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Best Practices to Incorporate Resilience into the CEDS: Schijvens, Venables

This presentation was delivered at NADO's Annual Training Conference, held in Anchorage, Alaska on September 9-12, 2017.

Planning for resilience positions communities and regions for long-term prosperity and success in the face of an uncertain economic and environmental landscape. RDOs across the country are exploring ways to incorporate resilience planning into their CEDS to address a variety of disruptions in their regions. In this session, hear about best practices and useful approaches for infusing resilience into your CEDS to better prepare for, respond to, and recover from both natural and economic shocks.

Cheryal Lee Hills, Executive Director, Region Five Development Commission, Staples, MN
Nathan Ohle, Executive Director, Rural Community Assistance Partnership, Washington, DC
Meilani Schijvens, Economic Development Planner, Southeast Conference, Juneau, AK
Brett Schwartz, Program Manager, NADO Research Foundation, Washington, DC

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Best Practices to Incorporate Resilience into the CEDS: Schijvens, Venables

 strong economies, healthy communities, and a quality environment in Southeast Alaska.
  3. 3. About Southeast Conference 
 • Southeast Conference was incorporated in 1958 • After that success, stayed together to continue to advocate for issues that are key to the southeast region as a whole. • Looks for consensus for the betterment of the region. • Members from nearly every community, chamber of commerce, and economic development organization in the region. • Support the Southeast Conference of Mayors and the Marine Transportation Advisory Board. • Southeast Conference is the federally designated Regional Economic Development District and the State- designated Alaska Regional Development Organization.
  4. 4. About Southeast Alaska 
 • 34 Communities • 1,000+ Islands • 500 Miles • 18,500 shoreline • 10% of AK Economy
  5. 5. Southeast Alaska Land Ownership
 Circle size = Number of Acres 16% OTHER FEDERAL

  6. 6. Other 7% Private Health Care 6% Trade 6% Seafood 10% Visitor Industry 11% Government 35% Construction 6% FinancialActivities5% ProfessionalServices6% Mining4%Social,Info,Timber4% Southeast Alaska Employment Earnings
 44,763 Jobs $2.2 billion
  7. 7. Yakutat Haines Skagway Juneau Gustavus Metlakatla Ketchikan Sitka Angoon Kake Wrangell Petersburg Hoonah Tenakee Hyder Port Alexander Elfin 
 Cove Point Baker Edna Bay Port Protection Whale Pass Klawock Craig Naukati Hydaburg Hollis Thorne Bay Klukwan Pelican Kasaan Coffman Cove 32 YEARS Southeast Alaska Economic History 

  8. 8. 10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000 1959 1991 2007 Changes in Southeast Alaska: 
 1960 to 2007 32 YEARS 16 YEARS 16 Year Recession
  9. 9. 10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000 1959 1991 2007 2015 Changes in Southeast Alaska: 
 1960 to 2015 32 YEARS 16 YEARS 8 YEARS
  10. 10. 1991 2007 2015 Impact the of State Fiscal Crisis 32 YEARS 16 YEARS 8 YEARS ???
  11. 11. PLANNING PROCESS • EDA Driven Process • One year • 27 workshops and strategic planning meetings • 400+ participants • 100s of ideas for economic initiatives
  12. 12. SWOT Analysis 1,300 hand written comments
  13. 13. People & Southeast Alaskan Spirit Region Collaboration Seafood Industry Tourism Sector Beauty & Recreation Opportunities Natural Resources Culture & Heritage 25 50 Strengths Transportation Costs Energy Costs Overreach of Federal Government Cost of Living & Doing Business Our Geography & Isolation Aging or Stagnant Population Lack of Access to Our Lands 25 50 Seafood & Ocean 
 Product Development Tourism Energy Mining Promoting Region Timber Growing Foods/Harvesting Plants Maritime 0 40 Opportunities Federal Regulations Dependence on State Budget Capital Move & Capital Creep Declining/Aging Population Natural Disasters/Extreme Weather Fisheries Declines Climate Change 0 25 50 Threats Weaknesses
  14. 14. Visitor Industry Market Southeast Alaska to Attract More Visitors. Improve Access to Public Lands. Increase Flexibility in Terms of Permit Use. Increase Yacht and Small Cruise Ship Visitations. Improve Communications Infrastructure. Advocate for Adequate Funding to Maintain Existing Recreational Infrastructure. Timber Industry Provide an Adequate, Economic and Dependable Supply of Timber from the Tongass National Forest to Regional Timber Operators. Stabilize the Regional Timber Industry. Work With USFS to Direct Federal Contracts Toward Locally-Owned Businesses. Support Small Scale Manufacturing of Wood Products in Southeast Alaska. Continue Old Growth Harvests Until Young Growth Supply is Adequate. Community-Based Workforce Development. Update Young Growth Inventory. Other Objectives Housing: Support Housing Development. Food Security: Increase Production, Accessibility, and Demand of Local Foods. Communications: Improved Access to Telemedicine in Southeast Alaska. Marketing: Market Southeast Alaska as a Region. Solid Waste: Regional Solid Waste Disposal. Arts: Increase Recognition of Southeast Alaska’s Thriving Arts Economy. Mining: Minerals & Mining Workforce Development. Attract Research Jobs. Research: Attract Science and Research Jobs to Southeast Alaska. Cultural Wellness: Support Development of Activities and Infrastructure That Promote Cultural Wellness. Transportation Minimize Impacts of Budget Cuts to AMHS and Develop Sustainable Operational Model. Road Development. Move Freight to and from Markets More Efficiently. Ensure the Stability of Regional Transportation Services Outside of AMHS. Energy Work with Federal and State Government to Promote Regional Energy Projects. Diesel Displacement. Support Community Efforts to Create Sustainable Power 
 Systems That Provide Affordable/Renewable Energy. Complete Regional Hydrosite Evaluation for Southeast Alaska. Maritime Maritime Industrial Support Maritime Industrial Support Sector Talent Pipeline: Maritime Workforce Development Plan. Increase Access to Capital for the Regional Maritime Industrial Support Sector. Harbor Improvements. Examine Arctic Exploration Opportunities That the Region 
 as a Whole Can Provide. Seafood Industry Mariculture Development. Full Utilization and Ocean Product Development. Increase Energy Efficiency and Reduce Energy Costs. Regional Seafood Processing. Seafood Markets. Sea Otter Utilization and Sustainable Shellfish. Maintain Stable Regulatory Regime. Promote strong economies, healthy communities, and a quality environment in Southeast Alaska. Southeast Alaska 5 Year Plan
  15. 15. Alaska Mariculture Initiative
 Marine Highway Reform Project 
 Market Southeast Alaska to Visitors
 Maritime Workforce Development
 Full Seafood Resource Utilization
 Secure Adequate Timber Supply Diesel Displacement
 7 Priority 
  16. 16. AMHS Reform Project
  17. 17. Priority Objective Promote Regional Energy Projects
  18. 18. Maritime Workforce Development Implementation
  19. 19. Full Resource Utilization & Ocean Product Development
  20. 20. Mariculture Development
  21. 21. Market Southeast Alaska Visitor Opportunities

  22. 22. Priority ObjectiveSecure an Adequate, 
 Economic Timber Supply

  23. 23. Other 7% Private Health Care 6% Trade 6% Seafood 10% Visitor Industry 11% Government 35% Construction 6% FinancialActivities5% ProfessionalServices6% Mining4%Social,Info,Timber4% Southeast Alaska Employment Earnings
 44,763 Jobs $2.2 billion DO W N $29 MI L L I O N -1% DO W N 885 JO B S I N 2016 -2% 
 How are we doing?
  24. 24. Government wages = 35% of all employment State 
 14% Local 
 11% Federal8% Government 13,000 Jobs D O W N 4 50 JO B S I N 2016 -3%
  25. 25. 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 5,300 5,500 2014 2015 2016 2017 4,740 4,940 5,290 5,500 State Government Job Losses loss of -750 (-14%)
  26. 26. 0 000 000 000 000 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2015 2017 Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System 
 and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, 1977-2017 0 7.5 55 2.5 10 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 How we got here Average Daily Volume Average Price per Barrel Oil revenues historically accounted for 90 percent of the state’s unrestricted revenues
  27. 27. Construction Industry 2,030 Jobs D O W N 9 0 JO B S I N 2016 -4% $0 $200 $400 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 $47 $107 $183$215 $385 Capital 
 Appropriations in Southeast in Millions
  28. 28. Seafood Industry 4,365 Jobs DO W N 500 I N 2016 - 12%
  29. 29. Jobs Board Feet Timber Industry 315 Jobs D O W N - 2 % 1983 to 2017
  30. 30. Fishing & Seafood Jobs: -19% Marine Tourism Jobs: +13% US Coast Guard Jobs: +2% Marine Transportation Jobs: -7% Ship Building, Repairs Jobs: +39% Marine Construction Jobs: -45% SOUTHEAST MARITIME: 6,386 Jobs -5%
  31. 31. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Visitor Industry 7,400 Jobs UP 3 50 JO B S + 6%
  32. 32. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 73,812
 74,460 74,255 74,194 73,644 71,664 71,141 70,504 70,219 71,399 71,712 71,546 72,250 72,214 71,853 73,082 73,812 People
Demographics -500 people -0.7% 
 (AK up 2,650 0.4%)
  33. 33. How to incorporate resiliency into the CEDS?
  34. 34. Southeast Alaska Resiliency Mapping
 Weatherizing for the Economic Storm
  35. 35. Economic Resiliency Mapping What Will Southeast Alaskans Do?
  36. 36. Economic Resiliency Mapping Southeast Alaska Resiliency Mapping
 Weatherizing for the Economic Storm
  37. 37. What will you do (or what do you think should be done) to ensure the economic resilience of your business/industry/community in response to the impacts of the State budget situation? 
 (Provide up to 4 responses). Southeast Alaska 
 Resiliency Mapping
 Weatherizing for the 
 Economic Storm
  38. 38.
  39. 39. Economic Resiliency Mapping The survey was taken by more than 200 Southeast Alaska leaders. Just under half of respondents (43%) own or operate a business in the private sector. Respondents from 23 Southeast Alaska communities, representing 24 different sectors, participated in the exercise.
  40. 40. How concerned are you? What will Southeast Alaskans Do? Region Community Industry Business 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 23% 24% 38% 43% 39% 35% 41% 41% Significantly concerned Maximum concern Rate your level of concern about how the State budget crisis will impact your: 
 79% 59% 62% 84%
  41. 41. Economic Resiliency Mapping #1 Response: Reduce business costs 
 (private sector only)Cut Costs Tighten the belt - look for areas to cut. Think lean. Review every expense category. Reduce operating costs. Become more efficient. Repair vs. buy new. Employee Reductions or Hiring Freeze We are preparing to drop all full-time employees to 32 hours per week, as well as lay off 20% of employees. Decrease staffing to minimum levels. Hire freeze. Hire part time only, no full time. May need to lay off employees. Delay Investments Will cut back on planned expansion. Limit capital improvements and expansion in my business for now. Delay spending. Put off all possible purchases. Reevaluate Business Operations We are evaluating programs and implementing efficiencies. Streamlining processes. Re-evaluate business plan and growth goals. Minimizing delays and paperwork. Strengthen Core Functions, Reduce Services We are closing down operations that don't generate adequate revenue. Strengthening core departments. Spend less money on things that aren't core to the mission of my company. Keep pushing to keep customers happy. Financial Savings Hunker down and build savings to survive looming recession. We are conserving financial resources in anticipation of additional cuts to funding. I assume my taxes will go up so I will plan to save money for that purpose.
  42. 42. Economic Resiliency Mapping Second Top Response: Increase economic development & planning Economic Planning and Analysis Don't panic, plan. Just because the State can not figure out how to plan, it does not prevent us from planning for the coming changes. This problem needs to be analyzed with a long-term view in mind. Step up the economic development support to the local organizations. Strategic planning to ensure sustainability. Support economic development initiatives locally, regionally and statewide. We need to focus on economic development. Work on Southeast Alaska economic plan. Collaborate Co-location with similar or compatible industry. Sharing resources with other entities. Greater collaboration and search for efficiencies. More cooperation for collaboration from organizations on programs. Work with local groups like Chamber and Southeast Conference to come up with ideas to work together. Work with other entities in town so projects will continue and costs are shared. Support Local Businesses Support local businesses whenever possible. Encourage private sector development while public sector is depressed. Invest in self-sufficient businesses. Support community efforts to grow business. We need to grow our economy by supporting local employers and businesses in our community!
  43. 43. Economic Resiliency Mapping Third Top Response: 
 Reduce government spending & services Budget Cuts Become more proactive in reigning in the growth of government and governmental regulation. Cut state spending across the board. Responsible budget cuts. Spend less in the community. Reduce Services Limit government services in order to maintain financial sustainability. Community will cut back on services to residents. Reduce state transportation subsidy and services. Be Frugal Be Frugal. Purchase at the lowest price for items and supplies - even if it means we aren't buying local (which we have always tried to do in the past). The borough needs to consider ways to streamline the services the local government provides: outsource more, sell nonessential facilities, shore up support for critical services, and prioritize the other services. Tighten our belts. Reduce Staff, Delay Infrastructure Investments, Reduce Debt The administration should consider reducing the full-time work schedule to 37.5 per week. Put a hold on new infrastructure projects that are not a priority.
  44. 44. Economic Resiliency Mapping Fourth Top Response: 
 Increase Taxes Income Tax Oil Tax Change Industry Tax Property Tax Sales Tax 0 5 10 15 20 25 Tax Increase Needed Income Tax Urge all to support a statewide income tax. The state needs to generate revenue through taxation. Require income tax a priority in the state revenue equation and contingent upon utilizing any portion of the Alaska Permanent Fund. I believe the State needs to implement tax increases such as an income tax to generate sufficient revenue without cutting state services significantly. A personal income tax should be considered. Oil Tax Change Increase oil company taxes and cut unnecessary government spending. Require oil and gas taxation concurrent with any taxes from Alaskan contribution to the state revenue equation and utilize the Alaska Permanent Fund. Review oil contracts. The state needs to responsibly manage its oil industry and stop giving companies huge tax breaks. Fairly tax the legacy oil industry but don’t drive them out. Industry Taxes Small increases to industry taxes - Alaska tax rates are among the lowest in U.S. Seek new revenue streams (taxes) with an emphasis on trying to generate revenue from outside the community. Other Taxes
  45. 45. Economic Resiliency Mapping 5. Maintain Ferry Services Continue requesting adequate ferry service for our remote community. 6. Increased Communication with Government Officials Support legislators as they make tough decisions on how to balance the budget. 7. Restructure PFD to meet fiscal needs Restructure the PFD to pay for critical services, like education. Legislator need to look at all proposed plans to use the permanent fund earnings to bridge the fiscal gap. 8. Diversify Economy State should look to revenue sources outside oil and gas. Focus economic development efforts on non- governmental activities that diversify the local economy while providing the firm fiscal foundation the community needs to feel secure. 9. Make Region More Attractive Keep attracting outside investment to create jobs and build responsible projects. 10. Natural Resource Development Strengthen resource development opportunities. 11. Focus on Tourism Increase visitor attendance and understanding of our unique offerings. 12. Invest in Education At a minimum, the state needs to remain committed to educating its youth. 13. Build Roads Connect more communities via roads if possible. 14. Increase Non-Federal Land Holdings Move more land to private ownership.
  46. 46. Annual Business Confidence “What is the economic outlook for your business or industry over the next year 
 (compared to the previous year)?” Worse 14% Same 51% Much Better 5% Better 27% 62% 32%
  47. 47. Annual Private Investment Survey Energy Seafood, Commercial Fishing Mining Visitor or Tourism Industry Health Care (includes senior services) Maritime Industrial Food/Beverage Industry Finance/Accounting/Insurance/Real Estate/Legal Timber and Forest products industry Other Non profit Tribal Government Retail / Wholesale Trade Professional & Business Services / Consultant Alaska Native entity Mariculture Construction / Architecture / Engineering Transportation (non tourism) Arts Communications / Information Technology Other 0% 1000000000% 2000000000% 3000000000% 4000000000% $770,000 $40,000 $65,000 $75,000 $102,500 $300,000 $300,000 $390,000 $1,177,500 $3,000,000 $3,002,500 $3,042,500 $3,320,000 $3,810,000 $4,000,000 $9,025,000 $13,405,000 $25,302,500 $33,847,500 $37,800,000
  48. 48. Annual Business Confidence Skagway Haines Ketchikan 0% 25% 50% 75% Better Much Better Sitka Prince of Wales Juneau 0% 25% 50% 75% Worse Much Worse Financial Activities/
 Real Estate Visitor Industry Professional Services Mining 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Better Much Better Timber Construction/Architecture
 Engineering Arts Retail/Wholsale 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Worse Much Worse What is the economic outlook for your business or industry?
 By Industry By Community