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what it takes              to feed this citythe newoptimists          forum               #TNOfood
feeding this city: what’s needed?
feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does an individual need?
feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does an individual need?
feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?
feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?
feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?now think London, Tokyo, New York, Sao Paulo, Seoul, ...
feeding this city: with food grown where?
feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 p...
feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 p...
feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 p...
feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre                                The yellow square represents  ...
feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre                                The yellow square represents  ...
feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road                                      The yellow squar...
feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road                                      The yellow squar...
feeding this city: nor here . . .
feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbation
feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbation                                    from Portrait of the West Midlands ...
feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbationpopulation density ≈30 people on a rugbypitchWest Midlands conurbation:...
feeding this city: locally grown food?
feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make?
feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make?      foodmatters.org      estim...
feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make?      foodmatters.org      estim...
feeding this city: food from where?
feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .                                          ...
feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .                                          ...
demographics & the health of the population
demographics & the health of the population
demographics & the health of the population
demographics & the health of the population37% of the UK population (26M)will be over 60 by 2050 — that’syou lot!only 13M ...
local food growing: growingbirmingham.org
local food growing: growingbirmingham.orgwhy bother?
local food growing: growingbirmingham.orgwhy bother?    social & civic: conviviality . . . it’s fun . . . relatively easy ...
local food growing: growingbirmingham.org                AND           very, very very          fresh fruit & veg     tast...
power: distributed energy?                decarbonisation: city communities using their                     waste to fuel ...
mass transit: getting people & goods about               ?
IMAGINE                  the UK in economic decline plus high global food prices & high global energy prices . . .this wor...
food security: useful info & links    ➡Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 billion people       Godfray, Beddington ...
the new     optimists                    forum                 www.newoptimists.com                       @newoptimistsour...
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TNO-BLF_ Feeding_birmingham

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Presentation by Kate Cooper on 1st December 2012 at the workshop "Creating stories from the future: Food futures for Birmingham 2050"

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TNO-BLF_ Feeding_birmingham

  1. 1. what it takes to feed this citythe newoptimists forum #TNOfood
  2. 2. feeding this city: what’s needed?
  3. 3. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does an individual need?
  4. 4. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does an individual need?
  5. 5. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?
  6. 6. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?
  7. 7. feeding this city: what’s needed? How much food does Birmingham need?now think London, Tokyo, New York, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Mexico City, Osaka, Manila, Mumbai, Delhi, Jakarta, Lagos, Kolkata, Cairo, Los Angeles . . . 9bn in 2050
  8. 8. feeding this city: with food grown where?
  9. 9. feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 people . . .
  10. 10. feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 people . . . United Nations FAO actual figures: ✓1960: average hectare of arable land supported 2.4 people ✓2005: average hectare of arable land supported 4.5 people
  11. 11. feeding this city: with food grown where?Let’s assume a hectare of highly fertile, intensively farmedland can support 10 people . . . United Nations FAO actual figures: ✓1960: average hectare of arable land supported 2.4 people ✓2005: average hectare of arable land supported 4.5 people . . . and explore where it doesn’t come from
  12. 12. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
  13. 13. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
  14. 14. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre
  15. 15. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre The yellow square represents 4 hectares. i.e. were it highly fertile & intensively farmed, it could support 40 people at most.
  16. 16. feeding this city: not from here . . .Birmingham city centre The yellow square represents 4 hectares. i.e. were it highly fertile & intensively farmed, it could support 40 people at most. 160,000+ commuters travel daily to the city centre
  17. 17. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
  18. 18. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
  19. 19. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road
  20. 20. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road The yellow square represents one hectare. Uplands Allotments are on ~15 hectares.
  21. 21. feeding this city: nor here . . .The Uplands Allotments, Oxhill Road The yellow square represents one hectare. Uplands Allotments are on ~15 hectares. The city has 200 hectares of allotments, plus 3.2K ha of parks and open spaces.
  22. 22. feeding this city: nor here . . .
  23. 23. feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbation
  24. 24. feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbation from Portrait of the West Midlands Angela Medland, ONS
  25. 25. feeding this city: nor here . . .The WM conurbationpopulation density ≈30 people on a rugbypitchWest Midlands conurbation: Population: 2.3MPopulation density: 3,808 km2(38.08 per hectare)Birmingham’s population: 1MPopulation density: 3872 people/km2(38.72 per hectare)plus their housing & from Portrait of the West Midlands Angela Medland, ONS
  26. 26. feeding this city: locally grown food?
  27. 27. feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make?
  28. 28. feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make? foodmatters.org estimate that Brighton & Hove’s urban agriculture (incl allotments, gardens, parks, etc) supplies 0.14% of its needs
  29. 29. feeding this city: locally grown food?What difference does eating locally grown food make? foodmatters.org estimate that Brighton & Hove’s urban agriculture (incl allotments, gardens, parks, etc) supplies 0.14% of its needs CPRE (2012) From field to fork:The values of England’s local food webs estimate the potential for consumers across the UK to eat ‘locally’ grown food would be 2% max of our spend
  30. 30. feeding this city: food from where?
  31. 31. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
  32. 32. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
  33. 33. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . .
  34. 34. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . . 5M ha of agricultural land in the UK is used for crops Cereals make up ~80% of this proteins and sugar beet 13% horticulture 4% potatoes 3% The UK imports ~40% of its food (cf 70% in 1939) Source: Defra 2012
  35. 35. feeding this city: food from where?places like this: just north of Wisbech . . . 5M ha of agricultural land in the UK is used for crops Cereals make up ~80% of this proteins and sugar beet 13% horticulture 4% potatoes 3% The UK imports ~40% of its food (cf 70% in 1939) Source: Defra 2012 a thought experiment . . . this Wisbech farmer decides to grow & eat all the family’s food
  36. 36. demographics & the health of the population
  37. 37. demographics & the health of the population
  38. 38. demographics & the health of the population
  39. 39. demographics & the health of the population37% of the UK population (26M)will be over 60 by 2050 — that’syou lot!only 13M will be children . . .
  40. 40. local food growing: growingbirmingham.org
  41. 41. local food growing: growingbirmingham.orgwhy bother?
  42. 42. local food growing: growingbirmingham.orgwhy bother? social & civic: conviviality . . . it’s fun . . . relatively easy . . . kids love it . . . makes the city look great . . . it’s social glue meeting obesity & other health issues: ‘magic’ happens when communities have food growing in their midst . . . a good day’s work: labour intensive . . . and horticulture is an inherently optimistic activity, often highly sociable . . . a lifetime’s activity where expertise is gifted from one to another & there are career opportunities at all levels decarbonisation: city communities using their waste to fuel their energy . . . & (maybe) growing biomass on contaminated land
  43. 43. local food growing: growingbirmingham.org AND very, very very fresh fruit & veg tastes absolutely fantastic!
  44. 44. power: distributed energy? decarbonisation: city communities using their waste to fuel their energy . . . & (maybe) growing biomass on contaminated land
  45. 45. mass transit: getting people & goods about ?
  46. 46. IMAGINE the UK in economic decline plus high global food prices & high global energy prices . . .this world what’s past is prologue: what to come in 2050: in yours and my discharge DIAGRAM: what it takes to feed Birmingham The Tempest Act 2 scene I BIRMINGHAM SUSTAINABILITY FORUM: feeding the city eating as “social glue” protein shortages being smarter about using food: buying less, eating less, wasting lessWill the lights go out? & Birmingham is where diet & health for individuals . . . distributed energy systems:potential to supply 10-50% of the [happy] children eat [well] the health of the whole£2.6bn we use now population . . . and regeneration or game-changer? its impact on social & civic ➡ community ownership? infrastructure ➡ waste-energy nexus? ➡ exportable social and engineering urban agriculture technologies? urban horticulture . . . why bother? mass transit systems the psychology of time, travel & the new intelligent design optimists forum ASSUME this world in 2050: Earth a min 2-4oC warmer + resource depletion + 9 billion people
  47. 47. food security: useful info & links ➡Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 billion people Godfray, Beddington et al. Science, Volume 327. 12 February 2010 ➡ Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming. 2011 Final Report Government Office for Science ➡ Green Food Project — Conclusions DEFRA 2012 ➡ Securing Future Food Supplies to 2050: Government Response to the Committee’s 4th Report of the Session 2008-09 House of Commons Environment, Food & Rural Affairs ➡ foodsecurity.ac.uk (Tim Benton, Leeds University. UK champion for global food security) ➡ fooddeserts.org (Hillary Shaw, Harper Adams) also ➡ Portrait of the West Midlands Alison Medland, ONS 2011
  48. 48. the new optimists forum www.newoptimists.com @newoptimistsour thanks to the following organisations for their kind support

Presentation by Kate Cooper on 1st December 2012 at the workshop "Creating stories from the future: Food futures for Birmingham 2050"

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