“Il nucleare per l’economia, l’ambiente e lo sviluppo”


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Alcuni scenari di studio per comprendere i possibili impatti ambientali, occupazionali e di sicurezza energetica derivanti dalla costruzione e dalla conseguente messa in esercizio di nuove centrali nucleari nel nostro paese, come previsto dal Governo attraverso la “Legge Sviluppo” del 2009.

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“Il nucleare per l’economia, l’ambiente e lo sviluppo”

  1. 1. Results of the studyNuclear power for the economy,environment and development“An opportunity to give Italy new energy” <br />
  2. 2. Steering Committee<br />xx<br />FatihBirol<br />Chief Economist, International Energy Agency<br />Gianluca Comin<br />Director of External Relations, Enel<br />Bruno D’Onghia<br />General Manager – Italy, EDF<br />Sergio Garribba<br />Member of the Board of Energy Policies, Ministry for Economic Development<br />Maurizio Lupi<br />Vice President, Italian Chamber of Deputies<br />Carlo Rossella<br />Journalist and Chairman, Medusa Film<br />Nicola Rossi<br />Professor of Political Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata<br />Umberto Veronesi<br />Scientific Director, European Institute of Oncology<br />
  3. 3. The world will demand more and more energy<br />TWh<br />Global electricity demand <br />+ 326%<br />Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Scenario, IEA<br />
  4. 4. “3+1” key objectives to be achieved<br />Security of the supplies obtained<br />Economic sustainability (stable low prices)<br />Environmental sustainability <br />+<br />Reduction of dependency on fossilfuel sources<br />(in the medium-long term)<br />
  5. 5. Will this mean a nuclear renaissance?<br />438 operating nuclear reactorsin 2010 (52 in 1966)<br />61 under construction and 149 planned reactors<br />LEGEND (MW)<br />x ≤ 2000<br />2001 ≤ x ≥ 10000<br />10001 ≤ x ≥ 30000 <br />30001 ≤ x ≥ 60000 <br />60001 ≤ x ≥ 80000 <br />x ≥ 80001 <br />Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti on international database<br />
  6. 6. Nuclear power: lower CO2 emissions<br />g/KWh<br />Source: IAEA<br />
  7. 7. Nuclearpower: lowergeneratingcosts<br />Source: IEA, Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010<br />
  8. 8. Energy sustainability challenge for Italy<br />Primary energy: 86%dependency on foreign countries<br />(EU average: 53%)<br />Annual electricity consumption: 14%imported<br />(one of the world top 5 importer)<br />Production of electricity: >65% from gas, oil and their by-products (EU average: 27%)<br />Electricity price: +25-35% vs. EU average (and high volatility)<br />Source: The European House-Ambrosetti on AEEG, Eurostat, European Commission and Terna data<br />
  9. 9. Electricity demand trend in Italy<br />439 TWhin 2030*<br />(+ 36% since 2010)<br />TWh<br />Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti<br />(*) Hypothetical scenarios and studies (not<br />forecasts); they includes hypotheses on energy efficiency measures<br />
  10. 10. 3 possible electricity generation study mixes for 2030* <br />(110 TWh)<br />(155 TWh)<br />(100 TWh)<br />(110 TWh)<br />(297 TWh)<br />(252 TWh)<br />(197 TWh)<br />Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti<br />(*) Non previsional study scenarios complying with EU “Climate and Energy Package” and with Italian Government “National Action Plan for Renewable Energy Sources”<br />
  11. 11. Electricity generation 2020-2030 with nuclear power<br />Bln €<br />Lower Cost (Bln €) of Integration Scenario<br />-51 vs. Reference<br />-69 vs. Alternative<br />Reduced CO2 emission (Mton) of Integration Sc.<br />-381 vs. Reference <br />-236 vs. Alternative <br />563<br />545<br />494<br />Source: The EuropeanHouse-Ambrosetti<br />
  12. 12. Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (1)<br />National Industry Development<br />One nuclear unit*: <br />2/3 Bln € potential orders for Italian industry(3/4 Bln € with new competences)<br />>10.000 jobs (highly specialized)**<br /> (9,000 construction; 1,200 operation; 150 decommissioning)<br />+<br />National nuclear program as a “launching pad” for the wider global market (value 400/500 Bln €)<br />Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, Politecnico di Milano<br />(*) III generation nuclear reactor operating in Europe<br />(**) Direct, indirect, related<br />
  13. 13. Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (2)<br />Enhancement of country’s competitiveness<br />Reduction and stabilization of electricity costs and prices<br />Improvement and integration of the national energy supply chain, with positive impacts on energy users<br />Improvement of country’s competences and human capital<br />Overall impacts on the economic system:<br />+4.5-11 Bln €/year for greater overall production<br />+38-81 thousand man-years<br />Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, CERTeTBocconi<br />
  14. 14. Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (3)<br />Enhancement of geopolitical positioning<br />Reduction of political risk for current energy dependency<br />Possibility of increasing participation in the construction of global governance in the near future<br />Possibility of reinforcing international cooperation (especially on the southern side of the Mediterranean)<br />Possibility of participating in multilateral working groups to control nuclear proliferation<br />Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, V. E. Parsi<br />
  15. 15. Concluding Remarks<br />Nuclear energy is experiencing a globalgrowth, as it is a safe technology, with lower generation costs and CO2 emissions<br />“Return to nuclear” can provide considerable benefits for Italy: energy sustainability and as a driver for development<br />The nuclear program is an opportunity for Italy, but it has to be a shared choice of the country<br />