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GoNorth
June 4th	

Neil Cartwright	

www.MillionMedia.com
Where Next?
The Future Of Digital…
This is a summary of the presentation Neil
Cartwright gave at the GoNorth festival
open...
The Generation Gap
• “People couldn’t stream so had
to wait for music to be played on
the radio” 	

• “The iPod has made m...
We constantly
overestimate the impact
technology will have in
one year but
underestimate the
impact it will have in ten.
-...
It all started for
me with the
ZX81. This PC
had 1k of
memory,
enough to hold
0.2 seconds of
music.
August 7th 1991
The world’s first web page was
made live.
Facebook, Google, Amazon,
Twitter etc - can all be traced
back to this one page.
http	

www	

HTML	

URL’s	

Web browser	

Web server
Sir Tim Berners Lee
In 1991 the ‘world wide web’ was
launched. We are...
Sony Music, 1997
!
No email	

One internet PC	

No iPods	

“Pidgeon Holes”	

Business was very different back in
1997. Eve...
Difference in Perception
How I See Me
How Anyone Under 20
Sees Me
We constantly
overestimate the impact
technology will have in
one year but
underestimate the
impact it will have in ten.
-...
Change in 10 years
2007
2008
2006
2006
2006
2013
We can see that although change is constant
it can be almost imperceptible at the time.
Therefore, how do we predict what ...
The graph shows the dramatic
drop in US album sales over a 10
year period. The failure to predict
change was catastrophic ...
!
Companies are quick to adopt
technologies that support their
business model but are slow to
adopt technologies that disr...
This is Steve Sasson who in 1975
invented the world’s first digital
camera. It was 0.01 mega pixels and
took 23 seconds to ...
• 1975, Invented digital camera
• 1976, 90% of photographic US film sales and 80%
of cameras
• 1990’s, “Kodak Moment”
• 199...
It was filmless photography,
so management’s reaction
was, ‘that’s cute - but don’t
tell anyone about it’.
Steve Sasson, In...
iTunes
The “traditional” music
industry gave us the choice
of buying singles, albums or
compilations. The digital
service ...
iTunes has dominated the
paid music market since its
launch. This is often cited as
proof that the music industry
“gets” d...
However, as a percentage of all
the music traded, shared and
streamed, iTunes represents a
tiny fraction. It’s clear that
...
The drop in global music
sales has been huge, yet
people’s appetite for
music is higher than ever.
Clearly the market
dema...
If something is going
to happen in the end,
you may as well do it
in the beginning.
- Henry Kissinger
“
Consumer trends, s...
The total number of streams (UK) in 2013 (3.7bn) is
more than the total number of singles sold in 60
years.
26% of all entertainment revenue is now access to
content
Millions of consumers are showing
entertainment industries the w...
90% of all the world’s data was created in the last 2
years The staggering amount of data created is
growing exponentially...
NFC
Biggest revolution is yet to come…..?
50% of all
marketing will
be spent on
SoMoLo
Gerd
Leonard
I believe NFC will hav...
Feeling overloaded?
Our constant need to feel
connected is a cause of
anxiety, stress & sleep
disorders. Furthermore, coul...
We look far less to the mainstream for our
influences. Online communities, niches, tribes,
personal networks, social media,...
Are we becoming more disconnected
as we become more connected?
We are feeling a growing disconnect with politicians, corpo...
Bladerunner
An illustration of how difficult to future can
be to predict. In 1984 Ridley Scott’s
masterpiece, “Bladerunner”...
GoNorth Festival June 2014 - Keynote presentation "The future of digital"
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GoNorth Festival June 2014 - Keynote presentation "The future of digital"

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This is a copy of the GoNorth Festival keynote presentation I gave, with added notes to explain the slides to anyone who wasn't there

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GoNorth Festival June 2014 - Keynote presentation "The future of digital"

  1. 1. GoNorth June 4th Neil Cartwright www.MillionMedia.com
  2. 2. Where Next? The Future Of Digital… This is a summary of the presentation Neil Cartwright gave at the GoNorth festival opening keynote. The blue panels are notes added to assist the understanding if viewing the the presentation remotely. Some panels have been edited for better viewing.
  3. 3. The Generation Gap • “People couldn’t stream so had to wait for music to be played on the radio” • “The iPod has made music portable, which means you can listen to it anywhere” • “People stopped listening to CD’s whenYouTube was invented” • “Before Napster people had to pay for music” Students at a college I lectured at were asks to write an assignment at the end of term. Some of their comments highlight how a ‘younger generation’ view change within the music industry
  4. 4. We constantly overestimate the impact technology will have in one year but underestimate the impact it will have in ten. - Bill Gates “
  5. 5. It all started for me with the ZX81. This PC had 1k of memory, enough to hold 0.2 seconds of music.
  6. 6. August 7th 1991 The world’s first web page was made live.
  7. 7. Facebook, Google, Amazon, Twitter etc - can all be traced back to this one page.
  8. 8. http www HTML URL’s Web browser Web server Sir Tim Berners Lee In 1991 the ‘world wide web’ was launched. We are now all familiar with the strange terms used in the web’s early days
  9. 9. Sony Music, 1997 ! No email One internet PC No iPods “Pidgeon Holes” Business was very different back in 1997. Even communication tools such as email were in their infancy. And yet only 16 years later over half of Sony’s global revenue is now generated by ‘digital’ formats.
  10. 10. Difference in Perception How I See Me How Anyone Under 20 Sees Me
  11. 11. We constantly overestimate the impact technology will have in one year but underestimate the impact it will have in ten. - Bill Gates “ So, let’s remind ourselves of Bill Gates’ quote and see what has changed in 10 years
  12. 12. Change in 10 years 2007 2008 2006 2006 2006 2013
  13. 13. We can see that although change is constant it can be almost imperceptible at the time. Therefore, how do we predict what is going to change and why do companies find it so difficult?
  14. 14. The graph shows the dramatic drop in US album sales over a 10 year period. The failure to predict change was catastrophic to the people working for the high street retailers who closed as a result.
  15. 15. ! Companies are quick to adopt technologies that support their business model but are slow to adopt technologies that disrupt it. - Clayton M. Christensen,The Innovators Dilemma “
  16. 16. This is Steve Sasson who in 1975 invented the world’s first digital camera. It was 0.01 mega pixels and took 23 seconds to take a photo. But which company did he work for?
  17. 17. • 1975, Invented digital camera • 1976, 90% of photographic US film sales and 80% of cameras • 1990’s, “Kodak Moment” • 1996, $15.7bn revenues • 2012, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
  18. 18. It was filmless photography, so management’s reaction was, ‘that’s cute - but don’t tell anyone about it’. Steve Sasson, Inventor of the digital camera “
  19. 19. iTunes The “traditional” music industry gave us the choice of buying singles, albums or compilations. The digital service most favoured by the music industry gives us the choice of buying…. singles, albums or compilations. In other words, the music industry has offered consumers a ‘solution’ that is most like the one that went before.
  20. 20. iTunes has dominated the paid music market since its launch. This is often cited as proof that the music industry “gets” digital and has offered consumers an alternative to piracy.
  21. 21. However, as a percentage of all the music traded, shared and streamed, iTunes represents a tiny fraction. It’s clear that consumers have rejected the download model favoured by the industry and want a more convenient and cost effective way of accessing music with their multitude of devices.
  22. 22. The drop in global music sales has been huge, yet people’s appetite for music is higher than ever. Clearly the market demand for music is not being fulfilled due to the industry’s general reluctance to embrace a ‘disruptive’ model such as streaming or P2P
  23. 23. If something is going to happen in the end, you may as well do it in the beginning. - Henry Kissinger “ Consumer trends, such as streaming and mobile phones should be seen and acted upon. Too often companies look to the past and say, “Well, that has worked well for us” rather than in to the future and make the changes that may be necessary to their business.
  24. 24. The total number of streams (UK) in 2013 (3.7bn) is more than the total number of singles sold in 60 years.
  25. 25. 26% of all entertainment revenue is now access to content Millions of consumers are showing entertainment industries the way they want to consume their products by signing up with ‘on-demand’ services.
  26. 26. 90% of all the world’s data was created in the last 2 years The staggering amount of data created is growing exponentially each year and is an indication of how important our browsing, purchasing, sharing and social media habits will become to companies.
  27. 27. NFC Biggest revolution is yet to come…..? 50% of all marketing will be spent on SoMoLo Gerd Leonard I believe NFC will have as great an impact on our lives as any previous technology. The ability to tap on virtually any object with our phones, allied with the ability to purchase through an app or use our mobiles to pay will profoundly alter the way companies do business.
  28. 28. Feeling overloaded? Our constant need to feel connected is a cause of anxiety, stress & sleep disorders. Furthermore, could children be affected by the constant stimulus? Many people can feel overwhelmed by new technology.
  29. 29. We look far less to the mainstream for our influences. Online communities, niches, tribes, personal networks, social media, digital natives. Fashion, music, films and television will change dramatically but content worth less and less. ! ! PewDiePie is the most subscribed YouTuber in the world (27m subscribers) and so probably has more influence over his audience than any mainstream media. And yet the photo of him was only recognised by a handful of the younger members in the audience at GoNorth.
  30. 30. Are we becoming more disconnected as we become more connected? We are feeling a growing disconnect with politicians, corporations, banks, media, security services and ‘those in power’, resulting in seismic, life changing events such as Scottish independence vote, Arab Spring, Ukraine, UKIP, etc. And yet simultaneously we are more connected to our friends, family, communities and personal networks. The impact of the Internet is huge and will affect enormous social change and upheaval that is very difficult to predict.
  31. 31. Bladerunner An illustration of how difficult to future can be to predict. In 1984 Ridley Scott’s masterpiece, “Bladerunner”, featured hover cars, space travel and androids so humanlike they didn’t even know they were androids. And yet, which future year was Bladrunner set in?

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