Wind Industry and Gear Boxes


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Wind Industry and Gear Boxes

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Wind Industry and Gear Boxes

  1. 1. Wind Industry and Gear Boxes Uwe Roeper Hamilton Dinner November 17, 2009
  2. 2. ORTECH Power <ul><li>40 staff </li></ul><ul><li>Engineers & Consultants </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Due Diligence / IE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind resources assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plans & Permits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operations Support </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Wind Energy in Canada (2008) Source: CanWEA <ul><li>526 MW added in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>= 2 nd highest year </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity end 2008: 2,372 MW </li></ul><ul><li>= Electricity for over 600,000 homes </li></ul><ul><li>= 1% of Canada’s total demand </li></ul>
  4. 4. Wind Growth in Canada (MW) Source: CanWEA
  5. 5. Wind in Canada (2009 & beyond) <ul><li>Current installed capacity (May 2009) – 2,550 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Project a total of 650 MW to be installed this year (2 nd best year ever), pushing Canada over the 3,000 MW mark </li></ul><ul><li>An additional 5,000 MW of projects are either contracted or under construction </li></ul><ul><li>Provincial government targets, if fully achieved, would result in 12,000 MW of installed capacity in Canada by 2015 </li></ul>Source: CanWEA
  6. 6. Gear Boxes – The Weak Link <ul><li>What is the role of gear boxes in wind turbines? </li></ul><ul><li>Why are they getting so much attention from the wind community? </li></ul><ul><li>How does this relate back to lubrication engineering? </li></ul>Source: CanWEA
  7. 12. Design Issues <ul><li>Gear boxes need to light weight but handle large stresses: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Typical size 2500 HP / 90 m Rotor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Variable speeds & loads </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Torsion from uneven wind loads </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Approaching practical design limits of available materials. </li></ul><ul><li>Constant push for cheaper cost per unit energy. </li></ul>
  8. 13. How are things working out? <ul><li>Underperformance has been a key topic at AWEA and CanWEA over past 2 years. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Typical underperformance of 10% based on major investigations of existing farms: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>59 facilities / 243 years = 11% below P50 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>41 facilities / 113 years = 90% of P50 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Range 80% to 105% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Financial significance on affected projects is high. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Senior Lenders: reduced DSCR, increased risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Equity: very large reduction in cash flow </li></ul></ul>
  9. 15. IRR=11% IRR=6% IRR= -(1)% MW=100, P=$89/MWh, L=70%, I=7%, CF=34.1%, CapEx=2.4,OpEx=16%, Term=20, TV=0
  10. 16. Potential Causes <ul><li>Over prediction of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mechanical Availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(including due to gear boxes) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  11. 17. 1. Understand Wind related factors
  12. 18. 2. Unterstand efficiency factors Wind Speed, m/s Power Output, kW 10-min averages Yaw mis-alignment correct rotor plane positive negative wind speed vector g F top view +
  13. 19. 3. Understand mechanical factors
  14. 20. Example
  15. 21. Understand Parts Life Cycles <ul><li>While unscheduled minor maintenance is expected to remain fairly constant, major repair will occur in intervals and increase in cost with age. </li></ul><ul><li>Outages will generally increase along with major repairs. </li></ul>
  16. 22. Manage Life Cycle Cost <ul><li>20-year life cycle costs for repair and outages can vary from under $0.4 mill/WTG (pro-active mtc.) to over $1 mill/WTG (reactive mtc.). High mechanical loads (turbulence, ice, defects) can further increase cost (up to $2 mill/WTG in extreme cases). </li></ul>
  17. 23. Prevention Strategies? <ul><li>Early detection </li></ul><ul><li>Preventative maintenance </li></ul>
  18. 24. For gear boxes early detection is key  Most wind farms have an inadequate preventative maintenance program, parts inventory and supply chain.
  19. 25. Use Condition Monitoring  AFTER BEFORE
  20. 26. Utilize Inspection Tools
  21. 27. Other Prevention Strategies? <ul><li>Improve design. </li></ul><ul><li>Manage mechanical loads. </li></ul><ul><li>Improve … lubrication? </li></ul>
  22. 28. Wind & Gear Boxes <ul><li>Rapid growth in wind is creating engineering challenges for mechanical design and life cycle expectations. </li></ul><ul><li>Gear box failures are central to the life cycle economics of wind farms. </li></ul><ul><li>More can be done to improve life expectancy on this key component. </li></ul>