Technology Developments for high impact future technology


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Technology Developments for high impact future technology

  1. 1. High Impact Technology Update By Brian Wang Nov 15, 2008
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear, Wind, Solar </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Computers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantum Computers, Supercomputers, Optical </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nanotechnology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA Nano, Synthetic Bio, Mechanosynthesis, APM </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Claytronics, Programmable Matter, Brain Emulation </li></ul><ul><li>Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology </li></ul><ul><li>Biomarkers, Medicine </li></ul><ul><li>Life Extension, Enhancement </li></ul><ul><li>Robotics, Communication, Cameras, Sensors </li></ul><ul><li>Space </li></ul><ul><li>Putting it all Together </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tech Controversy, Plans and Predictions </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Energy Tech <ul><li>Nuclear Fission </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mass produced, Annular Fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nuclear Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Wind – Kitegen </li></ul><ul><li>Solar –Concentrated solar </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coolearth, SunRGI, MIT </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Blacklight Power </li></ul>
  4. 4. World Energy <ul><li>26 Trillion to be spent on </li></ul><ul><li>energy infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>26 billion tons of CO2 going </li></ul><ul><li>to 40 billion tons in 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Unless changes are made </li></ul><ul><li>More economic growth and more wealth needs more energy and resources </li></ul><ul><li>$60 billion for California alone to get to 33% renewables (solar, wind, geothermal etc…) </li></ul>
  5. 5. Mass Produced Deep Burn Nuclear Fission <ul><li>Hyperion Power Generation </li></ul><ul><li>China’s High Temperature Reactor </li></ul><ul><li>AP1000 Factories </li></ul><ul><li>Fuji Molten Salt Reactor </li></ul><ul><li>Russian Breeder Reactor </li></ul><ul><li>Power Uprating, 80 year life [small ball baseball] </li></ul><ul><li>New build mainly in China, Russia, India, Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>373 GW + 350 GW conventional + 150 GW 2025 + 60GW uprates </li></ul>
  6. 6. Nuclear Fusion <ul><li>Inertial Electrostatic Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>Focus Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>General Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>Colliding Beam Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>Laser Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>80% on IEC and Colliding Beam 2014-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Tough to meaningfully scale for impact before 2025 but could start impact on space access </li></ul>
  7. 7. Biofuels from Seaweed, Algae, Fungus, Weeds and Waste <ul><li>Regular Crops </li></ul><ul><li>Seaweed (Japan, Indonesia) </li></ul><ul><li>Algae </li></ul><ul><li>Weeds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Jatropha (India) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Camelina (Canada) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fungus </li></ul><ul><li>Waste (Coskata and others) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E10 blend wall </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biobutonal Bu16 (up to 22 billion gallons) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More E85 flex fuel and flex in general </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>36 billion gallon US target 2022, 140 billion gallons US, 600 billion gallons worldwide </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. More Efficient Engines and lighter vehicles <ul><li>Diesel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ecomotors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Free Piston Engine </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce weight by 60% and improve fuel efficiency 30% </li></ul><ul><li>Hybrids and Electrics </li></ul><ul><li>Ultracapacitors </li></ul>
  9. 9. Superconductors and Thermoelectrics <ul><li>Industrial engines coming from South Korea </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller and more efficient </li></ul><ul><li>Actual deployment for electric grid </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects for room temperature superconductors </li></ul><ul><li>Thermoelectrics utilize waste heat. Better AC, refrigerators, up car efficiency 10-30% gain in overall efficiency of entire energy infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Capturing waste heat for aluminum and industrial processes would be big </li></ul>
  10. 10. Faster Computers –Exaflops/Zettaflops <ul><li>Tensilica </li></ul><ul><li>GPGPUs </li></ul><ul><li>Onchip Photonic Communication </li></ul><ul><li>All Digital Radios </li></ul><ul><li>Trigate/EUV/CNT FET </li></ul><ul><li>3D stackable chips </li></ul><ul><li>New Memory </li></ul>
  11. 11. Quantum Computers <ul><li>Scaling up to thousands of qubits in 2009. 2007 was 16 qubits. </li></ul><ul><li>This qubit implemention not fully connected (may need to square the number of qubits) </li></ul><ul><li>What are the quantum algorithms? </li></ul><ul><li>How much better are the answers ? What are the answers without Ok approximations – Relates to AGI. We have better answers now that go unimplemented </li></ul><ul><li>Major impact would be faster molecular nanotech development from bigger and better quantum simulations </li></ul>
  12. 12. Transformation Optics <ul><li>Transformation optics is a field of optical and material engineering and science embracing nanophotonics, plasmonics, and optical metamaterials. The list of possible breakthroughs includes a cloak of invisibility; computers and consumer electronics that use light instead of electronic signals to process information [optical computers]; a &quot;planar hyperlens&quot; that could make optical microscopes 10 times more powerful and able to see objects as small as DNA; advanced sensors; and more efficient solar collectors. </li></ul>
  13. 13. DNA Sequencing <ul><li>$5000 for a genome available early 2009 (already announced) </li></ul><ul><li>$1000 or less 2009-2011 </li></ul><ul><li>$100 or less 2011-2014 </li></ul><ul><li>Over 99% of bacteria not identified (dirt, oceans, our bodies – does not grow in petri dish) </li></ul><ul><li>Faster and cheaper sequencing helps synthesis </li></ul><ul><li>Totally synthetic life: 582,000 BP </li></ul><ul><li>California Institute of Technology, led by biomolecular engineer Niles Pierce , has created a DNA-based fabricator. </li></ul>
  14. 14. DNA Nanotechnology <ul><li>Structural DNA (3D patterns) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DNA assembled one million 15nm gold nanoparticles </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DNA optical wires </li></ul><ul><li>IBM: DNA make CNT grid </li></ul><ul><li>Building other stuff with DNA </li></ul><ul><li>DNA Nanotech device projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sensors, antennas, surgery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Turning cells into DNA nanotech factories (trillions of copies) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DNA robotic arms </li></ul><ul><li>DNA Sewing machine </li></ul>
  15. 15. Atomically Precise Manufacturing and Mechanosynthesis <ul><li>Zyvex APM </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perfect quantum dots (hundreds to millions) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Micro Automation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Parallel micro-assembly </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Molecularly Precise Tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Patterned Atomic Layer Epitaxy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Single atom layer with precise removals as needed before next layer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Philip Mortiarty funded </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Verify Freitas and Merkle Mechanosynthesis </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Claytronics and Programmable Matter/Avogadro Computers <ul><li>Intel’s and CMU Claytronics </li></ul><ul><li>MIT Avogradro Computing </li></ul>
  17. 17. Brain Emulation <ul><li>Brain emulation roadmap </li></ul><ul><li>Rat brain simulation using 30 teraflops </li></ul><ul><li>We have 1.3 petaflops sustained </li></ul><ul><li>Human scale level 4 emulation needs about 36 petaflops </li></ul>
  18. 18. Materials – Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, Diamond <ul><li>Carbon Nanotubes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Meter long strands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-thousand ton factories ~2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Graphene </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher volume production </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Diamond </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kilocarats </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1.5 Billion tons of steel (2009) </li></ul><ul><li>2.5 billion tons of concrete </li></ul><ul><ul><li>carbon fiber 46,000 tons 2009  88,000 tons 2015 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New states of matter </li></ul>
  19. 19. Gene Therapy, Stem Cells, Transgenics, Synthetic Biology <ul><li>Gene Therapy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All muscle cells in a dog </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Could be used to transfer Aids/HIV immunity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transgenics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher Food production </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stem Cells </li></ul><ul><li>Synthetic biology </li></ul>
  20. 20. Biomarkers, cheap tests and real cures <ul><li>Canary Foundation goal: early detection tests for solid tumor cancers by 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Effective early cancer tests could save over $50 billion (out of $89 billion) per year in medical costs and 400,000 lives each year in the USA and 5 million lives around the world. 7 million cancer deaths/yr worldwide. </li></ul><ul><li>Proven with pap smear ($8) and cervical cancer (70% reduction) </li></ul><ul><li>Other cheap blood and other biomarker test devices (other diseases and medical threats) </li></ul>
  21. 21. Life Extension <ul><li>Resveratrol, sirtuin </li></ul><ul><li>Telomerase </li></ul><ul><li>SENS project </li></ul>
  22. 22. Human Enhancement <ul><li>Immune System Enhancement </li></ul><ul><li>DARPA Work </li></ul><ul><li>Curing Obesity </li></ul><ul><li>Regeneration </li></ul><ul><li>Tissue Engineering from scaffolds </li></ul><ul><li>Brain Computer Interfaces </li></ul>
  23. 23. Robotics, Prosthestics, Exoskeletons, UAVs, Robotic Cars <ul><li>Needed for safe flying cars and to correct safety flaws of automobiles and fix transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Blood Stream Robots – pill to Bacteria size from several research groups and nanoparticles and macroparticles </li></ul><ul><li>Heartland Robotics – Rodney Brooks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I want to effect a powerful evolution in the world's labor markets, and my current focus is to develop low-cost robots that will empower American workers </li></ul></ul>
  24. 24. High Speed Communication <ul><li>White space modems 100 Mbps </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless 1 Gbps + </li></ul><ul><li>Free space lasers </li></ul><ul><li>60Ghz 5 Gbps Taiwan chip <$1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Better encoding go to 20 Gbps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Terabit optical internet </li></ul>
  25. 25. Better Video, Still Cameras and Holograms <ul><li>Red Camera Company </li></ul>
  26. 26. Controversial Technology <ul><li>EmDrive </li></ul><ul><li>Blacklight Power </li></ul><ul><li>IEC Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>Focus Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>Dwave Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Molecular Nanotech </li></ul><ul><li>AGI </li></ul>
  27. 27. Space <ul><li>Solar Electric sail </li></ul><ul><li>Vasimr </li></ul><ul><li>SpaceX </li></ul><ul><li>Virgin Galactic </li></ul><ul><li>Lunar Concrete </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel Depots </li></ul><ul><li>Portable nuclear </li></ul><ul><li>Telescopes </li></ul>
  28. 28. Technology to Change the World is Hard <ul><li>What we think should be amazing may only effect a niche </li></ul><ul><li>Need to have something that has good economics and rapidly scalable deployment </li></ul><ul><li>Functionality for you personally </li></ul><ul><li>Scaling for world impact </li></ul><ul><li>Micro/Macro future </li></ul><ul><li>Complete solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Resist adoption because of world-view, self-image, image that others have, old way good enough etc… </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. You Get What You Pay For <ul><li>Vast waste is a problem (It is easy to piss away trillions and years on nothing) </li></ul><ul><li>Individuals buying movies, books, toys will get better or more of the same </li></ul><ul><li>Over one trillion spent on “space” but how much on actually flying stuff and how much on building infrastructure to make things cheaper or to have real space industry </li></ul><ul><li>Assume we have to better plans, work to get it, find a way to improve odds of good result and faster results </li></ul>
  30. 30. Choices and Better Systems <ul><li>Anti-growth, anti-technology and anti-business, over-regulation and corruption can still slow development </li></ul><ul><li>Even for greater than human intelligence – stupid and wrong are powerful opponents </li></ul><ul><li>Beat the variable cost including the cost and effort to change out the old stuff </li></ul>
  31. 31. Revamping Manufacturing and Construction <ul><li>Contour Crafting </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid Manufacturing and Prototyping </li></ul><ul><li>Reel to Reel Production </li></ul><ul><li>Business choices and processes and training, city zoning and policies, architects, construction industry </li></ul>
  32. 32. Better Strategies for Dealing with Problems <ul><li>Energy </li></ul><ul><li>CO2 and global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul><ul><li>Pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Tougher construction – nails, better concrete, domes, future materials </li></ul><ul><li>Robust Civilization – can’t let vulnerabilities and problems fester </li></ul><ul><li>Get tough and spread out to space </li></ul>
  33. 33. How Much ? <ul><li>1. Economic abundance 2. Radical life extension 3. Physical and Cognitive enhancement 4. Automation, Robots, exoskeletons 5. Super-materials 6. Open Access to space 7. Pollution elimination 8. Computer/Intelligence Advancement 9. Towards programmable matter </li></ul>
  34. 34. General Predictions <ul><li>2009-2015 Perfecting of the now and old, prototype breakthroughs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Billion super-iPhones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Walking around Internet browsing, voice-text blogging </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Terascale with gigabit per second networking </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power Harvesting from regenerative braking on human walking and thermoelectrics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2016-2025 New tech breaks out with big impact </li></ul>
  35. 35. Convergence <ul><li>Scavenge energy from the body </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient devices could always be on using 9-20W </li></ul><ul><li>Functionalize the microbes of the body </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineered microbes could generate power or store power or could have compute capabilities </li></ul></ul>