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Global A2P SMS Messaging Forecasts by Country, 2017-2022

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The Global A2P SMS Messaging Forecast Data by Country 2017-2022 Databook, is the largest piece of research undertaken on the global A2P SMS market to date. It provides detailed data and analysis on the A2P opportunity in 200 key global markets (view the full list of markets here), with 5 year forecasts for all 200 markets covering white and grey-route traffic, and revenues, and split by operator for each market. it also includes 2 scenarios modelling the impact of RCS on A2P revenues. The full report contains 3.7 million data points, and is essential reading for any business looking to future proof its A2P strategy.

Published in: Mobile

Global A2P SMS Messaging Forecasts by Country, 2017-2022

  1. 1. Global A2P SMS messaging forecasts by country, 2017-2022 Databook + report published February 2018 www.mobilesquared.co.uk
  2. 2. GLOBALA2P SMSMESSAGING FORECASTSBY COUNTRY 2017-2022 The Global A2P SMSMessaging Forecasts by Country 2017-2022, isthe largest piece of research undertaken on the global A2P SMS market to date. It providesdetailed data and analysison the A2P SMSopportunity in 200 key global markets, with 5 year forecastsfor all 200 markets. The full online version of the report containsover 3.7 million data points, and is essential reading for any businesslooking to future proof itsA2P SMSstrategy. The Databook isbased on interviews/discussions/ research over an on-going 15 month period involving: • 40 mobile operators/ groups • 40 service providers, cloud service providers, aggregators, hubs • 750 enterprises • 7,000 consumers.
  3. 3. @mobilesquared Global A2P SMS traffic A total of 1.67 trillion A2P SMS were sent in 2017, and that figure is forecast to increase to 2.8 trillion by 2022. That represents a CAGR of 10.8% - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 West Europe Oceania North America Middle East Latin America East Europe Caribbean Asia Africa
  4. 4. @mobilesquared White-route traffic surpasses grey-route White-route traffic accounted for 52.3% of total A2P SMS messaging traffic in 2017, but is projected to increase to 85% of total traffic by 2022. In total, white route traffic will grow from 875.11 billion to 2.38 trillion over the period. White-route messaging surpassed grey-route messaging in 2017. Total grey-route traffic will drop during forecast period. - 500,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 1,500,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 2,500,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
  5. 5. @mobilesquared Global A2P SMS revenues ($) The global A2P SMS messaging market was worth US$11.86 billion in 2017 and will increase to US$26.61 billion in 2022. Over the 2017-22 forecast period, the market will grow at a CAGR of 17.5%. - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 West Europe Oceania North America Middle East Latin America East Europe Caribbean Asia Africa
  6. 6. @mobilesquared Global A2P SMS revenues ($) White-route traffic generated revenues of US$10.44 billion in 2017, is projected to be worth US$25.86 billion in 2022. White-route traffic accounted for 88% of total revenues in 2017, even though it represented just over half of all A2P SMS traffic. By 2022, white-route traffic will account for 97% of total A2P SMS messaging revenues. Grey-route traffic is projected to experience recurrent declines year-on-year during the forecast period representing a CAGR of (minus) -11.9%. - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
  7. 7. @mobilesquared Mobile operator vs aggregator revenues Mobile operator A2P SMS traffic generated revenues of US$8.95 billion in 2017 – approximately 75.4% of total revenues; aggregators received approximately US$2.92 billion. Over the forecast period, mobile operators will see their proportion of overall revenues grow to 83.7% by 2022. At the end of the forecast period, mobile operators will see total revenues of US$22.27 billion against US$4.35 billion for aggregators. 0 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Mobile operators Aggregators
  8. 8. @mobilesquared Average A2P SMS price change -3.50% -3.00% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin America Middle East North America Oceania West Europe 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 White route costs per message will increase between 2017- 2019, but will decline from 2020. The global average cost-per- message increase in 2018 will be 0.8%. The initial increase can be attributed to a rise in the termination fee, and uncertainty regarding the impact of RCS.
  9. 9. @mobilesquared Total potential revenues ($) - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 35,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 White Grey converted to white Mobilesquared estimates that total potential (white-route traffic only) A2P SMS messaging revenues would generate US$19.56 billion in 2017 and US$30.54 billion in 2022. The increase in white-route traffic is projected to increase the pressure on aggregators, and lead to further consolidation of aggregators in the marketplace in the near term. 55% 70% 77% 81% 82% 85% White traffic as % of total traffic
  10. 10. @mobilesquared Lost revenues ($) Over the forecast period, the cumulative total revenue leakage will be US$30.80 billion. In 2017, revenue leakage accounted for $7.7 billion from the A2P SMS market. The average mobile operator lost $11.9 million per annum in A2P SMS revenues in 2017. By 2022, the average mobile operator will lose $6.04 million per annum in A2P SMS revenues. - 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
  11. 11. @mobilesquared SMS firewall projections Mobilesquared forecasts the number of mobile operators investing in a next-generation SMS firewall will increase from 48% of mobile operators in 2017 to 82% by 2022. By the end of 2017, 310 mobile operators had invested in a next-gen SMS firewall. Revenue leakage and fraud prevention has become the key driver for mobile operators deploying SMS firewalls. There was an acceleration of mobile operators deploying SMS firewalls in 2017, and this will continue until 2020. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total cumulative SMS firewall deployments
  12. 12. @mobilesquared SS7 firewall projections Mobilesquared forecasts that just 6% of mobile operators had invested in an SS7 firewall as of end 2017. Mobilesquared expects significant growth in SS7 firewalls in 2018, with an increase of 127.8%, taking the total market penetration to 13%. By the end of 2022, 54% of mobile operators will have invested in an SS7 firewall. Mobilesquared estimates that the total SS7 firewall opportunity will be worth US$510.5 million. The rapid adoption of RCS could impact SS7 firewall deployments. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SS7 firewall deployments per annum
  13. 13. @mobilesquared - 500,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 1,500,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 2,500,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 All SMS Exclude RCS on Android Exclude RCS on Smartphones Mobilesquared forecasts A2P RCS could reduce total global A2P SMS traffic by 238 billion messages by 2022. Impact on A2P SMS could be tripled if 2FA, alerts and updates follow the migration to RCS of promotions & marketing traffic. A2P RCS impact on A2P SMS traffic
  14. 14. @mobilesquared A2P RCS impact on A2P SMS revenues ($) Mobilesquared forecasts between 8.4% to 10.8% of total A2P SMS white route revenues could be lost to A2P RCS by the end of 2022. Impact on A2P SMS could be tripled if 2FA, alerts and updates follow the migration to RCS of promotions & marketing traffic. - 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 All SMS Exclude RCS on Android Exclude RCS on Smartphones
  15. 15. 200 COUNTRIESCOVERED North America Canada, Greenland, United States. Latin America Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela. Caribbean Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts& Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago. West Europe Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. East Europe Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine. Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea (North), Korea (South), Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, China, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam. Middle East Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen. Africa Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Democratic Republic), Congo (Republic), Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi. Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome & Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Oceania Australia, Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu.
  16. 16. AVAILABLEFORMATS: ONLINEDATA DASHBOARD WWW.MOBILESQUARED.CO.UK The online visualisation data dashboard containsthe full forecastsfor all markets (3.7 million data points), plusdata modeling for 2 potential scenarios outlining the impact of RCSon A2P SMS revenuesand traffic. The dashboard allowsyou to view the data interactively, giving you the ability to slice and dice the numbers, and select multiple different criteria to create and download unlimited data scenarios. Example data only
  17. 17. AVAILABLEFORMATS: EXCELDATA FILE WWW.MOBILESQUARED.CO.UK The redacted Excel file containscore A2P revenue and traffic data for all 200 marketsand includes403,740 data points. Not actual data Not actual data
  18. 18. ONLINEDATABOOK CONTENTSOUTLINE SECTION 1 A2P market forecasts: • Annual A2P messaging traffic for 200 marketssplit by region / country / mobile operator / route / domestic / international / sector / message type • Average A2P messagesper subscription split by region / country / route • Annual A2P messaging revenuessplit by region / country / mobile operator / total aggregators/ route • Average A2P revenue per sub split by region / country / route • Potential annual A2P messaging revenuessplit by region / country / mobile operator / total aggregators/ route • Lost annual A2P messaging revenuessplit by region / country / mobile operator / total aggregators/ route
  19. 19. To purchase visit www.mobilesquared.co.uk/global-a2p-sms-messaging-forecast-data/ For more information contact databooks@mobilesquared.co.uk / jo@mobilesquared.co.uk +44 (0) 1344 747 113 / + 44 (0) 7976 057 052

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