NCVO Foresight: taking the fear out of change

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A short slideshow explaining how Foresight can help charities and other civil society organsations to spot the storm before it hits, making all the difference between just surviving and really thriving. See more at the National Council for Voluntary Organisations' dedicated Foresight website, www.3s4.org.uk.

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  • Nick Wilson Young, NCVO Foresight Manager, National Council for Voluntary Organisations, 020 7520 2416, Blog: http://www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/NickWilsonYoung , Twitter: @NCVOForesight Get free hints on future trends at www.3s4.org.uk
  • You can’t predict the road ahead, but you can anticipate what’s around the next corner.
  • Foresight is about preparedness, not prediction. It’s not perfect, but the more warning you can give yourself, the more prepared you can be. For threats AND opportunities. And to turn one into the other.
  • Foresight isn’t all about emergencies. It’s a normal part of good planning. It’s used by business, government and large charities all over the world.
  • Stay relevant Improve sustainability Become more risk aware Increase innovation
  • ACCORDING TO NCVO RESEARCH AMONG PEOPLE LIKE YOU, STRATEGIC ANALYSIS IS ONE OF THE TOP 4 NEEDS IN OUR SECTOR, Here’s a little story…
  • 18 years ago I worked on an effort to open communication between Serbs and Croats in a destroyed town cut straight down the middle by a front line. This is the hospital.
  • We were BRILLIANT. With almost no money, local and foreign activists starting from scratch did incredible, ground-breaking work across the front lines, carving out a public space for tolerance actually in the midst of hot war. And even found time for face-painting! Completely crowd-funded using the new internet. See the forthcoming A More Human Channel, based on interviews with fifty fighters, politicians, refugees and activists from the Pakrac Project . http://www.c-r.org/ccts/ccts12/pakrac.htm, or the photos on our Facebook site, Pakrac Volunteer .
  • Then, one nice Summer morning the Croatian army smashed through the front line in a surprise offensive…
  • By breakfast all the Serbs were fleeing for their lives. It was the biggest movement of people in Europe since World War Two.
  • The army did three years of strategic analysis before that day. We’d done a little , and were caught napping. We’d set like jelly around the existing situation, and when it changed we couldn’t adapt quickly enough. That’s an extreme example, but you don’t need me to tell you about all the other organisations caught napping by change:.......
  • Kate Gilmore, 10-year global Amnesty deputy head, now a lead consultant at the Management Centre working on strategic foresight http://www.scenariosforchange.com/?page_id=12 says because AI is a global movement with a slow decision making structure it failed to foresee and adapt to the end of the cold war and other external changes and was therefore unable to act on mass killings in Rwanda and Srebrenica. She says: ‘you need to be higher up the mountain than others (and so have a clearer vision)’ I worked for global Amnesty across the ex-Soviet bloc at the time. Kate’s right.
  • http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/6597/getting-bottom-end-life-counseling-proposals
  • We have many publications available through the NCVO site. We also offer foresight consultancy, in-house training on foresight, foresight away days for stakeholders (SMT, staff, users, trustees…), and foresight coaching to leaders. Nick Wilson Young, NCVO Third Sector Foresight, 020 7520 2416 Blog: http://www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/NickWilsonYoung
  • NCVO Foresight: taking the fear out of change

    1. 1. Strategic Foresight: taking the fear out of change [email_address]
    2. 2. Foresight is…understanding your changing world & so making better decisions
    3. 3. Spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)
    4. 4. Foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating
    5. 5. Preparedness Not prediction
    6. 6. Foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there
    7. 7. it helps avoid surprises
    8. 8. Foresight helps you: stay innovative stay relevant shape your future, not just react
    9. 9. so it goes before planning… decide what you’re about evaluate, learn… do it ! foresight spot options, make choices plan
    10. 10. ...not after planning !
    11. 11. It pays to make time for foresight [or you’ll always be fire-fighting]
    12. 12. some healthy scepticism <ul><li>‘there’s no time for this !’ </li></ul><ul><li>‘either we know what’s coming, or we can’t !’ </li></ul>
    13. 17. we should have seen it coming
    14. 18. but so should they
    15. 19. ‘ It’s not the strongest or most intelligent that survives, it’s the most adaptable’
    16. 20. So, how do you do foresight ?
    17. 21. It’s a three-part process <ul><li>What trends or forces (drivers) </li></ul><ul><li>may affect your organisation </li></ul><ul><li>or its beneficiaries ? </li></ul><ul><li>(for good or ill) </li></ul><ul><li>So what are the implications ? </li></ul><ul><li>Now what to do about it ? </li></ul>
    18. 22. We make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk
    19. 24. Spotting drivers (the What )
    20. 25. eg: multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing (+ stubborn, rising social need)
    21. 26. Ranking drivers HIGH IMPACT LOWER IMPACT UNCERTAIN CERTAIN Plan Develop scenarios Develop tactics and policies Review
    22. 27. Working out driver implications (the So What ) External implications Internal implications Users & their needs Funders & their priorities Relationships & influence Workforce (paid, volunteer) & Trustees The organisation’s work (services & activities) Governance including accountability & evaluation Systems, Skills, Technology (communications, administration, management etc)
    23. 28. How to respond (the Now What ) <ul><li>Improvements </li></ul><ul><li>Innovations </li></ul><ul><li>Improvisations </li></ul>
    24. 29. We can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself www.3s4.org.uk twitter: @NCVOForesight www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/resources nick.wilsonyoung@ncvo-vol.org.uk

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