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Next 100 years


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Based on a book by Friedman a snap shot of next 100 years how our world will change. where are the opportunities and what can be expected.

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Next 100 years

  1. 1. Next 100 Years a geo political view Naeem Zafar Twitter: All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 1
  2. 2. George Friedman’s Book All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 2
  3. 3. Future is Hard to Predict1900 1920 1940 1960 1980• London is the • Europe torn apart • Germany not • Germany • US defeated in 7 capital of the after WW, great only emerged but defeated year war world empires gone! conquered FR & • Europe split into • US seems itself• Trade • New powers dominating EU 2, USSR & US in retreat interdependencie emerge US, JP • Communism has competing for • US forms alliance s made war • Imposed peace survived & allies dominance with China to seem impossible treat will ensure with Nazi • US emerged as control surging Germany will not • Britain stands super power, USSR• Appeared that a emerge & alone dominates all • Fate of Europe oceans & 2000 peaceful Europe threaten again seems all but immense nuclear • USSR collapsed will rule the world seized by 3rd arsenal • China is hardly Reich • Chinese seems communist fanatics • NATO advanced to eastern EU All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 3
  4. 4. Future: in a glance• 2010: American golden age begins• 2015: China fragments• 2020: Russian collapse• 2050: World war USA, Japan, Turkey & Poland• 2060: the golden age• 2080: Energy crisis solved: space & solar!• 2100: American power is challenged: Mexico All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 4
  5. 5. Highlights of this Century1. America’s golden age: absolute dominance2. Population decline changes politics3. Use of technology & space All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 5
  6. 6. American Dominance• First country to dominate all 7 oceans in the history of the world – Nothing moves without Americans explicit permission• Immigration policy keeps population robust• Geographical considerations US does not need to win wars, it needs simply to disrupt things so the other side can’t build sufficient strength to challenge it All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 6
  7. 7. American Century• US: 4% of world population, 26% of world GDP• Oil production daily barrels: US 8.3M, Russia 9.7M, Saudi 10.7M• Population density inhabitant per sq. km: – US 31 (34 w/o Alaska); Japan 338, Germany 230, world 49 All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 7
  8. 8. Why America? All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 8
  9. 9. Historical Perspective• 900 AD to 1492 AD – Europe thrived on Silk Route trades• 1492 to 1991 – Naval routes found to Asia when ottomans closed Silk Route – New age of dominance by European naval powers• 1991 - ?? – North American age starts – Started by the Lend-Lease act All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 9
  10. 10. Major Trend: Population Busts• Global population decline• Europe is 728M people today – Expected to decline to 557M by 2050 (based on fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman) • Today the birth rate for Europe is 1.4! – It used to be 4.5 in 1970s, by 2000 dropped to 2.7 • Expected to drop to 2.05 by 2050• Total human population can decline by 2100 All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 10
  11. 11. American Grand Strategy1. Domination of North American by US army [Manifest Destiny]2. Elimination of any threat from any power in western hemisphere [Monroe Doctrine]3. Complete control of maritime approaches by Navy4. Complete domination of world’s oceans to secure US safety & its trading systems5. Prevention of any other nation to challenge US naval power [carrot & the stick] All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 11
  12. 12. China Closes Down by 2020 All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 12
  13. 13. Russia Must Reconstruct Old USSR• 1200  ~200 mi• Belarus aligned with Russia• Independent Ukraine is threat All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 13
  14. 14. Europe• ~1000  70 miles• Russian collapse of 2020 All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 14
  15. 15. The Caucus Region• Russia will assert power over Georgia• US and Turkey will not like this Central Asia • Russia does not like American influence • US Navy cannot reach here All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 15
  16. 16. Expanded Turkish Influence• American strategy is create regional forces to bring stability & not have to fight all wars directly• Stronger Turkey keeps Iran in check & Russians too• Old Ottoman empire emerges All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 16
  17. 17. Our World in 2030• Japanese population will drop to 107M with 55 M out of workforce  expand influence• Strong Japanese navy – strained relationships with US by 2040• Turkey will be encouraged by USA to assert through Navy to curb Russian influence• Vacuum after Russian collapse will expand Turkish power & it helps American agenda to stabilize region & commerce…. Until 2040 when it becomes too strong! All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 17
  18. 18. American Military Prowess• Unchallenged• Technology driven innovation• Allies: Turkey, Poland & Japan to keep world under control• …until 2040the age of UnmannedHypersonic aircraftsMach 10 to 20 All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 18
  19. 19. The Global War of 2050• Space-based weapon will play a huge role• Japan & Turkey will collaborate• US prop Poland to face Turkish influence• Poland will absorb Balkan states aided by US technology All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 19
  20. 20. Space: Next Frontier for Energy• Space-based solar power• Used to supply to troops• Now will power US• Solves energy crisis All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 20
  21. 21. Mexican Challenge• Immigration laws of 2030• Political shift• Split loyalty of citizens to older fault lines• Language, biculturalism• Immigration issues in 2080 2000 All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 21
  22. 22. Geo Political Landscape All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 22
  23. 23. Summary• No one can ‘predict’ the future• Macro trends are visible & hard to argue with• How shall you prepare for this? All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 23
  24. 24. Books by Naeem Zafar www.FiveMountainPress.comStartup Workshop All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 24