r s i n t h e f i r s t s i x m o n t h s a n d a n 1 8 - p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e . h t t p s : / / j i n g d a i l y. c o m / l u x u r y - c a r - m a r k e t - s h a k e - u p - c h i n a /
  39. 39. 43h t t p s : / / j i n g d a i l y. c o m / l u x u r y - c a r - m a r k e t - s h a k e - u p - c h i n a / 7 1 % s a l e s i n c r e a s e 9 7 % g r o w t h
  40. 40. T h e l u x u r y c a r l a n d s c a p e w i l l c h a n g e i n C h i n a o v e r t h e n e x t 1 0 y e a r s . 44
  41. 41. 45https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/26/china-leading-the-way-to-electric-car-future-byd-bmw-highlight-beijing-auto-show/ L U X U R Y A L L- E L E C T R I C
  42. 42. 46https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/26/china-leading-the-way-to-electric-car-future-byd-bmw-highlight-beijing-auto-show/ L U X U R Y A L L- E L E C T R I C
  43. 43. 47 h t t p s : / / m a s h a b l e . c o m / 2 0 1 8 / 0 4 / 2 5 / c h i n a - e l e c t r i c - v e h i c l e s - t e s l a - b e i j i n g - a u t o - s h o w / # j o l e 6 e P k y i q u
  44. 44. 48https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-27/china-s-drive-to-become-the-detroit-of-electric-cars-quicktake
  45. 45. “ C h i n a a c c o u n t e d f o r m o r e t h a n h a l f o f w o r l d w i d e s a l e s l a s t y e a r.” C h i n a Pa s s e n g e r C a r A s s o c i a t i o n 49http://www.cpca1.org/
  46. 46. 2 0 3 5 : T h e ‘ E l e c t r i c D r a g o n ’ ( F i r s t A l l E l e c t r i c Ve h i c l e E c o s y s t e m ) 50
  47. 47. 51https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2018/03/06/china-could-be-the-worlds-first-all-electric-vehicle-ecosystem/#31f4e046130f
  48. 48. 52https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2018/03/06/china-could-be-the-worlds-first-all-electric-vehicle-ecosystem/#31f4e046130f
  49. 49. " S a l e s v o l u m e s f o r n e w - e n e r g y v e h i c l e s e x c e e d e d 7 0 0 , 0 0 0 l a s t y e a r, a n d t h i s n u m b e r i s f u r t h e r e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e t o m o r e t h a n 2 m i l l i o n i n 2 0 2 0 , a n d t o m o r e t h a n 5 m i l l i o n i n 2 0 2 5 , " Ke v i n L i , S t r a t e g y A n a l y t i c s . 53https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/expectations-are-high-for-electric-vehicles-in-china.html
  50. 50. “ 2 0 3 5 - C h i n e s e c i t i e s a r e l i k e l y t o g o a l l - e l e c t r i c , b a n n i n g i n t e r n a l c o m b u s t i o n e n g i n e s c o m p l e t e l y.” 54https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2018/03/06/china-could-be-the-worlds-first-all-electric-vehicle-ecosystem/#31f4e046130f
  51. 51. 55 Over 1,000 smart city pilot projects are ready for or are under construction worldwide. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-has-highest-number-of-smart-city-pilot-projects-report/articleshow/62998738.cms
  52. 52. 56 I N D E P E N D E N C E
  53. 53. 57 Mobility Revolutions.
  54. 54. Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n a s a s e r v i c e . 58
  55. 55. 60h t t p s : / / w w w . t h e v e r g e . c o m / 2 0 1 8 / 3 / 1 5 / 1 7 1 2 7 0 0 2 / l y f t - a l l - a c c e s s - m o n t h l y - s u b s c r i p t i o n
  56. 56. C a r s u b s c r i p t i o n s e r v i c e t h a t a l l o w s c u s t o m e r s t o s w a p b e t w e e n u p t o 1 2 v e h i c l e s a y e a r f o r a s i n g l e m o n t h l y p a y m e n t . 61https://www.assetfinanceinternational.com/index.php/technology/technology-archive/technology-articles/16656-mercedes-benz-bank-to-launch-app-based-car-subscription-service
  57. 57. 62https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/ford-all-electric-vehicle-ride-hailing-china/
  58. 58. 63 A N e - v e h i c l e s h a r i n g s e r v i c e w i t h 1 2 a u t o m a k e r s - G e e l y a n d B Y D, K i a M o t o r s , a n d t h e R e n a u l t - N i s s a n - M i t s u b i s h i A l l i a n c e . h t t p s : / / w w w. c n b c . c o m / 2 0 1 8 / 0 2 / 1 2 / e x p e c t a t i o n s - a r e - h i g h - f o r - e l e c t r i c - v e h i c l e s - i n - c h i n a . h t m l
  59. 59. 64 N o . o f t e s t r i d e s = 1 . 4 m i l l i o n i n 9 0 d a y s h t t p : / / w w w. s c m p . c o m / t e c h / e n t e r p r i s e s / a r t i c l e / 1 8 9 8 3 8 4 / l a t e s t - c h i n e s e - c r a z e - t e s t - d r i v i n g - n e w - m e r c e d e s - b e n z - a u d i - o r - l i n c o l n X
  60. 60. R i d e - s h a r i n g a n d r i d e - h a i l i n g s e r v i c e s a r e p r o j e c t e d t o g e n e r a t e a c o l l e c t i v e $ 1 t r i l l i o n i n r e v e n u e b y 2 0 4 0 ( g l o b a l l y ) . 65
  61. 61. 66 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/china-is-adding-a-london-sized-electric-bus-fleet-every-five-weeks/ 9 , 5 0 0 e l e c t r i c b u s e s e v e r y 5 w e e k s .
  62. 62. 67 Autonomous
  63. 63. 1997 2011 2017 2017
  64. 64. By 2030, AI is expected to provide a $15.7 trillion boost to GDP worldwide. 69http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-ai-effect-on-economy-2017-8
  65. 65. 70 3,287 deaths per day http://asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safety-facts/road-crash-statistics
  66. 66. 2021
  67. 67. 73https://www.theatlas.com/charts/BJLv3Z5ub
  68. 68. 74
  69. 69. " T h e r e a l i t y i s t h e r e w i l l b e m i s t a k e s a l o n g t h e w a y . A h u n d r e d o r 5 0 0 o r a t h o u s a n d p e o p l e c o u l d l o s e t h e i r l i v e s i n a c c i d e n t s l i k e w e ’ v e s e e n i n A r i z o n a .” To y o t a N o r t h A m e r i c a C E O J i m L e n t z 75
  70. 70. 8 3 % o f C h i n e s e a d u l t s a g r e e d w i t h t h e s t a t e m e n t “ I a m h o p e f u l a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f a u t o n o m o u s v e h i c l e s . ” 76https://qz.com/1211522/china-is-poised-to-be-the-leader-in-self-driving-cars/
  71. 71. 77https://qz.com/1211522/china-is-poised-to-be-the-leader-in-self-driving-cars/
  72. 72. 78https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/23/17156098/baidu-self-driving-car-test-permit-china 2020
  73. 73. 79 T h e y h a v e r e c e i v e d a p e r m i t t o t e s t i t s v e h i c l e s o n 3 3 r o a d s s p a n n i n g a r o u n d 6 5 m i l e s ( 1 0 5 k i l o m e t e r s ) i n t h e c i t y ’s l e s s - p o p u l a t e d s u b u r b s . https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/23/17156098/baidu-self-driving-car-test-permit-china
  74. 74. 80https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-25/china-seeks-its-own-brains-to-steer-30-million-autonomous-cars 30 million self-driving cars by 2028 in China.
  75. 75. 81 NVIDIA Drive PX
  76. 76. C h i n a h a s c r e a t e d a 2 0 0 b i l l i o n - y u a n f u n d f o r i n v e s t m e n t s i n h o m e g r o w n c h i p m a k e r s . 82https://qz.com/1211522/china-is-poised-to-be-the-leader-in-self-driving-cars/
  77. 77. T h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n m e n t e x p e c t s t o h a v e a m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y f o r p a r t s s u c h a s s e n s o r s a n d e m b e d d e d c h i p s w i t h a p r o d u c t i o n v a l u e e x c e e d i n g 1 0 0 b i l l i o n y u a n b y 2 0 2 0 . 83https://qz.com/1211522/china-is-poised-to-be-the-leader-in-self-driving-cars/
  78. 78. 84 The aftermarket.
  79. 79. 8 0 % o f a f t e r m a r k e t O E M s s a y t h e y a r e c u r r e n t l y n o t w e l l p r e p a r e d . 85https://www.mckinsey.de/files/170610_supplier_aftermarket.pdf
  80. 80. 86
  81. 81. “ C o n s u m e r s w i l l s t a r t t o c h o o s e E V o v e r t r a d i t i o n a l c o m b u s t i o n e n g i n e v e h i c l e s f a s t e r t h a n w e t h o u g h t .” U B S ’ E v i d e n c e L a b R e p o r t , 2 0 1 7 87https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170823121339.htm
  82. 82. 88
  83. 83. 89 35 vs. 167
  84. 84. 90 “The after-sales revenue pool could drop by ~60% or >$400 per vehicle per year.”
  85. 85. 92 X X EVs destroy this Autonomous vehicles affect this https://www.mckinsey.de/files/170610_supplier_aftermarket.pdf
  86. 86. I s i t t h e s a m e f o r C h i n a ? 93
  87. 87. 94https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/comparison-automotive-aftermarket-industry-usa-vs-china-ganster/
  88. 88. C o n n e c t e d , o n l i n e , a n d h a c k a b l e . 95
  89. 89. 96
  90. 90. 97
  91. 91. 98 Upgrades?
  92. 92. A m a z i n g e x p e r i e n c e s 99
  93. 93. 100https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_experience “Most people travel the same routes at the same times of day over and over again and are interested in using their travel time for something other than looking at whatever is currently visible out of the vehicle’s windows,”
  94. 94. S u p e r c a r s . 102
  95. 95. 103 C h i e f E x e c u t i v e O f f i c e r S e r g i o M a r c h i o n n e p r e d i c t s t h a t c a r m a k e r s w i l l h a v e l e s s t h a n a d e c a d e t o r e i n v e n t t h e m s e l v e s t o s u r v i v e i n t h e w o r l d o f n e w t e c h n o l o g i e s . h t t p s : / / w w w. b l o o m b e r g . c o m / n e w s / a r t i c l e s / 2 0 1 8 - 0 1 - 1 6 / f e r r a r i - h a s - p l a n s - t o - m a k e - a n - e l e c t r i c - s u p e r c a r - m a r c h i o n n e - s a y s
  96. 96. 104 M c L a r e n P 1 G T R - h y b r i d a n d e l e c t r i c ? https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/02/9-electric-supercars-racing-best/
  97. 97. 105 L a m b o r g h i n i ' s A l l - E l e c t r i c Te r z o M i l l e n n i o https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/02/9-electric-supercars-racing-best/
  98. 98. 106 T h e O w l - 0 - 6 0 m p h < 2 s e c o n d s https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/02/9-electric-supercars-racing-best/
  99. 99. 107 V a n d a D e n d r o b i u m https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/02/9-electric-supercars-racing-best/
  100. 100. 108 R o b o r a c e https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/02/9-electric-supercars-racing-best/
  101. 101. 109 The future?
  102. 102. 110 2025
  103. 103. S e l f - d r i v i n g t a x i s , t r a n s i t , a n d t r u c k s b e c o m e c o m m o n p l a c e . E V s s t a r t t o t a k e o v e r c o - o p e r a t i v e a n d o n - d e m a n d ( a u t o n o m o u s ) d r i v i n g s c h e m e s i n s m a r t c i t i e s . C h i n a ’ s t r a n s i t i o n f r o m o i l a n d g a s t o s o l a r a n d w i n d g a i n s p a c e . 111
  104. 104. T h e l u x u r y v e h i c l e w i l l b e r e d e f i n e d . 112
  105. 105. 113 2030
  106. 106. H u m a n - d r i v e n v e h i c l e s o u t l a w e d o n h i g h w a y s . R e p l a c e d b y o n - d e m a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . E V s c a n d r i v e 2 0 0 0 k m s o n a s i n g l e c h a r g e , a s s t a n d a r d . C h i n a i s t h e # 1 s o l a r e n e r g y p o w e r h o u s e . 114
  107. 107. L u x u r y v e h i c l e o w n e r s h i p w i l l b e r e d e f i n e d . 115
  108. 108. 116 2050
  109. 109. “We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future.” George Bernard Shaw 117
  110. 110. Welcome to the future
  111. 111. Nikolas Badminton Futurist & Researcher 2018 to 2030: The Mobility Revolution.
  112. 112. Nikolas Badminton Futurist & Researcher w: nikolasbadminton.com e: nik@nikolasbadminton.com t: @nikolasfuturist
  113. 113. 121 Nikolas Badminton, Futurist Vancouver / Toronto / London Nikolas is a world-respected futurist speaker, author, and researcher. He wows audiences with keynote speeches on the impact of exponential technologies including: Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality; Work Productivity; The Sharing Economy; Autonomous Transportation; Smart Cities; Education; The Future of AI integrated with Life and Business; and Predictions for humanity from 2018 to 2030, and beyond. Click here to contact him.

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