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A Bio-economic Model
of Marine Recreational
Fisheries off
Washington and OregonNorthwest
Fisheries
Science Center
Megan Stachura, Leif Anderson, and Owen Hamel
December 11, 2015
Motivation
• Off the West Coast in 2013, more than 1.7 million recreational
anglers took part in an estimated 7.5 million fishing trips.
These anglers spent about $1.9 billion on fishing trips and
equipment, which supported over 21 thousand jobs
• Bring together biological and economic models to look at how
management affects recreational fishing behavior and
recreational fishing affects the stocks being fished
• Examine the effects of management on:
• Staying within target population ranges
• Economic value of the recreational fishery
• The recovery of depleted populations
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Related Research
• Bio-economic model of recreational cod and haddock
fisheries in the Northeast U.S. (Steinback et al.)
• Bio-economic model looked at how changes in water
quality may affect the Atlantic Coast summer flounder
recreational fishery (Massey et al., 2006)
• Theoretical recreational bio-economic modeling work
on the influence of fish life history, angler behavior,
discard mortality, and non-compliance on optimal
recreational fishery management (Johnston et al.,
2010, 2013, and 2015)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Model Overview
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Economic Sub-Model
Simulate Recreational
Fishing
Retained & Released
Recreational Catch
Biological Sub-Model
Angler Effort
Management
Model Focus
• Oregon and Washington, not including Puget Sound
• Marine groundfish and salmon recreational fisheries
• Boat (private and charter) recreational fishing, not
shore fishing
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Economic sub-model
• Built on data from a discrete choice experiment survey
conducted in 2007 in Washington and Oregon
• Simplified discrete choice experiment question:
• Which trip do you prefer?
• Would you prefer to take a trip or do something
else?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Trip A Trip B Trip C
Catch 1 1 2
Size 2 lb. 4 lb. 4 lb.
Cost $15 $30 $30
Economic sub-model
• Logit random utility model
• Anderson and Lee (2013)
• Anderson, Lee, and Levin (2013)
• Incorporates many of the trade-offs important to
anglers:
• Number of fish caught
• Size of fish caught
• Number of fish that can be kept
• Cost
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Economic sub-model
Biological sub-model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Initial
population
Number of
fish at age
Recruitment
Recreational
removals
Commercial
removals
Natural
mortality
Annually
2 Month
Waves
Biological sub-model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Initial
population
Number of
fish at age
Number of
fish at length
Recruitment
Recreational
removals
Commercial
removals
Natural
mortality
Retained and
dead discarded
fish
Simulate
recreational
fishing
Annually
2 Month
Waves
Biological sub-model
• Age-structured population dynamics model
• Completed for lingcod
• Planning to include black rockfish, yelloweye
rockfish, and canary rockfish
• For additional species, only modeling the recreational
catch based on catch from recent years
• Wild and hatchery chinook and coho salmon
• Pacific halibut
• Other rockfish
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Simulating “expected” catch for a trip
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Draw
number
of fish
caught
Draw fish
length
Greater than legal
minimum size?
Retain
Yes
No
Release
Reached
possession
limit?
NoYes
End
Reached
number of
fish
caught?
No
Yes
How many fishing trips will occur?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Expected catch
of all species
Economic sub-model
Utility of the trip
Utility of other options (e.g.,
river fishing, not fishing)
Probability the
trip occurs
Divide log utility of trip
by sum of log utility for
all options
Other trip characteristics
Total number of
trips of this type
taken
Simulating “actual” catch for a trip
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Draw
number
of fish
caught
Draw fish
length
Greater than legal
minimum size?
Retain
Yes
No
Release
Reached
possession
limit?
NoYes
End
Reached
number of
fish
caught?
No
Yes
How many fish are caught per trip?
• Modeled the catch-per-trip based on data from
observed recreational fishing trips
• Modeled each species, trip type, and area
separately
• Considered four possible models:
• Poisson
• Negative binomial
• Zero-inflated Poisson
• Zero-inflated negative binomial
• In most cases, the zero-inflated negative binomial was
chosen as the best model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Zero-inflated negative binomial model of catch-per-trip
• Probability of an inflated zero is modeled as a
binomial process with a logit link:
𝑝𝑝 =
𝑒𝑒(𝛼𝛼𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧+𝜷𝜷𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 𝑿𝑿𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧)
1 + 𝑒𝑒(𝛼𝛼𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧+𝜷𝜷𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 𝑿𝑿𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧)
• 𝛼𝛼𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 is the intercept
• 𝜷𝜷𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 is a vector of coefficients for the covariates
𝑿𝑿𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Zero-inflated negative binomial model of catch-per-trip
• When there is not an inflated zero, catch is modeled
as a negative binomial process with a log link, where
the mean catch-per-trip is:
𝜇𝜇 = 𝑎𝑎 × 𝑒𝑒 𝛼𝛼𝑐𝑐+𝜷𝜷𝑐𝑐 𝑿𝑿𝑐𝑐
• 𝑎𝑎 is the number of anglers on the trip (constant
offset)
• 𝛼𝛼𝑐𝑐 is the intercept
• 𝜷𝜷𝑐𝑐 is a vector of coefficients for the matrix of
covariates 𝑿𝑿𝑐𝑐
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Zero-inflated negative binomial model of catch-per-trip
• Same covariates considered for both the zero-inflated and
negative binomial portions of the model:
• Estimated number of fish available to the recreational
fishery
• Only for stocks for which the population dynamics are
modeled
• Calculated based on the number of fish in the population and
recreational selectivity by length
• Boat type: charter or private
• Two month “wave”
• Estuary or ocean trip (Oregon only)
• Two-way interactions of boat type, wave, and
estuary/ocean
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Variable Est. S.E.
(Intercept) 1.672 0.146***
log(LingcodAvailable) -0.502 0.021***
BoatTypePrivate 0.974 0.031***
(Intercept) -2.053 0.061***
log(LingcodAvailable) 0.312 0.008***
Wave3 -0.414 0.026***
Wave4 -0.712 0.028***
Wave5 -0.923 0.039***
BoatTypePrivate 0.179 0.030***
Wave3:BoatTypePrivate -0.185 0.032***
Wave4:BoatTypePrivate -0.187 0.035***
Wave5:BoatTypePrivate 0.073 0.050
Log(theta) -0.157 0.013***
Negative binomial model coefficients
Zero-inflation model coefficients
Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
Next steps
• Finish incorporating the catch-per-trip modeling into
the bio-economic model
• Incorporate the full age-structured model for
additional stocks
• Calibrate the number of “potential” trips (angler
choice occasions) so the number of model
predicted trips taken is similar to what has been
observed under similar conditions
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Next steps
• Examine what occurs under different management
measures
• Bag limits
• Size limits
• Open/closed seasons
• Simulate changes in catch rates for stocks we are
not modeling (e.g. poor salmon returns) and see
how that affects angler effort and other stocks
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Potential future improvements
• Include California stocks and fisheries in the model
once information is available from an updated
economic survey
• Incorporate information from fully observed fishing
trips (Oregon onboard charter survey)
• Account for changes in behavior with changes in
regulations in modeling catch-per-trip
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27

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A Bio-economic Model of Marine Recreational Fisheries off Washington and Oregon

  • 1. A Bio-economic Model of Marine Recreational Fisheries off Washington and OregonNorthwest Fisheries Science Center Megan Stachura, Leif Anderson, and Owen Hamel December 11, 2015
  • 2. Motivation • Off the West Coast in 2013, more than 1.7 million recreational anglers took part in an estimated 7.5 million fishing trips. These anglers spent about $1.9 billion on fishing trips and equipment, which supported over 21 thousand jobs • Bring together biological and economic models to look at how management affects recreational fishing behavior and recreational fishing affects the stocks being fished • Examine the effects of management on: • Staying within target population ranges • Economic value of the recreational fishery • The recovery of depleted populations U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 3. Related Research • Bio-economic model of recreational cod and haddock fisheries in the Northeast U.S. (Steinback et al.) • Bio-economic model looked at how changes in water quality may affect the Atlantic Coast summer flounder recreational fishery (Massey et al., 2006) • Theoretical recreational bio-economic modeling work on the influence of fish life history, angler behavior, discard mortality, and non-compliance on optimal recreational fishery management (Johnston et al., 2010, 2013, and 2015) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 4. Model Overview U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Economic Sub-Model Simulate Recreational Fishing Retained & Released Recreational Catch Biological Sub-Model Angler Effort Management
  • 5. Model Focus • Oregon and Washington, not including Puget Sound • Marine groundfish and salmon recreational fisheries • Boat (private and charter) recreational fishing, not shore fishing U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 6. Economic sub-model • Built on data from a discrete choice experiment survey conducted in 2007 in Washington and Oregon • Simplified discrete choice experiment question: • Which trip do you prefer? • Would you prefer to take a trip or do something else? U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Trip A Trip B Trip C Catch 1 1 2 Size 2 lb. 4 lb. 4 lb. Cost $15 $30 $30
  • 7.
  • 8. Economic sub-model • Logit random utility model • Anderson and Lee (2013) • Anderson, Lee, and Levin (2013) • Incorporates many of the trade-offs important to anglers: • Number of fish caught • Size of fish caught • Number of fish that can be kept • Cost U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 10. Biological sub-model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Initial population Number of fish at age Recruitment Recreational removals Commercial removals Natural mortality Annually 2 Month Waves
  • 11. Biological sub-model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Initial population Number of fish at age Number of fish at length Recruitment Recreational removals Commercial removals Natural mortality Retained and dead discarded fish Simulate recreational fishing Annually 2 Month Waves
  • 12. Biological sub-model • Age-structured population dynamics model • Completed for lingcod • Planning to include black rockfish, yelloweye rockfish, and canary rockfish • For additional species, only modeling the recreational catch based on catch from recent years • Wild and hatchery chinook and coho salmon • Pacific halibut • Other rockfish U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 13. Simulating “expected” catch for a trip U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Draw number of fish caught Draw fish length Greater than legal minimum size? Retain Yes No Release Reached possession limit? NoYes End Reached number of fish caught? No Yes
  • 14. How many fishing trips will occur? U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Expected catch of all species Economic sub-model Utility of the trip Utility of other options (e.g., river fishing, not fishing) Probability the trip occurs Divide log utility of trip by sum of log utility for all options Other trip characteristics Total number of trips of this type taken
  • 15. Simulating “actual” catch for a trip U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Draw number of fish caught Draw fish length Greater than legal minimum size? Retain Yes No Release Reached possession limit? NoYes End Reached number of fish caught? No Yes
  • 16. How many fish are caught per trip? • Modeled the catch-per-trip based on data from observed recreational fishing trips • Modeled each species, trip type, and area separately • Considered four possible models: • Poisson • Negative binomial • Zero-inflated Poisson • Zero-inflated negative binomial • In most cases, the zero-inflated negative binomial was chosen as the best model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 17. Zero-inflated negative binomial model of catch-per-trip • Probability of an inflated zero is modeled as a binomial process with a logit link: 𝑝𝑝 = 𝑒𝑒(𝛼𝛼𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧+𝜷𝜷𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 𝑿𝑿𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧) 1 + 𝑒𝑒(𝛼𝛼𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧+𝜷𝜷𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 𝑿𝑿𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧) • 𝛼𝛼𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 is the intercept • 𝜷𝜷𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 is a vector of coefficients for the covariates 𝑿𝑿𝑧𝑧𝑧𝑧 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 18. Zero-inflated negative binomial model of catch-per-trip • When there is not an inflated zero, catch is modeled as a negative binomial process with a log link, where the mean catch-per-trip is: 𝜇𝜇 = 𝑎𝑎 × 𝑒𝑒 𝛼𝛼𝑐𝑐+𝜷𝜷𝑐𝑐 𝑿𝑿𝑐𝑐 • 𝑎𝑎 is the number of anglers on the trip (constant offset) • 𝛼𝛼𝑐𝑐 is the intercept • 𝜷𝜷𝑐𝑐 is a vector of coefficients for the matrix of covariates 𝑿𝑿𝑐𝑐 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 19. Zero-inflated negative binomial model of catch-per-trip • Same covariates considered for both the zero-inflated and negative binomial portions of the model: • Estimated number of fish available to the recreational fishery • Only for stocks for which the population dynamics are modeled • Calculated based on the number of fish in the population and recreational selectivity by length • Boat type: charter or private • Two month “wave” • Estuary or ocean trip (Oregon only) • Two-way interactions of boat type, wave, and estuary/ocean U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 20. Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Variable Est. S.E. (Intercept) 1.672 0.146*** log(LingcodAvailable) -0.502 0.021*** BoatTypePrivate 0.974 0.031*** (Intercept) -2.053 0.061*** log(LingcodAvailable) 0.312 0.008*** Wave3 -0.414 0.026*** Wave4 -0.712 0.028*** Wave5 -0.923 0.039*** BoatTypePrivate 0.179 0.030*** Wave3:BoatTypePrivate -0.185 0.032*** Wave4:BoatTypePrivate -0.187 0.035*** Wave5:BoatTypePrivate 0.073 0.050 Log(theta) -0.157 0.013*** Negative binomial model coefficients Zero-inflation model coefficients
  • 21. Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
  • 22. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
  • 23. Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
  • 24. Washington bottomfish trip lingcod catch-per-trip model
  • 25. Next steps • Finish incorporating the catch-per-trip modeling into the bio-economic model • Incorporate the full age-structured model for additional stocks • Calibrate the number of “potential” trips (angler choice occasions) so the number of model predicted trips taken is similar to what has been observed under similar conditions U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 26. Next steps • Examine what occurs under different management measures • Bag limits • Size limits • Open/closed seasons • Simulate changes in catch rates for stocks we are not modeling (e.g. poor salmon returns) and see how that affects angler effort and other stocks U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Northwest Fisheries Science Center
  • 27. Potential future improvements • Include California stocks and fisheries in the model once information is available from an updated economic survey • Incorporate information from fully observed fishing trips (Oregon onboard charter survey) • Account for changes in behavior with changes in regulations in modeling catch-per-trip U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27