Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls
Rajeeva L. Karandikar
Director
Chennai Mathematical Institute
rkarandikar@gmail.com...
Opinion polls - about the only time when inference
drawn using data science / statistics / analytics is put
to test- where...
I have been doing opinion poll based predictions for last
16 years and the comparison with actual outcomes
shows the power...
To make predictions based on Opinion polls one needs
to understand the domain and the requirement- namely
to predict seats...
So apart from the fact that here BigData is not
involved (the whole data set would be a few Mega
Bytes), it has all the in...
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NASSCOM Big Data and Analytics Summit 2014 - Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - Rajeeva L. Karandikar, Chennai Mathematical Institute

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Presentation by Rajeeva L. Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute

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NASSCOM Big Data and Analytics Summit 2014 - Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - Rajeeva L. Karandikar, Chennai Mathematical Institute

  1. 1. Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls Rajeeva L. Karandikar Director Chennai Mathematical Institute rkarandikar@gmail.com rlk@cmi.ac.in Rajeeva L. Karandikar Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - 1
  2. 2. Opinion polls - about the only time when inference drawn using data science / statistics / analytics is put to test- where after one makes predictions based on data, and soon afterwards the truth is revealed. Rajeeva L. Karandikar Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - 2
  3. 3. I have been doing opinion poll based predictions for last 16 years and the comparison with actual outcomes shows the power as well as limitations of the technique. It is not The Truth, The Whole Truth and Nothing But The Truth but it also shows that there is more to data science/analytics / statistics than Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Rajeeva L. Karandikar Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - 3
  4. 4. To make predictions based on Opinion polls one needs to understand the domain and the requirement- namely to predict seats nationwidew for major parties. One needs to take into account as to what background data is available and what current data can be reliably collected. One needs a build a mathematical/statistical model to translate all these into seat predictions. Rajeeva L. Karandikar Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - 4
  5. 5. So apart from the fact that here BigData is not involved (the whole data set would be a few Mega Bytes), it has all the ingrediants of typical use of data science techniques. When the data size is huge and it may have unstructured data, we will need to bring in tools and technology to complete our task. Rajeeva L. Karandikar Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls - 5

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