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Scenario Planning as an Inclusive Decision-making Tool: Futrell

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This presentation was delivered at NADO's 2018 Annual Training Conference, held in Charlotte, NC on October 13-16. For more information, visit: https://www.nado.org/events/2018-annual-training-conference/

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Scenario Planning as an Inclusive Decision-making Tool: Futrell

  1. 1. Scenario Planning: A tool to navigate future uncertainty with confidence Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP Decision Support Fellow, Consortium for Scenario Planning www.scenarioplanning.io
  2. 2. Learning Objec?ves 1.  What scenario planning is and why it is important 2.  How to apply a step-by-step framework for scenario planning to your work 3.  How prac>>oners have approached public outreach with scenario planning
  3. 3. Agenda 1.  Part 1 •  Overview of what scenario planning is and why it is important •  Introduc>ons •  Step-by-step framework including prac>>oner examples 2.  Part 2 •  “PuFng scenario planning into prac>ce” exercise •  Closing
  4. 4. What is scenario planning? Scenario planning is a structured process to support decision-making that helps urban and rural planners navigate the uncertainty of the future in the short and long term.
  5. 5. Why is scenario planning important? Rural and urban planners commonly face 3 challenges: Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes or uncertain>es Public engagement without communica>on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others 1 2 3
  6. 6. #1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes
  7. 7. #1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes
  8. 8. #1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes
  9. 9. Transparent underlying decision making structure with clear variables Know when an impacPul change occurred, enables periodic “refreshing” Step-by-step framework will help clarify where transparency is lacking Requirement: In order to: Good news:
  10. 10. #2 - Public engagement without communica?on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs
  11. 11. #2 - Public engagement without communica?on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs
  12. 12. Professionals understand concepts well first Incorporated into the “stakeholder and public engagement” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Boil down concepts to an accessible level for the public
  13. 13. #3 - Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others
  14. 14. Organiza>on has worked with staff, stakeholders, and public to clarify quality of life outcomes Incorporated into the “direc>on seFng” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Enable transparency about the outcomes
  15. 15. Introduc?ons
  16. 16. Step-by-Step Framework
  17. 17. Founda?on Building
  18. 18. External forces §  Climate change §  Technology §  Global migra>on §  Demographic & cultural change §  Na>onal economic growth §  Interna>onal compe>>on Internal decisions §  Infrastructure investments §  Regulatory structure §  Land use policies §  Fiscal policies §  Health and educa>on §  Governance Determinants of growth Source: RPA
  19. 19. High certainty §  Many more elderly §  Smaller working age popula>on §  Racial and ethnic diversity §  Less land to develop §  Aging infrastructure §  Rising sea levels Less certainty §  Slightly lower na>onal growth §  New jobs dispropor>onately high skill §  Substan>al increase in working at home & off peak travel §  Preference for walkable neighborhoods will increase §  Other regions will invest strongly in housing and infrastructure §  More frequent and intense storms Assumptions Source: RPA
  20. 20. Direc?on SeVng
  21. 21. Social equity Source: RPA
  22. 22. All scenarios are transit-oriented by design Source: RPA
  23. 23. Response & Ac?on Planning
  24. 24. A Shi^ in emphasis The next Regional Transporta>on Plan (RTP) will have increasing emphasis on strategies other than rapid transit infrastructure. Source: Metrolinx
  25. 25. Stakeholder & Public Engagement
  26. 26. Source: RPA
  27. 27. Reimagine our Region in 2050
  28. 28. Public Engagement
  29. 29. 10 Forums •  Reimagine Our Region for 2050 •  Have we reached peak driving? Planning for future travel in the Chicago region •  Designing the Future: Gen X and Millennials in 2050 •  Development at the Edge: The Future of Regional Urbaniza1on •  Closer to Home: Crea1ng a Balanced Regional Housing Supply by 2050 •  Thriving in a Changing Climate •  Where We’ll Live in 2050 •  Harnessing Technology for Future Mobility •  The Future of Economic Opportunity •  Doing More with Less in 2050
  30. 30. 20 kiosks 60,000+ interactions
  31. 31. Videos, web, online polling, social media #2050BigIdeas
  32. 32. Subhead goes here What’s your top concern about denser, more walkable neighborhoods? A.  I’m not concerned B.  Changes to neighborhood character C.  More traffic and parking hassles D.  More stress on schools E.  Housing costs F.  Other
  33. 33. Discussion
  34. 34. What is the Consor?um? It provides training and peer exchange to support professionals as they get started with scenario planning and take it to more advanced levels. Who can benefit? Urban, regional, and rural planners and managers, as well as others, are welcome. Official partners include: How can I learn more? Become a par>cipant or join the mailing list by visi>ng the website at scenarioplanning.io or contac>ng Janae at jfutrell@lincolninst.edu.

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