Global A2P SMS messaging forecasts by country, 2017-2022
Databook + report published February 2018
www.mobilesquared.co.uk

GLOBALA2P SMSMESSAGING FORECASTSBY COUNTRY
2017-2022
The Global A2P SMSMessaging Forecasts
by Country 2017-2022, isthe largest piece of
research undertaken on the global A2P SMS
market to date.
It providesdetailed data and analysison
the A2P SMSopportunity in 200 key global
markets, with 5 year forecastsfor all 200
markets. The full online version of the report
containsover 3.7 million data points, and is
essential reading for any businesslooking to
future proof itsA2P SMSstrategy.
The Databook isbased on interviews/discussions/
research over an on-going 15 month period involving:
• 40 mobile operators/ groups
• 40 service providers, cloud service
providers, aggregators, hubs
• 750 enterprises
• 7,000 consumers.

@mobilesquared
Global A2P SMS traffic
A total of 1.67 trillion A2P SMS
were sent in 2017, and that
figure is forecast to increase to
2.8 trillion by 2022.
That represents a CAGR of 10.8%
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
West Europe
Oceania
North America
Middle East
Latin America
East Europe
Caribbean
Asia
Africa

@mobilesquared
White-route traffic surpasses grey-route
White-route traffic accounted for
52.3% of total A2P SMS messaging
traffic in 2017, but is projected to
increase to 85% of total traffic by
2022.
In total, white route traffic will grow
from 875.11 billion to 2.38 trillion
over the period.
White-route messaging surpassed
grey-route messaging in 2017.
Total grey-route traffic will drop
during forecast period.
-
500,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
2,000,000,000,000
2,500,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

@mobilesquared
Global A2P SMS revenues ($)
The global A2P SMS messaging
market was worth US$11.86
billion in 2017 and will increase
to US$26.61 billion in 2022.
Over the 2017-22 forecast
period, the market will grow at a
CAGR of 17.5%.
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
West Europe
Oceania
North America
Middle East
Latin America
East Europe
Caribbean
Asia
Africa

@mobilesquared
Global A2P SMS revenues ($)
White-route traffic generated revenues of
US$10.44 billion in 2017, is projected to be
worth US$25.86 billion in 2022.
White-route traffic accounted for 88% of
total revenues in 2017, even though it
represented just over half of all A2P SMS
traffic.
By 2022, white-route traffic will account for
97% of total A2P SMS messaging revenues.
Grey-route traffic is projected to experience
recurrent declines year-on-year during the
forecast period representing a CAGR of
(minus) -11.9%.
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

@mobilesquared
Mobile operator vs aggregator revenues
Mobile operator A2P SMS traffic
generated revenues of US$8.95 billion
in 2017 – approximately 75.4% of total
revenues; aggregators received
approximately US$2.92 billion.
Over the forecast period, mobile
operators will see their proportion of
overall revenues grow to 83.7% by 2022.
At the end of the forecast period, mobile
operators will see total revenues of
US$22.27 billion against US$4.35 billion for
aggregators.
0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Mobile operators Aggregators

@mobilesquared
Average A2P SMS price change
-3.50%
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
Africa Asia Caribbean East Europe Latin
America
Middle East North
America
Oceania West
Europe
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
White route costs per message
will increase between 2017-
2019, but will decline from 2020.
The global average cost-per-
message increase in 2018 will be
0.8%.
The initial increase can be
attributed to a rise in the
termination fee, and uncertainty
regarding the impact of RCS.

@mobilesquared
Total potential revenues ($)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
White Grey converted to white
Mobilesquared estimates that total
potential (white-route traffic only)
A2P SMS messaging revenues would
generate US$19.56 billion in 2017
and US$30.54 billion in 2022.
The increase in white-route traffic is
projected to increase the pressure on
aggregators, and lead to further
consolidation of aggregators in the
marketplace in the near term.
55%
70%
77%
81%
82%
85%
White traffic as % of total traffic

@mobilesquared
Lost revenues ($)
Over the forecast period, the
cumulative total revenue leakage will
be US$30.80 billion.
In 2017, revenue leakage accounted for
$7.7 billion from the A2P SMS market.
The average mobile operator lost $11.9
million per annum in A2P SMS revenues in
2017.
By 2022, the average mobile operator will
lose $6.04 million per annum in A2P SMS
revenues.
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

@mobilesquared
SMS firewall projections
Mobilesquared forecasts the number of mobile
operators investing in a next-generation SMS
firewall will increase from 48% of mobile operators
in 2017 to 82% by 2022.
By the end of 2017, 310 mobile operators had
invested in a next-gen SMS firewall.
Revenue leakage and fraud prevention has become
the key driver for mobile operators deploying SMS
firewalls. There was an acceleration of mobile
operators deploying SMS firewalls in 2017, and this
will continue until 2020.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total cumulative SMS firewall deployments

@mobilesquared
SS7 firewall projections
Mobilesquared forecasts that just 6% of mobile
operators had invested in an SS7 firewall as of end
2017.
Mobilesquared expects significant growth in SS7
firewalls in 2018, with an increase of 127.8%, taking
the total market penetration to 13%. By the end of
2022, 54% of mobile operators will have invested in
an SS7 firewall.
Mobilesquared estimates that the total SS7 firewall
opportunity will be worth US$510.5 million.
The rapid adoption of RCS could impact SS7 firewall
deployments.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
SS7 firewall deployments per annum

@mobilesquared
-
500,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
2,000,000,000,000
2,500,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
All SMS Exclude RCS on Android Exclude RCS on Smartphones
Mobilesquared forecasts A2P RCS
could reduce total global A2P SMS
traffic by 238 billion messages by
2022.
Impact on A2P SMS could be
tripled if 2FA, alerts and updates
follow the migration to RCS of
promotions & marketing traffic.
A2P RCS impact on A2P SMS traffic

@mobilesquared
A2P RCS impact on A2P SMS revenues ($)
Mobilesquared forecasts between
8.4% to 10.8% of total A2P SMS
white route revenues could be lost
to A2P RCS by the end of 2022.
Impact on A2P SMS could be
tripled if 2FA, alerts and updates
follow the migration to RCS of
promotions & marketing traffic.
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
All SMS Exclude RCS on Android Exclude RCS on Smartphones

200 COUNTRIESCOVERED
North America
Canada, Greenland, United States.
Latin America
Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama,
Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.
Caribbean
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados,
Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba,
Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies,
Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts& Nevis, St.
Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago.
West Europe
Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark,
Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein,
Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, United Kingdom.
East Europe
Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro,
Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine.
Asia
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China,
Hong Kong, China, India, Indonesia,
Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea (North),
Korea (South), Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau,
China, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia,
Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua
New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore,
Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand,
Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Vietnam.
Middle East
Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait,
Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab
Emirates, Yemen.
Africa
Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso,
Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African
Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Democratic
Republic), Congo (Republic), Côte d’Ivoire,
Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar,
Malawi. Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco,
Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda,
Sao Tome & Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra
Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan,
Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda,
Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Oceania
Australia, Fiji, New Caledonia, New
Zealand, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
Tonga, Vanuatu.

AVAILABLEFORMATS:
ONLINEDATA DASHBOARD
WWW.MOBILESQUARED.CO.UK
The online visualisation data dashboard
containsthe full forecastsfor all markets
(3.7 million data points), plusdata
modeling for 2 potential scenarios
outlining the impact of RCSon A2P SMS
revenuesand traffic.
The dashboard allowsyou to view the data
interactively, giving you the ability to slice and dice
the numbers, and select multiple different criteria
to create and download unlimited data scenarios.
Example data only

AVAILABLEFORMATS:
EXCELDATA FILE
WWW.MOBILESQUARED.CO.UK
The redacted Excel file containscore
A2P revenue and traffic data for all
200 marketsand includes403,740
data points.
Not actual data
Not actual data

ONLINEDATABOOK CONTENTSOUTLINE
SECTION 1
A2P market forecasts:
• Annual A2P messaging traffic for 200 marketssplit by region / country
/ mobile operator / route / domestic / international / sector / message type
• Average A2P messagesper subscription split by region / country / route
• Annual A2P messaging revenuessplit by region / country / mobile operator
/ total aggregators/ route
• Average A2P revenue per sub split by region / country / route
• Potential annual A2P messaging revenuessplit by region / country / mobile
operator / total aggregators/ route
• Lost annual A2P messaging revenuessplit by region / country / mobile operator
/ total aggregators/ route

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www.mobilesquared.co.uk/global-a2p-sms-messaging-forecast-data/
For more information contact
databooks@mobilesquared.co.uk / jo@mobilesquared.co.uk
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