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Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space?

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Presented at the 2015 International Space Station Research and Development Conference.

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Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space?

  1. 1. Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space? JEFF DAVIS, DIRECTOR, HUMAN HEALTH AND PERFORMANCE, NASA JSC MARK SHELHAMER, CHIEF SCIENTIST, NASA HUMAN RESEARCH PROGRAM, NASA BOB BAGDIGIAN , CHIEF, ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL AND LIFE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT BRANCH, MSFC NASA JAMES REUTHER, DEPUTY ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR OF PROGRAMS, STMD NASA
  2. 2. Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space? JAMES REUTHER, DEPUTY ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR OF PROGRAMS, STMD NASA
  3. 3. THE SPACE TECHNOLOGY PIPELINE 3 Continues maturation of promising low TRL technologies from CIF, SBIR, etc… Technology Development - • Game Changing Development Program • SBIR Program Phase III Technology Demonstrations • Technology Demonstration Systems • Small Spacecraft Technologies Low TRL Early Stage • NASA Innovative Adv Concepts Program • Space Tech Research Grants Program • Center Innovation Fund Program • SBIR Program Phases I & II Mid TRL High TRL New Technology Partners • Flight Opportunities Program • Centennial Challenges Program
  4. 4. HIGH POWER SOLAR ELECTRIC PROPULSION 4 Cross-cutting SEP development and demonstration objectives: • Develop & demonstrate a 25-50 kW class SEP tug  Extensible to 150-300 kW for deep space human exploration  Directly applicable to SMD & other government agency missions  First demonstration targeted for the Asteroid Redirect Mission • Develop & demonstrate SEP component technologies that benefit the commercial sector  Deployable solar arrays with reduced mass and efficient packaging for improved commercial satellite affordability and potential ISS retrofitting  High-power Hall thrusters for all-electric commercial satellites 4
  5. 5. SOLAR ELECTRIC PROPULSION FOR MARS MISSIONS 5 Major considerations related to using SEP for Mars missions: • Very high propellant usage efficiency (specific impulse 2000 to 4000+ s) • Reduces number of SLS launches needed for human Mars mission by as much as 50% by splitting crew and cargo transit • Developing key technologies (arrays, thrusters) to meet emerging industry needs can provide a stepping stone to scaling up for exploration missions • Very low thrust compared to chemical and nuclear thermal options so trip times are too long for crew transport Major technology development needs: • Very large solar array (100+ kW) development / demonstration • High-power (50-100 kW class) thruster development / demonstration • Power processing system development / demonstration • Propellant tank development / demonstration
  6. 6. WOVEN THERMAL PROTECTION SYSTEM Dry Woven TPS 2” diameter, 1650 W/cm2, 1.3 atm z z z Heritage Materials Woven Materials 6 • Woven TPS - can tailor the material composition for a given mission – Densities ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 g/cc have been manufactured • Highly compliant ablative woven TPS materials containing phenolic resins (dry woven, no resin infusion) – Reduces TPS integration challenges – Addresses common TPS cracking issues • Woven TPS will reduce mass for future exploration missions – Orion compression pads are first application – Improved performance / mass – Ability to tailor TPS through the thickness • Example of successful transition from a Center Innovation Fund to Game Changing
  7. 7. ENTRY SYSTEMS FOR HUMAN MARS MISSIONS TODAY: 4.5 m lands 900 kg 7 • 1970s Viking-era entry, descent, and landing technologies are inadequate for payloads larger than MSL-sized spacecraft  Rigid aeroshells constrained in size by launch shrouds do not provide enough surface area to slow down a human-scale Mars lander (20,000-40,000 kg)  Parachute technology (size and material) is too limited to apply  Can only access 30-40% of Mars; need to land below “sea level” • STMD is investing in entry systems to enable human Mars missions  Hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator (HIAD)  Inflatable tori with overlaid thermal protection system  Flight tested at 3 m scale (IRVE-2, IRVE-3 projects)  Currently about TRL 4 for human scale  Adaptive deployable entry and placement technology (ADEPT)  Mechanically deployed structure with carbon fabric skin  Flight test of 1 m article planned for FY16  Currently about TRL 2 for human scale • Both systems are folded for launch and deployed before Mars entry to provide an essentially rigid aerodynamic surface and the heating protection needed for hypersonic entry HIAD ADEPT
  8. 8. IN SITU RESOURCE UTILIZATION (ISRU) FOR MARS EXPLORATION Approach: • STMD partnered with SMD & AES to develop & demonstrate an ISRU payload for Mars 2020 mission  Successful precursor demonstration will mitigate risks associated with relying on ISRU for future Mars’ exploration missions  MIT-led ISRU demonstration selected using Mars 2020 Instrument AO  Will produce oxygen with 99.6% purity for the equivalent of 50 sols  STMD / AES will each provide $15M Overview/Background: • The in situ production of propellant and consumable oxygen enables more affordable and sustainable Mars exploration  Reduced Earth-launch mass & cryogenic storage burden  Reduced burden on Mars’ Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems  ISRU enables 200mt initial mass to LEO savings for single Mars mission* *Aerojet report 8
  9. 9. DEEP-SPACE OPTICAL COMMUNICATIONS (DSOC) ARCHITECTURE Spacecraft Operations Deep Space Network TM/TC Operations Center TM / TC Data TM / TC Mars Example Downlink rate (Mb/s) to 12m at 0.42AU 250 Downlink rate (Mb/s) to 5m at 0.42AU >100 Downlink rate (Mb/s) to 5m at 0.2AU >250 Mass (kg) 25 DC Power (W) 75 SEP, SPE (degrees) 12, 3 Lifetime (years) 5 22 cm Optical Head, Disturbance Isolation Opto-Electronics Box 1-m Diameter Existing Opt. Comm. Telescope Lab. Uplink5 m Hale Telescope 250 Mb/s Mars Orbiter Example: DOT vs Equivalent MRO Ka-band Telecom System 9
  10. 10. Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space? JEFF DAVIS, DIRECTOR, HUMAN HEALTH AND PERFORMANCE, NASA JSC
  11. 11. Human Health and Performance Risk Management 1000 Days in Space ISS R&D Conference July 7-9, 2015 Jeffrey R. Davis, MD
  12. 12. Hostile Spaceflight Environment Altered Gravity Radiation Isolation Closed Environment Distance from Earth Mitigations NASA Human Health and Performance Goal: Enable Successful Space Exploration by Minimizing the Risks of Spaceflight Hazards Deliverables: Technologies Countermeasures Preventions Treatments Spaceflight/Design Reference Missions Hazards Risks Standards Evidence Human Risks Bone & Muscle loss, Radiation Exposure, Toxic Exposure, etc Medical Ops Occupational Surveillance Environmental Research Standards to Requirements
  13. 13. Hazards of Spaceflight Hazards Drive Human Spaceflight Risks 13 Altered Gravity - Physiological Changes Distance from earth Hostile/ Closed Environment Space Radiation Isolation & Confinement Acute In-flight effects Long term cancer risk Balance Disorders Fluid Shifts Cardiovascular Deconditioning Muscle Atrophy Bone Loss Drives the need for additional “autonomous” medical care capacity – cannot come home for treatment Behavioral aspect of isolation Sleep disorders Vehicle Design Environmental – CO2 Levels, Toxic Exposures, Water, Food Decreased Immune Function
  14. 14. 14 Design Reference Missions Categories All of the Human Risks are evaluated against the following categories: DRM Categories Mission Duration Gravity Environment Radiation Environment Earth Return Low Earth Orbit 6 months Microgravity LEO - Van Allen 1 day or less 1 year Microgravity LEO - Van Allen 1 day or less Deep Space Sortie 1 month Microgravity Deep Space < 5 days Lunar Visit/Habitation 1 year 1/6g Lunar 5 Days Deep Space Journey/ Habitation 1 year Microgravity Deep Space Weeks to Months Planetary Visit/Habitation 3 years Fractional Planetary* Months Examples of Missions that would fall into the DRM Categories: Low Earth Orbit – ISS6, ISS12, Commercial Suborbital, Commercial Visits to ISS, future commercial platforms in LEO Deep Space Sortie: MPCV test flights, moon fly around or landing, visits to L1/L2, deep space excursion Lunar Habitation: Staying on the surface more than 30 Days (less than 30 days would be similar) Deep Space Habitation: L1/L2 Habitation, Asteroid visit, journey to planets Planetary Habitation: Living on a planetary surface, MARS *Planet has no magnetic poles, limited atmosphere
  15. 15. Evidence is gathered from in-flight medical and research operations, spaceflight analogs, terrestrial analogs, and/or animal data. Data must be correlated from NASA medical (LSAH), research (LSDA), environmental & terrestrial data bases. NASA/HMTA Human Risks Evidence Base Medical Data (mandatory) Medical data generally does not require informed consent and may only be used for:  Medical care by clinician  Occupational Surveillance Research Data (voluntary) • Research data requires informed consent by the subject & the data. • Ground analogs • Includes animal research Environmental & Operational Data Generation of Metrics to assess Human System Risks Data gathered to understand the occupational environment, such as: • CO2 levels, acoustic, landing loads, radiations levels, mission operations HMTA Human System Risk Assessment 15 Related terrestrial incidence, treatment and research Terrestrial Data +¾ of Risk Evidence from Operational Medical/Environmental/ Occupational Surveillance Programs ¼ of Risk Evidence from Research Programs (Focus on Human System Risks understanding and countermeasure development)Correlation of data by subject matter experts & physicians.
  16. 16. Summary of Human Risks of Spaceflight Grouped by Hazards – 30 Human Risks 16 Altered Gravity Field 1. Spaceflight-Induced Intracranial Hypertension/Vision Alterations 2. Renal Stone Formation 3. Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Space Flight 4. Bone Fracture due to spaceflight Induced changes to bone 5. Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength & Endurance 6. Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity 7. Adverse Health Effects Due to Host- Microorganism Interactions 8. Urinary Retention 9. Orthostatic Intolerance During Re- Exposure to Gravity 10.Cardiac Rhythm Problems 11.Space Adaptation Back Pain Radiation 1. Space Radiation Exposure on Human Health (cancer, cardio and CNS) Isolation 1. Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions & Psychiatric Disorders 2. Performance & Behavioral health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, & Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team Hostile/Closed Environment- Spacecraft Design 1. Acute and Chronic Carbon Dioxide Exposure 2. Performance decrement and crew illness due to inadequate food and nutrition 3. Reduced Crew Performance and of Injury Due to Inadequate Human-System Interaction Design (HSID) 4. Injury from Dynamic Loads 5. Injury and Compromised Performance due to EVA Operations 6. Adverse Health & Performance Effects of Celestial Dust Exposure 7. Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response 8. Reduced Crew Health and Performance Due to Hypobaric Hypoxia 9. Performance Decrements & Adverse Health Outcomes Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, & Work Overload 10. Decompression Sickness 11. Toxic Exposure 12. Hearing Loss Related to Spaceflight 13. Injury from Sunlight Exposure 14. Crew Health Due to Electrical Shock Distance from Earth 1. Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to inflight Medical Conditions 2. Ineffective or Toxic Medications due to Long Term Storage Concerns 1. Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Meds 2. Intervertebral Disc Damage upon & immediately after re-exposure to Gravity
  17. 17. Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space? MARK SHELHAMER, CHIEF SCIENTIST, NASA HUMAN RESEARCH PROGRAM, NASA
  18. 18. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Human Research Program Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space? Perspective of the NASA Human Research Program ISS R & D Conference – 9 July 2015 Mark Shelhamer, Sc.D. Chief Scientist mark.j.shelhamer@nasa.gov
  19. 19. Human Research Program Human Research Program Goal The goal of HRP is to provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration. Seat layout for contingency EVA Example of a study on the effects of center of gravity on performance Clay Anderson centrifuges Nutrition blood samples during Increment 15 19
  20. 20. Human Research Program Destination - MARS 20
  21. 21. Human Research Program 21 Primary Hazards to Humans during Space Flight  Decreased gravity (including gravity transitions & launch/landing loads) bone, muscle, cardiovascular, sensorimotor, nutrition, immunology behavior/performance, human factors, clinical medicine  Isolation/confinement/altered light-dark cycles behavior/performance  Hostile/closed environment (including habitability: atmosphere, microbes, dust, volume/configuration, displays/controls) behavior/performance, nutrition, immunology, toxicology, microbiology  Increased radiation immunology, carcinogenesis, behavior/performance, tissue degeneration, pharmaceutical stability  Distance from Earth behavior/performance, autonomy, food systems, clinical medicine
  22. 22. Human Research Program Space Flight Effects on Humans 22 Image from: http://zerog2002.de/bodyreactions.html • Affects most systems of the body – Sensorimotor, Cardiovascular, Muscle, Bone, Immune • Different time courses and magnitudes • Consequences for health and performance (physical and behavioral) • Responses commonly explored individually • Systems interact in ways we do not yet understand • Adaptation to “space normal” occurs
  23. 23. Human Research Program MagnitudeofDecrement(ArbitraryUnits) Time After Launch (Months) 642 8 10 12 Immune, OSaD, Atherosclerosis VIIP Orthostatic Tolerance Aerobic Capacity Muscle Bone Sensorimotor • Notional view of changes assuming currently known and effective countermeasures used • Dash size reflects uncertainty in trend • Individual variability not shown In-Flight Physiological Changes Acceptable Decrement (based on current standards) trend dynamics unknown
  24. 24. Human Research Program Integrated Path to Risk Reduction 24
  25. 25. Human Research Program Rationale for One-year ISS Missions • No amount of six-month flights will tell us that we can send people to Mars with a reasonable expectation of maintaining health, safety, and performance. – Physiological events with temporal threshold (VIIP) • What are the critical unknowns for such a mission? – How many one-year ISS missions needed to provide some degree of confidence that we are ready for the journey. • Desire to leverage six-month database.
  26. 26. Human Research Program Three Major Areas of Concern • Medical events – Establish likelihood of events with temporal trend – Characterize response with known medical conditions • Physiological deconditioning – Establish efficacy of countermeasures • Behavior & Performance – Characterize trends – Validate countermeasures
  27. 27. Human Research Program Medical Conditions: Integrated Medical Model • Establish model of probabilistic risk assessment for most relevant medical conditions • Conditions with documented or hypothesized incidence or severity variation over time – Behavioral conditions (depression, anxiety, and sleep disturbance) – Visual Impairment / Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) – Kidney stones • Increased urinary calcium load and supersaturation conducive to stone formation. Risk may be higher for a 12 month mission (vs. a 6 month mission). • Incidence of post-flight (within 1 year) kidney stone formation appears higher in long-duration flyers than short duration flyers (3.9% vs. 1.4%). Relevant to post- landing ops.
  28. 28. Human Research Program • Major areas of concern – Bone loss – Aerobic capacity – Muscle deconditioning – Cardiovascular fitness – Sensorimotor function • Assume best-case countermeasure effectiveness – Are effects after one year different from those after six months? • Two-step approach: parallel paths – Establish 6-month norms (controlled, understood) – Determine if 1-year responses are outside of those norms Physiological Risks, Countermeasures
  29. 29. Human Research Program • Behavioral areas susceptible to increased risk over a one year mission: (1) sleep loss, circadian desynchrony, workload and fatigue (2) stress, morale and mood changes (3) cognitive functioning (4) interpersonal conflicts (5) motivational challenges (6) family separation and personal communications • Temporal trend data not available for all of these measures. • Desire realistic environment and population to validate countermeasures. There are correlations between stress, sleep, tiredness, and physical exhaustion that suggest an underlying physiological factor. Even if stress is compensated and does not affect performance, it may produce adverse physiological changes (immune function). Behavioral Health
  30. 30. Human Research Program • ISS Journal entries on conflict by mission quarter Behavioral Concerns Interpersonal Conflicts • ISS Group Interaction Positivity Ratings by mission quarter (244 entries)
  31. 31. Human Research Program Stress Ratings Increased in the 3rd and 4th Quarters on 6-mo ISS Missions (N = 15 astronauts) Dinges et al. Confidential Reaction Self Test data from ISS: ± SE
  32. 32. Human Research Program One-Year Missions and Twins Study • Scott Kelly of NASA and Mikhail Kornienko of Roscosmos launched to the International Space Station on 27 March for a one-year stay, the longest space mission ever assigned to a NASA astronaut • This one-year mission opportunity will show if observed physiological trends continue as before or if we are approaching any “cliffs” that will require new treatments while providing new insights • The Twins Study (Scott and Mark Kelly) is NASA’s first foray into 21st-century omics research and will examine differential effects on homozygous twin astronauts associated with differences in exposure to spaceflight factors • The Twins Study will examine – Genome, telomeres, epigenome – Transcriptome and epitranscriptome – Proteome – Metabolome – Physiology – Cognition – Microbiome 32
  33. 33. Human Research Program Important to exploration missions but not resolved by one-year ISS missions • Radiation effects outside LEO – Deep-space mission post-ISS – Understand and accept the risk • Does time in hypo-gravity halt deterioration – AG and hypo-g research • Autonomous operations – Implement with comm delays on final 1-year mission • Implications of remoteness What We Still Won’t Know
  34. 34. Can Humans Survive 1000 Days in Space? BOB BAGDIGIAN , CHIEF, ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL AND LIFE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT BRANCH, MSFC NASA
  35. 35. EARTH RELIANT
  36. 36. EARTH RELIANT Expendable Filters Replacement Equipment Makeup Consumables Environmental Samples Returned to Earth
  37. 37. PROVING GROUND
  38. 38. PROVING GROUND Environmental Samples Analyzed On-Board Regenerate Filters Repair Equipment Increase Consumables Recovery
  39. 39. MARS READY
  40. 40. MARS READY Consumables From In-Situ Resources Planetary Protection (forward & reverse) Manufacture Equipment Autonomous Environment Monitoring & Control

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