Mobile lifecycle

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A brief presentation from Wise Arbor

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Mobile lifecycle

  1. 1. WiseHarbor reaffirms forecast findings published one year ago that LTE will be as successfulas the leading cellular technologies that preceded it with LTE-TDD precipitating the demise ofWiMAX which will peak by 2015. Mobile broadband will do for Internet connections—averagingseveral gigabytes usage per month by 2020—what 2G has achieved over the last 15 years inproviding voice and text communication to more than half the worlds population with 5 billionconnections including those with multiple subscriptions. Forecast findings also include:1. Cellular will maintain its stellar growth because it is the cheapest, most convenient andpervasive means of connecting people. Increasing demand for mobile broadband and newtypes of devices will make up for saturating demand and price erosion in mature phonemarkets with voice and SMS. Two-sided operator charging, of content providers as well as endusers, will become the norm.2. Mobile device sales will grow from 1.6 billion units in 2010 to 3.9 billion in 2025 includingphones, new personal devices such as tablets and a wide variety of machines, such as carsand utility meters, which have previously been mostly unconnected. Handset revenues willflatten, approaching 2015, following current buoyancy in average selling prices and thesmartphone surge. Total global mobile connections in service will rise to 21.5 billion (2.7 perhead of population) by 2025.3. While data traffic grows more than 1,000-fold, operator revenue yield per megabyte willdecline dramatically from $100 with SMS, $1 in voice and $0.10 with mobile data in 2010 to$0.001 with data predominating in 2025 (global averages including postpaid and prepaidplans).4. LTE is set to become the leading technology by around the end of the decade withWCDMA-based HSPA Evolved technologies remaining very strong in the marketplace. GSMand CDMA will also continue beyond 2020. Mobile operator equipment expenditures willincrease at an annual average of 3.3% net of inflation, with most growth in developing regions.

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