EXPLORING MULTIPLE ENERGY FUTURES Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP

1. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 1 2 0 1 0 7th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON FUELS AND LUBRICANTS Theme: Advances in Fuels and Lubricants March 9-12, 2010 India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, India Organised by Exploring Multiple Energy Futures – Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP Navneet Bhushan#, Karthikeyan Iyer and Ashank Reddy # Email: navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com Crafitti Consulting Private Limited, Bangalore http://www.crafitti.com

2. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r ABSTRACT Despite many technological advances, human race has continued to rely on fossil fuels for its expanding energy consumption, thus depleting these precious resources at much faster rates than they are replenished. There is a need to describe, imagine and explore possible energy futures that we are facing in next 20 years or so. This paper use a new integrated approach which combines scenario planning and studies of patent trends in specific domains and combine them with the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). This integrated approach results in much more comprehensive and robust scenarios. The resulting scenarios are explored to determine new possibilities for our energy needs. The scope of research into energy efficient mechanisms (both present and future) is then prioritized in each scenario. This is carried out using a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The comprehensive multi- dimensional and multi-perspective (MDMP) methodology proposed in this paper using well-established scientific methods results in exploration of multiple energy futures thus creating more robust solution directions. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 2

3. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Multi Dimensional Multi Perspective (MDMP) Methodology to Explore the Future STEP 1 Write MULTIPLE FUTURE SCENARIOS STEP 2 EXPLORE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (PATENTS) – EXTRAPOLATE IF POSSIBLE STEP 3 IMAGINE And FORECAST FUTURE POSSIBILITIES (Thought Experiments, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ)) STEP 4 PLAY OUT PATENTS TRENDS and TRIZ POSSIBILITIES in Various SCENARIOS and EVALUATE USING Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 3

4. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r ENERGY SCEANRIOS – 3 SCENARIO PLANNING STUDIES Two SHELL ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2050 • SCRAMBLE VS BLUEPRINTS – In a Polarized Reactive World • Step wise inadequate transition from coal to biofuels to renewables (wind, solar) • Shift towards bio-fuels and the demand for fossil-derived fuels decelerates. – In a Collaborative Proactive World • Incentivizing early stage technologies • Emergence of renewable driven electric transport and demand for both fossil and bio-fuels start reducing March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 4 Four WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL (WEC) SCENARIOS Three WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM – INDIA AND THE WORLD SCENARIOS 2025 Bollyworld Scenario, India follows the path of a make-believe world characterized by typical bollywood movie. Superficial Growth! The Pahale Bharat (“Putting India First”) Scenario Idealized transformational scenario requires a movement where all rise above the petty local issues. Atakta Bharat (“India Getting Stuck”) Scenario, Indian government fails to take action to instigate reforms. This scenario paints a very bleak future for India.

5. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Four Future Scenarios – ENERGY OF INDIA Perspective March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 5 SCENARIO Shell Scenarios WEC Study WEF Study Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE) Blueprints LION Pahale Bharat Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME) Scramble GIRAFFE Atakata Bharat Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE) Scramble LEOPARD Atakata Bharat Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME) Blueprints ELEPHANT Pahale Bharat

6. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE) This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from Shell scenario, elements of LION scenario from WEC scenarios and elements of Pahale Bharath from WEF scenario study. The world wakes up to the energy challenge with the associated environment consequences and through an unprecedented level of inter- government cooperation combined with informal and formal social networks across boundaries join hands to create a holistic response to these challenges. The global sharing and collaboration designed under this scenario percolates down to individual countries and in fact Indians wakes up to these needs and come up to put “India first” to eliminate and minimize the individualistic issues and conflicts. The world cooperates in technology, science and commerce in an unprecedented manner. The ideals of “One world Joint Response” leads to improving the energy security of the whole world as the waste of resources is minimized everywhere. The joint technology development in the renewable resources openly embraces collaboration across all boundaries. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 6

7. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME) This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements of Giraffe scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat, wherein neither the government is connected with the world nor does it facilitate inclusive growth for the people of India. In the SAME scenario, the world nations continue to view each other with suspicion which leads to reduction in the pace of globalization and collaboration. There is an increase in entrepreneurship, new products and technologies. India, however, continues to remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with the new development. This leads to unprecedented increase in frustration in the form of young and unemployed population. The increase in violence on petty issues continues to plague the nation. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 7

8. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE) This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements of Leopard scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat. In the SORE scenario, the world nations look at their own interests only. The anti- globalization sentiments increase with the associated increase in the conflicts and hoarding of energy resources. With extremely individualistic and short term focus the voices of reason and rationality are trampled by the egos of nations. India continues to remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with the new development. The world finds itself on the brink of energy and environment crises with a very strong possibility of First World War of the millennium. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 8

9. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME) This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from the Shell Study with elements of Elephant scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of Pahale Bharat. In the HOME scenario, the world nations are organized into 4-5 different poles. It has become a multi-polar world looking at the interests of only their own group. These poles or group of nations, although connected with each other through trade and other links, do not interfere in each other’s businesses and follow the principles of peaceful co-existence. Within their own pole, they organize themselves as hierarchies based on the energy surplus available to them. India assumes a position of strength as being at the helm of one of the poles in the pentapolar world of 2050. With innovative strategies for inclusive growth, India takes pragmatic initiatives to join hands with many like-minded countries in the penta-polar world. The multiple poles work towards enhancing their own energy security, however, they come together to resolve conflicts and contradictions related to environment in a more or less cohesive manner. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 9

11. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r PATENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 #ofInternationalApps AlternateEnergy Patent Apps Trends solar power (materials or cells and modules) solar power (systems) Wind Power Wave and Tidal Hyrogen Production Hydrogen Storage Fuelcells Carbon capture and Storage

12. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Japanese patent application number JP 2008101598 suggests the addition of water to petroleum fuel to increase fuel economy. Water Petrol Increased Fuel Economy + Some Interesting Patents JP 2008127578 gives a lubricating oil composition that can decrease the amount of fuel consumption in an internal combustion engine.

13. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r March 15, 2010 13© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. Patent application number CN 101016488/ KR20040104318 describes a methanol reformulated fuel alternative to gasoline. Some Interesting Patents US2008047290 provides a method and an apparatus to stop and overcome the known shortage of the fresh water through its obtaining by freezing-out from the atmospheric air, even in the most arid, but sunny, areas of the Earth, as well as to substitute the organic and nuclear fuels by the hydrogen-fuel obtained, by decomposition of the fresh water, as the materialized energy of the concentrated and accumulated Sun-heat and of the accumulated night cosmic cold.

14. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r March 15, 2010 14© Crafitti ConsultingPrivate Ltd. US2009288584 (A1) provides a method to convert solid combustible waste materials highly efficient fuel by subjecting such materials to size reduction in suitable size-reducing equipment. The last piece of the equipment is a mill which pulverizes the waste materials into fine particles having a high surface to mass ratio and forming a highly efficient fuel when these particles are directly injected into a combustion reactor operating at high temperature. Some Interesting Patents WO 2009101647(A1) describes a procedure to produce bio-fuels of natural origin from organic wastes Organic Wastes Bio-Fuels

15. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Two Clear Strategies from Patent Filing Trends • The analysis of patent documents indicate a two-pronged approach is being followed which we name – – (a) The Use it Well approach (the technology that could use the available oil, coal or gas in the most efficient way possible) and – (b) Make the Move approach, a futuristic approach of moving into alternate sources of energy. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 15

17. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r TRIZ – Inventive Problem Solving by Altshuller Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch• 1946 Patent Officer in Russian Navy • Discovered patterns in patents, published paper. Sent to Gulag • 1954 released, analysed 2,500,000 patents • Identified what makes a successful patent • 1956-1985 TRIZ formulated • Same Problems and Solutions appear repeatedly in different industries (Myth: My field is Unique ) • There are a series of recognizable evolution paths for all technical systems (Myth: Evolution is Completely Random) • Innovative solutions used theories outside their own area/industry (Myth: Innovation happens through Deeper Knowledge) • The most powerful solutions uncover and eliminate contradictions (Myth: Optimization is the Focus) TRIZ itself does not solve problems. Problems are solved by people. TRIZ teaches how to solve problems.

18. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 18 TRIZ: Laws of Evolution 1. Law of Increasing Degree of Ideality - Increasing Ratio -> Benefits/Harm (cost) 2. Law of Non-uniform evolution of subsystems -> Leads to System Conflicts 3. Law of Transition to a higher Level system -> from simple to more complex 4. Law of Increasing dynamism (flexibility) -> More adaptable to change 5. Law of Transition to micro-level -> Increasing fragmentation 6. Law of Completeness -> Gradual Elimination of Human Component 7. Law of Shortening of Energy Flow Path -> Reduction in Energy/Info transformation stages 8. Law of Increasing controllability -> Evolution of controlled interactions of system elements 9. Law of Harmonization of rhythms -> Synchronization of natural frequencies of elements

19. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Future of Energy using TRIZ Laws of System Evolution

20. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e rUse of easily available perishing energy sources (fossil fuels – natural gas, oil) Use of widely available perishing energy sources (coal) Use of widely available but slowly replenishing energy sources (bio- fuel) Minimal energy wastage (minimum transportation of energy, minimum emissions) Complete recapture and use of energy waste (heat) and emissions Use of free, clean energy sources (non- polluting renewable energy - wind, solar) IFR - Self-sustaining, self-cleaning energy (humans and machines self sustain – perpetual machines) Working backwards from Ideal Final Result

21. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher entropy energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil-fuels to bio- fuel and then to geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy. Collaborative science and technology helps multiple domains like material science, nanotechnology, biotechnology etc. to come together and create the next level of biological energy systems that actively generate and store energy. LiveEnergy Transition to higher level systems Smart Materials Biotech NanotechIncreasing number and diversity of systems, convolving into materials with built-in functional zones Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store energy captured from sunlight similar to photosynthesis in plants).

22. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel, natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations. Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy sources, albeit with only above average efficiencies, initially. MultiEnergy Increasing dynamism Transition to active adapting, self adapting, forward sensing systems All cars come pre- equipped with variety of energy crunchers - solar panels, batteries, diesel engines, batteries, wind sails etc.

23. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent rather than liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand measured in liters rather than barrels. Systems are also able to capture in the minutest quantities, store and re-utilize energy wasted during transmission and use. DropEnergy Transition to micro- level Crystal sponge holds three times more hydrogen than any known substance Crystal Lattice to molecules to atom- ions to elementary particles Law of completeness Dislodging of human involvement Roads are designed with structured bumps – car suspension systems are able to store and re-use the energy generated.

24. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Systems become increasingly segmented and modular. Standardization helps iron out inefficiencies in energy storage, transmission and use. New plug and play automobiles are widely used. Users can assemble their own cycles, motorbikes and cars, or convert one to another with easy toolkits. ModularEnergy Increasing dynamism Increasing controllability Increasing flexibility of physical structures – rigid system to system with one or more flexing points to elastomeric systems Moving towards completely controlled fields – gravity to electromechanical A modular family car

25. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r EnergyNets Bio-Fuel Food Competition for landNon-uniform evolution of sub-systems Harmonization of rhythms Integrated supply chains for food and bio-fuel Shortening of Energy Flow Path From multiple systems to synchronized systems – function distribution Lesser number of energy transformation stages Lowest energy transmission loss by enabling fuel to energy conversion at last mile With the advent of bio-fuels, food and fuel supply chains are integrated. The resulting supply chain efficiencies salvage the escalating global standoff between food crops and fuel crops. Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel. All households have simple thermal oil convertors.

26. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r EnergyNets The Global Energy Network

27. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 27 TRIZ Laws of Evolution Strategy  Non-uniform evolution of sub-systems  Harmonization of rhythms  Shortening of energy flow path Energy Nets With the advent of bio -fuels, food and fuel supply chains are integrated. The resulting supply chain efficiencies salvage the escalating global standoff between food crops and fuel crops. Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel. All households have simple thermal oil convertors.  Transition to higher level system  Law of system completeness Live Energy Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher entropy energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil -fuels to bio-fuel and then to geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy. Systems are also able to store and re-utilize energy wasted during transmission and use. Collaborative science and technology helps multiple domains like material science, nanotechnology, biotechnology et c. to come together and create the next level of biological energy systems that actively generate and store energy. Roads are designed with structured bumps – car suspension systems are able to store and re - use the energy generated. Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store energy captured from sunlight similar to photosynthesis in plants.  Increasing dynamism  Harmonization of rhythms  Shortening of energy flow path Multi-Energy Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel, natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations. Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy sources, albeit with only above a verage efficiencies, initially. All cars come pre- equipped with variety of energy crunchers - solar panels, batteries, diesel engines, batteries, wind sails etc.  Transition to micro-level Drop Energy Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent rather than liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand measured in liters rather than barrels.  Increasing dynamism  Increasing Controllability Modular Energy Systems become increasingly segmented and modular. Standardization helps iron out inefficiencies in energy storage, transmission and use. New plug and play automobiles are widely used. Users can assemble their own cycles, motorbikes and cars, or convert one to another with easy toolkits.

29. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Analytic Hierarchy Process is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 29 SCENARIOS Strategy Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3 Geo Mean Relative Value of Strategy Energy Nets 0.453 0.524 0.476 0.484 0.485 Live Energy 0.037 0.050 0.054 0.046 0.046 Multi-Energy 0.234 0.191 0.197 0.207 0.207 Drop Energy 0.061 0.051 0.056 0.056 0.056 Modular Energy 0.215 0.185 0.216 0.204 0.205 Energy Nets 0.055 0.039 0.053 0.048 0.051 Live Energy 0.087 0.346 0.202 0.183 0.193 Multi-Energy 0.196 0.126 0.130 0.148 0.156 Drop Energy 0.296 0.290 0.196 0.256 0.270 Modular Energy 0.367 0.199 0.419 0.312 0.330 Energy Nets 0.035 0.038 0.041 0.038 0.043 Live Energy 0.275 0.136 0.155 0.180 0.203 Multi-Energy 0.176 0.345 0.148 0.208 0.235 Drop Energy 0.444 0.136 0.229 0.240 0.272 Modular Energy 0.070 0.345 0.427 0.218 0.247 Energy Nets 0.454 0.472 0.574 0.497 0.504 Live Energy 0.033 0.049 0.046 0.042 0.043 Multi-Energy 0.222 0.146 0.150 0.169 0.171 Drop Energy 0.070 0.135 0.080 0.091 0.092 Modular Energy 0.222 0.197 0.150 0.187 0.190 Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE) Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME) Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE) Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME)

30. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Which Energy Strategy will work in Which Scenario more …. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 30 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 Energy Nets Live Energy Multi-EnergyDrop Energy Modular Energy Holistic OrganizedSystemic Empowerment (HOSE) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 EnergyNets Live Energy Multi-EnergyDropEnergy Modular Energy Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 Energy Nets Live Energy Multi-EnergyDrop Energy Modular Energy Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 Energy Nets Live Energy Multi-EnergyDrop Energy Modular Energy Holistic OrganizedModular Engagement (HOME)

31. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r What should be the LONG TERM STRATEGY ….. It is evident that in HOSE and HOME Scenarios, the Energy Nets strategy emerges as the top priority with almost 50% relative value. However, in the SAME and SORE scenarios, Energy Net strategy is of least value. In the SAME scenario Modular Energy and Drop Energy strategies become more important while in the SORE Modular, Drop, Multi and Live energy have very close relative values. Once can choose a relative path based on the possibility of future. However, given the need of global cooperation, creating an integrated global collaborative energy net seemsto be the most important long term strategy. March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 31

32. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r CONCLUSIONS • An integrated methodology combining Scenario planning, Patent trends, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This is used as a test case in scenarios for possible futures of energy in the global context. • One can see the efficacy of the methodology as the results explore multiple inputs and contexts to generate newer and different possibilities yet integrating in the overall context. • We intend to develop and apply this methodology in further detailed explorations of future energy needs of the world. • Lastly, we look forward to active collaborators in our explorations of future as we believe the methodology reinforced with multiple domain experts from wide ranging organizations will lead to a more Energized Future – we believe this is really the need of the hour! March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 32

33. Confidential craftinginnovationtogether c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r Thank You Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd |www.crafitti.com (info@crafitti.com) navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.