By 2030, 30% of Canadians will be over 60 years of age There will be 2 working age people in Canada for each retiree – down from 4 in 2015. More seniors than students in K-12 for the first time.
Global population will exceed 9 billion The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number 80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14 In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65
2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030, mainly in Asia, India and Africa By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or Europe (41% of them are already Asian based) 425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in Asia
Look in a grocery store and ask “where did these products come from?”
Holland is using technology to change its economy – now the world’s second largest exporter of food…
Kenya is the world’s third largest exporter of cut flowers..
Look at the rise of MOOC’s – In 2016, over 700 universities and colleges offered between them some 6,850 MOOC courses which were taken by some 58 million students.
At the BMW Cowley plant in the UK, a new custom built mini rolls off the production line every 61 seconds thanks to over 2,500 robots and 120 person shifts. The robots, supported by machine intelligent systems, oversee the system of productions..
Just think what 3D can do – print a 2 bedroom house in 24 hours for $12,000US which meets the California building code.
The nature of work and the organization that shape it is changing. Think UBER, think 99Designs, think of all those organizations which have learned to dance with robots.
Chris Katurna suggests: There is good evidence, for example, that within developed countries “the economy” is now splitting into two: the one, a “dynamic sector” of high-value industries where AI, robotics and other technologies are creating tremendous gains in wealth and productivity; and the other, a “stagnant sector” of low-value industries with low job security and low pay.
IBM Watson (just one AI engine) offers powerful solutions in health care, education, financial services and for other sectors. E.g. Preventive maintenance Replacing underwriters in a large insurance company in Japan Offering health treatment strategies on the basis of MRI’s.. Able to locate specific moments within a video Offers support to teachers for class lesson planning We have seen nothing yet…
By the year 2015 in Canada, app. 40% of the workforce were contingent workers – contracted for service rather than employees. 16% declare themselves in this way as self-employed. The contingent workforce doubled since 2008. Largest number of contingent workers are young people under the age of 35. Canada has the 3rd largest contingent workforce in the world behind New Zealand (#1) and the US (#2). 75% of the university sector are contingent workers (sessional, part-timers). Worldwide, 40% of the world’s workforce are contingent workers and this number is expected to rise to 60% by 2020. In the Fortune 100 companies, contingent workers make up 30% of the workforce, but predictions are that will soon rise to 50%.
Per capita funding for college and institute students has fallen over time. Deferred maintenance remains a major challenge – 60% of college/institute infrastructure seems past is “sell by” date. We do not invest enough in innovation / R&D in colleges and institutes. Don’t get me started on indigneous education investments!
But our governments have significant challenges fiscally – not only debt (combined is $1.7 trillion), operating deficits (e.g. Alberta’s operating deficit in current fiscal year is estimated at $110.3 billion) but also demographic shifts.
We can expect some focused, structured investments but austerity is the name of the game for Canada (and many other parts of the world) for some time to come…
Man’s Search for Meaning continues…
Reshaping of social identity in the light of social media, new forms of connection between people..new values and mindsets.
Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) are of special interest, since they will soon “own” the workplace. Their values are subtly different from the generation before them:
More open to multi-culturalism More likely to live at home longer (average Italian male lives at home till 35) Less religious, more community minded More focused on work-life balance More interested in gig economy
See Pew Centre ongoing research on millennials at http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/millennials/
The Skills Gap
A major preoccupation of Governments and industry, but is in fact a complex issue.
We do not know what skills will be needed when AI,3D printing etc will displace between 30-45% of jobs in Canada by 2040. We do know that the key skills in learning how to learning, learning how to be, learning how to do and learning to be with others. 65% of those starting primary school this year will be employed in jobs that don’t yet exist. 60% of those starting primary school this year will enter the “gig” economy – the contingent workforce in Australia is currently 30% of all seeking work. The biggest demand for skills will be for skills which robots and technological systems find difficult – problem finding, critical thinking, creative work. STEM is not the future – STEAM is!
Many companies do not know what skills they will need in 2020…
Lots of uses of “big data” (but in colleges and universities its more talk than action)..
Think about how data now informs policy and action… Think about how big data now shapes marketing..
In K-12 datafication is a maior trend and impacts resource allocation (money, HR) and is starting to shape policy (PISA envy).
Pressure for performance and results and pressure to comply and meet standards is growing in colleges and institutes around the world. Compliance is a challenge and can inhibit innovation, rapid change and new ways of working. Colleges and institutes need to lead a rethink of accountability and KPI’s focused on student engagement, outcomes and impact.
Quality standards for higher education are based on outdated thinking about quality.. Peer review is no longer an adequate basis for such work and it is clear that our QA processes inhibit innovation. While we need to protect the public interest – look at the recent spate of stories about fake degrees, for example – we do need to get To a point where established Colleges and Institutes can take risks with new approaches to programs and development..
Collaboration is the DNA of the knowledge economy.
Presidents and leadership teams need to engage in the work of strategic foresight and undertake planning working back from the future rather than starting where they are. When we do so we should imagine new forms of learning, new uses of technology and new ways of engaging our instructors. Think 5-8 years out, then work back year by year to the present – what do we need to stop doing, improve, redesign and start? See http://www.lulu.com/ca/en/shop/stephen-murgatroyd/how-to-rethink-the-future-making-use-of-strategic-foresight/ebook/product-22430074.html
Collaboration is the DNA of the knowledge economy and is the key to a different future.. Think:
Partnerships and alliance not competition Think of new forms of collaboration – e.g. work based learning, assessment based qualifications Think of new collaborations with firms and industry associations.. Think networks of collaborators.. Think collaborative incubators Think global and local – think glocally..
Waiting for Godot is a fools game .. “Forgiveness is easier to get than permission” With your Board as champions and with your collaborators as partners, lead and challenge and push and take risks for the future. Remember: resilience is giving up on giving in
Building adaptive capacity into the fabric of the organization is a critical task. Adaptive colleges / institutes are: Engines of innovative Teamwork dominates the methods of working. Constantly using small data to detect change patterns that are worth responding to Leadership is distributed, engaged and situational. Risk taking occurs within a context of care for others. Interdependent, dynamic. Safe
The capacity of an institution requires engagement of those who can make most difference – the student. Student voice is the most underutilized asset of post-secondary institutions. Engage students in course design, program rethinking, new approaches to assessment, new forms of collaboration and all / any innovation. You will be surprised.
The basic work of leadership comes down to these three areas of work – thinking ahead and faster, collaboration and leading within to build adaptive capacity.
No doubt or wine producers can recommend appropriate ”solutions” !!
Colleges and Institutes Canada Keynote Presentation Oct 2017
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
Chief Innovation Officer, Contact North | Contact Nord
email@example.com / @murgatroydsteph
A brief history of the future
A review of implications for colleges and institutes
A look at the implications for leaders and policy
Distractions and Diversions
Distraction 1: Fix the infrastructure – “If only we had
more effective curricula, more rigorous standards,
more clear policy, and more alternative-shaped
Distraction 2: Fix the student – “If only we had better,
well-prepared students from the school system…”
Distraction 3: Fix the colleges– “If only colleges had
more money and autonomy, they would be better
Distraction 4: Fix the instructors– “If only instructors
had better training, were paid for performance and
adopted new technology we could….”
If Those are Distractions and
Diversions, What Should We Focus
1. A focus on learners, learning and success…
Learning to learn, learning to be, learning to do and learning
to live together
Personalizing learning journeys, learning processes and the
assessment of learning
Enabling innovative routes to credentials..
2. A focus on outcomes, competencies and capabilities..
Competencies and capabilities not courses
Assessment as the new “bitcoin” for colleges and institutes –
anywhere, anytime assessment for competencies and
End time-based learning (Carnegie Unit) and focus on what
learners need to be able to do / can do..
3. A focus on flexible, modular, stackable learning
Micro courses (1,2,3,4 weeks)
Stackable courses which can accumulate to transferable
365 day admission – fix time to complete
E-portfolio “passports” for learning
4. A focus on multiple routes to success
Online, in class, through work
Work-based learning partnerships for credit
Prior Learning Competency Assessments
MOOC’s for credit
5. A focus on innovative approaches to partnerships and
New partnerships local, regional and global
New collaborations for learning and credit
Embracing AI as a way to personalize learning
Embracing “unusual suspects” for new kinds of pathways
6. A focus on impact and sustainability
Think personal impact
Think social impact
Think economic impact
Think of the impact you have on a trade, profession,
firm, community and measure it..