Risk assessment of coastal zones in the        European part of Russia.Asov and Black Seas study (Krasnodar region).      ...
Object and purposeObject – aqua-territorial systems as a type of social-ecological systemsSubject – influence of natural p...
The study area                  Asov and Black                 sea coastal area of                       Russia           ...
Municipal districts and main cities of  Krasnodar    region(Krasnodarsky     kray)
Some Examples of Flood Damage in        the Kuban River Basin      Date           Flood reason                           D...
Number of significant flood events during                                the observation period (from XVIII century)number...
Potential flooding zones and observed             flooding areas
Cuban and Eya rivers areas  Black sea rivers areas
Cuban river flood event (July, 2002)
The basic concepts of Russian          approachAntroposphere                                Natural                       ...
Risk Asessment Methodology in                 Russia                         R = p*DR — riskp — hazard probability (%)D — ...
The scheme for selection of indicators to assess        risk of flooding on regional level      (N.Frolova and others, 201...
Map of the index of the natural hazards offlooding (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)                         Index of t...
Map of the sociol-economic vulnerability of the territory  during floods (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)             ...
Map of typological zoning of Russia on the degree of  flood risk (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia)                     ...
Damage Asessment Methodology of Russian Emergency ministry                                       D=Dφ×θ ∑ Si Кi PiI – haza...
Destruction coefficients                                                        Medium level of                      High ...
Integral aproach.            Scheme for indicators collection                             Exposure                  Vulner...
Database• Data from the Russian Statistical Service  (Rosstat) for municipal districts (local level),  federal ministries,...
Spatial                    Cost                 Susceptibil               Coping                 Adaptive                 ...
Cost                                Spatial                      parameters                                               ...
Cost                                Spatial                   parameters                                                  ...
WorldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database                                                             Vul...
Unification of variable indicator X    I = (X - Xo)/(X*-Xo)          (1)– monotonic increasing dependence  between variabl...
Municipal                                               Lack of coping Lack of adaptive                             Exposu...
Lack of capacity andsusceptibility indeces
Exposure and vulnerability        indeces
Municipal Risk Index
Future directions1.Seasonal or day / night vulnerability2. Damage estimation (Russian methodology) for case area3. Worksho...
Map from the GIS cadastral  register. Temryuk city
Thank you for your attention!
Natural Risk Assessement
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Natural Risk Assessement

  1. 1. Risk assessment of coastal zones in the European part of Russia.Asov and Black Seas study (Krasnodar region). Lomonosov Moscow State University Faculty of Geography Natural Risk Asessment Laboratory (NRAL) Inna Krylenko Natalya Yumina Stepan Zemtsov
  2. 2. Object and purposeObject – aqua-territorial systems as a type of social-ecological systemsSubject – influence of natural processes (river flooding) on aqua-territorial systemsPurpose – an estimation of influence (risk and damage assessment) of natural processes on aqua-territorial systems
  3. 3. The study area Asov and Black sea coastal area of Russia Region Krasnodarsky kray (76 th. sq. km 5,3 mln. people) Case study Temryuk municipal district
  4. 4. Municipal districts and main cities of Krasnodar region(Krasnodarsky kray)
  5. 5. Some Examples of Flood Damage in the Kuban River Basin Date Flood reason Damage Around 500 000 ga, 132 setlements, more than 22 500 houses were flooded, 113 economic objects were Haivy rains and damaged in Krasnodar region. 1998, march groundwater level Huge flood activated landslide processes in rise Temryuk city. Around 107 privat houses were damaged and 300 people were injured in Temryuk region. Ice jams, Huge area along the river and part of Temryuk city2001, december — haivy rains and were flooded (around 74 ga). 2002, january reservoir 3283 people were injured releases Snow melting One of the river dam was broken. 2002, july 1,5 km2 of rice fields and pump station were flooded and haivy rains 2011, february Surge Water level rised on 1,5 m
  6. 6. Number of significant flood events during the observation period (from XVIII century)number of floods per 10 years 6 5 4 3 Kuban River 2 1 Mouth 0 40 70 00 30 60 90 20 50 80 11 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 period of time number of floods per 10 years 8 7 6 5 Black Sea 4 3 Rivers 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 1 93 195 97 99 01 0- 0- 0- -1 0- 1 0- 2 90 92 94 60 98 00 1 1 1 19 1 2 period of time
  7. 7. Potential flooding zones and observed flooding areas
  8. 8. Cuban and Eya rivers areas Black sea rivers areas
  9. 9. Cuban river flood event (July, 2002)
  10. 10. The basic concepts of Russian approachAntroposphere Natural hazards Atmosphere Ecological sphere Hydrosphere Litosphere Biosphere Technosphere 1. Infrastructure 2. Fixed funds Social-economic geosystem Sociosphere or 1. Socio-demographic social-ecological system 2. Ecomomy3. Political-administrative 4. Cultural Psychological sphere
  11. 11. Risk Asessment Methodology in Russia R = p*DR — riskp — hazard probability (%)D — expected damage D = d*S + Cd — real damage per exposure area (rub*km2) — depends on flood depth, velocity, duration and land developmentS — exposure area (km2)C — costs of preventive measures (rub)
  12. 12. The scheme for selection of indicators to assess risk of flooding on regional level (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia) Flood risk assessment Assessment of natural hazards Vulnerability assessment Natural factors Socio-economic factors 1. Probability of flooding 1. Average population desity of coastal areas 2. Proportion of the population 2. Scales of the phenomenon in the flood zone - maximum excess 3. Anthropogenic conditionality of the flooding level of emergencies - flood duration 4. Main funds in the economy - exposure area 5. Human development index 3. Riverbed factor Map of the index Map of the socio-economic of the natural hazards of flooding vulnerability index Map of flood risk
  13. 13. Map of the index of the natural hazards offlooding (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia) Index of the natural hazards of flooding
  14. 14. Map of the sociol-economic vulnerability of the territory during floods (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia) Socio-economic vulnerability index
  15. 15. Map of typological zoning of Russia on the degree of flood risk (N.Frolova and others, 2011, Russia) Classes of flood risk Low risk Average Very high risk risk Insignificant Extremely high risk High risk risk
  16. 16. Damage Asessment Methodology of Russian Emergency ministry D=Dφ×θ ∑ Si Кi PiI – hazard level (1≤ i ≤3),Dφ×θ – damage coefficient for different types of damageSi – exposure area for each level of hazardКi – level of destruction coefficientPi – concentration coefficient:ρi - density of population in each hazardous zoneρфон – density of population in the region,М – population of the region,mi – population in the zones of low (i=1), medium (i=2) and high (i=3) hazardСreg - net assets value of fixed production assets for year of census,n – years from census data,Ki – level of destruction coefficient.
  17. 17. Destruction coefficients Medium level of High level of destruction Low level of destruction destructionType of building Depth, Velocity, Duration, Depth, Velocity, Duration, Velocity, Duration, Depth, m m m/s hours m m/s hours m/s hours Brick buildings 4 2,5 170 3 2 100 2 1 50 (1-3 stages)Industry buildings with light metal 5 2,5 170 3,5 2 100 2 1,5 50 construction Brick buildings (more than 4 6 3 240 4 2,5 170 2,5 1,5 100 stages)Industry massive 7,5 4 240 6 3 170 3 1,5 100 construction
  18. 18. Integral aproach. Scheme for indicators collection Exposure Vulnerability Damage Sphere Dimension Spatial Cost Susceptibili Coping Adaptive objects parameters ty capacity capacity for damage I.Environment II. InfrastructurTechnosphere e Fixed funds; Description: Name Indicator Level Source industry and service III. Social- Sociosphere demographi c Economy Political- administrati ve Cultural
  19. 19. Database• Data from the Russian Statistical Service (Rosstat) for municipal districts (local level), federal ministries, departments of Krasnodarsky region administration, and etc.• More than 300 indicators for 14 municipal districts from 2007 to 2011 years• Seasonal data
  20. 20. Spatial Cost Susceptibil Coping Adaptive objects parameters ity capacity capacity Sphere for damage Dimension Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Number of Concentra members Landscap Ecological tion Index Rare Share of Ecological of Biodiversi e recovery enthusiast for landscapes all area capacity ecological ty time s landscape organizati s ons Wild Share of Share of Ecological animals endangere all area capacity areas d speciesI. Environment Quantity Ecological Polluted Share of Ecologic of Pollution Pollution investmen area all area al fines chemical t fertilizers Number of waste processing Pollution factories
  21. 21. Cost Spatial parameters Coping Adaptive Dimension objects for damage Susceptibility capacity capacity Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Length of Susceptibilit Share of Cost of Recovery Share of Length and Roads improved Roads y of different improved Dams kilometer crews population location roads roads roads Water supply Water supply Cost of Alarm Length and Length Number Bulk rolls system system kilometer systems location Infrastructure Sewerage Sewerage Cost of Evacuation Irrigation Area and Length system system kilometer plans system location Hydro and Heating Heating Cost of Siren Length meteorologic system system kilometer networks al stations Share of all Agricultural Cost of fixed Agricultural ? Agricultural area enterprises funds management lands Share of Susceptibilit Share of different y of different susceptible Industry crops crops plants II.Technosphe Share of all Forest Cost of fixed Forest ? re area enterprises funds management Forest lands Share of Susceptibilit Share of different y of different susceptible trees trees trees Susceptibilit Share of Fixed funds Industrial y of different Funds Cost susceptible of industries area types of buildings buildings Susceptibilit Share of Fixed funds Service y of different Funds Cost susceptible Fixed funds of service objects types of buildings buildings Susceptibilit Share of Fixed funds Dwellings Funds Cost y of different fragile of dwellings area types of dwellings buildings
  22. 22. Cost Spatial parameters Coping Adaptive Sphere Dimension objects for damage Susceptibility capacity capacity Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Name Indicator Population Share of old Level of Value of Susceptible Emergency Share of exposed to People ? and young Education primary peoples life people crews population hazards people education Percentage of Number of population participants in Diversificatio Herfindahl– with incomes Emergency voluntary Poor people n of labour Hirschman below the public crews groups for the market Index Sociol- subsistence protection of demographic minimum public order Unemploymen t rate Average Income per monthly capita wages Social ? networks Sales of own- Industry Volume of Cost of produced Diversificatio Insurance enterprises production production goods and n of economy services III. Income ofSociosphere Income Economy enterprises Share of The share of Herfindahl– Profits of different own revenues Hirschman budget sources of of local Index budget profits budgets Investment Number of Time for hospital bed Administratio building per 10000 n efficiency Medical license inhabitants service Political- Number of administrative physicians per Private health ? 10000 expenditure inhabitants Administratio Suspicious n transactions Susceptibility Cultural of different Share of nations migrants
  23. 23. WorldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database Vulnerability Susceptibility Housing Public infrastructure Poverty and dependencies Economic capacity Index conditions The share of the The share of the The share of the population Length of population served by Sales of own- Length of The share of the population with benefiting from improved the departments of produced goods,improved water inhabitants in incomes below social sanitation / social services at works and services /source / people fragile dwellings the subsistence assistance to people home for senior people minimum pay for housing citizens and disabled services 0,075 0,075 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,25 0,33 Lack of coping capacity Government and authoritiees Medical services Social networks Material coverage Index Share of Number of Number of The share of participants inUnemployment hospital beds physicians per Average monthly own revenues of voluntary groups rate per 10000 10000 wages per capita local budgets for the protection inhabitants inhabitants of public order 0,1 0,10 0,22 0,22 0,26 0,1 0,33 Lack of adaptive capacity Environmental Adaptation Education Investment Index management strategies Diversification of Share of the labour Observed Private employed market /Maximum flood investment / people with (Herfindahl– area peoplegood education Hirschman Index) 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,33
  24. 24. Unification of variable indicator X I = (X - Xo)/(X*-Xo) (1)– monotonic increasing dependence between variable X and index I I =1-(Xo - X)/(X*-Xo) (2)– monotonic decreasing dependence Xo – minimum of variable X among N municipal districts, X* – maximum Index I belongs to [0,1]
  25. 25. Municipal Lack of coping Lack of adaptive Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Risk capacity capacity Index Novorossiysk 0,02 0,05 0,40 0,26 0,37 0,58 Gelendzhik 0,03 0,07 0,42 0,47 0,25 0,55 Sochi 0,03 0,06 0,51 0,66 0,39 0,47 Tuapsinsky 0,04 0,09 0,50 0,45 0,56 0,49 Sherbinovsky 0,08 0,11 0,70 0,65 0,68 0,79 Kanevsky 0,09 0,14 0,62 0,40 0,70 0,77 Eysky 0,10 0,16 0,65 0,67 0,66 0,63 Anapa 0,13 0,28 0,47 0,49 0,36 0,56 Krymsky 0,14 0,24 0,58 0,67 0,59 0,49Krasnoarmeysky 0,23 0,32 0,70 0,56 0,83 0,72 Temryuksky 0,26 0,53 0,49 0,45 0,74 0,27 Kalininsky 0,35 0,47 0,74 0,63 0,86 0,75 Primorsko- Akhtarsky 0,39 0,7 0,56 0,63 0,65 0,40 Slavyansky 0,45 0,75 0,59 0,43 0,71 0,65
  26. 26. Lack of capacity andsusceptibility indeces
  27. 27. Exposure and vulnerability indeces
  28. 28. Municipal Risk Index
  29. 29. Future directions1.Seasonal or day / night vulnerability2. Damage estimation (Russian methodology) for case area3. Workshop (elaboration of indicators)4. Survey (verification of methodology, search for someindicators) on the case area5. Experts‘ interviews (Emergency ministry, Hydrologicalservice, Economic department of local government, etc.)6. Resilience estimation (methodology, indicators, etc.)
  30. 30. Map from the GIS cadastral register. Temryuk city
  31. 31. Thank you for your attention!

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