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Six revolutions and their significance


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A Presentation to the Royal Society meeting in Vancouver, Monday, June 27th 2011. Due acknowledgements to sources.

Published in: News & Politics, Business

Six revolutions and their significance

  1. 1. BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future<br />Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FRSA, FBPsS<br />Chief Scout, Murgatroyd Communications & Consulting Inc<br />Vancouver, June 27th 2011<br />Marriot Pinnacle Hotel – an RSA Fellows Event<br />
  2. 2. “History is a mystery, but the future is clear…”<br />Ben Bernanke<br />
  3. 3. BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future<br />This presentation will look at six current “revolutions” and their significance. The six revolutions are:<br />Technology<br />Global Economics<br />Global power balances<br />Demographics<br />Climate Change & Water<br />Personal Identity<br />The underlying structure of these revolutions suggests…<br />The consequences of understanding these interlocking pattern are..<br />
  4. 4. Technology<br />The First Revolution<br />
  5. 5. Technology is Everywhere<br />The iPad is the fastest growing technology ever to be sold – iPad 1 sold 1 million in 28 days (April 2010) and the iPad 2 sold 1 million in 3 days (March 2011) – a total of 19.5 million have been sold in 12 months<br />The 10 billionth “app” for the iPhone/ iPad was downloaded on January 22nd 2011 at 1045 am<br />640 million Facebook users in 6 years<br />In Q4 of 2010 Smart Phone shipments outstrip PC shipments 2:1<br />
  6. 6. Adoption Speeds are Getting Faster(number of years to secure 80% penetration)<br />
  7. 7. Technology is Changing IndustriesThe Forest Sector…<br />Cellulosic Ethanol<br />Pulp & Paper<br />Nano Crystalline Cellulose<br />Bio Active Paper & Packs<br />Building Material<br />Renewable diesel<br />Aircraft Fuels<br />Energy<br />Bio Plastics<br />Food Additives<br />Bio Oils<br />Methanol<br />Textiles<br />Renewable Tires using Lignin<br />Bio Pharmaceuticals<br />
  8. 8. Music / Movie Rental Industry<br />iTunes has changed this industry, with over 5 billion downloads<br />iTunes Store also has the largest music catalogue online, with over 8 million tracks. <br />iTunes Store is now renting over 50,000 movies daily, turning it into the most popular movie store, too, with a catalogue of over 20,000 TV episodes, over 2,000 films, of which over 350+ are available in HD quality.<br />
  9. 9. Health CareThe Robot-Biotech Revolution<br />In Canada/US 75,000 robotic surgeries each year and growing at 12% CAGR in North America <br />Nanotechnology products in health care now appearing:<br />Drug delivery system<br />Inner nano-bots monitoring systems<br />Growing “organs” for transplant<br />New neuroscience and biotech permitting new kinds of proesthetics<br />
  10. 10. Technology Revolution<br />Broadband based technologies are disruptive<br />They are fundamentally changing service industries, e.g.<br />Banking<br />Travel<br />Music and Movies<br />Books <br />Newspapers<br />Education<br />Digital and robotic technologies are increasingly disruptive. They are changing industries, e.g.<br />Forestry<br />Health care<br />Manufacturing<br />Logistics and supply chains<br />
  11. 11. The Pattern Here.. <br />A disruptive technology changes behaviour of large number of people which institutions and organization are initially slow to respond to<br />Over time, new products and services emerge which change industries (e.g. itunes, iPad)<br />Other sectors then are emboldened by developments in related sectors and seek to adopt/adapt <br />New firms emerge which “get” the technology and create new products and services – e.g. <br />Over time. Established firms (Blockbuster) are replaced by new players (Netflix)<br />
  12. 12. The Tech Bubble S Curve(Think RIM)<br />
  13. 13. History Tells Us About This..<br />The S Curve’s History<br />Horse replaced by the car<br />Candles and gas lights replaced by electricity<br />Silent films replaced cinema talkies, Videos replaced by PVO’s and DVDs, Blockbuster by Netflix<br />Disruptive technologies create new classes of workers, new kinds of drivers for wealth and new kinds of organizations<br />Social structure changes in line with technology, but generally slowly<br />Speed of technological replacement of core societal technologies has been slow, but is now accelerating..<br />
  14. 14. Global economy<br />Revolution 2<br />
  15. 15. US Debt to 2019<br />
  16. 16. Workers Share of National Income (US)1947 - 2010<br />
  17. 17. GDP Growth Doesn’t Equate to Genuine Happiness Growth<br />
  18. 18. Other Data Confirm ThisNo Happier than when Truman was President of the US<br />
  19. 19. The Dynamics<br />Emerging BRIC’s economies are having a major impact on the global economy<br />Brazil – now the 5th largest holder of US debt, will grow at an average of 4.4% annually between now and 2050<br />Russia - will grow at an average of 4 % annually between now and 2050<br />India - will grow at an average of 8.1% annually between now and 2050<br />China – the largest holder of US debt, will grow 9.3% in 2011 and average 5.9% to 2050<br />When we look at the economic “shape” of the world in 2050 it looks somewhat different from now…<br />
  20. 20.
  21. 21. Other Complications to the “Normal” Economic Order..<br />PIGS economies remain weak and vulnerable, especially Greece<br />Japan will take a considerable time to restore economic health given its level of debt and the impact of the tsunami / earthquake which had a significant effect on global supply chains<br />The middle east unrest (especially Syria) are having a destabilising effect on that regional economy and could have a medium term impact on oil prices and inflation<br />US debt (Federal $14.3 trillion and growing / 48 US States in severe financial trouble) coupled with the inability of the political system to agree a strategy is extremely problematic<br />Oil, commodity and food inflation will have a significant impact on the world economy, especially the world’s poor<br />Structural sovereign debt is everywhere – we are headed to a decade or more of austerity in the developed world with major impacts on trade and employment<br />Central bank balance sheets are bloated and will be adjusted down with higher interest rates, which will have a significant impact on global trade<br />Labour supply in the developed world “tight” – and challenging. Global war for talent is “on”.<br />
  22. 22. G-Zero for Global Institutions<br />It’s a flat but lumpy economic world…<br />Historically, the G7 (then the G8 and then the G20) met twice a year to adjust elements of the global economic strategy. The IMF and the World Bank were also “directed” through these meetings.<br />These organizations are now dysfunctional – we live in the G-Zero age with no institution fully engaged/ able to step up to a significant transition, though the IMF and World Bank are seeking to fulfill this role.<br />Our economic institutions are in the process of rebalancing and redefining their roles<br />Meantime, we have a “an unusually uncertain environment” (Ben Bernanke) – code for “we’re flying blind”.<br />
  23. 23. Global power balances<br />Revolution 3<br />
  24. 24. It’s Safe To Say..<br />We are witness to the beginning of the decline of the US as the worlds global super-power<br />Vietnam Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya not military successes<br />Economic power clearly in decline as the BRIC’s economies emerge<br />Political “messy-ness” characterizes Washington<br />Low rates of democratic participation (55-56% and as low as 49% in 1996), especially amongst some ethnic groups and fractionation of politics (T-Party, lobbying)<br /> Banking system in relative permanent state of uncertainty<br />Low performance on PISA educational attainments – 24th in the world on mathematics (lower position than 2006) and 7th in the world on reading.<br />Europe going through a major transition – EU 27 struggling to gain identity in a time of austerity and tension between Germany/France/UK on the one hand and the PIGS economies on the other as well as between the UK and Eurozone<br />Former global powers of the G7 nations (US, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada) are shifting with some in serious economic trouble (US, Japan, Italy) and some seeking to punch globally above their weight (UK, Canada, France) and some unsure about their status (Italy)<br />
  25. 25. The Post Washington Consensus(Birdsall and Fukuyama, March 2011 Foreign Affairs Vol. 90(2))<br />Post recession:<br />The assumption that emerging economies could benefit from the stronger flow of foreign capital (“the foreign finance fetish”) has been questioned by the huge financial externalities imposed by foreign capital (and its volatility) for these economies.<br />Regulated financial markets are just as important for the US and Europe as they are for the emerging economies<br />Social safety nets make a significant difference to the speed / costs of post recession recovery<br />Re-emergence of the importance of industrial policy<br />Recognition that the “market” is one force and balancing this with government is essential <br />An effective, quality public sector is a critical ingredient in the efficiency of post-capitalist market based economies<br />The emergence of multi-polarity: Pole 1: US, Europe and Japan; Pole 2: Brazil, China, India and South Africa with many countries join one orother, depending on the issue.<br />
  26. 26. Other Aspects of the World Are Also Changing<br />Hans Rolling BBC 200 Countries / 200 years in 4 minutes<br /><ul><li>Shifts in the balance of power in Africa, Asia
  27. 27. Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)
  28. 28. Quickly growing middle class in Asia, India and Africa
  29. 29. Health quality rising in formerly unhealthy regions</li></li></ul><li>Education Landscape is Changing<br />
  30. 30. demographics<br />Revolution 4<br />
  31. 31. Lets Begin with CanadaAge specific Fertility Rates 1926 - 2005<br />
  32. 32. Now Lets Look at The US<br />
  33. 33. And Now Europe<br />
  34. 34.
  35. 35. The Grey Tsunami is Beginning<br />
  36. 36. Our Demographic Challenge<br />Lowering world-wide of fertility, linked to growing health and wealth<br />Many people in the developed world (but also in China and India) living longer<br />Rising middle class in East will replace the buying power of the middle class in the west<br />Costs of social programs (especially health) rising and debt levels in major economies higher<br />Fewer people in work to pay taxes to support a growing number of people not in work<br />Austerity likely, with a major impact on employment which in turn, encourages a shift to outsourcing…<br />
  37. 37. The Earth and Climate change<br />Revolution 5<br />
  38. 38. Climate Change is Not NewIt Occurs Around every 1,500 Years<br />
  39. 39. Does Appear to be Getting Warmer..<br />Though some suggests that data anomalies / Adjustments cause some of this warming. Others claim that the warming effectively stopped in 1998……<br />
  40. 40. …and there is more atmospheric CO2<br />The current June 2011 CO2 levels are estimated at 390 ppm. The last time CO2was that high was around 3 million years ago, in the early Pliocene. Back then, CO2levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Fear is it will rise to 550 ppm by 2050 (unlikely).<br />
  41. 41. World Water Situation Growingly Problematic<br />
  42. 42. US Water Sustainability Map(Darker the red, the more problematic)<br />
  43. 43. Canada’s Water Situation in 2050<br />Per capita, Canadians are the planet's second-biggest water consumers, behind Americans. The average Canadian uses 335 litres per day -- more than double Europeans' usage. And Canadian water use is growing (by 25 per cent over the past two decades), while other developed countries, including the U.S., have seen consumption drop.<br />Canada's water gluttony is starker still. Most of the 1.1 billion people worldwide who are water poor must survive on five litres per day. That's less than a Canadian uses to flush a toilet -- even of the low-flush variety.<br />
  44. 44. Impacts of Climate Change on Canada’s Water Supply..<br />British Columbia<br />Warm temperatures cause glacier retreat. (Glaciers supply water for irrigation, drinking and hydroelectric power. Runoff also maintains river habitat.)<br />Precipitation is more intense, with greater winter rainfall.<br />Lack of water resources lead to water conflicts.<br />Prairie provinces<br />Declining water resources due to melting glaciers and less snow cover in Rockies.<br />More droughts, affecting crop irrigation, soil quality and wetland habitats.<br />Changes in water quality due to low flows.<br />Ontario<br />Lower water levels in Great Lakes lead to increases in shipping costs and problems launching, operating boats.<br />Water-borne pathogens carrying infectious diseases proliferate in higher water temperatures.<br />
  45. 45. Quebec<br />Flooding affects over 80 per cent of municipalities located on the waterfront.<br />Extreme precipitation events and flooding overwhelm municipal sewer systems.<br />St. Lawrence River fluctuations affect fisheries, wetlands, water supply, hydro power, navigation and marinas.<br />Atlantic Provinces<br />Rising sea levels cause erosion, flooding of coastal habitats.<br />Storm, tidal surges increase, leading to more frequent flooding.<br />Droughts affect quantity, quality and allocation of water for agriculture.<br />
  46. 46. Four Generalized Response Scenarios(Probability in Brackets Judged by 60 Leading Thinkers / Years = Mean Arrival Dates of the Scenario)<br />
  47. 47. A new “self”<br />Revolution Six<br />
  48. 48. Challenges to Our Sense of Identity<br />We are experiencing a generation who confuse “tweeting” with meaning; Facebook friends with friendship, reality TV with reality<br />Shifting from homo-sapien to homo-zapien<br />Many search for meaning in relation to<br />Family, community and society<br />Self and personal identity<br />Personal relationship<br />Relationship to knowledge, information and wisdom <br />
  49. 49. The Identity Revolution<br />Sustaining the resilience of the human spirit<br />Enabling spirituality and mindfulness<br />Being happy in work, home, community<br />Involvement in community<br />Balancing the “egocentric” (a focus on “me/I”) with the allocenetric (a focus on the “us” and others)<br />The identity challenge shows itself in:<br />Language and thought<br />Education<br />The construct of “news” – substance versus “froth” and the fascination with “celebrity”<br />Decline of religion <br />Shifts in social institutions - marriage, family, <br />
  50. 50. The “S” CURVES OF HISTORY<br />Understanding the Implications<br />
  51. 51. The S Curve and History<br />The S curve is an established pattern in biology, physics, geology, economics, technology and other spheres<br />It describes a dynamic in which an activity reaches a natural limit and then declines…or cannot recover from a major disruption<br />For example, semiconductors on a single chip reached a physical limit, so we moved to dual processors..<br />Not deterministic – contingent, function of human agency and the maturity of the curve can be sustained by innovation…but<br />The decisions of individuals do produce patterns in populations (e.g. demographics) which are S curve like..<br />
  52. 52. Overlapping S Curves<br />“In Between Time”<br />
  53. 53. This is an “In Between” Time<br />Transition from a post modern/information age to a biotech/robotic age<br />Transition from an age of abundance to one of austerity<br />Transition from an age of “me” to an age of “who am I?”<br />Transition from the text to the tweet and from newspapers to sound bits and digi-clips<br />Transition from a robust, rich US dominated world to a declining/ weak US engaged world with China holding sway<br />Transition from a community oriented society to a “self” oriented society<br />Transition from established and meaningful global institutions to the G-Zero world<br />
  54. 54. Understanding Transitions : Different Social Structures in Different Economic Ages<br />
  55. 55. A New 21st Century Renaissance?<br />The Medieval Renaissance<br />Challenges to generally accepted boundaries of thought and action<br />Redefining of who had power/authority<br />Realignment of the power of the church and state<br />Exploration, innovation and cultural enrichment<br />New technology (printing)<br />Reinvention of “self”<br />New forms of expression – new forms of art, music, drama, poetry<br />21st Century Renaissance<br />Realigning of social, political and economic boundaries<br />Power shifting in terms of social democratic movements and the fractionation of politics<br />New forms of religious beliefs and a new secularism<br />Innovation, technological disruption with social consequences (e.g. social media, biotech, robotics)<br />Reinvention of “self” and “followership”<br />New forms of expression – social media, new forms of music and art, drama, film..<br />
  56. 56. Let the journey continue!This presentation is available on<br /><br /><br /><br />