Virtual Worlds:
2010 and beyond
Key industry trends and market developments
About KZero
Consulting, Analytics, Insight
KZero services (we don’t just do charts)
  For Start-ups: Business planning, market sizing, financial modeling, strategic
...
Clients
Media References
Market Growth
Buckle-Up. It’s Going North
Key Growth Drivers
  Perceived Value: Parents allowing their children to spend more time in
  VWs
  Greater Funding: Uplif...
Growth: Number of VWs
900
750
600
450
300
150
 0
  2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012
Virtual World Revenues (USD)
10bn

8bn

6bn

4bn

2bn

0bn
   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
KT&T
Kids, Tweens and Teens
KT&T: Growth areas
  Media brands: TV shows, films, youth IP all creating VWs to create greater
  engagement
  Music: Majo...
Q-on-Q Growth: total registered accounts                       400m




                                                  ...
Q-on-Q Growth: net increase in reg. accs.               90m




                                                        67...
Q-on-Q Growth: % increase in reg. accs.                            50%

                   Q1 09     Q2 09         Q3 09

...
Something for the ‘Grown-Ups’
     Don’t forget about the Adults
Adults: Growth Drivers

  Gambling: SMOGs and MMOGs
  Dating: Great for virtual goods and gifting
  Creative platforms: Mi...
ARPPUs
US$6.00

US$5.00

US$4.00

US$3.00

US$2.00

US$1.00

  US$0
                 12-13           14-15            16-1...
Screenshot from PKR
Screenshot from Mycosm
Screenshot from Vastpark
Screenshot from Omnidate
SocNetthe neighbourhood
Moving into
            Extension
SocNet extension

  SocNets have an inverse issue to VWs
  SocNets have user bases without greater interaction
  VWs have ...
Sports
The competition has arrived
Screenshot from Football Superstars
Education
Immersive Learning
Education: Growth areas

  Remote Learning: Regardless of geographical location
  Immersive Learning: For sweet-spot subje...
Photo-Realistic Avatars
   To lower the barrier to entry
Photo-Realistic Avatars: Growth areas
  Key to Mass Adoption: Creates meaning and relevance to VW
  interaction for early ...
Reputation Management
      What’s your score?
Reputation Management

 Necessary for trade-based and B2B platforms
 A reputation or trustworthiness‘score’
 Similar to an...
Accounts per unique resident (Second Life)
1.80
                                                            Stabilization
...
Mirror Worlds
  Virtually Real
Mirror Worlds: Growth areas

  Tactical Uses: Events, promotions
  Immersive Learning: For education
  ARGs: Mirror worlds...
Screenshot from Near
Screenshot from Twinity
Mirror Worlds: Microsoft Photosynth




Screenshot from Twinity
Source: http://michaelaltendorf.wordpress.com
Cross-World
Ideas without Frontiers?
Growth areas: Cross-World

  We have to be able to move‘things’from one world to another
  Or have a‘place’to aggregate or...
More Brands
    KT&T
Growth areas: Brands


  The first‘brand rush’is over (Second Life 2007)
  We expect a lot more brands to move in-world
  ...
Virtual Goods Integration
    Plenty of new business models
Growth areas: Virtual Goods Integration

  Virtual Goods are a booming industry
  Lots of emerging business models in supp...
Virtual Goods Revenues (USD)
15bn

12bn

 9bn

 6bn

 3bn

 0bn
    2007                 2008                 2009        ...
KZero campaign for L’Oreal Paris
Summary
Ansoff Matrix
Summary of 2010+
           Market Development
 New
            Virtual Goods Integration       Diversification
Markets   ...
Request the full report from
        www.kzero.co.uk
For further information
      nic@kzero.co.uk
Other KZero reports
Virtual Worlds 2011+
Virtual Worlds 2011+
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Virtual Worlds 2011+

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A summary presentation of the KZero Worldswide report: Virtual Worlds 2011+

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  • omg im tryin to find good virtual worldsand cant f9ind any. help!!!!!!
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  • It true, now I hope develop www.vaosieuthi.com the base in it.
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  • Surprised to see a 100% growth forecast between 2009 and 2010 in both revenue and number of VWs. Would have enjoyed seeing your presentation. I could easily swallow that level of growth in users/user hours, though.
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Virtual Worlds 2011+

  1. 1. Virtual Worlds: 2010 and beyond Key industry trends and market developments
  2. 2. About KZero Consulting, Analytics, Insight
  3. 3. KZero services (we don’t just do charts) For Start-ups: Business planning, market sizing, financial modeling, strategic guidance For Virtual World/Goods companies: Marketing strategy, product development, user analysis For Brands: Media planning, campaign creation, virtual brand strategy For VC’s/Investors: Deal-flow, investment analysis, market sizing
  4. 4. Clients
  5. 5. Media References
  6. 6. Market Growth Buckle-Up. It’s Going North
  7. 7. Key Growth Drivers Perceived Value: Parents allowing their children to spend more time in VWs Greater Funding: Uplift in VC activity moving into 2010 Brand Awareness: More VWs having a real-world presence Payment Mechanics: Easier, faster ways to purchase virtual currencies/services/goods
  8. 8. Growth: Number of VWs 900 750 600 450 300 150 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  9. 9. Virtual World Revenues (USD) 10bn 8bn 6bn 4bn 2bn 0bn 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  10. 10. KT&T Kids, Tweens and Teens
  11. 11. KT&T: Growth areas Media brands: TV shows, films, youth IP all creating VWs to create greater engagement Music: Major growth area for virtual goods and event simulcasting Virtual Celebrities: Starting with musicians More genres: Lots of different types of KT&T worlds Mobile payments: The avg. age of a new mobile phone user in the UK is 8 !!
  12. 12. Q-on-Q Growth: total registered accounts 400m 300m Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 200m 100m 5-10 10-15 0m 15-25 Age Group 25+
  13. 13. Q-on-Q Growth: net increase in reg. accs. 90m 67.5m Q2 09 Q3 09 45m 22.5m 5-10 10-15 0m 15-25 Age Group 25+
  14. 14. Q-on-Q Growth: % increase in reg. accs. 50% Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 40% 30% 20% 10% 5-10 10-15 0% 15-25 25+ Age Group Total Market
  15. 15. Something for the ‘Grown-Ups’ Don’t forget about the Adults
  16. 16. Adults: Growth Drivers Gambling: SMOGs and MMOGs Dating: Great for virtual goods and gifting Creative platforms: Micro-worlds. Vastpark, Mycosm New Genres: Sci-Fi
  17. 17. ARPPUs US$6.00 US$5.00 US$4.00 US$3.00 US$2.00 US$1.00 US$0 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Source: Andrew Chen, http://andrewchenblog.com/
  18. 18. Screenshot from PKR
  19. 19. Screenshot from Mycosm
  20. 20. Screenshot from Vastpark
  21. 21. Screenshot from Omnidate
  22. 22. SocNetthe neighbourhood Moving into Extension
  23. 23. SocNet extension SocNets have an inverse issue to VWs SocNets have user bases without greater interaction VWs have the interaction without the user bases (for new worlds) We expect SocNets to aggressively move into the VW and VG space
  24. 24. Sports The competition has arrived
  25. 25. Screenshot from Football Superstars
  26. 26. Education Immersive Learning
  27. 27. Education: Growth areas Remote Learning: Regardless of geographical location Immersive Learning: For sweet-spot subjects like History and Geography New Student Outreach: Already being used - we expect more P2P Learning: Students helping other students
  28. 28. Photo-Realistic Avatars To lower the barrier to entry
  29. 29. Photo-Realistic Avatars: Growth areas Key to Mass Adoption: Creates meaning and relevance to VW interaction for early majority market Consumer: Dating, gaming and older VW platforms B2B/Enterprise: Critical for convincing employees/stakeholders to adopt VWs Bigger Picture: Could become the key‘digital self’management platform
  30. 30. Reputation Management What’s your score?
  31. 31. Reputation Management Necessary for trade-based and B2B platforms A reputation or trustworthiness‘score’ Similar to an Ebay rating - P2P Immersionalists vs Augmentalists
  32. 32. Accounts per unique resident (Second Life) 1.80 Stabilization 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 Innovators Early Adopters 1.30 1.20 Jan06 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-07 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
  33. 33. Mirror Worlds Virtually Real
  34. 34. Mirror Worlds: Growth areas Tactical Uses: Events, promotions Immersive Learning: For education ARGs: Mirror worlds support Alternate Reality Gaming But,facing competition from rapid development applications (on the fly)
  35. 35. Screenshot from Near
  36. 36. Screenshot from Twinity
  37. 37. Mirror Worlds: Microsoft Photosynth Screenshot from Twinity Source: http://michaelaltendorf.wordpress.com
  38. 38. Cross-World Ideas without Frontiers?
  39. 39. Growth areas: Cross-World We have to be able to move‘things’from one world to another Or have a‘place’to aggregate or move from Cross-world applications could be buddy-lists, communicators, virtual goods or even currencies
  40. 40. More Brands KT&T
  41. 41. Growth areas: Brands The first‘brand rush’is over (Second Life 2007) We expect a lot more brands to move in-world Either tactically or into their own worlds
  42. 42. Virtual Goods Integration Plenty of new business models
  43. 43. Growth areas: Virtual Goods Integration Virtual Goods are a booming industry Lots of emerging business models in support - such as Viximo Increased third-party integration of virtual goods into SocNets and virtual worlds
  44. 44. Virtual Goods Revenues (USD) 15bn 12bn 9bn 6bn 3bn 0bn 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: KZero. Includes VGs from VWs, socnets and cross-world
  45. 45. KZero campaign for L’Oreal Paris
  46. 46. Summary Ansoff Matrix
  47. 47. Summary of 2010+ Market Development New Virtual Goods Integration Diversification Markets B2B / Enterprise Currency Management Education Reputation Management SocNet Extension Market Penetration Product Development Existing Second Life Metabrands, Micro-Worlds Markets More Brands, Mirror Worlds Theme Parks, Cross-World Sports, Sci-Fi Photo-Realistic Avatars KT&T Dating, Gambling Existing Products New Products
  48. 48. Request the full report from www.kzero.co.uk
  49. 49. For further information nic@kzero.co.uk
  50. 50. Other KZero reports

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