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Fundstrat Bitcoin & Blockchain presentation for Upfront Summit

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An equity analyst case for the value in cryptocurrencies. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat was lead equity researcher for JP Morgan before founding Fundstrat. He takes a market approach to valuing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Here is his presentation for the #UpfrontSummit 2018.

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Fundstrat Bitcoin & Blockchain presentation for Upfront Summit

  1. Fundstrat Global Advisors 150 East 52nd St, 31st floor | New York, NY 10022 Bitcoin and Blockchain Trust, Millennials and Wall Street For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see Disclosures, Slide 54. Thomas J. Lee, CFA AC Head of Research thomas@fundstrat.com twitter: @fundstrat Robert Sluymer, CFAAC Head of Technical Strategy robert.sluymer@fundstrat.com twitter: @rsluymer Sam DoctorAC Head of Data Science Research sam.doctor@fundstrat.com twitter: @fundstratQuant L. Thomas Block Policy Strategist tom.block@fundstrat.com twitter: @TomBlock_FS Strategy Research Portfolio Strategy Quantitative Strategy Technical Strategy Washington & Policy Strategy Sales John Bai Head of Sales john@fundstrat.com Bill Vasilakos bill.vasilakos@fundstrat.com Tzu-Wen Chen tzuwen.chen@fundstrat.com Thomas J. Lee, CFA AC Robert Sluymer, CFAAC Sam DoctorAC Ken Xuan www.Fundstrat.com | Bloomberg: FSGA <<GO>> Crypto Currency Strategy Performance 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 QTD YTD Bitcoin (28%) – – (28%) (28%) FS CryptoFX 10 (28%) – – (28%) (28%) FS CryptoFX 40 (20%) – – (20%) (20%) FS CryptoFX 250 (9%) – – (9%) (9%) FS CryptoFX 300 (26%) – – (26%) (26%) FS CryptoFX Agg. (26%) – – (26%) (26%)
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  3. Slide 3 Overview Digital Trust Millennials driving change Crypto is an asset class Why Wall Street will care
  4. Slide 4 Figure: Trust in U.S. Government at 60-year lows % who trust the US government in Washington always or most of the time Trust in U.S. government at 60-year lows… Source: Pew Research Center. Fundstrat, Bloomberg
  5. Slide 5 Figure: Few countries see their citizens trust their government Question is what % “Trust the national government to do what is right for our country” Outside the US, trust in governments is even worse… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg U.S. Few countries score better than the U.S., in terms of trust by their citizens... …Note the prevalence of Asian and Latin American nations with low trust ratings…
  6. Slide 6 Blockchain and bitcoin growing faster outside the US Bitcoin and blockchain are attractive outside the US because of the inherent structures of those regions. • Regions with unstable financial systems or governance make bitcoin more attractive. • Regions with currency controls or strict regulations. • Regions with uncertain economic or financial outlook. • Hence, we see bitcoin and blockchain adoption as a global story.
  7. Slide 7 Earlier in 2016, Facebook IQ, a team of researchers, scientists and analysts funded and supported by Facebook Inc., published a white paper entitled “Millennials + money: The unfiltered journey” to evaluate the beliefs and thoughts of today’s youth on traditional banking and financial systems. The paper found that 92 percent of millennials firmly expressed their distrust of banks. 92 Percent of Millennials Don’t Trust Banks
  8. Slide 8 Blockchain enables digital money to exist with trust… Paper money Credit card / Electronic Digital money Blockchain Double spend… Fraud… Printing press… 51% protection…
  9. Slide 9 Figure: Examples of fractionalization to digital asset tokenization Not a complete list Asset tokenization is an evolution of fractionalization…. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg 2008: Airbnb Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia came up with the idea of putting an air mattress in their living room and turning it into a bed and breakfast. 2009: Uber Founded ias UberCab by Garrett Camp, the cofounder of StumbleUpon, and Travis Kalanick. 2009: Kickstarter Kickstarter launched on April 28, 2009, by Perry Chen, Yancey Strickler, and Charles Adler. 1972: Frequent Flyer Miles the very first modern frequent-flyer program was created in 1972 by Western Direct Marketing, for United Airlines. 1970: Mortgage Securitization The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development created the first mortgage-backed security. Ginnie Mae mortgage loans. 1969:Time-shares The first non-hotel timeshare in the US was the Kaua`i Kailani, started in Kauai, Hawaii in 1969 by the people who later founded Vacation Internationale. 1987: Netjets fractional jet ownership In 1987, the NetJets program was officially announced becoming the first fractional aircraft ownership format in history. 2017: Venezuelan Oil Venezuela plans to issue a crypto currency backed by oil
  10. Slide 10 Figure: Illustrative example of a token for a social media company Simply a concept, please do not judge this to be a business plan Would Facebook be an ICO today? Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Customer Operations Capital Structure Posts engaging content user Adds other users Speculate on user growth Equity (FB owns 33% tokens) Speculate on monetization token
  11. Slide 11 Figure: Illustrative example of a token for a digital based business Simply a concept, please do not judge this to be a business plan Should Amazon issue a token? Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Customer Operations Capital Structure Purchases goods customer Writes engaging reviews Speculate on user growth Equity (AMZN owns 33% tokens) Speculate on spending token
  12. Slide 12 Risks • Mining conglomerates becomes too powerful and essentially takeover the blockchain. • Millennials decide they like gold and allocate away from risky assets. • A major blockchain is hacked by a nation-state. • Governments decide they have to destroy blockchain. • Citizens decide they trust governments and banks. • Quantum computers hack encryption. • Humor: A crypto-expose is featured on 60 minutes
  13. Slide 13 Overview Digital Trust Millennials driving change Crypto is an asset class Why Wall Street will care
  14. Slide 14 Figure: Comparative size of generations Population in millions Millennials are largest population cohort ever Source: Fundstrat, Census Bureau. Note, the population of each cohort exceeds the total births due to immigration. 43.2 44.1 79.5 65.8 95.8 Peak size of generation (includes immigration)Generation Year of peak Peak size As % Pop # in cohort As % Pop Avg age Greatest Generation 1910 1927 1930 43.2 35% 2.6 1% 92.9 Silent Generation 1928 1945 1974 44.1 21% 25.8 8% 78.5 Baby Boomers 1946 1964 1999 79.5 28% 73.8 23% 61.3 GenX 1965 1980 2018 65.8 20% 65.8 20% 44.5 Millenials 1981 2000 2038 95.8 25% 89.2 27% 26.5 Years of birth Statistics @ 2017 Generation Year of peak Peak size As % Pop # in cohort As % Pop Avg age eatest Generation 1910 1927 1930 43.2 35% 2.6 1% 92.9 ent Generation 1928 1945 1974 44.1 21% 25.8 8% 78.5 by Boomers 1946 1964 1999 79.5 28% 73.8 23% 61.3 enX 1965 1980 2018 65.8 20% 65.8 20% 44.5 llenials 1981 2000 2038 95.8 25% 89.2 27% 26.5 Years of birth Statistics @ 2017 Greatest Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials
  15. Slide 15 Figure: What did each generation look like in their 20s Fundsdtrat and public information Demographics: Looking at the world through the eyes of a millennial… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
  16. Slide 16 Each generation sees innovations… its mostly digital today Source: Fundstrat Figure: Innovations seen when each generation was in their 20s General sources. Wired magazine. Each generation is also characterized by innovations that differentiate that generation from prior generations. • As shown below, what differentiates the millennial experience (in their 20s) is the growth of social media and digital businesses. Notably, we believe blockchain is the newest innovation. Baby Boomers in their 20s 1970s-1980s GenX in their 20s 1990s-2000s Millennials in their 20s 2000s-now Woman entering workforce Mail order business PCs/Apple Microsoft/GUIs GPS Game consoles Mobile phones Laserdisc/CDs email WWW/ e-commerce Digital Cellular Mobile email Mobile data Text messaging Google Paypal Video Games Digital photography MP3 Facebook Uber Airbnb Instagram Kickstarter Digital video streaming Blockchain/Bitcoin Electric cars Online dating Disruptive and misunderstood by prior generation Disruptive and misunderstood by prior generation
  17. Slide 17 Figure: Topix vs S&P 500 Boomers: By 1975, many would have said Japan stock bubble peaked… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Baby Boomers 40X rise from 1950 to 1972
  18. Slide 18 Figure: Topix vs S&P 500 Boomers: Good thing “bosom buddies” didn’t listen to bubble talk… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Baby Boomers 400X rise from 1950 to 1990 40X rise from 1950 to 1972
  19. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Updata Slide 19 Figure: Life cycle of Millennial spending and income Survey of Consumer Finance for 2017 “real income” levels (born between 1981-2000) Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Census Bureau Millennials average age is 26.5… still early in life cycle The oldest millennials are 36 but the average age is 26.5. As shown below, this means the peak of millennials are driving the automobile market but just beginning to impact the housing market. And early in the investing market. • As the following slides show, millennials are now the most important cohort to follow for several key segments. $15,080 $21,684 $27,924 $40,456 $50,440 $49,556 $51,324 $48,932 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 Averageannualearnings Age of Millennial Age 21-35 Automobile + Drinking age Age 25-45 Home purchasing Age 30-60 Prime Income years 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058 Millennials Average Age today
  20. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Updata Slide 20 Figure: Composition of Generations by age group Census bureau Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Census bureau Millennials maturing autos, peak homebuying and early prime income To highlight the life cycle of various generations, we have highlighted population distribution and shown the various generations and their respective distribution. Additionally, we shaded the various life cycle behaviors (auto buying, etc.). • Millennials are now dominating Automobile purchasing, entering homebuying and beginning to generate prime income. 8.9 22.1 20.1 16.9 5.8 2017 12.6 19.7 21.0 12.6 2017 12.8 22.2 23.5 22.0 8.7 2017 20.2 20.3 20.7 12.6 2017 20.2 20.3 20.7 21.1 22.2 23.5 22.0 21.3 19.7 21.0 21.4 22.1 20.1 16.9 12.9 8.8 6.0 3.9 1.9 0.6 Age 0 ~ 4 Age 5 ~ 9 Age 10 ~ 14 Age 15 ~ 19 Age 20 ~ 24 Age 25 ~ 29 Age 30 ~ 34 Age 35 ~ 39 Age 40 ~ 44 Age 45 ~ 49 Age 50 ~ 54 Age 55 ~ 59 Age 60 ~ 64 Age 65 ~ 69 Age 70 ~ 74 Age 75 ~ 79 Age 80 ~ 84 Age 85 ~ 89 Age 90 ~ 94 Age 95 ~ 99 Age 100 ~ 104 2017 GenerationZBoomers GenX Millennials 1st time Car buyer (21-35) 1st time homebuyer (25-49) Prime income (30-64) Retirement years (65+) Peak per capita Healthcare costs (75+)
  21. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Updata Slide 21 Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Factset Housing follow generations and implies peak starts 2029 or so… We believe the prime market for homebuyers is age 25-45 and as shown below, this cohort size seems to explain housing cycles. • If precedent generations are a template, housing starts should rise through 2029 towards 2.5 million starts. 1973 1989 2010 2026 1.0 11.0 21.0 31.0 41.0 51.0 61.0 71.0 81.0 91.0 101.0 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 #age25-45(millions) Silent Generation: 1929-1945 Baby boomers: 1946-1964 GenX: 1965-1980 Millennials: 1981-2000 Millennials only now starting to buy homes and should boost the market past 2026… BULLISH Housing SAAR Figure: Housing starts and comparative size of generations age 25-45. Starts reported in thousands. Since 1960
  22. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Updata Slide 22 Figure: Composition of Generations by age group Census bureau Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Census bureau Millennials are just entering their prime income years Of the 96 million millennials, about 30 million are just entering their prime income years. • Thus, the key question from an investment perspective is how the millennials will impact the investment market in the coming decades. After all, each generation seemed to prefer a different investment product. 8.9 22.1 20.1 16.9 5.8 2017 12.6 19.7 21.0 12.6 2017 12.8 22.2 23.5 22.0 8.7 2017 20.2 20.3 20.7 12.6 2017 20.2 20.3 20.7 21.1 22.2 23.5 22.0 21.3 19.7 21.0 21.4 22.1 20.1 16.9 12.9 8.8 6.0 3.9 1.9 0.6 Age 0 ~ 4 Age 5 ~ 9 Age 10 ~ 14 Age 15 ~ 19 Age 20 ~ 24 Age 25 ~ 29 Age 30 ~ 34 Age 35 ~ 39 Age 40 ~ 44 Age 45 ~ 49 Age 50 ~ 54 Age 55 ~ 59 Age 60 ~ 64 Age 65 ~ 69 Age 70 ~ 74 Age 75 ~ 79 Age 80 ~ 84 Age 85 ~ 89 Age 90 ~ 94 Age 95 ~ 99 Age 100 ~ 104 2017 GenerationZBoomers GenX Millennials Prime income (30-64) About 30 million of the 96 million millennials are entering their prime income years… Hence, they will be sizable contributors to the change in the investing landscape…
  23. Slide 23 Silent Generation bought gold… Millennials aren’t buying Gold… Gold As shown below, the Silent Generation was in their prime income years. The USD moved off the gold standard in 1971. • As shown, this surge in gold and coincident generational prime income of “Silent Generation” means this generation is the key cohort of “gold bugs”. Figure: Comparative Gold prices and the prime income years of various generations Census bureau USD off gold standard August 15, 1971 China demand + Financial crisis 1962 1980 1999 2018 2036 1.0 11.0 21.0 31.0 41.0 51.0 61.0 71.0 81.0 91.0 101.0 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 #Americans Prime income years (age 35-60)--Greatest generation (1910-1927) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Silent Generation (1928-1945) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Boomers (1946-1964) Prime income years (age 35-60)--GenX (1965-1980) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Millenials (1981-2000)
  24. 1962 1980 1999 2018 2036 1.0 11.0 21.0 31.0 41.0 51.0 61.0 71.0 81.0 91.0 101.0 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 #Americans Prime income years (age 35-60)--Greatest generation (1910-1927) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Silent Generation (1928-1945) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Boomers (1946-1964) Prime income years (age 35-60)--GenX (1965-1980) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Millenials (1981-2000) Slide 24 Boomers bought equities… millennials like “Growth stocks” S&P 500 The Baby boomers prime income years stretched from 1982 and peaked in 1999. • Baby boomers prime income years stretched from 1982 and peaked in 1999, coinciding with equity market peak. Boomers prime income years 1982-1999 Figure: Comparative S&P 500 prices and the prime income years of various generations Census bureau We believe Millennials like equities, and seems like they favor “Growth” stocks and digital-based companies…
  25. 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 #ofAmericans Prime income years (age 35-60)-- Silent Generation Prime income years (age 35-60)-- Boomer Prime income years (age 35-60)-- Gen-X Prime income years (age 35-60)-- Millenial Slide 25 GenX really liked Hedge funds… The prime years for hedge funds (based on number) was 1990s to 2007. Since then, the number of funds has been declining. • The hedge fund industry is evolving and those with deep fundamental or a unique advantage will likely appeal to millennials.. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Dec'45 Jul'48 Feb'51 Sep'53 Apr'56 Nov'58 Jun'61 Jan'64 Aug'66 Mar'69 Oct'71 May'74 Dec'76 Jul'79 Feb'82 Sep'84 Apr'87 Nov'89 Jun'92 Jan'95 Aug'97 Mar'00 Oct'02 May'05 Dec'07 Jul'10 Feb'13 Sep'15 Apr'18 # Hedge funds (worldwide) Figure: Comparative number of Hedge funds and the prime income years of various generations Morningstar Not entirely clear… Prime years were 1999 to 2007, coinciding with GenX
  26. 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 2010 2012 2014 2016 1980 1999 2018 2036 1.0 11.0 21.0 31.0 41.0 51.0 61.0 71.0 81.0 91.0 101.0 #Americans Prime income years (age 35-60)--Greatest generation (1910-1927) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Silent Generation (1928-1945) Prime income years (age 35-60)--Boomers (1946-1964) Prime income years (age 35-60)--GenX (1965-1980) Slide 26 Millennials LOVE Bitcoin and Blockchain Figure: Fundstrat FS CryptoFX 300 Index Morningstar $100k $1M $10M
  27. Slide 27 Overview Digital Trust Millennials driving change Crypto is an asset class Why Wall Street will care
  28. Slide 28 Regulation: St Louis Fed is constructive on bitcoin and blockchain… Source: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2018/01/10/a-short-introduction-to-the-world-of-cryptocurrencies.pdf Figure: Abstract St Louis Fed Published January 10, 2018 The St Louis Fed even sees bitcoin as a useful crypto-currency
  29. Textbook 30-yrs ago… Reality today… IPOs Only profitable Technology companies go public… % profitable at IPO 1980-1995 average 92% 1999-2000 2013-2017 average 20% Private Equity Public equity is larger than the private market… # private equity companies as percent of Wilshire 5000 2000: 32% 2016: 84% Bonds Bonds are income instruments… % bonds with negative rates (G7, ex-US) 2000: 0% 2017: 80% Central Banks Central banks only own bonds and risk-free assets… BoJ ownership of Topix 2002: 0% 2015: 2.5% Slide 29 Finance 101 books 30-yrs ago not true anymore… will evolve for crypto… Figure: Comparative changes in approach to valuations Fundstrat estimates. We believe crypto and blockchain valuations will lead to an evolution in thinking about market valuations for tokens. While these are not traditional equities, there are elements available to create a valuation approach. • Investors seem to be dismissive of the value of tokens, because of the apparent blurriness of token governance versus equity (like a tracking stock) and the unclear position within a capital structure. • But as highlighted below, while fundamental valuation remains central to any approach, markets have evolved their approach to valuations of assets. https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/2018/01/IPOs2017Statistics-1.pdf https://www.toptal.com/finance/private-equity-consultants/private-equity-industry
  30. Slide 30 Digital Store of Value addresses $280T market… 20-yr CAGR Value ($ billions) % Total Gold Estimate Fundstrat 5.0 $9,000 3 Collectible Art https://www2.deloitte.com/lu/en/pages/ art-finance/articles/art-finance- report.html 3.0 $17,000 6 Real Estate http://www.mcguire.com/blog/2017/04/ savills-world-worth/ 5.0 $228,000 82 Government bonds (neg rate) Deutsche Bank -0.5 * $20,000 7 Cars, collectibles Estimate Fundstrat 7.0 $5,000 2 Global stores of value $280,000 100 Bitcoin n/a $200 0.1 Figure: Comparative Store of Value $ Billions. % * Average interest rate of negative rate government bonds % % %
  31. Slide 31 Figure: Annual World Gold Production Units in metric tons. Thru 2015. From US Geological Survey Gold supply growth is ~3%... Will be higher than bitcoin in a few years… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg 3,100 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Jan '21 Sep '32 May '44 Jan '56 Sep '67 May '79 Jan '91 Sep '02 May '14 Annualworldgoldproduction (metrictons,1000kg) 2.7% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Jan '21 Sep '32 May '44 Jan '56 Sep '67 May '79 Jan '91 Sep '02 May '14 10-yrCAGRAnnualProduction 10-yr CAGR of Gold production surged to 2.7%... Annual production exceeded 3,100 metric tons Surged in past 7 years.. 100-yr avg: 1.9%
  32. Dec '35 $35 Feb '75 $184 Jan '80 $684 Dec '87 $493 Sep '11 $1,789 Jul '17 $1,223 Dec '35 1157% Feb '75 773% Jan '80 1879% Dec '87 817% Sep '11 956% Jul '17 481% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400% 1600% 1800% 2000% Jan '21 Apr '27 Jul '33 Oct '39 Jan '46 Apr '52 Jul '58 Oct '64 Jan '71 Apr '77 Jul '83 Oct '89 Jan '96 Apr '02 Jul '08 Oct '14 Jan '21 Goldoutstandingas% USDincirculation Slide 32 Figure: Gold price and gold value outstanding as % USD in circulation Gold price is shown as $ per troy oz. Ratio of Gold value to USD is percent. Since 1921 Gold a buy when value as % circulation <300%... a sell >750% Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Gold Spot price ($/troy oz) Gold overvalued >750% Gold under- valued <300% 1934 Gold Reserve Act passed: Private ownership prohibited 1971 gold standard abandoned: USD no longer pegged to gold
  33. Slide 33 Figure: Comparative value of Intangibles as % total EV Based on Bloomberg data Intangibles (including brand) essentially 91% FANG value… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg EV Tangible Assets Intangible value estimates Ticker Company Enterprise Value PP&E Prepaid expenses Deferred Tax Assets LT Assets Current Assets ex- Cash Intangible Value Intangible as % EV FB Facebook Inc-A $485,860 $8,591 $1,312 $4,952 $471,005 97% AMZN Amazon.Com Inc $642,703 $29,114 $3,869 $19,800 $589,920 92% AAPL Apple Inc $738,444 $33,783 $8,974 $1,188 $54,464 $640,035 87% NFLX Netflix Inc $97,807 $250 $227 $7,389 $3,987 $85,954 88% NVDA Nvidia Corp $130,831 $521 $62 $1,738 $128,510 98% GOOG Alphabet Inc-Cl C $674,371 $34,234 $1,819 $383 $0 $19,075 $618,860 92% TSLA Tesla Inc $64,871 $5,983 $9,539 $2,867 $46,483 72% FAANNG Composite $2,834,887 $112,476 $1,819 $9,584 $23,359 $106,882 $2,580,767 91% S&P 500 $28,618,706 $4,541,372 $4,556 $359,580 $1,140,730 $3,988,148 $22,017,705 77%
  34. Slide 34 Figure: General categories of tokens Per Fundstrat Store of Value still best. Is 2018 the year we see growth in tokenization? Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Store of Value Digital Currency Utility Security tokens Purpose Digital Gold Currency Pay for services Fractional exposure A store of value is the function of an asset that can be saved, retrieved and useful when retrieved. More generally, a store of value is anything that retains purchasing power into the future. Digital currencies use encryption to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds, independently of a central bank. The utility tokens are services or units of services that can be purchased, similar to API keys, used to access the service. These fund projects of shared infrastructure. Tokens are representing shares of a business. The SEC considers these a security and fall under the 1934 Security Exchange Act. Appreciation potential Yes Yes Yes Yes Decentralized or not? Blockchain Blockchain mostly Mixed Mixed Representative Tokens Bitcoin Ethereum classic Ethereum Neo Qtum Bitcoin Cash Zcash Monero Dash Telegram (GRAM) Powerledger SingularityNET FunFair Paragon STEEM KWHcoin Filecoin Tron Tether Basecoin LAToken Goldmint (MNT) Jibrel Networks (JNT)
  35. High-net worth families allocate $1.6T to Art… Per PrivateInvestor.com Art cannot be compared to traditional assets such as equities, bonds or even commodities. The access to information is restricted for the layman, liquidity is often constrained, holding costs are comparatively high and even through there are techniques to analyze the market, the value of an artwork is ultimately driven by a large variety of parameters, part of those being extremely difficult to predict. If family offices own about 10%-15% of all collectible art, this implies that the aggregate value of Art as a store of value is $11 to $17 Trillion. http://www.privateartinvestor.com/art-business/art-collecting-as-a-means-to-store-value/ https://www2.deloitte.com/lu/en/pages/art-finance/articles/art-finance-report.html Figure: Estimated Family Office allocation to Art From Deloitte Art Report 2017
  36. 3.0% -20% 0% 20% 20-yr CAGR Slide 36 Art has appreciated at 3% gross 20-year CAGR… 0 1 4 16 64 256 1,024 4,096 16,384 1875 1879 1883 1887 1891 1895 1899 1903 1907 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 Mei Moses/ Artprice.comFigure: Art Price performance since 1875 1875 to 2002 is Mei Moses. From 2002 to now is Artprice.com. 100=1875 Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Art has essentially been flat past 20-years… Flat Flat We have shown the price performance of art from 1875 to today, concatenating the Mei Moses art index (acquired by Sotheby’s) with a more modern series developed by artprice.com. • While there was a period of tremendous appreciation from 1950 to 1987, Art since then, has performed a lot less spectacularly—in fact, in the past 20 years, the CAGR was 3%. Art storage has high maintenance cost (see prior page) and there is also survivorship bias (does not track destroyed art)—hence, future durability of Art as a store of value to outperform the last 20-years is not clear.
  37. Slide 37 Figure: Key variables in valuing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies $ trillions, except bitcoin value Framework for bitcoin: ~$125,000 per unit by 2022 We have created a framework for valuing bitcoin, based on the assumptions outlined below: • In short, we looked at the projected growth of money supply (M0) and a forecast for the ratio of the alternative currencies to M0 (gold historically is the bulk of this value). And then allocated a share to bitcoin. Under this forecast, we see bitcoin rising to $125,000 by 2022. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg M0, or cash assets, including currency and is called narrow money Money supply growth Ratio of alternatives, including gold to M0. Ratio alternative currency to M0 Bitcoin share of alternative currency. 5- year projection Bitcoin share of alternative 1. 2. 3.x x = Based on 21mm maximum units (fully diluted) Bitcoin value Value $1.55TCurrent: 487% ~3.5% ~$15,000 $2.2T2022E: 600% ~20.0% ~$125,000 1921-2017 Average: 7.0% 554%
  38. Slide 38 Figure: Alt-coins surged since December Based on the liquid universe of alt-coins. 57 in 2014. 250 in 2015. 400 in 2016. >700 in 2017. 2017 was an exceptionally good year for alt-tokens and 2018 so far… Below we have calculated the percentage of alt-tokens that have risen by at least 200% in the past 90-days—and since 2014, this has been a surprisingly cyclical series. • In 2015 and 2016, the peak of the alt-coin rallies was 28% of tokens rising 200% in a rolling 3M period. In 2017, this figure peaked at 81% in mid-2017 and in early-2018, this is hovering at 78% and approaching the 2017 highs. • Not surprisingly, when alt-coins are selling off, this is bullish for bitcoin/ETH. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg 28.0% 29.6% 80.6% 77.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% %Coins(liquiduniverse) % of coin with over 200% 90-day trailing return Alt-coin rotation peak Alt-coin rotation peak Alt-coin rotation peak
  39. Figure: Correlation Matrix (%) Based on the daily return of last 90 days Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat. Cross Token Correlation Matrix Slide 39 Bitcoin Ethereum Ripple Litecoin Dash IOTA Monero NEO EthereumClassic Zcash NEM BitConnect Lisk Waves Stratis Steem Ark Bytecoin BasicAttenti... Augur MaidSafeCoin Golem StellarLumens BitShares Komodo Decred Ardor PIVX Factom Veritaseum GameCredits Siacoin Gnosis Iconomi ByteballBytes DigiByte Dogecoin MCAP Status Bancor Verge Syscoin Nxt Edgeless Ubiq NAVCoin Rise Vertcoin FirstBlood Triggers Bitcoin 100 38 22 55 1 25 37 21 28 24 32 92 24 47 41 55 12 59 24 24 28 30 21 30 47 22 44 16 16 33 26 24 24 23 29 29 51 37 28 35 39 26 54 7 13 33 21 10 17 2 Ethereum 100 59 71 35 33 57 52 66 64 75 43 63 59 60 40 48 49 45 72 67 57 29 51 53 55 46 52 68 35 53 53 67 68 45 60 52 20 45 93 41 40 37 26 45 38 42 34 48 23 Ripple 100 60 14 38 49 36 59 50 56 23 44 42 45 19 28 31 43 48 52 42 32 42 36 22 40 48 52 24 36 37 37 42 24 46 45 12 47 53 20 35 20 20 46 12 19 20 34 11 Litecoin 100 27 37 54 41 63 56 69 57 60 50 50 34 41 54 56 60 60 51 30 50 50 37 54 50 59 32 53 51 46 48 44 56 63 25 55 65 30 56 40 27 50 39 29 26 45 22 Dash 100 12 35 21 4 48 26 (5) 25 9 14 9 1 4 9 29 32 20 1 17 9 21 8 10 20 10 18 11 4 25 14 6 10 1 14 25 (2) 21 7 13 19 9 10 9 8 7 IOTA 100 62 28 50 42 54 18 55 50 57 32 42 40 45 44 51 47 44 54 41 19 41 43 48 38 33 50 34 41 31 59 46 34 42 39 30 30 26 30 57 38 37 13 46 14 Monero 100 39 59 57 65 33 52 59 56 40 41 51 47 56 70 49 42 45 39 33 44 41 63 42 34 41 42 53 33 43 57 14 42 55 25 46 37 23 56 46 30 29 38 10 NEO 100 37 48 51 26 50 49 51 32 44 32 38 49 53 45 28 47 47 42 49 39 48 27 56 49 38 36 47 55 41 12 33 53 43 39 27 39 49 36 38 25 51 15 Ethereum Classic 100 50 61 29 48 46 58 32 40 37 38 56 51 50 37 49 40 36 38 52 65 27 41 43 49 54 27 55 47 7 53 61 32 32 30 20 46 26 28 20 47 16 Zcash 100 57 26 51 47 46 26 36 32 39 62 51 53 34 49 35 35 40 41 57 19 41 39 52 54 43 49 45 23 42 56 25 30 23 23 51 30 22 18 44 14 NEM 100 36 75 67 64 35 57 52 63 73 77 67 47 53 58 45 52 65 73 45 62 65 59 60 47 73 57 18 59 73 43 59 37 33 70 52 38 49 62 24 BitConnect 100 33 48 40 56 20 61 34 31 31 33 20 30 51 27 46 18 22 34 30 26 32 28 37 34 48 34 31 44 39 31 47 16 15 36 24 15 24 4 Lisk 100 62 57 29 60 41 57 57 69 60 34 47 52 39 43 57 67 46 68 51 51 52 46 58 45 28 49 66 43 52 24 38 62 55 40 41 65 33 Waves 100 65 44 53 48 49 49 59 49 48 44 55 38 50 46 56 41 53 49 46 57 51 64 51 24 45 60 50 48 47 27 52 54 29 40 49 23 Stratis 100 61 41 53 40 59 67 60 42 49 65 56 47 55 59 35 58 59 47 52 48 65 53 27 53 60 47 50 49 37 54 44 33 28 54 34 Steem 100 25 59 24 39 38 34 16 29 63 38 49 27 32 41 29 44 26 32 27 33 39 19 25 43 46 28 62 29 24 30 19 21 29 6 Ark 100 42 47 52 49 41 28 37 44 42 49 54 62 38 38 49 43 43 44 57 32 13 32 52 42 44 28 42 48 42 39 28 50 30 Bytecoin 100 39 52 55 45 32 46 55 40 51 35 47 48 41 56 38 39 49 50 70 31 44 59 38 36 49 31 38 42 43 26 46 17 Basic Attenti... 100 49 57 58 41 37 54 42 52 48 46 50 49 49 46 41 41 57 48 18 38 49 38 59 24 53 66 49 37 33 51 25 Augur 100 69 62 30 46 48 52 55 61 68 30 51 66 64 65 52 63 56 24 46 72 38 44 41 40 55 36 47 32 58 22 MaidSafeCoin 100 67 42 55 52 48 47 61 60 42 59 55 51 49 48 61 52 22 56 69 44 56 33 40 68 50 55 42 58 18 Golem 100 40 48 56 51 52 48 49 34 52 60 53 48 64 62 48 27 59 56 38 50 35 39 72 42 48 35 61 22 Stellar Lumens 100 45 23 20 29 31 37 21 26 37 37 28 25 50 39 17 36 30 20 37 26 14 39 20 13 33 33 7 BitShares 100 41 23 44 27 49 19 39 54 36 37 45 62 52 15 56 52 43 25 38 17 50 28 54 17 53 27 Komodo 100 52 60 45 51 42 55 53 36 37 47 54 50 37 44 55 55 44 49 42 52 54 35 23 55 22 Decred 100 35 39 51 28 43 43 44 47 46 47 38 24 25 59 42 38 24 53 44 38 34 32 39 41 Ardor 100 48 38 33 39 56 37 33 47 50 47 24 45 44 39 48 62 33 53 38 36 25 42 16 PIVX 100 54 37 50 49 41 46 30 46 40 13 49 51 36 47 32 38 55 38 28 42 48 24 Factom 100 32 57 60 51 69 40 65 55 17 46 70 41 44 24 35 58 46 36 35 54 29 Veritaseum 100 29 23 37 28 21 29 27 22 18 40 28 30 25 28 37 39 27 28 36 12 GameCredits 100 53 38 43 36 55 57 25 50 57 45 47 25 33 51 41 36 29 57 33 Siacoin 100 40 50 48 73 63 24 51 54 43 40 44 43 49 29 44 23 60 22 Gnosis 100 55 38 57 37 21 35 70 28 27 29 30 48 40 29 31 44 11 Iconomi 100 38 54 50 15 42 67 35 37 21 29 43 32 32 27 42 21 Byteball Bytes 100 59 45 17 34 50 29 36 19 36 50 41 40 21 52 21 DigiByte 100 58 26 53 63 52 46 36 43 57 43 48 32 65 25 Dogecoin 100 23 47 53 33 41 35 28 45 30 36 16 45 15 MCAP 100 23 20 19 6 23 22 18 18 18 5 15 10 Status 100 46 36 33 38 21 58 32 42 34 52 25 Bancor 100 46 39 31 33 48 44 51 38 52 24 Verge 100 23 38 29 40 43 55 33 42 29 Syscoin 100 30 39 49 42 23 43 42 24 Nxt 100 21 26 27 18 18 27 13 Edgeless 100 40 42 37 19 48 40 Ubiq 100 53 39 41 55 28 NAV Coin 100 27 39 45 34 Rise 100 18 45 29 Vertcoin 100 32 15 FirstBlood 100 49 Triggers 100
  40. How to read this: the “Highest/Lowest Win Ratio” based on past 90-day daily return. High Win Ratio means the cryptocurrency more positive return days How to read this: Upside less Downside vol is calculated by using the volatility of daily returns on up days minus the volatility of daily returns on down days over the past 90 days. Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat. FS CryptoFX 10 and 40 members ranked by Win Ratio and Upside less Downside Vol Rank Win Ratio 90 Day % Rank Win Ratio 90 Day % 1 Bitcoin 61 254 26 Ethereum Classic 49 73 2 BitConnect 57 194 27 Veritaseum 48 49 3 FirstBlood 57 (2) 28 Monero 48 116 4 Dogecoin 57 54 29 Nxt 48 596 5 Ardor 56 274 30 Siacoin 48 32 6 Litecoin 56 50 31 Decred 47 53 7 IOTA 53 638 32 Bancor 47 7 8 Komodo 53 0 33 PIVX 47 26 9 Stratis 53 43 34 Dash 47 122 10 Zcash 52 49 35 NEO 47 46 11 Ripple 52 16 36 GameCredits 47 (3) 12 Bytecoin 52 39 37 Steem 47 23 13 Vertcoin 52 864 38 Basic Attenti... 47 (16) 14 Rise 52 10 39 Ubiq 47 (12) 15 Ethereum 51 53 40 Gnosis 47 (26) 16 Augur 51 18 41 Factom 47 (21) 17 Ark 51 49 42 Byteball Bytes 46 (27) 18 Status 51 75 43 MaidSafeCoin 46 (24) 19 Stellar Lumens 51 657 44 Edgeless 46 73 20 BitShares 51 56 45 MCAP 46 (39) 21 Waves 50 75 46 NEM 44 (13) 22 Verge 50 17 47 Golem 44 (22) 23 DigiByte 50 (15) 48 Syscoin 44 24 24 NAV Coin 50 18 49 Iconomi 43 (28) 25 Lisk 49 17 50 Triggers 43 (23) Rank UV less DV 90 Day % Rank UV less DV 90 Day % 1 Triggers 219 (23) 26 Ark 21 49 2 Stellar Lumens 170 657 27 Stratis 20 43 3 MCAP 145 (39) 28 Byteball Bytes 18 (27) 4 IOTA 138 638 29 MaidSafeCoin 17 (24) 5 Nxt 137 596 30 Zcash 17 49 6 NAV Coin 117 18 31 BitConnect 17 194 7 Gnosis 115 (26) 32 GameCredits 17 (3) 8 Syscoin 106 24 33 DigiByte 14 (15) 9 Steem 96 23 34 Bitcoin 14 254 10 Dash 93 122 35 Lisk 13 17 11 Veritaseum 87 49 36 Factom 13 (21) 12 Rise 85 10 37 NEM 10 (13) 13 Vertcoin 76 864 38 Basic Attenti... 10 (16) 14 NEO 75 46 39 BitShares 10 56 15 Decred 70 53 40 FirstBlood 9 (2) 16 Edgeless 58 73 41 Augur 9 18 17 Status 52 75 42 Ethereum 8 53 18 Siacoin 51 32 43 Dogecoin 5 54 19 PIVX 45 26 44 Golem 4 (22) 20 Iconomi 43 (28) 45 Ubiq 3 (12) 21 Ardor 42 274 46 Bancor 1 7 22 Waves 33 75 47 Ripple (2) 16 23 Monero 31 116 48 Bytecoin (7) 39 24 Verge 25 17 49 Komodo (13) 0 25 Ethereum Classic 24 73 50 Litecoin (15) 50 Slide 40 Top 25 Win Ratio UV less DV 90 Day % Bottom 25 Win Ratio UV less DV 90 Day % 1 IOTA 53 138 638 1 Golem 44 4 (22) 2 Stellar Lumens 51 170 657 2 Ubiq 47 3 (12) 3 Rise 52 85 10 3 NEM 44 10 (13) 4 Vertcoin 52 76 864 4 Bancor 47 1 7 5 Ardor 56 42 274 5 Factom 47 13 (21) 6 NAV Coin 50 117 18 6 Basic Attenti... 47 10 (16) 7 BitConnect 57 17 194 7 MaidSafeCoin 46 17 (24) 8 Nxt 48 137 596 8 Byteball Bytes 46 18 (27) 9 Status 51 52 75 9 Iconomi 43 43 (28) 10 Bitcoin 61 14 254 10 GameCredits 47 17 (3) 11 Stratis 53 20 43 11 Bytecoin 52 (7) 39 12 Veritaseum 48 87 49 12 Lisk 49 13 17 13 Zcash 52 17 49 13 Edgeless 46 58 73 14 FirstBlood 57 9 (2) 14 BitShares 51 10 56 15 Waves 50 33 75 15 Ripple 52 (2) 16 16 Ark 51 21 49 16 Ethereum 51 8 53 17 Dash 47 93 122 17 Augur 51 9 18 18 Verge 50 25 17 18 Komodo 53 (13) 0 19 Steem 47 96 23 19 Litecoin 56 (15) 50 20 Decred 47 70 53 20 DigiByte 50 14 (15) 21 Dogecoin 57 5 54 21 Syscoin 44 106 24 22 Gnosis 47 115 (26) 22 PIVX 47 45 26 23 MCAP 46 145 (39) 23 Monero 48 31 116 24 Siacoin 48 51 32 24 Ethereum Classic 49 24 73 25 NEO 47 75 46 25 Triggers 43 219 (23) How to read this: The Leadership Ratio ranks the cryptocurrencies on the combined Win Ratio and Upside less Downside Volatility spread Win Ratio — 90 days Sorted high to low Upside Vol less downside Vol — 90 days Sorted high to low A B Leadership Ratio (avg of A + B) Sorted high to low Rank of A + B
  41. Slide 41 Overview Digital Trust Millennials driving change Crypto is an asset class Why Wall Street will care
  42. Slide 42 Figure: Comparative Profitability Estimates for Coinbase Profits to be made: Coinbase profitability may exceed ICE in 2018 Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Coinbase Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Est. sales 2017 >$1 billion $4.6 billion Est. profit margin 60% 35% Net profit $600mm $1.6 billion
  43. Slide 43 Figure: Market Cap of Country Stock Markets $ Cryptoassets are larger than most country equity markets… Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg Market Cap Crypto assets $550,000,000,000 Rank Country Name Market Cap 1 United States $27,352,200,720,000 2 China $7,320,738,379,789 3 Euro area $6,217,813,253,466 4 Japan $4,955,299,652,289 5 Hong Kong SAR, China $3,193,235,542,860 6 France $2,156,832,792,355 7 Canada $1,993,522,735,730 8 Germany $1,716,041,505,061 9 South Asia $1,585,359,261,547 10 India $1,566,680,487,701 11 Switzerland $1,403,355,611,193 12 Australia $1,268,493,506,774 13 Korea, Rep. $1,254,541,184,535 14 South Africa $951,320,328,604 15 Netherlands $854,349,119,294 16 Brazil $758,558,918,035 17 Spain $704,551,326,648 18 Singapore $640,427,546,857 19 Russian Federation $622,051,532,645 20 Saudi Arabia $448,831,069,542 21 Thailand $432,956,179,451 22 Indonesia $425,767,769,936 23 Belgium $377,756,548,791 24 Malaysia $359,788,303,781 25 Mexico $350,809,553,624 Ranks 26-100 $2,817,299,785,779 Total $71,728,582,616,286 Crypto assets $550,000,000,000 Almost same size as: Brazil Spain Singapore Russia Larger than: Ireland Spain Israel Greece Turkey Thailand Vietnam
  44. Slide 44 Crypto-currencies are simply not correlated to equities, bonds, gold, HF. Bitcoin FS CryptoFX 10 FS CryptoFX 40 FS CryptoFX 250 FS CryptoFX 300 FS CryptoFX Aggregate S&P 500 The US Dollar Index MSCI All World Index Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond Index Salient Risk Parity Index Bloomberg Comdty Total Return Index Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index Gold Oil Bitcoin 100 91 31 37 88 88 13 14 1 8 2 (17) 9 (9) (11) FS CryptoFX 10 100 54 55 100 100 11 4 5 10 1 (15) 11 (5) (7) FS CryptoFX 40 100 79 62 62 13 (3) 10 9 3 (0) 9 11 5 FS CryptoFX 250 100 62 62 5 (14) 10 16 1 (5) 16 17 (8) FS CryptoFX 300 100 100 12 3 7 11 1 (14) 11 (4) (7) FS CryptoFX Aggregate 100 12 3 7 11 1 (14) 11 (4) (7) S&P 500 100 23 69 (20) 16 (12) (22) (6) 3 The US Dollar Index 100 11 (17) (3) (26) (19) (45) (7) MSCI All World Index 100 (16) 28 (6) (18) 7 11 Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond Index 100 65 35 99 50 27 Salient Risk Parity Index 100 71 64 59 53 Bloomberg Comdty Total Return Index 100 35 63 67 Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index 100 50 26 Gold 100 27 Oil 100 Figure: FS Crypto FX Indices Correlation Matrix against Major Asset Classes (%) Based on the daily return of last 90 days Take a look at the correlation matrix below. What really stands out is that correlations to other asset classes is low. • Interesting to see the negative correlation to other commodities and perhaps this explains why CTAs and commodity funds seem to be earlier in looking at crypto.
  45. 12.4% 6.4% (11.5%) 2.0% (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 90Dcorrelation 6.1% 10.2% 6.4% 8.3% (9.0%) (7.6%) 18.2% 0.7% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 90Dcorrelation Slide 45 Crypto correlation to other asset classes is low and falling… Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Bloomberg, other sources and Fundstrat. Figure: 90D Rolling Correlation - Bitcoin & FS CryptoFX 10 Correlation against Major Asset Classes Over last 100 days Bitcoin FS CryptoFX 10 S&P 500 BBG US Agg Bond Idx Gold Salient Risk Parity Idx Bitcoin correlation to other asset classes is declining and continues to be negatively correlated to Gold—not surprising and evidence of cannibalization of demand for gold. Even looking at the top 10 tokens (which includes bitcoin), the correlation to other asset classes is quite low. When looking at rolling correlations of Bitcoin to other asset classes, the correlation is still low.
  46. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg, Updta $120.68 $128.54 $141.01 $168.89 $90 $180 10/2/2014 11/2/2014 12/2/2014 1/2/2015 2/2/2015 3/2/2015 4/2/2015 5/2/2015 6/2/2015 7/2/2015 8/2/2015 9/2/2015 10/2/2015 11/2/2015 12/2/2015 1/2/2016 2/2/2016 3/2/2016 4/2/2016 5/2/2016 6/2/2016 7/2/2016 8/2/2016 9/2/2016 10/2/2016 11/2/2016 12/2/2016 1/2/2017 2/2/2017 3/2/2017 4/2/2017 5/2/2017 6/2/2017 7/2/2017 8/2/2017 9/2/2017 Typical Conservative Moderate Bitcoin-plus Crypto 10 Figure: Performance metrics of various asset allocation portfolios with modest crypto-currency exposure Each portfolios rebalanced every 3-months. ENHANCED PORTFOLIO RETURN: Crypto adds return, boosts Sharpe-ratio Slide 46 To illustrate the positive effects from adding Crypto currencies to a portfolio, consider the performance of various portfolios below. • By adding even 2% to the portfolio (funded by reducing equities by 200bp), 3-yr annualized gains rise 226bp. Pushing this to 5% increases total return by 547bp, nearly doubling the return of a typical stock/bond blend. Ratio 3-yr Portfolio Performance Metrics Stocks / Bonds / Bitcoin / Crypto 10 Return CAGR Annualized Volatility Sharpe Ratio Maximum Drawdown Typical 60% / 40% / 0% / 0% 6.47% 7.38% 59% (7.9% ) Conservative 58% / 40% / 2% / 0% 8.73% 7.32% 91% (7.2% ) Moderate 55% / 40% / 5% / 0% 12.14% 7.86% 128% (7.4% ) Bitcoin-plus Crypto 10 50% / 40% / 5% / 5% 19.22% 9.54% 180% (8.0% )
  47. Disclosures This research is for the clients of Fundstrat Global Advisors only. For important disclosures and rating histories regarding sectors or companies that are the subject of this report, please contact your sales representative or Fundstrat Global Advisors at 150 East 52nd Street, New York, NY, 10022 USA. Analyst Certification (Reg AC) Thomas J. Lee, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research Conflicts of Interest This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Fundstrat. As of the time of writing and publication of this presentation, Fundstrat does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest at the time of the publication of this presentation. The Company has no contractual relationship, nor have we received any compensation from any of the companies listed in this research report. Analyst Industry/Sector Views Positive (+): The analyst expects the performance of his industry/sector coverage universe over the next 6-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, being the S&P 500 for North America. 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