Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
The Guessing Game
Alternatives to Agile Estimation
WHAT WILL I GET
AND WHEN?
ARE WE ESTIMATING
OR GUESSING?
ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES
ESTIMATES SET
EXPECTATIONS
ESTIMATES ARE
SELF-FULFILLING
A TYPICAL DYSFUNCTION
USING ESTIMATES
Present a
business case
Estimate
team & other
cost ==> ROI
Put team
together
Team
estimates
Is the
estimate
too big?
Reduc...
HOW DO WE PRIORITISE?
HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE
BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?
Project lifecycle
Assumption lifecycle
PROJECTS MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS
BIG BETS ARE
RISKY
WE MUST CONSIDER
EMERGENT VALUE
MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?
BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINE
WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k?
USE REAL CONSTRAINTS
BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLE
WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k?
ITERATE ON QUALITY
Present a
business case
Approved as
viable option
Team
assigned
2-4 week
experiment
Is initiative
still valuable
enough?
N...
MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCH
DIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET)
SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS
BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMS
ENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY
HIRE THE "A-TEAM"
REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLY
STOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES
FOCUS ON VALUE
BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORS
DRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY
RESPOND TO CHANGE
WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FOR
DELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT
PREDICTABLE DELIVERY
HOW DO WE AGREE
PRICE & TERMS WITH
OUR CUSTOMERS?
CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIA
WELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE
COLLABORATION
ITERATIVE PRICING
SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATION
CUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY
FLEXIBLE OPTIONS
FEATURE DELIVERY
WITHOUT ESTIMATING
USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST"
SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE
STORY COUNT > STORY POINTS
DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT
PRICE PER FEATURE
WHY IS THIS
SO IMPORTANT?
STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMING
ESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES
CULTURE OF HONESTY
WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICES
WE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS
FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY
ON TIME, ON BUDGET?
I want to shift focus
away from estimating and onto
delivering value to
stakeholders & customers...
So that I am empowered...
Neil Killick
neilkillick.com
Thank you
Questions?
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The Guessing Game - Alternatives to Agile Estimation

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The Guessing Game - Alternatives to Agile Estimation

  1. 1. Neil Killick neilkillick.com The Guessing Game Alternatives to Agile Estimation
  2. 2. WHAT WILL I GET AND WHEN?
  3. 3. ARE WE ESTIMATING OR GUESSING?
  4. 4. ARBITRARY PROJECT BOUNDARIES ESTIMATES SET EXPECTATIONS
  5. 5. ESTIMATES ARE SELF-FULFILLING
  6. 6. A TYPICAL DYSFUNCTION USING ESTIMATES
  7. 7. Present a business case Estimate team & other cost ==> ROI Put team together Team estimates Is the estimate too big? Reduce scope Project approved NO YES Ditch project? Business case approved & project prioritised but when will it start? Complete guess? HOW DO WE ESTIMATE COST?
  8. 8. HOW DO WE PRIORITISE?
  9. 9. HOW DO WE KNOW WE'RE BUILDING THE RIGHT THING?
  10. 10. Project lifecycle Assumption lifecycle PROJECTS MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
  11. 11. BIG BETS ARE RISKY
  12. 12. WE MUST CONSIDER EMERGENT VALUE
  13. 13. MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
  14. 14. WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE?
  15. 15. BUDGET CREATES A REAL DEADLINE WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $500k? USE REAL CONSTRAINTS
  16. 16. BUILD & LEARN WHAT IS POSSIBLE WHAT CAN WE BUILD FOR $50k? ITERATE ON QUALITY
  17. 17. Present a business case Approved as viable option Team assigned 2-4 week experiment Is initiative still valuable enough? NO Initiative prioritised YES + Team(s) if required Frequent delivery & feedback loop PUT THE ITERATE INTO ITERATIONS! Stop
  18. 18. MULTIPLE OPTIONS, EASY TO SWITCH DIVERSIFY RISK (e.g. STOCK MARKET) SMALL BETS & EXPERIMENTS
  19. 19. BUILD FIXED, CAPABLE TEAMS ENABLE CONTINUOUS DELIVERY HIRE THE "A-TEAM"
  20. 20. REVIEW ROI MONTHLY, NOT ANNUALLY STOP FUNDING IF VALUE DIMINISHES FOCUS ON VALUE
  21. 21. BE PROACTIVE TO BEAT COMPETITORS DRIP FUNDING ENABLES TRUE AGILITY RESPOND TO CHANGE
  22. 22. WORK ON FEATURES WHEN ASKED FOR DELIVER AS SOON AS THEY ARE BUILT PREDICTABLE DELIVERY
  23. 23. HOW DO WE AGREE PRICE & TERMS WITH OUR CUSTOMERS?
  24. 24. CHOOSE TRUST OVER PARANOIA WELCOME & EMBRACE CHANGE COLLABORATION
  25. 25. ITERATIVE PRICING
  26. 26. SET DELIVERY & QUALITY EXPECTATION CUSTOMER CAN CUT CORD EARLY FLEXIBLE OPTIONS
  27. 27. FEATURE DELIVERY WITHOUT ESTIMATING
  28. 28. USE HEURISTIC, E.G. "1 ACCEPTANCE TEST" SLICE FEATURES SIMPLE
  29. 29. STORY COUNT > STORY POINTS
  30. 30. DERIVE COST WITH THROUGHPUT PRICE PER FEATURE
  31. 31. WHY IS THIS SO IMPORTANT?
  32. 32. STORY POINTS LEAD TO GAMING ESTIMATES ARE NOT PROMISES CULTURE OF HONESTY
  33. 33. WE WANT TO MAKE GOOD CHOICES WE WANT TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS FREEDOM OF CREATIVITY
  34. 34. ON TIME, ON BUDGET?
  35. 35. I want to shift focus away from estimating and onto delivering value to stakeholders & customers... So that I am empowered to make the right decisions and @neil_killick #NoEstimates AS A SOFTWARE PRACTITIONER BUILD THE RIGHT THING
  36. 36. Neil Killick neilkillick.com Thank you Questions?

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