Six revolutions and their significance

Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSAPresident and CEO at futureTHINK Press
BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future,[object Object],Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FRSA, FBPsS,[object Object],Chief Scout, Murgatroyd Communications & Consulting Inc,[object Object],Vancouver, June 27th 2011,[object Object],Marriot Pinnacle Hotel – an RSA Fellows Event,[object Object]
“History is a mystery, but the future is clear…”,[object Object],Ben Bernanke,[object Object]
BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future,[object Object],This presentation will look at six current “revolutions” and their significance. The six revolutions are:,[object Object],Technology,[object Object],Global Economics,[object Object],Global power balances,[object Object],Demographics,[object Object],Climate Change & Water,[object Object],Personal Identity,[object Object],The underlying structure of these revolutions suggests…,[object Object],The consequences of understanding these interlocking pattern are..,[object Object]
Technology,[object Object],The First Revolution,[object Object]
Technology is Everywhere,[object Object],The iPad is the fastest growing technology ever to be sold – iPad 1 sold 1 million in 28 days (April 2010) and the iPad 2 sold 1 million in 3 days (March 2011) – a total of 19.5 million have been sold in 12 months,[object Object],The 10 billionth “app” for the iPhone/ iPad was downloaded on January 22nd 2011 at 1045 am,[object Object],640 million Facebook users in 6 years,[object Object],In Q4 of 2010 Smart Phone shipments outstrip PC shipments 2:1,[object Object]
Adoption Speeds are Getting Faster(number of years to secure 80% penetration),[object Object]
Technology is Changing IndustriesThe Forest Sector…,[object Object],Cellulosic Ethanol,[object Object],Pulp & Paper,[object Object],Nano Crystalline Cellulose,[object Object],Bio Active Paper & Packs,[object Object],Building Material,[object Object],Renewable diesel,[object Object],Aircraft Fuels,[object Object],Energy,[object Object],Bio Plastics,[object Object],Food Additives,[object Object],Bio Oils,[object Object],Methanol,[object Object],Textiles,[object Object],Renewable Tires using Lignin,[object Object],Bio Pharmaceuticals,[object Object]
Music / Movie Rental Industry,[object Object],iTunes has changed this industry, with over 5 billion downloads,[object Object],iTunes Store also has the largest music catalogue online, with over 8 million tracks. ,[object Object],iTunes Store is now renting over 50,000 movies daily, turning it into the most popular movie store, too, with a catalogue of over 20,000 TV episodes, over 2,000 films, of which over 350+ are available in HD quality.,[object Object]
Health CareThe Robot-Biotech Revolution,[object Object],In Canada/US 75,000 robotic surgeries each year and growing at 12% CAGR in North America ,[object Object],Nanotechnology products in health care now appearing:,[object Object],Drug delivery system,[object Object],Inner nano-bots monitoring systems,[object Object],Growing “organs” for transplant,[object Object],New neuroscience and biotech permitting new kinds of proesthetics,[object Object]
Technology Revolution,[object Object],Broadband based technologies are disruptive,[object Object],They are fundamentally changing service industries, e.g.,[object Object],Banking,[object Object],Travel,[object Object],Music and Movies,[object Object],Books ,[object Object],Newspapers,[object Object],Education,[object Object],Digital and robotic technologies are increasingly disruptive. They are changing industries, e.g.,[object Object],Forestry,[object Object],Health care,[object Object],Manufacturing,[object Object],Logistics and supply chains,[object Object]
The Pattern Here.. ,[object Object],A disruptive technology changes behaviour of large number of people which institutions and organization are initially slow to respond to,[object Object],Over time, new products and services emerge which change industries (e.g. itunes, iPad),[object Object],Other sectors then are emboldened by developments in related sectors and seek to adopt/adapt ,[object Object],New firms emerge which “get” the technology and create new products and services – e.g. yet2.com ,[object Object],Over time. Established firms (Blockbuster) are replaced by new players (Netflix),[object Object]
The Tech Bubble S Curve(Think RIM),[object Object]
History Tells Us About This..,[object Object],The S Curve’s History,[object Object],Horse replaced by the car,[object Object],Candles and gas lights replaced by electricity,[object Object],Silent films replaced cinema talkies, Videos replaced by PVO’s and DVDs, Blockbuster by Netflix,[object Object],Disruptive technologies create new classes of workers, new kinds of drivers for wealth and new kinds of organizations,[object Object],Social structure changes in line with technology, but generally slowly,[object Object],Speed of technological replacement of core societal technologies has been slow, but is now accelerating..,[object Object]
Global economy,[object Object],Revolution 2,[object Object]
US Debt to 2019,[object Object]
Workers Share of National Income (US)1947 - 2010,[object Object]
GDP Growth Doesn’t Equate to Genuine Happiness Growth,[object Object]
Other Data Confirm ThisNo Happier than when Truman was President of the US,[object Object]
The Dynamics,[object Object],Emerging BRIC’s economies are having a major impact on the global economy,[object Object],Brazil – now the 5th largest holder of US debt, will grow at an average of 4.4% annually between now and 2050,[object Object],Russia - will grow at an average of 4 % annually between now and 2050,[object Object],India - will grow at an average of 8.1% annually between now and 2050,[object Object],China – the largest holder of US debt, will grow 9.3% in 2011 and average 5.9% to 2050,[object Object],When we look at the economic “shape” of the world in 2050 it looks somewhat different from now…,[object Object]
Six revolutions and their significance
Other Complications to the “Normal” Economic Order..,[object Object],PIGS economies remain weak and vulnerable, especially Greece,[object Object],Japan will take a considerable time to restore economic health given its level of debt and the impact of the tsunami / earthquake which had a significant effect on global supply chains,[object Object],The middle east unrest (especially Syria) are having a destabilising effect on that regional economy and could have a medium term impact on oil prices and inflation,[object Object],US debt (Federal $14.3 trillion and growing / 48 US States in severe financial trouble) coupled with the inability of the political system to agree a strategy is extremely problematic,[object Object],Oil, commodity and food inflation will have a significant impact on the world economy, especially the world’s poor,[object Object],Structural sovereign debt is everywhere – we are headed to a decade or more of austerity in the developed world with major impacts on trade and employment,[object Object],Central bank balance sheets are bloated and will be adjusted down with higher interest rates, which will have a significant impact on global trade,[object Object],Labour supply in the developed world “tight” – and challenging. Global war for talent is “on”.,[object Object]
G-Zero for Global Institutions,[object Object],It’s a flat but lumpy economic world…,[object Object],Historically, the G7 (then the G8 and then the G20) met twice a year to adjust elements of the global economic strategy. The IMF and the World Bank were also “directed” through these meetings.,[object Object],These organizations are now dysfunctional – we live in the G-Zero age with no institution fully engaged/ able to step up to a significant transition, though the IMF and World Bank are seeking to fulfill this role.,[object Object],Our economic institutions are in the process of rebalancing and redefining their roles,[object Object],Meantime, we have a “an unusually uncertain environment” (Ben Bernanke) – code for “we’re flying blind”.,[object Object]
Global power balances,[object Object],Revolution 3,[object Object]
It’s Safe To Say..,[object Object],We are witness to the beginning of the decline of the US as the worlds global super-power,[object Object],Vietnam Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya not military successes,[object Object],Economic power clearly in decline as the BRIC’s economies emerge,[object Object],Political “messy-ness” characterizes Washington,[object Object],Low rates of democratic participation (55-56% and as low as 49% in 1996), especially amongst some ethnic groups and fractionation of politics (T-Party, lobbying),[object Object], Banking system in relative permanent state of uncertainty,[object Object],Low performance on PISA educational attainments – 24th in the world on mathematics (lower position than 2006) and 7th in the world on reading.,[object Object],Europe going through a major transition – EU 27 struggling to gain identity in a time of austerity and tension between Germany/France/UK  on the one hand and the PIGS economies on the other as well as between the UK and Eurozone,[object Object],Former global powers of the G7 nations (US, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada) are shifting with some in serious economic trouble (US, Japan, Italy) and some seeking to punch globally above their weight (UK, Canada, France) and some unsure about their status (Italy),[object Object]
The Post Washington Consensus(Birdsall and Fukuyama, March 2011 Foreign Affairs Vol. 90(2)),[object Object],Post recession:,[object Object],The assumption that emerging economies could benefit from the stronger flow of foreign capital (“the foreign finance fetish”) has been questioned by the huge financial externalities imposed by foreign capital (and its volatility) for these economies.,[object Object],Regulated financial markets are just as important for the US and Europe as they are for the emerging economies,[object Object],Social safety nets make a significant difference to the speed / costs of post recession recovery,[object Object],Re-emergence of the importance of industrial policy,[object Object],Recognition that the “market” is one force and balancing this with government is essential ,[object Object],An effective, quality public sector is a critical ingredient in the efficiency of post-capitalist market based economies,[object Object],The emergence of multi-polarity: Pole 1: US, Europe and Japan; Pole 2: Brazil, China, India and South Africa with many countries join one orother, depending on the issue.,[object Object]
Other Aspects of the World Are Also Changing,[object Object],Hans Rolling BBC 200 Countries / 200 years in 4 minutes,[object Object],[object Object]
Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)
Quickly growing middle class in Asia, India and Africa
Health quality rising in formerly unhealthy regions,[object Object]
demographics,[object Object],Revolution 4,[object Object]
Lets Begin with CanadaAge specific Fertility Rates 1926 - 2005,[object Object]
Now Lets Look at The US,[object Object]
And Now Europe,[object Object]
Six revolutions and their significance
The Grey Tsunami is Beginning,[object Object]
Our Demographic Challenge,[object Object],Lowering world-wide of fertility, linked to growing health and wealth,[object Object],Many people in the developed world (but also in China and India) living longer,[object Object],Rising middle class in East will replace the buying power of the middle class in the west,[object Object],Costs of social programs (especially health) rising and debt levels in major economies higher,[object Object],Fewer people in work to pay taxes to support a growing number of people not in work,[object Object],Austerity likely, with a major impact on employment which in turn, encourages a shift to outsourcing…,[object Object]
The Earth and Climate change,[object Object],Revolution 5,[object Object]
Climate Change is Not NewIt Occurs Around every 1,500 Years,[object Object]
Does Appear to be Getting Warmer..,[object Object],Though some suggests that data anomalies / Adjustments cause some of this warming. Others claim that the warming effectively stopped in 1998……,[object Object]
…and there is more atmospheric CO2,[object Object],The current June 2011 CO2 levels are estimated at 390 ppm. The last time CO2was that high was around 3 million years ago, in the early Pliocene. Back then, CO2levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Fear is it will rise to 550 ppm by 2050 (unlikely).,[object Object]
World Water Situation Growingly Problematic,[object Object]
US Water Sustainability Map(Darker the red, the more problematic),[object Object]
Canada’s Water Situation in 2050,[object Object],Per capita, Canadians are the planet's second-biggest water consumers, behind Americans. The average Canadian uses 335 litres per day -- more than double Europeans' usage. And Canadian water use is growing (by 25 per cent over the past two decades), while other developed countries, including the U.S., have seen consumption drop.,[object Object],Canada's water gluttony is starker still. Most of the 1.1 billion people worldwide who are water poor must survive on five litres per day. That's less than a Canadian uses to flush a toilet -- even of the low-flush variety.,[object Object]
Impacts of Climate Change on Canada’s Water Supply..,[object Object],British Columbia,[object Object],Warm temperatures cause glacier retreat. (Glaciers supply water for irrigation, drinking and hydroelectric power. Runoff also maintains river habitat.),[object Object],Precipitation is more intense, with greater winter rainfall.,[object Object],Lack of water resources lead to water conflicts.,[object Object],Prairie provinces,[object Object],Declining water resources due to melting glaciers and less snow cover in Rockies.,[object Object],More droughts, affecting crop irrigation, soil quality and wetland habitats.,[object Object],Changes in water quality due to low flows.,[object Object],Ontario,[object Object],Lower water levels in Great Lakes lead to increases in shipping costs and problems launching, operating boats.,[object Object],Water-borne pathogens carrying infectious diseases proliferate in higher water temperatures.,[object Object]
Quebec,[object Object],Flooding affects over 80 per cent of municipalities located on the waterfront.,[object Object],Extreme precipitation events and flooding overwhelm municipal sewer systems.,[object Object],St. Lawrence River fluctuations affect fisheries, wetlands, water supply, hydro power, navigation and marinas.,[object Object],Atlantic Provinces,[object Object],Rising sea levels cause erosion, flooding of coastal habitats.,[object Object],Storm, tidal surges increase, leading to more frequent flooding.,[object Object],Droughts affect quantity, quality and allocation of water for agriculture.,[object Object]
Four Generalized Response Scenarios(Probability in Brackets Judged by 60 Leading Thinkers / Years = Mean Arrival Dates of the Scenario),[object Object]
A new “self”,[object Object],Revolution Six,[object Object]
Challenges to Our Sense of Identity,[object Object],We are experiencing a generation who confuse “tweeting” with meaning; Facebook friends with friendship, reality TV with reality,[object Object],Shifting from homo-sapien to homo-zapien,[object Object],Many search for meaning in relation to,[object Object],Family, community and society,[object Object],Self and personal identity,[object Object],Personal relationship,[object Object],Relationship to knowledge, information and wisdom ,[object Object]
The Identity Revolution,[object Object],Sustaining the resilience of the human spirit,[object Object],Enabling spirituality and mindfulness,[object Object],Being happy in work, home, community,[object Object],Involvement in community,[object Object],Balancing the “egocentric” (a focus on “me/I”) with the allocenetric (a focus on the “us” and others),[object Object],The identity challenge shows itself in:,[object Object],Language and thought,[object Object],Education,[object Object],The construct of “news” – substance versus “froth” and the fascination with “celebrity”,[object Object],Decline of religion ,[object Object],Shifts in social institutions  - marriage, family, ,[object Object]
The “S” CURVES OF HISTORY,[object Object],Understanding the Implications,[object Object]
The S Curve and History,[object Object],The S curve is an established pattern in biology, physics, geology, economics, technology and other spheres,[object Object],It describes a dynamic in which an activity reaches a natural limit and then declines…or cannot recover from a major disruption,[object Object],For example, semiconductors on a single chip reached a physical limit, so we moved to dual processors..,[object Object],Not deterministic – contingent, function of human agency and the maturity of the curve can be sustained by innovation…but,[object Object],The decisions of individuals do produce patterns in populations (e.g. demographics) which are S curve like..,[object Object]
Overlapping S Curves,[object Object],“In Between Time”,[object Object]
This is an “In Between” Time,[object Object],Transition from a post modern/information age to a biotech/robotic age,[object Object],Transition from an age of abundance to one of austerity,[object Object],Transition from an age of “me” to an age of “who am I?”,[object Object],Transition from the text to the tweet and from newspapers to sound bits and digi-clips,[object Object],Transition from a robust, rich US dominated world to a declining/ weak US engaged world with China holding sway,[object Object],Transition from a community oriented society to a “self” oriented society,[object Object],Transition from established and meaningful global institutions to the G-Zero world,[object Object]
Understanding Transitions : Different Social Structures in Different Economic Ages,[object Object]
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Six revolutions and their significance

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  • 27. Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)
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Editor's Notes

  1. This figure shows the long-term evolution of oxygen isotope ratios during the Phanerozoiceon as measured in fossils, reported by Veizer et al. (1999), and updated online in 2004 [1]. Such ratios reflect both the local temperature at the site of deposition and global changes associated with the extent of permanent continental glaciation. As such, relative changes in oxygen isotope ratios can be interpreted as rough changes in climate. Quantitative conversion between these data and direct temperature changes is a complicated process subject to many systematic uncertainties, however it is estimated that each 1 part per thousand change in δ18O represents roughly a 1.5-2 °C change in tropical sea surface temperatures (Veizer et al. 2000).