1.
The Bio-Economic Model of
European Fleets (BEMEF)
Griffin Carpenter and Aniol Esteban

2.
Griffin Carpenter
Economics modeler at NEF
griffin.carpenter@neweconomics.org

3.
What is the BEMEF?
• …a tool designed to visualise the economic
impacts from fish stock restoration and
quota re-allocation.
• …for fleets where adequate data is available,
BEMEF calculates current and future
economic outputs including profitability,
wages, and jobs.

4.
Resources – Report with main results
http://www.neweconomics.o
rg/publications/entry/manag
ing-eu-fisheries-in-the-
public-interest

5.
Resources – Online model
www.fisheriesmodel.eu

6.
Resources – Online model

7.
Resources - Model (Excel)

8.
Background
• Reformed Common Fisheries Policy now
in place
– Article 2.2 on MSY
– Article 17 on socio-economics
• Differing economic analyses leading up to
the reform.

9.
Purpose
• Illustrate the potential
• Contribute to greater understanding
• Open up the black box
• Start new conversations

10.
Structure
• Information from the Commission’s Annual
Economic Report on EU fishing fleets
• An extension of the EIAA model (Frost, et al)
• “Backward” model from quota level -> effort
• Uses estimates of future yield (MSY) and
biomass (BMSY)

11.
Limitations
• Data coverage
– 211/603 fleets
– 24,526 vessels
– 73% of landings, 91% of quota
• Static
• Matching biological and fleet information
• Behavioural change
• No Med. and not much small-scale sector

12.
Gains at MSY
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Baseline MSY
Tonnes
Landings and MSY Projection for BEMEF
Lithuania
Belgium
Sweden
Estonia
Latvia
Germany
Spain
Poland
Finland
Portugal
Ireland
Netherlands
France
United Kingdom
Denmark
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Baseline MSY
Million€
Earnings and MSY Forecast for BEMEF
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Baseline MSY
Jobs and MSY Forecast for BEMEF

13.
BEMEF results
If fish stocks were at MSY:
An additional 2.052.639 tonnes / year
Enough to meet the annual fish demand of 89 million
EU citizens.
Baseline MSY

14.
BEMEF results
If stocks were at MSY
Additional revenues of 1565 million Euro/year
Additional profits of 824 million Euros / year
Baseline MSY

15.
Baseline MSY
BEMEF results
If stocks at MSY:
An additional 20.362 to 64.092 new job posts.
Average wage increase of 8.273 Euro/year

16.
Modelling impacts
Profits
More fish
€ € € More revenue Jobs
Wages

17.
Quota allocation
Maximise jobs
(jobs/kg)
Minimise fuel use
(l/kg)
Minimise effort
(KW/kg)
Quota to allocateHistoric
share
Maximise profit
(profit-subsidies/kg)

18.
Trade-offs
4.6
4.0
4.5
8.3
6.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
LT MSY
MillionsoftonnesofCO2e
Net Change in Carbon Emissions from Quota
Allocation Scenarios at MSY
Historic Fuel Effort Jobs Profit
48,303 48,537 48,303 50,435 48,698
58,114
72,716
60,631
160,753
121,821
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Historic Fuel Effort Jobs Profit
Jobs from Quota Allocation at MSY
Fishing
Processing
32,894
27,408
34,322
17,233 18,297
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
€/year
Net Change in Wages from Quota Allocation
Scenarios at MSY
Historic Fuel Effort Jobs Profit

19.
Ongoing development
• Updating data and improving estimates
• More detailed Member State level results
• Capturing non-use benefits, especially at port level
• Looking beyond quota species (i.e. Med and
Inshore)
• Transition period under different scenarios to MSY

20.
Ongoing development
Linking results to the port
level where landings are
reported by gear type and
vessel length (MMO in the
UK)

21.
Policy implications
• TACs set above scientific advice
– 24% above and 7/10 stocks over past 15 years
– Positive trend (37% to 11%)

22.
Excess TAC / pais (2001-2015)

23.
Excess TAC / pais (2001-2015)

24.
Find out more
www.fisheriesmodel.org
www.neweconomics.org
@NEF
Thank you