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The changing landscape of globalhigher education: why should we care    about the “Great Brain Race”?                    N...
Prologue24 May 2012   2
Overview• The institution of universities• The growth of higher education: public benefits vs private  gains• The globalis...
The institution of universities24 May 2012                       4
Even new universities look old…The University of Chester is one of theoldest English higher educationestablishments of any...
The expansion of UK higher education24 May 2012     Source: Robertson (2010)   6
A global phenomenon: percentage ofpopulation with tertiary education by age24 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glanc...
The drivers of higher education expansion• Public policy – social benefits of higher education – role of higher education ...
Public policy I: spillover benefits of highereducation •   Wide range of social benefits from graduates for     productivi...
Public policy II: higher education and the knowledge economy• “the knowledge economy is one in which the generation and  e...
Higher education and economic developmentin action              Per capita GDP US$              2005 prices24 May 2012    ...
Percentage of the population with tertiary education by age group revisited                                               ...
Korea’s top brands            WUR      QS Top 400 Universitiesand universities                              42       Seoul...
Brazil’s top brands          WUR QS Top 400 Universitiesand universities                             169      Universidade...
UNESCO’s world view• “At no time in human history was the welfare of nations so  closely linked to the quality and outreac...
The private gains from education•Employment•Lifetime earnings•Health status•Happiness24 May 2012                        16
Percentage of 24-65 year olds inemployment by level of education, 200924 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glance 201...
Private rate of return on higher education,200924 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011   18
24 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011   19
Q: Where can I work without a degree?24 May 2012                             20
A: McDonalds24 May 2012    21
It all adds up to a growing market               300               250               200    Millions               150    ...
The globalisation of higher education• As higher education has  expanded, it has also globalised• Increasing numbers of st...
Number of students studying outside theirown country24 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011   24
National market shares (2009)24 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011   25
International enrolments as a percentage oftotal (2009)24 May 2012   Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011   26
Stocktake• Higher education has expanded everywhere since 1960 and will  continue to grow rapidly• The expansion has been ...
1. Consumers• University and b-school league tables  originated in the US24 May 2012                               28
Rankings spread to the UK and then globally•UK league tables•Global league tables•20,639 universities world-wide24 May 201...
versus        THE World University Rankings 2011/12         QS World University Rankings 2011/12   1.   California Institu...
Webometrics world university ranking                               University of                         20369 Medical Sci...
University of Nottingham24 May 2012                32
Victims of league tablesProf Datuk Dr. Hashim Yaacob should resign as University of Malaya ViceChancellor not only for the...
2. Asia• Asia is the fastest growing, most  populous continent• All Asian countries are making  major investments in both ...
Asian government policy on export education• China: 500,000 international students by 2020, (250,000 in  2012) and above n...
The changing global division of labour              1980s              1990s24 May 2012                              36
Student World Fair• Asian universities are not only retaining more of their own students  and competing for international ...
And Asian universities increasingly competing for the top faculty…                      Estab. 2000Professor Arnoud DeMeye...
Victims of Asian competition24 May 2012                    39
3. Demographics                               in 2000                       in 2050                                       ...
Could be worse…                               in 2000                       in 2050                                       ...
India’s population pyramid in 200024 May 2012                                42                Source: US Census Bureau
…and India in 205024 May 2012                               43               Source: US Census Bureau
Victims of demographics24 May 2012               44
4. Private competitors• Private (not-for-profit) higher education is a major part of  higher education worldwide• The new ...
Leading private universities• United States: Harvard University, Columbia University,  Stanford University, Yale Universit...
…and the new kids on the block                    Laureate International                         Universities24 May 2012  ...
Watch out for the new “corporate universities”• Global Council of Corporate Universities – 4,000 members – 4m students• Ha...
Victims of new, more aggressive competitors24 May 2012                            49
The changing global higher education:disruptive online technologies• CAL is at least 30 years old• Most universities have ...
Free lectures: “Financial Markets” by RobertShiller of Yale University24 May 2012                             51
Khan Academy24 May 2012    52
The changing global higher education:disruptive online technologies (cont’d)• League tables, the growth of higher educatio...
Victims of disruptive technologies                                     Not a victim24 May 2012                            ...
The future of public universities? Competition                         Competition from new       Demographics         fro...
Jamil Salmi’s future university• It will be compulsory to go to university• Students will be recruited through Facebook• F...
The end of the UK public university?• “Thirty years from now the big  university campuses will be relics…  I consider the ...
A guide to university survival• Be clear what the university is for: what is your mission?• Focus energy and resources on ...
Conclusions• “Professors reminisce about an age when public money was  plentiful, governments left them alone and academic...
24 May 2012   60
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The changing landscape of global higher education: why should we care about the “Great Brain Race”?

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Profound changes are taking place in global higher education. Leading universities in the developed world are being buffeted by tightening constraints on public funding and a slump in endowment income. In the developing world ─ for many years the source of mobile international students seeking university places in the advanced English-speaking countries ─ a major expansion in domestic higher education is underway. Everywhere, many governments have aggressive plans to expand higher education and attract foreign students. International league tables and the relentless spread of English as a medium of instruction are making the sector ever more competitive. Private sector universities are spreading across the world, as governments and students seek cheaper or more innovative alternatives to traditional public universities. This lecture explores the changing landscape of international higher education and asks: why should we care about the ‘great brain race’?

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The changing landscape of global higher education: why should we care about the “Great Brain Race”?

  1. 1. The changing landscape of globalhigher education: why should we care about the “Great Brain Race”? Nigel Healey, 2 May 2012
  2. 2. Prologue24 May 2012 2
  3. 3. Overview• The institution of universities• The growth of higher education: public benefits vs private gains• The globalisation of higher education: the “Great Brain Race”• Emerging trends in global higher education• The future of UK universities• Conclusions24 May 2012 3
  4. 4. The institution of universities24 May 2012 4
  5. 5. Even new universities look old…The University of Chester is one of theoldest English higher educationestablishments of any kind.* 24 May 2012 * http://www.chester.ac.uk/about/the-university/history 5
  6. 6. The expansion of UK higher education24 May 2012 Source: Robertson (2010) 6
  7. 7. A global phenomenon: percentage ofpopulation with tertiary education by age24 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 7
  8. 8. The drivers of higher education expansion• Public policy – social benefits of higher education – role of higher education in driving growth in a knowledge economy• The private returns on a higher education in a knowledge economy24 May 2012 8
  9. 9. Public policy I: spillover benefits of highereducation • Wide range of social benefits from graduates for productivity, health status, crime, civic engagement, social cohesion • OECD estimates of tertiary education vs upper secondary education for: Electoral participation 11.7% Volunteering 6.90% Life satisfaction 11.20%24 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 9
  10. 10. Public policy II: higher education and the knowledge economy• “the knowledge economy is one in which the generation and exploitation of knowledge has come to play the predominant part in the creation of wealth” (DTI Competitiveness White Paper 1998)• “economic success is increasingly based on upon the effective utilisation of intangible assets such as knowledge, skills and innovative potential as the key resource for competitive advantage” (ESRC, 2005)• “Thinking for a living”: the knowledge worker is at the heart of the knowledge economy• Knowledge economy magnifies the spillovers of having an educated workforce: positive feedback loops 24 May 2012 10
  11. 11. Higher education and economic developmentin action Per capita GDP US$ 2005 prices24 May 2012 Source: Penn World Tables 6.3 11
  12. 12. Percentage of the population with tertiary education by age group revisited BrazilKorea 24 May 2012 12 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011
  13. 13. Korea’s top brands WUR QS Top 400 Universitiesand universities 42 Seoul National University 90 KAIST 98 Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) 129 Yonsei University 190 Korea University 245 Kyung Hee University 259 Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU) 314 Hanyang University 344 Ewha Womans University 392 Sogang University24 May 2012 Source: QS World University Rankings 2011/12 13
  14. 14. Brazil’s top brands WUR QS Top 400 Universitiesand universities 169 Universidade de São Paulo 235 Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) 381 Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro24 May 2012 Source: QS World University Rankings 2011/12 14
  15. 15. UNESCO’s world view• “At no time in human history was the welfare of nations so closely linked to the quality and outreach of their higher education systems and institutions.” (World Conference on Higher Education Partners, June 2003• Public policy prescription: subsidise higher education to increase overall take-up and increase access for disadvantaged groups• Public subsidies being reined back in many countries, but market continues to grow because private benefits are so high24 May 2012 15
  16. 16. The private gains from education•Employment•Lifetime earnings•Health status•Happiness24 May 2012 16
  17. 17. Percentage of 24-65 year olds inemployment by level of education, 200924 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 17
  18. 18. Private rate of return on higher education,200924 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 18
  19. 19. 24 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 19
  20. 20. Q: Where can I work without a degree?24 May 2012 20
  21. 21. A: McDonalds24 May 2012 21
  22. 22. It all adds up to a growing market 300 250 200 Millions 150 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202524 May 2012 Source: IDP 22
  23. 23. The globalisation of higher education• As higher education has expanded, it has also globalised• Increasing numbers of students study outside their home country or with foreign providers• Universities compete globally for students (and faculty): the “Great Brain Race”• Many of the drivers are the same as for global business24 May 2012 23
  24. 24. Number of students studying outside theirown country24 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 24
  25. 25. National market shares (2009)24 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 25
  26. 26. International enrolments as a percentage oftotal (2009)24 May 2012 Source: OECD Education at a glance 2011 26
  27. 27. Stocktake• Higher education has expanded everywhere since 1960 and will continue to grow rapidly• The expansion has been driven by public policy and the high private returns to higher education• Higher education has also globalised, with the UK one of the market leaders in “export education”• Should we be optimistic? How will we fare in the next leg of the “Great Brain Race”• Five key developments in the global market: Consumers Demographics Technology Asia Private competitors24 May 2012 27
  28. 28. 1. Consumers• University and b-school league tables originated in the US24 May 2012 28
  29. 29. Rankings spread to the UK and then globally•UK league tables•Global league tables•20,639 universities world-wide24 May 2012 29
  30. 30. versus THE World University Rankings 2011/12 QS World University Rankings 2011/12 1. California Institute of Technology University of Cambridge 2. Harvard University Harvard University 3. Stanford University Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 4. University of Oxford Yale University 5. Princeton University University of Oxford 6. University of Cambridge Imperial College London 7. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) UCL (University College London) 8. Imperial College London University of Chicago 9. University of Chicago University of Pennsylvania 10. University of California Berkeley Columbia University24 May 2012 30
  31. 31. Webometrics world university ranking University of 20369 Medical Sciences & Technology24 May 2012 31
  32. 32. University of Nottingham24 May 2012 32
  33. 33. Victims of league tablesProf Datuk Dr. Hashim Yaacob should resign as University of Malaya ViceChancellor not only for the shocking 80-place plunge of the nation’spremier university from 89th to 169th position in the QS-THES WorldUniversity Ranking for Top 200 Universities 2005, but for his disgustingcomplacency when he could say that he was “not worried”* 24 May 2012 * Education in Malaysia, 30 October , 2005 33
  34. 34. 2. Asia• Asia is the fastest growing, most populous continent• All Asian countries are making major investments in both public and private universities• These developments are having multiple impacts on universities in the UK24 May 2012 34
  35. 35. Asian government policy on export education• China: 500,000 international students by 2020, (250,000 in 2012) and above numbers sent abroad• Singapore (Global Schoolhouse): 150,000 international students by 2015 (80,000 in 2012)• Malaysia: 150,000 international students by 2015 (70,000 in 2012)• South Korea: 100,000 international students by 2012• Taiwan: 95,000 international students by 201424 May 2012 35
  36. 36. The changing global division of labour 1980s 1990s24 May 2012 36
  37. 37. Student World Fair• Asian universities are not only retaining more of their own students and competing for international students in third markets• As the tuition fees for domestic students in the UK rises, they are also competing for UK students• Student World Fair: Hong Kong Poly U (QS WUR #177)• Hong Kong University (QS WUR #22)24 May 2012 37
  38. 38. And Asian universities increasingly competing for the top faculty… Estab. 2000Professor Arnoud DeMeyer, President Professor Howard Thomas Dean, Lee Kong Chian School of Business 24 May 2012 38
  39. 39. Victims of Asian competition24 May 2012 39
  40. 40. 3. Demographics in 2000 in 2050 UNITED KINGDOM MEN WOMEN 85+ 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 0-4,10 ,8 ,6 ,4 ,2 ,0 ,0 ,2 ,4 ,6 ,8 ,1024 May 2012 40 Source: OECD
  41. 41. Could be worse… in 2000 in 2050 ITALY MEN WOMEN 85+ 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5-9 0-4,10 ,8 ,6 ,4 ,2 ,0 ,0 ,2 ,4 ,6 ,8 ,1024 May 2012 41 Source: OECD
  42. 42. India’s population pyramid in 200024 May 2012 42 Source: US Census Bureau
  43. 43. …and India in 205024 May 2012 43 Source: US Census Bureau
  44. 44. Victims of demographics24 May 2012 44
  45. 45. 4. Private competitors• Private (not-for-profit) higher education is a major part of higher education worldwide• The new wave is for-profit private providers which are seeking to expand market share• Teaching-focused, very cost competitive, market-focused24 May 2012 45
  46. 46. Leading private universities• United States: Harvard University, Columbia University, Stanford University, Yale University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Rice University• Japan: Waseda University, Keio University• Korea: Yonsei University, Hanyang University, Korea University , Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Sungkungkwan University (SKKU)• China: University of Nottingham Ningbo, China (UNNC), Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University24 May 2012 46
  47. 47. …and the new kids on the block Laureate International Universities24 May 2012 47
  48. 48. Watch out for the new “corporate universities”• Global Council of Corporate Universities – 4,000 members – 4m students• Hamburger University, estab. 1961• Huawei University, Beijing• Infosys Global Education Center, Delhi 24 May 2012 48
  49. 49. Victims of new, more aggressive competitors24 May 2012 49
  50. 50. The changing global higher education:disruptive online technologies• CAL is at least 30 years old• Most universities have not only failed to exploit digital technologies…• …they have actually harnessed them to become less cost- effective• Some of the for-profit providers (and innovative public universities like the OU) are succeeding with on-line provision• But real growth is in the 2.0 world24 May 2012 50
  51. 51. Free lectures: “Financial Markets” by RobertShiller of Yale University24 May 2012 51
  52. 52. Khan Academy24 May 2012 52
  53. 53. The changing global higher education:disruptive online technologies (cont’d)• League tables, the growth of higher education in Asia and private providers all pose threats to MEDSC public universities• Disruptive technologies are more difficult to manage because they are harder to foresee• Could public universities go the way of Borders?24 May 2012 53
  54. 54. Victims of disruptive technologies Not a victim24 May 2012 54
  55. 55. The future of public universities? Competition Competition from new Demographics from new conventional innovative providers providers Traditional Fiscal public Social universities stress inclusion League Disruptive tables / Climate technologies consumer activism change24 May 2012 55
  56. 56. Jamil Salmi’s future university• It will be compulsory to go to university• Students will be recruited through Facebook• Financial aid will be auctioned on eBay• Bachelors degrees will only be valid for five years• There will be an 0800 number to Bangalore for online tutoring• Graduates unemployed after six months will get a tuition fee rebate• Public universities will get 10% of their income from governments• Vice Chancellors’ salaries will be linked to their university’s ranking• All tuition will be in English, everywhere• The most prestigious professional degree will be an MFA not an MBA24 May 2012 56
  57. 57. The end of the UK public university?• “Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics… I consider the American research university of the past 40 years to be a failure” Peter Drucker (1997), Forbes Magazine• “No parent who sends an ill- disciplined, rebellious child away to university and welcomes home a confident, personable and employable graduate doubts the value of university” Anonymous 24 May 2012 57
  58. 58. A guide to university survival• Be clear what the university is for: what is your mission?• Focus energy and resources on pursuing that mission and shake off historical prejudices and convention• Don’t invest in doing for students what they can access more cheaply or freely externally• Do invest in doing what students can’t get through a broadband connection• Accept that the half-life of technical knowledge is shortening and that, in knowledge economy, the most valued capability is creativity24 May 2012 58
  59. 59. Conclusions• “Professors reminisce about an age when public money was plentiful, governments left them alone and academics were part of the ruling class…..Students remember when the government picked up the tab for tuition and living costs” The Economist• “There are three kinds of companies: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what’s happened” Anonymous• “There are two kinds of companies: those who change and those who disappear” Philip Kotler24 May 2012 59
  60. 60. 24 May 2012 60

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