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  1. 1. The Future Isn't a Straight Line from the Past - Challenge and Change and the Future of Learning Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
  2. 2. This Presentation A Brief History of the Future – 12 Pieces of the Jigsaw 1 Implications for Higher Education 2 The Challenge for Polytechnics 3
  3. 3. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra “The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan Quayle “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..” Niels Bohr
  4. 4. Demographics  As baby boomers retire the dependency ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2030  Some countries below population replacement – especially Japan  Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia, China  Immigration essential in many countries – Canada needs to double its immigration to “stay the same”
  5. 5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens  424 major cities in the world will generate 75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in Asia  New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) – almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa  50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are headquartered in Asia – more to come
  6. 6. Globalization  MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals registered for one of 9,500 MOOCs from 800+ universities and colleges in 2017  Supply chains are global – look at the BMW Mini. 300 options for exterior trim - 15,000,000,000,000,000 possible combinations.  Parts delivered to Oxford Just in Time 0 – enough for 1 shift. 3,600 parts in a standard Mini (up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S) – from 47 countries.
  7. 7. Planet in Peril  9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050  If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to supply this population  Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme weather events  Environmental challenges are real and urgent
  8. 8. Rapid Advances in Technologies  Artificial Intelligence  3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing  Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing  Robotics  Blockchain  Human Implants – Cognitive Implants  Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science
  9. 9. Technology Will Impact Work..  30-40% of all current work will be impacted by one or more of these technologies  Some jobs will disappear, new jobs will emerge  Some workers with low level cognitive skills will not find work  We will all have to dance with robots and share our intelligence with machines
  10. 10. The New Economy is the Gig Economy  20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is approaching 40%  Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal employment in Canada  The UK has zero hours contracts…  Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to pursue full time work – looking for work : life balance
  11. 11. New Forms of Organizations  Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models than Proctor and Gamble  Global businesses are:  Aggregators and brokers  Networked supply chains  Using gig labour and smart technologies  Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find them  Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..
  12. 12. Austerity and Recession  US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada) and two emerging markets (China and India) have a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.  Total debt from all sources (government, corporate, personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.  In the US, to deliver current levels of public services (everything from education to health care to pensions) to the projected population in 2030, taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940 billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170 billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another US$90 billion. “We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”
  13. 13. Growing Inequality  Canada is experiencing growing inequality – our top 100 CEO’s earn the average Canadian wage ($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on January 3—the first working day of the year.  Fewer than 90 families in Canada hold roughly as much wealth as everyone living in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island collectively owns.  1 in 7 Canadian residents live in poverty and 1.3 million children live in poverty.
  14. 14. Identity and Meaning  1 in 5 in the US report being lonely  Mental health issues – especially for teens – growing  Identity and meaning from work, family, community are all changing  Compassion and empathy in decline as is spirituality  Meaning cannot be found in “stuff” but in purpose and compassion
  15. 15. Implications for Colleges and Polytechnics The “So What?” Question
  16. 16. Secure New Markets Reimagine Business Processes Hyperscale Platforms for Global Reach Unconstrain Supply of Learning Supports Refining and Strengthening their Value Proposition
  17. 17. 6 Big Implications  Flexibility is key – modular, stackable, on-demand learning  Assessment anytime, anywhere – assessment is the key to the skills agenda  Think glocal – faculty, learning and assessment are global resources offered locally and local resources offered globally  Learner mobility is key - its not your job to “capture” students, it’s your job to enable them  Programs have structure but the learner needs to be able to codesign their own program  Collaboration not competition is the key to all of our futures
  18. 18. Challenges for the Polytechnic Polytechnics are the Key to the Future
  19. 19. As long as..  They don’t try to become universities – don’t lose sight of the mission  They stay closely connected to their communities and their challenges  They think “laddering” from apprenticeship to applied doctoral degrees and everything in between  They become more and more flexible – more and more uber-learning organizations and less rigid  They stay closely connected to firms, organizations and social networks in their jurisdiction  They rethink quality in terms of “fit for purpose” as opposed to the “mythical beast”  They are fun – learning is supposed to be fun!
  20. 20. So The Big Picture..  It’s a time of significant change..  More change to come…unbundling, new global competitors, new ways of learning  A new global financial crisis..  It’s what we live for, right!  The key – focused and strategic leadership…