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The Market for Smart Wearables 
A consumer-based perspective 
Nick Hunn – WiFore Consulting 
nick@wifore.com
Why is the wearables market like the 
opening song of a Broadway musical?
Wear am I going ? I don’t know. 
When will I get there? I ain’t certain. 
What will we get? I ain’t equipped to say. 
But ...
Why is the industry so interested? 
• Black slabs (aka Smartphones) are hitting a plateau 
– They look the same 
– They do...
How do you measure the market? 
What consumers want to buy? What vendors want to sell? 
I’ve built up a view of the market...
Defining the Segments 
What will consumers buy?
Sports & Fitness 
• Fitness Trackers 
• Wristbands 
• Smart Activity Clothing 
But… not many people go to the gym – it’s l...
The “Curse” of the Reference Design 
The game has changed from design to packaging 
Chip manufacturers are designing pcbs ...
Sports & Fitness 
And prices of wristbands are plummeting… 
$140.00 
$120.00 
$100.00 
$80.00 
$60.00 
$40.00 
$20.00 
$0....
Sports & Fitness 
It becomes dominated by two sectors: 
Professional / Serious Amateurs or Cheap / Free 
$1,400 
$1,200 
$...
Hearables 
Things you can stick in your ear. 
There’s a new Bluetooth standard being developed which adds audio 
streaming...
Hearables 
It’s not just sound. 
The Dash earbud records: 
• Accelerometer data 
• Pulse Oximeter data 
• Heartrate 
• Blo...
Hearables 
It makes hearables a VERY interesting market. 
By 2020 over 128 million products could be shipping, with a tota...
Personal Medical
The Tricorder Effect 
Once products become available for ~ $250 which 
can reliably diagnose common diseases, most 
famili...
The “Oh my God, I’m going to die” market 
Targeting the “Live Slow, Die Old” demographic. 
“Brian Bilodeau, now Senior Dir...
Loved One Asset Tracking 
Where’s my baby, child, pet? 
Possibly the ultimate guilt sale. 
How would you feel if you didn’...
Loved One Asset Tracking 
$900 
$800 
$700 
$600 
$500 
$400 
$300 
$200 
$100 
$0 
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 
Mi...
Fashion 
Competing with the high street 
The average street market has more variety than the entire 
wearable tech market....
Fan Clothing 
Last year Foxtel launched the “Alert Shirt” to allow sports fan to feel the action, at a subscription of $1,...
Glass & Stuff 
• Augmented Reality 
• Smart Glasses 
• Smart Cameras 
• Gesture Recognition 
All face social battles to fi...
Who is the market? 
• West Coast 
• Large Wrist 
• Male 
• Geek 
If I ask a San Diego audience “Who’s wearing one?”, the r...
There’s a ticking 
time-bomb which is 
the Apple Watch
Smart Watches 
• Apple have done something clever – they’ve made 
the phone complement the watch rather than the 
other wa...
Smart Watches 
• Cheap watches will account for over half the volume 
• Apple will take less than half the remainder, but ...
The global market for smart wearables 
$35 
$30 
$25 
$20 
$15 
$10 
$5 
$0 
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 
Billions ...
But… 
The more interesting market is the subscription 
Service Models based on the data generated by 
Smart Wearables. 
Th...
Nick Hunn 
CTO 
mob: +44 7768 890 148 
email: nick@wifore.com 
web: www.wifore.com 
The Market for Smart Wearables: www.bi...
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The Market for Smart Wearable Technology. A consumer centric approach looking at smart watches, fitness bands, baby monitors, pet trackers, hearables, wireless headsets and smart clothing and predicting the market growth between 2015 and 2020.

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The market for smart wearables

  1. 1. The Market for Smart Wearables A consumer-based perspective Nick Hunn – WiFore Consulting nick@wifore.com
  2. 2. Why is the wearables market like the opening song of a Broadway musical?
  3. 3. Wear am I going ? I don’t know. When will I get there? I ain’t certain. What will we get? I ain’t equipped to say. But who gives a damn – I’m on my way! Which is why Wearable Technology is currently at the top of the Gartner hype curve.
  4. 4. Why is the industry so interested? • Black slabs (aka Smartphones) are hitting a plateau – They look the same – They do the same – They’re a pain to upgrade • Once they fail to inspire us, they’re no different to socks or light bulbs – We’ll only buy a new one when the old one breaks. As PC and laptop markets start to die and the pace of smartphone evolution slows, market leaders are looking to wearables as the saviour of their industries.
  5. 5. How do you measure the market? What consumers want to buy? What vendors want to sell? I’ve built up a view of the market based on what consumers might want to buy and how many of them might be prepared to spend their money on each type of wearable technology.
  6. 6. Defining the Segments What will consumers buy?
  7. 7. Sports & Fitness • Fitness Trackers • Wristbands • Smart Activity Clothing But… not many people go to the gym – it’s limited 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Millions
  8. 8. The “Curse” of the Reference Design The game has changed from design to packaging Chip manufacturers are designing pcbs and software preconfigured for basic functions such as smart watches and fitness bands. These allow multiple manufacturers to bring sub $15 products to market in a matter of months, forcing prices down for everyone else.
  9. 9. Sports & Fitness And prices of wristbands are plummeting… $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 Y 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Millions Wristbands Cheap Wristbands • Fitness Trackers • Wristbands • Smart Activity Clothing
  10. 10. Sports & Fitness It becomes dominated by two sectors: Professional / Serious Amateurs or Cheap / Free $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 Millions Fitness Tracker Wristband Activity Clothing $600 $400 $200 $0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  11. 11. Hearables Things you can stick in your ear. There’s a new Bluetooth standard being developed which adds audio streaming to Bluetooth Smart for really low power products. And it’s always easier selling a product for which content is already available.
  12. 12. Hearables It’s not just sound. The Dash earbud records: • Accelerometer data • Pulse Oximeter data • Heartrate • Blood Oxygen Saturation • Body and Ambient Temperature • Steps • Calories Burned • Cadence • Speed & Pace • G-Force • Distance • Angle • Gesture The ear is a better place than the wrist for most “health” measurements, as it doesn’t wave around.
  13. 13. Hearables It makes hearables a VERY interesting market. By 2020 over 128 million products could be shipping, with a total revenue of $17.3 billion. That still only an attach rate of just 2.1% $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions
  14. 14. Personal Medical
  15. 15. The Tricorder Effect Once products become available for ~ $250 which can reliably diagnose common diseases, most families will want one. Most medics in Europe and the US oppose them, as they threaten their income and status. They want to limit them to being prescription-only devices. As a result the market may take off in the Far East, with on-line services in India. It’s difficult to predict volume because regulation may distort demand.
  16. 16. The “Oh my God, I’m going to die” market Targeting the “Live Slow, Die Old” demographic. “Brian Bilodeau, now Senior Director of Personal Devices at Microsoft, was shocked into action when his father-in-law passed away unexpectedly in his 60s. Bilodeau said, “ I have to get in better shape. I don’t want to die young.” That’s not an amazing, new business plan. It’s called life. Most people get on with it.
  17. 17. Loved One Asset Tracking Where’s my baby, child, pet? Possibly the ultimate guilt sale. How would you feel if you didn’t have one and your pet / child / baby got lost / stolen / died?
  18. 18. Loved One Asset Tracking $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Millions Pets Kids Babies Who do you love most? It’s a market that may be driven by the tabloid press. A high profile kidnapping story could see it rocket.
  19. 19. Fashion Competing with the high street The average street market has more variety than the entire wearable tech market. That’s a major challenge for the industry.
  20. 20. Fan Clothing Last year Foxtel launched the “Alert Shirt” to allow sports fan to feel the action, at a subscription of $1,000 per season. If you could persuade 100 million fans to subscribe for $100 / year, that’s an annual revenue of $10 billion.
  21. 21. Glass & Stuff • Augmented Reality • Smart Glasses • Smart Cameras • Gesture Recognition All face social battles to find acceptability. It’s difficult to determine whether consumers will want them. But Mark thinks they’ll sell 50 - 100m Rifts by 2020. That’s an annual market of around $10 billion in 2020.
  22. 22. Who is the market? • West Coast • Large Wrist • Male • Geek If I ask a San Diego audience “Who’s wearing one?”, the response is ~ 70%. In San Francisco it’s about 50% In Europe it’s around 10% Outside a wearables conference it’s below 0.2% Sony’s recent “highly successful” crowd-funding campaign for it’s FES ePaper Watch only sold 137 devices. Beware the hype.
  23. 23. There’s a ticking time-bomb which is the Apple Watch
  24. 24. Smart Watches • Apple have done something clever – they’ve made the phone complement the watch rather than the other way around. Plus it has Apple Pay. • Samsung, Asus, LG, Motorola, Sony et al may have trouble catching up. Other than for Apple, the curse of the reference design is at work. With a wide variety of $15 devices, how do you get a consumer to pay $300? Smartwatches do not compete with high end watches. Smartwatches only have a life of tens of months (not decades) and are accurate.
  25. 25. Smart Watches • Cheap watches will account for over half the volume • Apple will take less than half the remainder, but • They’ll take almost 70% of the revenue Unless consumers decide they don’t want smart watches. $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Billions Branded Apple Cheap
  26. 26. The global market for smart wearables $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Billions Smart Watches Augmented Reality Fashion Kids & Pets Medical Hearables Sports & Fitness For more details, download the report from www.bit.ly/smartwear
  27. 27. But… The more interesting market is the subscription Service Models based on the data generated by Smart Wearables. That takes us to the next generation of content provision, which is Sensation.
  28. 28. Nick Hunn CTO mob: +44 7768 890 148 email: nick@wifore.com web: www.wifore.com The Market for Smart Wearables: www.bit.ly/smartwear Creative Connectivity Blog: www.nickhunn.com LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/nickhunn
  • akhilgarg154

    Aug. 24, 2016
  • sbepstein

    Dec. 23, 2015
  • arshiagrat

    Apr. 10, 2015
  • JohnMoor

    Mar. 9, 2015
  • BartCollet

    Dec. 1, 2014

The Market for Smart Wearable Technology. A consumer centric approach looking at smart watches, fitness bands, baby monitors, pet trackers, hearables, wireless headsets and smart clothing and predicting the market growth between 2015 and 2020.

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