What's the Deal? Labor and Employee Relations in the Trump Era

1. What’s The Deal? Labor and Employee Relations in the Trump Era SHRM Legislative and Legal Conference | March 2017 Phillip B. Wilson, Labor Relations Institute, Inc. Michael VanDervort, CUE Inc.

2. LOW ER/LR RISK AND LOW PR RISK Should I Sleep at Night? Now that the NLRB, Congress and DOL are in Republican control, how concerned should I be about labor issues? Head to Starbucks. Grab a coffee. Take good notes. Grab a flask. LOW ER/LR RISK OR LOW PR RISK MED ER/LR RISK AND MED PR RISK HIGH ER/LR RISK OR HIGH PR RISK HIGH ER/LR RISK AND HIGH PR RISK ER = Employee Relations PR = Public Relations LR = Labor Relations

3. Union Membership At All-Time Low • Total membership fell from 11.1% in 2015 to 10.7% in 2016, and private-sector membership fell from 6.7% to 6.4% • Many union members do not align with their union’s political bent

4. • Trump flipped “Blue Wall” States PA, OH, WI, MI • Exit polls: Trump won 43% of union households (Clinton only 51%) • Trump 4% better than Romney 2012 • Clinton 9% worse than Obama 2012 Kansas Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Iowa Texas Arkansas Lousiana Alabama Tennessee S. Carolina N. Carolina Virginia Missouri Indiana Ohio Kentucky Pennsylvania 40% Trump 47.6 47.3 43% Trump 47.9 46.9 43% Trump* 48.8 47.6 54% Trump 52.1 43.5 Source: CNN Exit polls *NOTE: National average - No exit poll data on union households in PA ©2017 Labor Relations Institute, LRIonline.com How Union Members Elected Trump

5. Good News For Business Community?

6. Is the Glass Half- Full… • NLRB and DOL will roll back Obama era regulations, decisions • Administration will "dismantle" bureaucracy, reduce size and scope of DOL, NLRB • Traditional left supporters (labor unions, academics) overwhelmed by populism • Right to work, Janus or Rauner, etc. deal structural death blows to unions Or Half-Empty? • Administration so disorganized, crisis prone – no focus on NLRB, DOL • Urge to deal with unions on infrastructure, immigration, trade, creates pressure to "play nice" • Backlash against administration builds support for unions, academics (left-wing populism) • Mid-term elections dismantle Trump "coalition" – stops any progress

7. Does Trump Deserve Credit For Saving Jobs? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/economy/trump-jobs.html?ref=business

8. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/economy/trump-jobs.html?ref=business Does Trump Deserve Credit For Saving Jobs?

9. • Silicon Valley companies support suit against travel ban (or pause) • Immigration Policy Raises Concerns • ACA Repeal or Replace Uncertainty Trump’s early moves trigger business backlash

10. Labor's Dilemma… How Close to Get to Trump?

11. What worries me? How NOT worried this guy is. • Watch this video http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/03/01/afl-cio-president- trumka-unions-will-help-trump-rewrite-rules-economy.html

12. What the heck is populism? • Political doctrine based on power of “common people” versus political and economic “elites” • Can be right, left or centrist (Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Occupy Wall Street) • Typically democratic (US Revolution, French Revolution, Joseph McCarthy) • Sometimes Authoritarian, Facist, or Socialist (Hugo Chavez, Xi Jinping)

13. 1. Think big 2. Maximize the options 3. Use your leverage 4. Get the word out 5. Fight back 6. Deliver the goods 7. Contain costs, protect downside 8. Have Fun https://qz.com/894419/trumps-border-wall-is-a- negotiating-tactic-straight-out-of-his-book-the-art-of-the- deal/ “I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal Negotiator In Chief President Trump Already Taught Us How He'll Do Deals

14. ❤ Businesses 🚫 Unions (AFSCME, SEIU, NEA) 🚫 Environmentalists Rally Point for Left (anti-Populist) Anti-Regulation Trump 1 🚫 Most Businesses 🚫 Most Unions 🚫 World Community 🚫 Immigrants ❤ Trump’s Base “Build a Wall” Trump ❤ Manufacturers 🚫 Retailers/Consumers ❤ Unions Big PR Risks Trade Deal Trump 2 ❤ Construction/Energy Co’s ❤ Construction Unions 🚫 Service Unions 🚫 Environmentalists 🚫 Deficit Hawks Infrastructure Trump 4 Which Trump(s) Will We Get? 3

15. What labor and employment policy changes should I expect under Trump?

16. Puzder Takedown • Unions targeted from the start • Fast food billionaire (not very populist) • Anti-regulation (minimum wage, overtime) • Horrible vetting • Gave left (especially Elizabeth Warren) easy target

17. Puzder: Down in Flames. Here's How Acosta Stacks Up. • The Anti-Puzder • Hearing March 15 • First Hispanic on Trump’s Cabinet • Unions support him • Sided with unions 67% of time sided when at NLRB • Also worked at DOJ • May be more accepting of workplace regulation

18. DOL Changes to expect • Blacklisting = DOA • Persuader rule – dead • Overtime rule – probably dead • Decreased funding for enforcement, outreach • Likely end of “strategic enforcement” • Minimum wage? Paid leave? Maybe…

19. The NLRB Miscimarra – Term Expires December 17, 2017 McFerrin – Term Expires December 16, 2019 Pearce – Term Expires August 27, 2018 Griffin (GC) – Term Expires November 4, 2017

20. Potential nominees for 2 open seats Doug Seaton Seaton, Peters, Revnew Marvin Kaplan OSHA Bill Emanuel Littler

21. • Quickie Election Rule • Specialty Healthcare (Community of Interest Standard) • Joint Employer • Email • Employee Handbooks • Privacy – Confidentiality • Class Action Waiver • Graduate Assistant, College Student Athlete Jurisdiction • Management Rights • Successor Employer • Definition of Supervisor • Replacement Workers • Dues Obligation Post-Contract Key Issues New NLRB Will Target

22. Next WE Apex 2023 Pendulum Last ME Apex 1983 Next ME Apex 2063 I’m OK, You’re Not OK (Witch Hunt) I’m OK, You’re OK (Rainbows and Unicorns) I’m Not OK, You’re not OK (We’re Both Broken) I’m Not OK, You’re OK (Hero Worship)

23. Assessing your risk profile LOWER RISK • Lower external union vulnerability (geography, industry, competitors) • Lower internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.) • Lower risk of PR pressure (privately held, low public profile, customers don't care, community doesn’t care) Your risk profile is determined by your internal and external vulnerability to union activity AND your overall sensitivity to negative PR events. MEDIUM RISK • Higher risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors); OR • Higher internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.); AND • Lower risk of PR pressure (privately held, low public profile, customers don't care, community doesn’t care) MEDIUM RISK • Lower risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors) • Lower internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.) • Higher risk of PR pressure (publicly held, high public profile, customers care, community cares) HIGHER RISK • Higher risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors); AND • Higher internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.); AND • Higher risk of PR pressure (publicly held, high public profile, customers care, community cares)Labor Employment Risk PR Risk Lower Higher HigherLower

24. Facing uncertainty, constant change, disengagement, and turnover? Approachable leaders positively impact each of these challenges. Connection 1 Are your first level leaders comfortable dealing with disruptions at work? These are moments that make or break organizations and relationships. Disruption 2 Action plan? Focus “Left of Boom” None of us is smarter that all of us. Network with others at SHRM, CUE, and other industry groups to keep up with what’s next. Network 3

25. “Left of Boom” Strategies Integrated Strategies Employer of Choice Brand & Reputation Management Union Campaign Ready Corporate Campaign Ready Worker Center Specific

26. Daily Actions Matter Work HR and managers can (and should) do daily! • Say Hello, Please and Thank You • Be approachable • Resolve Problems Early (Open Door) • Active safety programs • Active employee recognition • Employee feedback process and action on feedback • Supervisory training and monitoring • Active management communications process in place • Employee engagement process • Audit for consistent policy administration and trust in supervision 101

27. Michael VanDervort Executive Director CUE Inc. – an organization for positive employee relations 863-370-3560 Mvandervort@cueinc.com Website: CUEinc.com Twitter: @MikeVanDervort LinkedIn: LinkedIn.com/in/michaelvandervort Phillip Wilson President Labor Relations Institute Founder Approachable Leadership 800-888-9115 pbwilson@LRIonline.com Websites: LRIonline.com ApproachableLeadership.com Twitter: @ApproachableLDR LinkedIn: Linkedin.com/in/pbwilson Keep in Touch!