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Nef coastal futures 2015 final slideshare

  1. Why socio-economics matters in the marine and coastal environment Marine Socio Economics Project Coordinator
  2. 3 things: 1.Re-think economics 2.Challenge current thinking & assumptions 3.Change is possible, desirable & necessary
  3. Presentation: About NEF NEFs work on EU fisheries & our fisheries model (BEMEF) The Marine Socio-Economics Project & The Blue New Deal
  4. Working towards an economy which delivers: high well-being and social justice within ecological limits NEF (New Economics Foundation - 1986)
  5. 4 ‘U’s of our current economic system › Unsustainable › Unfair › Unstable › Unhappy Why new economics?
  6. Inputs Output Current thinking– ‘progress?’ Resources Labour Growth
  7. New thinking - Progress Resources Input Well-being Output Mediator Socio-economic system e.g. economy
  8. Economics is not fit for purpose Some myths surrounding economics... • Infinite growth is possible • All natural capital is “substitutable” • People make rational decisions • Everyone is perfectly informed • Future generations will be richer than us • Markets are always fair and efficient • Wealth trickles down from rich to poor
  9. These problems are not new… • Kenneth Boulding (1910 -1993) • "Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist." ….and we are not the only people talking about it.
  10. • ‘’…counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage….It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts …the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children. ’’ • ‘’Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play…., the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. …it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.’’ Robert Kennedy (1968) Measuring Progress: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  11. "Wellbeing can't be measured by money or traded in markets. It's about the beauty of our surroundings, the quality of our culture and, above all, the strength of our relationships. Improving our society's sense of wellbeing is, I believe, the central political challenge of our times.“ (2010)/
  12. A snapshot of NEFs work….. -Redefining ‘efficiency’ -Monetary reform -Understanding systems -21 hour working week -Social Return On Investment -Influencing policy (HS2) -Influencing policy (fisheries)
  13. HPI - Happy Planet Index Turning Natural Resources into Human Wellbeing Long and happy lives that don’t cost the earth 3 components Life expectancy Life satisfaction Ecological footprint What is the measure of economic success? NEF (2012) ‘Happy Planet Index: 2012 Report’
  14. Monetary Reform • Banks create new money (bank deposits) when they lend (97% !!!) • BUT! States can create money to finance low- carbon transition – Strategic Quantitative Easing – Sovereign Money NEF (2011) ‘Where Does Money Come From?’
  15. “Most money in the modern economy is in the form of bank deposits, which are created by commercial banks themselves… When a bank makes a loan to one of its customers it simply credits the customer’s account with a higher deposit balance. At that instant, new money is created…” (BoE, 2014)
  16. Understanding systems IPCC carbon concentration IPCC temperature anomoly IEA oil price projection HMT net debt NEF (2014) ‘Model Behaviour’
  17. Rebalance Time In the 21st century a 15-hour week will suffice, and “man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem - how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to … live wisely and agreeably and well.” John Maynard Keynes, 1930, “Economic possibilities for our grandchildren” NEF (2010) ‘21 Hours’
  18. • Many things we value cannot be easily captured in traditional economic terms. • Conventional CBA does not capture wider value • Alternative tools to measure social and environmental impacts > SROI Social return on investment (SROI)
  19. Our alternative investment package: •upgrading our exiting North-South mainlines •overhaul regional rail •improving bus and light rail (e.g. tram) networks around the UK •better biking and walking infrastructure •broadband coverage across the UK High Speed Two (HS2): £32.7bn (now £50bn) trans-national high speed rail line
  20.  Influencing the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP)
  21. Key message from NEFs work on EU fisheries: “Restoring fish stocks is good for employment & the economy”
  22. Compared the performance of 43 (of 150) EU fish stocks with their potential if at Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). 1) Catches 2) Revenues 3) Employment Jobs lost at sea (2012)
  23. With every passing year that EU stocks remain overfished we are losing out on 2.7 billion pounds and the potential to support 100,000 jobs.
  24. EU Common fisheries policy reform ‘Therefore, the Union should improve the CFP by adapting exploitation rates so as to ensure that, within a reasonable time-frame, the exploitation of marine biological resources restores and maintains populations of harvested stocks above levels that can produce the maximum sustainable yield. The exploitation rates should be achieved by 2015.’
  25. We have choices about how we fish… How can we allocate resources to those that create best value to society?
  26. Good value • Viable / profitable • Low subsidy dependence • Jobs • Low impact on seabed • Low discards • Low C emissions • Low by-catch • Etc Bad value • The opposite Case study: North Sea Cod
  27. Who creates value? Who gets the quota? Who gets the subsidies? Looking at trawling vs gillnets:
  28. EU Common fisheries policy reform Article 17: Criteria for the allocation of fishing opportunities by Member States When allocating the fishing opportunities available to them, as referred to in Article 16, Member States shall use transparent and objective criteria including those of an environmental, social and economic nature.
  29. - EU Production vs consumption. - Estimates when EU countries start depending on fish from non-EU waters. Fish Dependence (2012, 2013, 2014…)
  31. The Bio-Economic Model of European Fleets (BEMEF)
  32. What is the BEMEF? • …a tool designed to visualise the economic impacts of fish stock restoration and quota re-allocation. • …for fleets where adequate data is available, BEMEF calculates current and future economic outputs including profitability, wages, and jobs. • Contact:
  33. • Countries / fleets within countries • Fish price elasticity / fuel prices / jobs est. • Change quota allocation: historic / jobs / effort / fuel • Landings / earnings/ VA / Profit / jobs / wages / Carbon
  34. The Marine Socio-Economics Project (MSEP) & The Blue New Deal
  35. The Marine Socio-Economics Project (MSEP) Building the Socio-Economic Capacity of Marine NGOs Coordinated by NEF. Four NGO partners.
  36. Started in 2012. Two key outcomes: •NGOs with increased economic capacity •NGOs working together effectively
  37. Workshops* •Impact Assessment workshops - 2012 • MSFD (Including Defra economist) • MCZs (Including Natural England economists) •Theory of Change – 2013 (outputs > outcomes). •Valuation – 2013 (focus on economic tools and techniques) •Nature & Progress seminar – July 2014 – **upcoming paper: ‘’Devaluing Nature?!’’ •EMFF workshop: Poole, Nov 2014. Including Defra, IFCAs fishermen, aquaculture businesses and FARNET / FLAGs Project activities *all presentations online –
  38. • • project website and newsletter • Economics Briefings and marine case studies → Project outputs
  39. Briefing 1 - An overview of economics Briefing 2 - How economics is used in government decisi Briefing 3 - Valuing the environment in economic terms Briefing 4 - Social cost-benefit analysis and social return o Briefing 5 - Discounting and time preferences Briefing 6 - Multi-criteria analysis Briefing 7 - Beyond GDP: Valuing what matters and measu Briefing 8 - Markets, market failure and regulation Briefing 9a - Finance and money: the basics Briefing 9b - What's wrong with our financial system? Briefing 10 - Property rights and ownership models Briefing 11 - Behavioural economics - dispelling the myths publications/entry/economics- in-policy-making
  40. • Facts and Figures ↓ Briefings: - Capture fisheries - UK marine infrastructure - Marine Energy - Marine Recreation - Flows & aquaculture
  41. Developing an Improved Impact Assessment (IIA) for MCZs Using best available evidence in a visual way Example –
  42. BLUE NEW DEAL  Numerous challenges for coastal communities….  Re-frame the marine conservation debate…  …opportunities through the marine environment.
  43. 'Blue New Deal' A healthy marine environment can support: –Good jobs; –Providing sustainable food and energy; –Increasing wellbeing; –Delivering public goods cost-effectively; –Building resilience. •Identifying solutions – More UK examples… •Contact:
  44. 3 things: 1.Re-think economics 2.Challenge the current model & assumptions 3.Change is possible, desirable & necessary
  45. Key Components of a new economy 1. Measure the right things 2. Reform finance 3. Live within environmental limits 4. Reduce inequality 5. Create Good Jobs 6. Move public policy and investment upstream/prevention 7. Reframe the role of markets and companies 8. Rethink work (paid and unpaid) 9. Build strong local economies 10.Empower people to be economic citizens
  46. THANK YOU Reports available at: Email: Follow us on twitter: @nef @MarineEconomics Newsletter(s): NEF and MSEProject available online - the links are in the delegates notes.

Editor's Notes

  2. Ideas are wrong.. Look at the assumptions… Can change things….
  3. nef is a UK based think-tank Founded in 1986 45-50 members of staff. We work to drive change towards a sustainable economy based on 3 pillars.
  4. Why do we need to make a transition to a sustainable economy? Because the current model can be defined by for U’s and one I (inefficient). We live beyond environmental limits Difference between rich – poor increases Levels of satisfaction are not increasing in spite of trebling economic growth and doubling use of resources over past 40-50 years. If we stop growing everything collapses and becomes unstable.
  5. This is how the current model sees Natural Resources and Human capital. At the moment our economy is geared towards maximising returns on capital. People and the planet are just seen as inputs. There is no room in this model to improve things for the planet or people – they are simply inputs to be used as efficiently as possible in producing the output of economic growth. And the same might be said of how we manage – see – treat our fisheries resources. We see them from a narrow economic perspective. And we are actually not even succeeding at delivering much economic benefits from them anyway.
  6. This is how our economy should be structured: We should aim at maximizing well-being returns on use of natural resources. The economy is just something that mediates between the ultimate input (Natural Resources) and the ultimate output (Well-being). Obviously this requires a whole shift of the whole economy – a new way to look at things – a radical systemic change.
  7. Making a transition to a sustainable economy requires challenging some of the fundamentals of economics. Without doing this it will be impossible to deliver Environmental Sustainability – Social Justice – Human Well-being. This requires challenging current economic practice and theory – which is difficult - but the current economic crisis has made evident that there are significant flaws in the system that need to be addressed. This is a list of some of the things we do wrong in economics; some of the assumptions we still believe. We’re not saying everything is wrong. Markets might be good for some things (i.e. Chairs, clothes, etc) but not to deliver certain goods (i.e. education, biodiversity etc). It’s important to note that it’s not just nef making this point. There’s an increasing number of economists – decision-makers highlighting these flaws and calling for a review of some fundamentals of current economic practice.
  9. To make the point, our report illustrates the kind of bold transport investment package we believe would achieve better value for taxpayers money. It’s an example of the kind of real alternative that has been missing from the government’s appraisal of HS2 to date: one of similar cost and size that can put the costs and benefits of HS2 in proportion. We suggest dividing the £33 billion across the following areas: £10 billion on upgrading our exiting North-South mainlines – to improve speed and capacity of inter-regional travel while avoiding the need for an ecologically disastrous new line. £10 billion to overhaul regional rail around the country – because improving shorter, commuter links between and within non-London cities would give a much bigger lift to existing employment centres than a sole focus on long-distance travel. £6 billion on improving bus and light rail (e.g. tram) networks around the UK – and introducing smart ticketing systems (like London’s Oyster card) to make low-carbon public transport and simpler, more everyday option for travellers. £2 billion on better biking and walking infrastructure – to improve wellbeing and help make regional cities places that people want to live and businesses want to locate £5.5 billion on rolling out ultra fast ‘to-the-door’ broadband coverage across the UK – boosting business and reducing the demand for unnecessary business travel.
  10. – please remember this.
  11. The second one is a clear and time-defined target for full restoration of EU fish stocks to MSY and beyond.
  12. Now coming back to the main topic today. Summary of our research “Value Slipping through the net” recently published in the Marine Policy journal. Let’s start by defining what we mean by value.
  13. In our research we looked at three sub areas of the North Sea. We looked at 1 species – COD And analysed 2 different fleets: trawlers and gillnets. Our analysis only looked at UK fleet. Same research could – and should – be done in other countries.
  14. We converted all factors (C emissions, discards, employment, etc) in monetary terms in order to obtain a “best value” return / tonne of cod landed; and this is what the result shows.
  15. On 6th February the European Parliament massively voted in favor of the Rodust report. These report includes 2 key articles which refer to the two key conditions to maximize value to society – as previously outlined. First one is about allocating resources to those that deliver best value to society. So, the use and implementation of access criteria could become a reality sooner than expected.
  16. Fish production (supply): EU catch + Aquaculture F. Consumption (demand): Total catch + Aq. + Imp – Exp Self-sufficiency: Supply / Demand
  17. Reviewed the relevant models: EIAA, World Bank, FishRent, Bemtool AER is the main data source – can analyse fleets according to intensities Main input is quota (catch), but user can also change price, exchange rates, biology Main outputs: gross value, profitability, jobs, wages Intermediaries: country share of quota, catchability, days at sea Only a subset of fleets have enough data for analysis (211/658) LIMITS: Data gaps / matching biological and economic data (no MSY est for catch areas) Behavioural change (on board employment decisions) Modelling transition Scenarios: If quota limits were set based on science, what would the economic impacts be? If fish stocks reached Long Term MSY, what would the economic impacts be? Are these economic impacts sensitive to fuel prices or the price of fish? If quota were allocated based on socio-economic factors, what would the economic impacts be?
  18. MSY estimates: There's a bit of a hierarchy of estimates. Some of the source are multi-species estimates so those take precedent as they're seen as more accurate. Some from: -EIAA (the model that BEMEF is expanding on, developed by Uni Copenhagen) working group led by John Casey -Guillen’s paper -ICES working group on multi-species reference points -Froese’s paper -Cardinale’s paper -Marinio’s paper -if no estimate at all then current quota is used   We are looking to replace some with estimates from the Myfish Project which is convening scientists to get agreement on what reasonable MSY estimates are. (I want to get these before launching the model but I haven’t heard back from my contact…)
  19. Queen Scallop - Aequipecten opercularis
  20. - marine envt f&f oil gas agg ports fisheries transport biodiversity & wellbeing, tourism & recreation - GDP -jobs-property rights / Quota / ownership - who owns the seabed - MPAs and impact on economy now and future - regulation : licensing, quotas , impact of austerity on regulators > crisis as a result of failure to regulate the banking sector properly ... Myths and framing - markets ; what do they do well? What dont they do well?
  22. NUMBER OF BRIEFINGS WITHIN EACH… 1 - UK Fisheries Overview 2 - EU TACs and Quota 3 - What are Producer Organisations 3b - UK Quota ownership Overview 4 - Fishing limits and relative stability 5 - Fleet structure and economic performance 6 - UK landings 7 - UK Regional Breakdown 8 - Fishing and UK GDP 9 - Fishing capacity and effort
  23. lemon sole- Microstomus kitt
  24. Re-start the marine conservation debate --- with a focus on employment on coastal communities and what role can the environment play rather than the other way around.