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Neil Killick, Lead Agile Coach
neilkillick.com neil2killick@gmail.com @neil_killick
A simple model for
Estimating without ...
In complex environments, what will happen
is unknown.
Only what has happened may be used for
forward-looking decision-maki...
Backlog Doing Done
How long will this card take?
Ready
?
Backlog Doing Done
Days
Stories
1
2
3
4
5 5.3%
5.3%
26.3%
How long will this card take?
26.3%
36.8%
Ready
100.0%
94.7%
89....
Milestone 1
Backlog
Doing Done
How about this card?
Ready
?
Measure throughput and standard
deviation (variance).
The variance empirically represents
different story sizes.
Throughpu...
Average throughput + standard deviation
= Optimistic throughput forecast
Average throughput - standard deviation
= Pessimi...
We can now answer the standard estimate
questions using empirical data.
When will milestone 1 be done?
Most likely mid-late
December
What will be done by Jan 1st?
Most likely,
milestone 1 and
some of milestone 2
When will milestone 2 be done?
Most likely in first
half of January
Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 1st?
(aka “Are we on track?”)
Highly unlikely
(optimistic forecast for
current scope falls...
Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 4th?
Maybe
(optimistic says yes, neutral
says no)
Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 7th?
Maybe
(neutral says yes,
pessimistic says no)
Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 15th?
Highly likely
(pessimistic forecast for
current scope falls before
date)
❏ Use empirical data
❏ Measure throughput and incorporate variance
using standard deviation
❏ Avoid surprises by using ran...
Neil Killick, Lead Agile Coach
neilkillick.com neil2killick@gmail.com @neil_killick
Copyright Neil Killick, 2015
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A simple model for estimating without guessing

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A straightforward way to forecast project progress in an agile environment.

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A simple model for estimating without guessing

  1. 1. Neil Killick, Lead Agile Coach neilkillick.com neil2killick@gmail.com @neil_killick A simple model for Estimating without guessing Copyright Neil Killick, 2015
  2. 2. In complex environments, what will happen is unknown. Only what has happened may be used for forward-looking decision-making. -- The Scrum Guide
  3. 3. Backlog Doing Done How long will this card take? Ready ?
  4. 4. Backlog Doing Done Days Stories 1 2 3 4 5 5.3% 5.3% 26.3% How long will this card take? 26.3% 36.8% Ready 100.0% 94.7% 89.4% 63.1% 36.8% ?
  5. 5. Milestone 1 Backlog Doing Done How about this card? Ready ?
  6. 6. Measure throughput and standard deviation (variance). The variance empirically represents different story sizes. Throughput: 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 4 Avg throughput = 4.3 Std dev = 0.5 Throughput: 4, 8, 2, 3, 5, 4, 4 Avg throughput = 4.3 Std dev = 1.9
  7. 7. Average throughput + standard deviation = Optimistic throughput forecast Average throughput - standard deviation = Pessimistic throughput forecast
  8. 8. We can now answer the standard estimate questions using empirical data.
  9. 9. When will milestone 1 be done? Most likely mid-late December
  10. 10. What will be done by Jan 1st? Most likely, milestone 1 and some of milestone 2
  11. 11. When will milestone 2 be done? Most likely in first half of January
  12. 12. Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 1st? (aka “Are we on track?”) Highly unlikely (optimistic forecast for current scope falls after date)
  13. 13. Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 4th? Maybe (optimistic says yes, neutral says no)
  14. 14. Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 7th? Maybe (neutral says yes, pessimistic says no)
  15. 15. Will milestone 2 be done by Jan 15th? Highly likely (pessimistic forecast for current scope falls before date)
  16. 16. ❏ Use empirical data ❏ Measure throughput and incorporate variance using standard deviation ❏ Avoid surprises by using ranges and shades of confidence In summary
  17. 17. Neil Killick, Lead Agile Coach neilkillick.com neil2killick@gmail.com @neil_killick Copyright Neil Killick, 2015

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